Elfrid Payton just doesn't make players better

[Xatticus]

One stat which I’ve always thought was lacking was a ‘consistency stat’. As in, how much a player’s game to game performance fluctuates over or under their average, and over how many games. I’ve tried to figure out a way to calculate it before but could never crack it. I feel like that would be interesting to see.

Definitely doable - you'd just have to determine what categories are considered within the realm of 'consistency'. Or you could go category by category. Bar chart the individual stats per game with the season or career average as a line running across. Voila.

Yeah, a few years ago I set up a spreadsheet which measured each game’s fluctuation from the average, which gave me a + or - result. But then I never knew what to do with that number. Obviously if you add them all up you get 0 again since it all points back to the average anyway. Then I wondered if there was any value in giving compound value to ‘streaks’ of positive of negative games. I just wanted to try boil it down to one simple number. But maybe it needs to be a visual graph?

Yeah. It really wouldn't be difficult to do and I'm sure there are nerds in NBA stat departments that do track it, but the information isn't readily available to us. It's just variance and standard deviation, which is pretty basic stuff in statistics.

Edit: This is a link to show you how to do it:
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html

[MagicStarwipe]

For the record, I did expect more out of Payton after his rookie season. But I also understand that this has been probably the worst situation for a young developing player in the league. I think Elfrid has lost a bit of his explosiveness that he had in his rookie season due to bulking up. He dunked the ball quite a lot for a PG as a rookie, including a couple of huge putbacks. But the offset of that is he has improved his strength and finishes better through contact now (without getting any whistles much to my dismay). Having said all of that, he has still proven that he is a good player and is improving.

[EasternMagic]

For the record, I did expect more out of Payton after his rookie season. But I also understand that this has been probably the worst situation for a young developing player in the league. I think Elfrid has lost a bit of his explosiveness that he had in his rookie season due to bulking up. He dunked the ball quite a lot for a PG as a rookie, including a couple of huge putbacks. But the offset of that is he has improved his strength and finishes better through contact now (without getting any whistles much to my dismay). Having said all of that, he has still proven that he is a good player and is improving.

Elfrid is probably the one fringe player I have the hardest time throwing in the towel on. When he's good, he looks like a bonafide starting PG. He just gets lost out there sometimes. Still worth noting that he's 23, the same age that we gave up on Oladipo and Harris. You can't compare apples to oranges and those two have thrived in what are completely different environments to what we have here in ORL, sure, but seeing how they have progressed has to make management take a pause, at least.

Evan Fournier is 25, and I really do like him as a player, but I think we know what we're getting from Evan. And on any playoff caliber team in the association I kind of doubt that he ends up averaging 18 ppg.

This is also the best argument, imo, for paying AG this offseason. He's 22 and, even though there have been some inconsistencies, he's had a breakthrough this year. And I think that if you ask any NBA fan in the league if they'd rather have Tobias or Aaron, they're going to say, Aaron.

I won't be upset if Elfrid is still on the roster after the trade deadline, but if he is, I hope he gives us a reason to resign him and pray that other teams don't throw huge numbers at him this offseason. Especially if we draft Doncic or another forward.

[Xatticus]

Definitely doable - you'd just have to determine what categories are considered within the realm of 'consistency'. Or you could go category by category. Bar chart the individual stats per game with the season or career average as a line running across. Voila.

Yeah, a few years ago I set up a spreadsheet which measured each game’s fluctuation from the average, which gave me a + or - result. But then I never knew what to do with that number. Obviously if you add them all up you get 0 again since it all points back to the average anyway. Then I wondered if there was any value in giving compound value to ‘streaks’ of positive of negative games. I just wanted to try boil it down to one simple number. But maybe it needs to be a visual graph?

Yeah. It really wouldn't be difficult to do and I'm sure there are nerds in NBA stat departments that do track it, but the information isn't readily available to us. It's just variance and standard deviation, which is pretty basic stuff in statistics.

Edit: This is a link to show you how to do it:
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html

This is a link for a site that will automate the process for you:
http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/variance/

The link is for the variance calculator, but you will see that there are options for a lot of different operations. You just have to input the data in comma-delimited format.

[MagicStarwipe]

I know he doesn't take a lot, but surely Payton deserves SOME credit for improving his 3pt% to 40% now? His FT% is also on the rise.

[Bensational]

I know he doesn't take a lot, but surely Payton deserves SOME credit for improving his 3pt% to 40% now? His FT% is also on the rise.

Lol. You’re just opening pandora’s box by asking this board to give Payton any credit.

I’d like to see him get more confident in his shot and start jacking like Gordon. The upshot is we could see if he can sustain it over volume, and if he doesn’t, it’d piss a lot of people on the board off. Win win!

[Skybox]

Payton, Evan, Vuc...there's a part of me that wants to see each of them as the sole survivor on a very different looking Magic team. You can't tell from here (honestly) who is the chemistry-killer. It always seems Payton's barking at everybody (like a PG leader must)...perhaps the "keepers" are the dummies who aren't cutting or going where they're supposed to ...so it only looks like EP is pounding the ball and being revealed as a non-shooter? When they run, he's exciting.

[Statlanta]

I know he doesn't take a lot, but surely Payton deserves SOME credit for improving his 3pt% to 40% now? His FT% is also on the rise.

I do agree that he has improved but it's like crediting Draymond for his percentage. Like it's the least threatening shot to give up in the starting lineup.

[pepe1991]

For him it's Suns, Magic ( maybe Bulls ) or bust as a starting level PG ,with both teams having chance to draft future PG in 2018.

It will be interesting to see how Magic will handle him in FA.
There is still chance that he gets traded before deadline .

His career would look different if he played in early 00s where pass first PGs had higher value , opposite of now where most teams try to avoid ball dominant players if they are not megastars.

[drsd]

I’d like to see him get more confident in his shot and start jacking like Gordon. The upshot is we could see if he can sustain it over volume, and if he doesn’t, it’d piss a lot of people on the board off. Win win!

If Payton is not traded, then yes - why not have him play Hero-ball and see what results.


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[drsd]

Payton, Evan, Vuc...there's a part of me that wants to see each of them as the sole survivor on a very different looking Magic team. You can't tell from here (honestly) who is the chemistry-killer. It always seems Payton's barking at everybody (like a PG leader must)...perhaps the "keepers" are the dummies who aren't cutting or going where they're supposed to ...so it only looks like EP is pounding the ball and being revealed as a non-shooter? When they run, he's exciting.

If Orlando is targeting Young, then the Magic could be looking at a roster that only retains Vučević, Gordon and Isaac.

If the Magic targets Dončić, then Fournier is gone, and either Payton or Vučević could be shipped off as well.

I see no path to the Magic retaining Fournier. Certainly the idea of trading both Payton and Vučević to retain Fournier with Isaac and Gordon doesn't really make a great deal of sense, to me.


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[NBlue]

EP has now crept up to 12th among pg's in PER -- tied with Eric Bledsoe at 18.14. I realize that creates a massive cognitive dissonance with the rest of this thread but...

[Skybox]

Payton, Evan, Vuc...there's a part of me that wants to see each of them as the sole survivor on a very different looking Magic team. You can't tell from here (honestly) who is the chemistry-killer. It always seems Payton's barking at everybody (like a PG leader must)...perhaps the "keepers" are the dummies who aren't cutting or going where they're supposed to ...so it only looks like EP is pounding the ball and being revealed as a non-shooter? When they run, he's exciting.

If Orlando is targeting Young, then the Magic could be looking at a roster that only retains Vučević, Gordon and Isaac.

If the Magic targets Dončić, then Fournier is gone, and either Payton or Vučević could be shipped off as well.

I see no path to the Magic retaining Fournier. Certainly the idea of trading both Payton and Vučević to retain Fournier with Isaac and Gordon doesn't really make a great deal of sense, to me.


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Fournier's skill set complements Gordon and Isaac...it's just not clear if it's a personality thing or the other players on the team causing the dissonance. If they can co-exist, that would be optimal...I'm also assuming Evan is gone if his $17mil doesn't hinder the return.

Targeting means nothing until the lottery chips fall and there's always the threat of a draft-day trade that grabs "your" guy with a higher pick. We'll see.

[drsd]

Targeting means nothing until the lottery chips fall and there's always the threat of a draft-day trade that grabs "your" guy with a higher pick. We'll see.

The logic here is to play out the year and then trade the vets in the Summer.

I see Fournier traded before the deadline, no matter what. It is the easiest way to get back assets whilst maximising the Tank.


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