Why we have to start a rebuild - Orlando Magic Cap situation

[Incognito76]

It seems to me that most of the fans don't really understand that the only franchise in the league that is in worse situation than Magic is Nets as we don't have talent but our cap situation won't allow as to sign any good talent in FA either. Many teams currently in lottery like Kings, Suns, Hawks are bad but will have 20 or more mil of cap space this summer and next summer if they choose to. They can sign FA with cap space, or take on bad contracts (Biyombo?) in return for picks and young players.

We don't have players on good contracts that could be traded for better players either. We can get nothing for Biyombo, Vucevic can get us late late first at best without taking on bad salary (which is imposibble for us without going into luxary tax for 30 win team), Fournier can get us maybe 20-25th pick or 2 2nd rounders. So the only players that we could get something for in the next 3 years are Gordon and possibly Isaac who could prove that he has value but it is still to early.

So our only chance to improve and reach PLAYOFF (not championship level, it is beyond wildest dreams) level team status in the next 4-5 years is if we give up on this team and decide that we will tank this year, next year and maybe even year after as with this team on this salaries we simply cannot be more than 35 win team and it will stay this way untill our cap situation clears. This is why every win with this current roster puts is in a DARK hole as it drops our draft value but also dosn't improve much value of our current players-who are simply bad or avarage but paid as a allstars.

This is website where you can check cap sitation for NBA team - you can play around abit with it - accept player options, team options, renounce FA, sign FA.... http://www.shamsports.com/capulator

This is what I came up with - http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=9435104335a918c40cf14f781635881

I made it so that we have 5th pick every year which is around 6 mil, signed Gordon to 5/146 mil and Vucevic 4/68 (which is too low imo).

Next year we are over the cap, 4.2 mil less then luxary tax - without Mario Hezonja (so I guess this is the real reason he was not extended!!!).

2019/2020 we have salary of 111 mil in 10 players while cap is 108 mil.

2020/2021 we have salary of 94 mil in 7 players while cap is 113 mil.

So whatever we do Orlando Magic won't be playoff team untill at least season 2021/2022. Question is will our GM and owner admit that and tank and do what is necessary to be a good team or will we try to ''fake it till you don't make it''.
Main reason why I wrote all this is because many Magic fans are not knowledgeable and are still acting as games that are won mean something - they do - they are negative for future of the team. It is not just about today, it is about next 2,3,4,5,6 years. I personally believe if Magic ownership allows themselfs to be stuck in 30-40 win season for the next 5-6 years, team will be sold as it won't be profitable and noone will be intrested in watching this team.

[Airgordon00]

I agree with a lot of what you said. Now would we be in favor of some blockbuster deals this offseason to acquire some star talent looking for a new start. A example of this could be sign and trade Aaron Gordon to the wizards for John wall. Then follow it up by trading vooch, Mack, Isaac and our 2018 first for Anthony Davis. Or if New Orleans doesn’t want to trade Davis yet we could try to trade Fournier, Issac and our 2018 first for Kawhi Leonard.

Obviously some fans might not be in favor of trading Gordon, Isaac and our 2018 first, but if we could turn those into a combo of wall/Davis and/or Wall/Leonard I would be really tempted because we know they are great players.

Thoughts?






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[OrlandO]

Imagine if we spent $24 million per year on good players instead of on Biyombo and Augustin...

[Airgordon00]

Imagine if we spent $24 million per year on good players instead of on Biyombo and Augustin...

I know right. Hennigan really screwed us with those deals.


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[j-ragg]

I made it so that we have 5th pick every year which is around 6 mil, signed Gordon to 5/146 mil and Vucevic 4/68 (which is too low imo).

We'll definitely need a rebuild after you give those contracts out lol.

Vuc would never get 4/68 in this market. AG wouldn't get a 5 year max.

[Incognito76]

Airgordon00 - AG for Wall is possible if Wiz wan't to rebuild, but i doubt it as they have Wall, Beal, Porter and are good enough to be in the playoffs for the next 3-4 years. I think that trade it is not enough for AD who will be top 5 player for next 10 years. Also I think that trade is not enough for Leonard as they would get better offers - main problem is Fournier's contract who is 12 mil player a year at best.

J-ragg - Yeah Vuc and Gordon don't deserve that much but they will get it. Even if Vucevic leaves we won't be signing all stars to play with this rosters. I signed Vuc to contract starting at 15.3 mil, but don't be surprised if he gets contract starting at 19 mil. Aaron Gordon maybe won't be signed for 5, but he is getting contract starting at 26 mil as there will be teams this summer trying to sign him and Magic might as well sell team and relocate if they don't match that. What kind of contracts do you think they will get?

[Airgordon00]

Airgordon00 - AG for Wall is possible if Wiz wan't to rebuild, but i doubt it as they have Wall, Beal, Porter and are good enough to be in the playoffs for the next 3-4 years. I think that trade it is not enough for AD who will be top 5 player for next 10 years. Also I think that trade is not enough for Leonard as they would get better offers - main problem is Fournier's contract who is 12 mil player a year at best.

J-ragg - Yeah Vuc and Gordon don't deserve that much but they will get it. Even if Vucevic leaves we won't be signing all stars to play with this rosters. I signed Vuc to contract starting at 15.3 mil, but don't be surprised if he gets contract starting at 19 mil. Aaron Gordon maybe won't be signed for 5, but he is getting contract starting at 26 mil as there will be teams this summer trying to sign him and Magic might as well sell team and relocate if they don't match that. What kind of contracts do you think they will get?

Yeah I was thinking the wall trade was the most realistic because the wizards have been playing really well without Wall lately and he is due a boatload of money in the future. I would obviously love to get a Leonard or Davis but you are right they could probably get better offers from other teams.


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[j-ragg]

J-ragg - Yeah Vuc and Gordon don't deserve that much but they will get it. Even if Vucevic leaves we won't be signing all stars to play with this rosters. I signed Vuc to contract starting at 15.3 mil, but don't be surprised if he gets contract starting at 19 mil. Aaron Gordon maybe won't be signed for 5, but he is getting contract starting at 26 mil as there will be teams this summer trying to sign him and Magic might as well sell team and relocate if they don't match that. What kind of contracts do you think they will get?

Don't disagree at all with AG, I think a 4 year max is the worst case scenario though (for us). If he were unrestricted perhaps, but I'd still doubt it. Hadn't quite shown what Embiid or Wiggins (before this year) did.

Vuc next contract will be interesting for sure. I know for fact he would never get a contract starting at 19 million unless the cap shot up again like the summer of 2016. If he were an unrestricted free agent in the summer coming up? I'd probably guess a 3 year deal maybe for 40 million? 45 if a team really liked him.

[p0peye]

Wait, we can't sign contracts like Biyombo... ever?

Wow.

But, but, we're bad, don't care about cap, Devo's money.... still can't? Wow.

[OrlandoDream]

Imagine if we spent $24 million per year on good players instead of on Biyombo and Augustin...

This alone is enogh reason for Hennigan to never hold another office position ever again. Also anyone who supported this move should be removed from the organization.

We really can't do anything until the 2019 offseason when Biz contract becomes an expiring 17mil. He suddenly becomes positive after years of being negative. We cant do anything until his contract is off the book for us.

I also think we will try and trade Vuc as the C position is most easily replaced and Vuc isn't really a game changer. I think he is the next one we try to move on from. Fournier is actually productive and has value so I doubt we trade him.

[tiderulz]

I agree with a lot of what you said. Now would we be in favor of some blockbuster deals this offseason to acquire some star talent looking for a new start. A example of this could be sign and trade Aaron Gordon to the wizards for John wall. Then follow it up by trading vooch, Mack, Isaac and our 2018 first for Anthony Davis. Or if New Orleans doesn’t want to trade Davis yet we could try to trade Fournier, Issac and our 2018 first for Kawhi Leonard.

Obviously some fans might not be in favor of trading Gordon, Isaac and our 2018 first, but if we could turn those into a combo of wall/Davis and/or Wall/Leonard I would be really tempted because we know they are great players.

Thoughts?

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no to John Wall. he makes $19mil next year, then the following 3 years he avg's $40mil/yr. $40million for John Wall. he is a good player, he isnt a great player and isnt worth $40 million per year.

[Skin]

Imagine if we spent $24 million per year on good players instead of on Biyombo and Augustin...

Good players don't want to sign here. We have to develop a star first.

Besides, Fournier and Vuc would have made life miserable for them.

[VFX]

I agree with a lot of what you said. Now would we be in favor of some blockbuster deals this offseason to acquire some star talent looking for a new start. A example of this could be sign and trade Aaron Gordon to the wizards for John wall. Then follow it up by trading vooch, Mack, Isaac and our 2018 first for Anthony Davis. Or if New Orleans doesn’t want to trade Davis yet we could try to trade Fournier, Issac and our 2018 first for Kawhi Leonard.

Obviously some fans might not be in favor of trading Gordon, Isaac and our 2018 first, but if we could turn those into a combo of wall/Davis and/or Wall/Leonard I would be really tempted because we know they are great players.

Thoughts?

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no to John Wall. he makes $19mil next year, then the following 3 years he avg's $40mil/yr. $40million for John Wall. he is a good player, he isnt a great player and isnt worth $40 million per year.

Agreed. And I personally can’t stand him more than any other nba player. Even his teammates hate playing with him.

The Biz contract absolutely screwed the organization.
Any chance to get money off the books, even at the expense of “value” players (with exception to Isaac), is going to help this rebuild. Never understood why some remain hesitant about moving players off of a losing team in cap hell.

[MagicFan101]

Both Vuc and Ross becomes a super valuable trade assets next season. Together or in separate deals, they should be able to net us another good piece to pair with Gordon, Isaac and our draft pick.

If we draft a big (as I expect us to), they spam the market for a PG upgrade through trade.

Come 2019 Biz will be an expiring and we are ready to game plan for resigning the next wave of our rookie contracts and hopefully attacking free agency as a quality playoff destination.

Our free agency focus this summer is AG and possibly Mario. That is all.

[MagicFan101]

... also, I see a number of (minor) mistakes on your site as far as options go on our contracts. I would suggest you correct these before claiming Magic fans are uneducated to the cap situation of the team.

[VFX]

Both Vuc and Ross becomes a super valuable trade assets next season. Together or in separate deals, they should be able to net us another good piece to pair with Gordon, Isaac and our draft pick.

If we draft a big (as I expect us to), they spam the market for a PG upgrade through trade.

Come 2019 Biz will be an expiring and we are ready to game plan for resigning the next wave of our rookie contracts and hopefully attacking free agency as a quality playoff destination.

Our free agency focus this summer is AG and possibly Mario. That is all.

Why do you expect this?

[MagicFan101]

Both Vuc and Ross becomes a super valuable trade assets next season. Together or in separate deals, they should be able to net us another good piece to pair with Gordon, Isaac and our draft pick.

If we draft a big (as I expect us to), they spam the market for a PG upgrade through trade.

Come 2019 Biz will be an expiring and we are ready to game plan for resigning the next wave of our rookie contracts and hopefully attacking free agency as a quality playoff destination.

Our free agency focus this summer is AG and possibly Mario. That is all.

Why do you expect this?

Simple odds.

If we are in the top 2 I don’t see how we couldn’t.

If are 3-5 Doncic is in the running but there are very intriguing big men who will be there as well.

I don’t think we’ll fall far enough to have to settle on Young. But you never know. Maybe we draft to 6 or 7 and then sure, take Young.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we took a guard, I just don’t expect it.

[VFX]

Both Vuc and Ross becomes a super valuable trade assets next season. Together or in separate deals, they should be able to net us another good piece to pair with Gordon, Isaac and our draft pick.

If we draft a big (as I expect us to), they spam the market for a PG upgrade through trade.

Come 2019 Biz will be an expiring and we are ready to game plan for resigning the next wave of our rookie contracts and hopefully attacking free agency as a quality playoff destination.

Our free agency focus this summer is AG and possibly Mario. That is all.

Why do you expect this?

Simple odds.

If we are in the top 2 I don’t see how we couldn’t.

If are 3-5 Doncic is in the running but there are very intriguing big men who will be there as well.

I don’t think we’ll fall far enough to have to settle on Young. But you never know. Maybe we draft to 6 or 7 and then sure, take Young.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we took a guard, I just don’t expect it.

If Orlando lands in the top 5 one of Doncic, Porter, and Young will be available at some point. Not saying I would take Young in that range, but outside of that it becomes whoever is left of Bagley, Bamba, and JJJ. A lot can change, but as of now I can’t see Doncic, Ayton, or Porter making it out of the top 5 - Doncic alone top 2.

[MagicFan101]

Why do you expect this?

Simple odds.

If we are in the top 2 I don’t see how we couldn’t.

If are 3-5 Doncic is in the running but there are very intriguing big men who will be there as well.

I don’t think we’ll fall far enough to have to settle on Young. But you never know. Maybe we draft to 6 or 7 and then sure, take Young.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we took a guard, I just don’t expect it.

If Orlando lands in the top 5 one of Doncic, Porter, and Young will be available at some point. Not saying I would take Young in that range, but outside of that it becomes whoever is left of Bagley, Bamba, and JJJ. A lot can change, but as of now I can’t see Doncic, Ayton, or Porter making it out of the top 5 - Doncic alone top 2.

If Porter really is healthy I honestly think he is the #1 guy in the draft. He is just such a wildcard with that injury.

Doncic is also a wildcard for me. I haven't fallen in love with him the way I did Porzingis and I don't hate what I see the way I was about Exum. I have watched one complete game of his and was pretty impressed. Its a really small sample, so I am giving him my #4 spot. I can't put him in my top 3 without seeing more but everything I have seen is really good, so #4 seems like a good compromise.

I will absolutely 110%, no second though about it take Bagley over Young. I would be pretty pissed off on draft night if both were on the board and we took Young.

Bamba and JJjr vs. Young is tighter for me. I would Take either of the big men before Young but I wouldn't be upset if our GM had a different view.

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Note: The top of this draft is STACKED. I really like all 7 of these guys. Even Young, who has fallen for me in this class, would be a potential #1 in many other years. No hate from me for any of these guys. But we can only pick one... so you have to draw lines between them.

[bargnanimvp]

Simple odds.

If we are in the top 2 I don’t see how we couldn’t.

If are 3-5 Doncic is in the running but there are very intriguing big men who will be there as well.

I don’t think we’ll fall far enough to have to settle on Young. But you never know. Maybe we draft to 6 or 7 and then sure, take Young.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we took a guard, I just don’t expect it.

If Orlando lands in the top 5 one of Doncic, Porter, and Young will be available at some point. Not saying I would take Young in that range, but outside of that it becomes whoever is left of Bagley, Bamba, and JJJ. A lot can change, but as of now I can’t see Doncic, Ayton, or Porter making it out of the top 5 - Doncic alone top 2.

If Porter really is healthy I honestly think he is the #1 guy in the draft. He is just such a wildcard with that injury.

Doncic is also a wildcard for me. I haven't fallen in love with him the way I did Porzingis and I don't hate what I see the way I was about Exum. I have watched one complete game of his and was pretty impressed. Its a really small sample, so I am giving him my #4 spot. I can't put him in my top 3 without seeing more but everything I have seen is really good, so #4 seems like a good compromise.

I will absolutely 110%, no second though about it take Bagley over Young. I would be pretty pissed off on draft night if both were on the board and we took Young.

Bamba and JJjr vs. Young is tighter for me. I would Take either of the big men before Young but I wouldn't be upset if our GM had a different view.

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Note: The top of this draft is STACKED. I really like all 7 of these guys. Even Young, who has fallen for me in this class, would be a potential #1 in many other years. No hate from me for any of these guys. But we can only pick one... so you have to draw lines between them.

A GM who passes on doncic will be fired in a couple seasons.