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Some trends/takeaways through the first ten games of the season. I have removed Payton, Afflalo, Iwundu and Birch from the rankings since they haven't played enough minutes.

NET RATING
Vucevic +12.5
Augustin +12.5
Ross +10.8
Fournier +10.6
Gordon +6.4
Speights +6.1
Simmons +2.9
Isaac +2.0
Mack -6.9
Hezonja -13.3
Biyombo -13.7

OBPM
Speights 7.6
Fournier 4.4
Gordon 3.9
Augustin 2.6
Vucevic 1.9
Simmons 0.7
Hezonja -1.3
Mack -1.4
Isaac -2.1
Ross -4.3
Biyombo -8.2

DBPM
Isaac 2.8
Vucevic 1.5
Gordon 1.1
Ross 0.6
Fournier -0.5
Biyombo -0.5
Hezonja -0.7
Augustin -0.9
Mack -1.2
Simmons -1.3
Speights -3.4

BPM
Gordon 5.0
Speights 4.2
Fournier 3.9
Vucevic 3.5
Augustin 1.7
Isaac 0.7
Simmons -0.7
Hezonja -2.0
Mack -2.6
Ross -3.8
Biyombo -8.7

FIVE LINEUPS THAT WORK
Augustin-Ross-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic +25.9 NETRTG in 66 minutes
Augustin-Ross-Fournier-Isaac-Vucevic +33.0 NETRTG in 25 minutes
Payton-Ross-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic +31.8 NETRTG in 20 minutes
Mack-Simmons-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic +52.2 NETRTG in 12 minutes
Simmons-Fournier-Isaac-Gordon-Vucevic +19.6 NETRTG in 11 minutes

FIVE LINEUPS THAT DO NOT WORK
Mack-Ross-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic -15.4 NETRTG in 36 minutes
Augustin-Simmons-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic -20.2 NETRTG in 21 minutes
Mack-Simmons-Hezonja-Isaac-Biyombo -43.6 NETRTG in 17 minutes
Mack-Ross-Fournier-Isaac-Vucevic -24.1 NETRTG in 11 minutes
Payton-Simmons-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic -24.8 in 10 minutes

TAKEAWAYS
-Bismack Biyombo is somehow worse than he was last season and needs to lose minutes to Mo Speights
It's early, but this is the worst Biyombo has ever played. Last year his defense was solid and his offense was poor. This year? His defense is below average and his offense has completely cratered. Of all players playing at least 10 minutes per game, Biyombo has statistically been the worst offensive player in the NBA. Speights is a terrible defensive player, but his ability to make threes and stretch the floor with the second unit outweighs anything Biyombo brings defensively.

-Jonathon Simmons has been more than advertised offensively, less than advertised defensively
Simmons pretty much looks like the player he was in last year's playoffs. He's a ball stopper offensively, but he plays hard and has proven to be quite effective in isolation which is a skill set this team really lacks. Unfortunately, and this tends to happen when players take a larger share of the offensive burden, his defense has slipped.

-Jonathan Isaac is the best defender on the team, but has a long way to go offensively
Isaac's defensive instincts are off the charts. Not only is he long, quick and athletic, but he understands positioning, he provides good help defense, he blocks shots and he gets his hands on deflections. He's a very advanced defensive player for a 20 year old that clearly lacks strength. On top of all that, he's provides additional value with his good rebounding. Offensively... he's a little bit of a mess. His ball handling is very poor, which pretty much limits him to garbage points (O boards, transition), spot ups and one-dribble pull ups. Unfortunately, those jab step pull ups means Isaac is taking a lot of shots in the 16-23 feet range, which is the least efficient shot in all of basketball. His FT stroke makes me optimistic about his long-term future as a shooter.

-Aaron Gordon is making the leap
Much like Isaac, Gordon's ball handling is still suspect... but everything else? Strong! He's dramatically overhauled his three point shot, using the hop instead of the 1-2 step, and the results are fantastic (19-34) to open the season. Obviously there will be SOME regression, but when you also factor in his FT% is up 7% and is now approaching 80% - I'm quickly becoming a believer in his shooting. Gordon's also rebounding, passing and defending better than ever before. His PER 36 numbers - 22.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.0 BPG - are terrific. He's pretty much just improved ball handling away from being a legitimate superstar.

-Starting lineups featuring Payton or Augustin have been fantastic. We need them healthy!
All versions of the starting lineup that feature Payton (super tempo) or Augustin (super shooting) have been really excellent. Ideally we can get Payton back on Wednesday and Augustin back in another 7-10 days and it will have a trickle down effect with the bench. Anything that gets Mack and Biyombo off the floor is critical.

-Mario Hezonja has been bad, but the Magic may not have a better option right now
If the Magic want to play 10 players, and Vogel has given no indication that isn't the case, then it seems like Mario is going to be one of the 10 guys. The only other solution is to use Isaac as the backup SF and use Speights as the backup PF alongside Biyombo, but I'd rather get Biyombo off the court than Mario. The only other in-house options, Afflalo and Iwundu, have both been worse than Mario, albeit in garbage time.

Man, afflalo’s game has dropped quite fast.

Great write up Knightro, thanks for the effort. The numbers just confirm what I’ve been seeing with my eye balls, Biz is a legitimate bust this year.

Also, 10 games in a Ross has provided zero efficient offense. How much longer does he deserve a spot in the starting lineup?

Great analysis! I agree that there needs to be less PT for Biz and Mario, more for Speights, and can't wait to have our PG back.

Despite the last two games, this team has surpassed expectation for the beginning of the season. I'm really looking forward to seeing what we can do with a fully healthy squad and Speights/Birch in the rotation. Vogel needs to look into giving Iwundu some minutes over Mario. Iwundu at least rebounds, hustles and plays tough D. Its only a matter of time.

What I got out of this was: DJ provin em all wrong!!!

Great job Knightro!

Bismack Biyombo is somehow worse than he was last season and needs to lose minutes to Mo Speights
It's early, but this is the worst Biyombo has ever played. Last year his defense was solid and his offense was poor. This year? His defense is below average and his offense has completely cratered. Of all players playing at least 10 minutes per game, Biyombo has statistically been the worst offensive player in the NBA. Speights is a terrible defensive player, but his ability to make threes and stretch the floor with the second unit outweighs anything Biyombo brings defensively.

I'd say his disappointing defense is a continuation from last season... he was only good for like the first month and then went downhill quickly from there. His offense is really bad for our second unit.... you can't pass to him and his defender ignores him, which makes the game harder for his teammates. Thank god for Simmons. I want to see Speights play with Simmons and Isaac. If Biz isn't going to give us good defense then we might as well try to put up points against other bench units.

Worst offensive player in the league title has to belong to Ross right now. 9.7 fga per game playing 28 mpg... 8.5 ppg on 30% fg and 24% 3pt, 1.5/1.4 ast:tov. I don't expect him to be this bad all season, but he's looking like Marble right now.

Nice write up Knightro. Very impressed with AG thus far and hoping Elf demonstrates a similar leap. AG just needs to keep putting work in on the handle.

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I dont agree Isaac has a long way to go offensively. Hes already very capable on that end. Great shooter. Good lob target. Can hit a jumper off the dribble. Even as he is now he is a valuable piece simply as a floor spacer.

shadrock wrote:I dont agree Isaac has a long way to go offensively. Hes already very capable on that end. Great shooter. Good lob target. Can hit a jumper off the dribble. Even as he is now he is a valuable piece simply as a floor spacer.

Well first of all, you didn't address his complete lack of handle, which was my biggest point in saying Isaac has a long way to go offensively.

Second, Isaac is not a great shooter yet. His FT stroke is very encouraging, but he's only shooting 31% from three and 28% from 16-23 feet.

The real problem for Isaac right now is shot selection. Since his handle is so weak, he takes a TON of 16-23 foot jumpers, a lot of them off the dribble. Right now, 28% of shots are long twos which is overwhelmingly the worst shot in all of basketball efficiency wise.

Much like Gordon, Isaac's long-term ceiling as an offensive player really rests on his ability to improve his handle. I'm very confident he'll improve his jumper over time.

shadrock wrote:I dont agree Isaac has a long way to go offensively. Hes already very capable on that end. Great shooter. Good lob target. Can hit a jumper off the dribble. Even as he is now he is a valuable piece simply as a floor spacer.

Probably the best thing about garbage time against the top defense/record team was seeing Isaac take a nice drive and score. I definitely hope we get a little selfish and push him to dribble and attack more. I agree his shot looks good.

And awesome write up Knightro.

I don't think AG's handle is the problem. He has a nice handle. It's his balance. He gets off balance trying to attack off the dribble and therefore loses explosion and can't get past the defender or finish strong at the rim. I've seen him stay on balance and attack before, so I do think he is capable of it.

MagicStarwipe wrote:I don't think AG's handle is the problem. He has a nice handle. It's his balance. He gets off balance trying to attack off the dribble and therefore loses explosion and can't get past the defender or finish strong at the rim. I've seen him stay on balance and attack before, so I do think he is capable of it.

"Handle" is kind of a catch-all phrase in this sense. It's not necessarily a reflection of actual dribbling skill. Gordon's comfortable getting a rebound and dribbling coast-to-coast for instance.

For the purpose of this discussion, when I say handle, I'm really referring to the ability to consistently beat defenders 1 on 1 on the dribble drive. Things like balance and explosion would fall into that.

Nice write up dude.

I’d like to give Ross’ defense a nod. I think him, along with Simmons and Isaac, are really helping to change the defensive culture of the team. Having guys who aren’t afraid to try and put the clamps on an opposing team’s best player is pretty refreshing, and you see that influence guys like Vuc who’s now chasing Irving out to the 3pt line and stopping him right there.

Bensational wrote:Nice write up dude.

I’d like to give Ross’ defense a nod. I think him, along with Simmons and Isaac, are really helping to change the defensive culture of the team. Having guys who aren’t afraid to try and put the clamps on an opposing team’s best player is pretty refreshing, and you see that influence guys like Vuc who’s now chasing Irving out to the 3pt line and stopping him right there.

Agreed, just hoping to see T Ross make some buckets now too.

Knightro wrote:

shadrock wrote:I dont agree Isaac has a long way to go offensively. Hes already very capable on that end. Great shooter. Good lob target. Can hit a jumper off the dribble. Even as he is now he is a valuable piece simply as a floor spacer.

Well first of all, you didn't address his complete lack of handle, which was my biggest point in saying Isaac has a long way to go offensively.

Second, Isaac is not a great shooter yet. His FT stroke is very encouraging, but he's only shooting 31% from three and 28% from 16-23 feet.

The real problem for Isaac right now is shot selection. Since his handle is so weak, he takes a TON of 16-23 foot jumpers, a lot of them off the dribble. Right now, 28% of shots are long twos which is overwhelmingly the worst shot in all of basketball efficiency wise.

Much like Gordon, Isaac's long-term ceiling as an offensive player really rests on his ability to improve his handle. I'm very confident he'll improve his jumper over time.

Well i absolutely disagree he has no handle. I actually think his handle has been pretty good. For comparisons sake, i see it as being FAR supreior already to the handle of Mario or even someone like Moe Harkless. Im not sure why some think he has no handle at all.

So Hezonja is 7th in offensvie and defensive box plus minus?
Few people pull up for more PT for Speights, guy is only useful if he is number one option on offense because his defense was always terrible. His usage rate in past few years was over 25% and for most teams he was both offensive and defensive box plus minus. I don't belive that he got awesome at age of 30 at playing basketball. In other words, you know once you pass him a ball that you won't get it back. Is that better than watching Biyombo ? Meh, maybe ?! But it's not a given like people like to think.

shadrock wrote:

Knightro wrote:

shadrock wrote:I dont agree Isaac has a long way to go offensively. Hes already very capable on that end. Great shooter. Good lob target. Can hit a jumper off the dribble. Even as he is now he is a valuable piece simply as a floor spacer.

Well first of all, you didn't address his complete lack of handle, which was my biggest point in saying Isaac has a long way to go offensively.

Second, Isaac is not a great shooter yet. His FT stroke is very encouraging, but he's only shooting 31% from three and 28% from 16-23 feet.

The real problem for Isaac right now is shot selection. Since his handle is so weak, he takes a TON of 16-23 foot jumpers, a lot of them off the dribble. Right now, 28% of shots are long twos which is overwhelmingly the worst shot in all of basketball efficiency wise.

Much like Gordon, Isaac's long-term ceiling as an offensive player really rests on his ability to improve his handle. I'm very confident he'll improve his jumper over time.

Well i absolutely disagree he has no handle. I actually think his handle has been pretty good. For comparisons sake, i see it as being FAR supreior already to the handle of Mario or even someone like Moe Harkless. Im not sure why some think he has no handle at all.

This is complete bias imo. I watched so far pretty much every single min of Magic 2017-18 season and i can't recall one play where he took somebody off dribble and attacked. It's always dribble pull up mid range ( 40% of all his FGA are mid range ) ,spot up 3 (28% of all FGA 3s) or transition/garbage points from rebounds. In general he only scores 6 points a game , given that he made only 4 threes so far.

I went to NBA.com to pick up some fact/stats

Isaac scored 0 points in situations where he had 7 or more dribbles
He scored once when he had 3 to 6 dribbles (1-3)
He is 3-8 FG ( for 2 only ) when he takes 2 dribbles
He is 4-10 FG from situations where he takes 1 dribble
He is 13-23 FG in situations from 0 dribbles

So, as my eye test told me, he has no handles. Probably because he is too tall and too skinny so others can push him and pick his pocket. But that's not big problem to me ( mostly because i belive he is future PF-C more than SF )

Knightro wrote:-Starting lineups featuring Payton or Augustin have been fantastic. We need them healthy!

Felt that needed emphasis.

-Mario Hezonja has been bad, but the Magic may not have a better option right now

I do believe the Magic must target a SF overhaul in the off-season. Either Ross goes to the bench with a FA brought in. Or a major trade needs to revamp the whole of the wings.


For now the Magic really should just put out Payton/Fournier/Simmons/Gordon/Vučević and see what happens.


..

pepe1991 wrote:

shadrock wrote:Well i absolutely disagree he has no handle. I actually think his handle has been pretty good. For comparisons sake, i see it as being FAR supreior already to the handle of Mario or even someone like Moe Harkless. Im not sure why some think he has no handle at all.

This is complete bias imo. I watched so far pretty much every single min of Magic 2017-18 season and i can't recall one play where he took somebody off dribble and attacked. It's always dribble pull up mid range ( 40% of all his FGA are mid range ) ,spot up 3 (28% of all FGA 3s) or transition/garbage points from rebounds. In general he only scores 6 points a game , given that he made only 4 threes so far.

I went to NBA.com to pick up some fact/stats

Isaac scored 0 points in situations where he had 7 or more dribbles
He scored once when he had 3 to 6 dribbles (1-3)
He is 3-8 FG ( for 2 only ) when he takes 2 dribbles
He is 4-10 FG from situations where he takes 1 dribble
He is 13-23 FG in situations from 0 dribbles

So, as my eye test told me, he has no handles. Probably because he is too tall and too skinny so others can push him and pick his pocket. But that's not big problem to me ( mostly because i belive he is future PF-C more than SF )

Great stats here.

Don't get me wrong here Shadrock, I *love* what I've seen from Isaac so far. I think he's going to be a guy who contributes to winning basketball even if literally the only he does is become great at the things he's already good at (defense, rebounding, spot shooting).

A 3&D player who also rebounds at a high level is a very unique skill set.

But when over 70% of the kid's field goal attempts in his first 10 games have come with 0 or 1 dribbles, it's an obvious sign that he either A. isn't comfortable putting the ball on the floor, B. not capable of getting around people with the dribble or C. a combination of both.

Again, this isn't a knock. It's simply an observation. Isaac is SO young and so good at other things that it isn't really a cause for concern.