Nope, he earned every bit of the hype. Doesn't mean he's a guarantee at the next level, but he balled out as a freshman and the potential is there to be a really great player in the NBA.
When he faced good defenses his production fell off a cliff. Compare Trae’s per 40 stats vs. top 60 defenses to Steph Curry’s 5 career NCAA tournament games:
Code: Select all
Pts eFG% AST TOV Opp DRtg
Steph 33.6 56.3% 3.6 1.9 89.5
Trae 27.7 47.7% 7.9 6.3 95.8People commonly lament the attention Trae drew from defenses, but Steph got the same attention vs much tougher defenses in the tournament and he shined.
These splits were a signal that Steph had some cerebral advantage to translate his goodness to higher levels while Trae did the opposite. It would be a good idea to stop making this comp forever.
Let's be fair and compare their freshman years...
Curry vs .500+ teams: 20.4 ppg on 17.4fga/9.6 3pta (41% fg, 33% 3pt), 2.2 apg, 2.1 tov (10 games)
Young vs .500+ teams: 28.5 ppg on 19.9 fga/10.8 3pta ( 42% fg, 37% 3pt), 8 apg, 5.7 tov (23 games)
Curry vs Top 100 RPI: 19.6 ppg on 16.6 fga/10.4 3pta (40% fg, 27% 3pt), 2.8 apg, 4.4 tov (5 games)
Young vs Top 100 RPI: 28.3 ppg on 20 fga/10.7 3pta (41% fg, 36% 3pt), 7.7 apg, 5.7 tov (23 games)
Curry vs AP Top 25: 17.5 ppg on 15 fga/10 3pta (37% fg, 30% 3pt), 1.5 apg, 3.5 tov (2 games)
Young vs AP Top 25: 28.4 ppg on 19.3 fga/10.3 3pta (42% fg, 37% 3pt) 8 apg, 5.7 tov (10 games)
Curry vs A10/ACC/Big12/Big10/Pac12: 18.3 ppg on 14.3 fga/7.8 3pta (43% fg, 33% 3pt), 3.3 apg, 3.8 tov (6 games)
Young A10/AAC/Big12/Big10/Pac12/SEC: 27.7 ppg on 19.8 fga/10.6 3pta (41% fg, 36% 3pt), 8 apg, 5.5 tov (26 games)
Curry NCAA Tournament: 30 ppg on 21 fga/14 3pta (43% fg, 36% 3pt), 3 apg, 4 tov (1 game)
Young NCAA Tournament: 28 ppg on 18 fga/9 3pta (50% fg, 33% 3pt), 7 apg, 6 tov (1 game)
And if you really want to compare Curry's final year stats you might be surprised...
Curry 3rd Yr vs .500+: 26.9 ppg on 21.9 fga/10.4 3pta (40% fg, 32% 3pt), 5.7 apg, 4.9 tov (15 games)
Curry 3rd Yr vs Top 100 RPI: 26.5 ppg on 23.8 fga/11.6 3pta (36% fg, 28% 3pt), 5.6 apg, 5.6 tov (10 games)
Curry 3rd Yr vs AP Top 25: 26.5 ppg on 25 fga/12 3pta (33% fg, 23% 3pt), 5.2 apg, 5.8 tov (4 games)
Curry 3rd Yr v AAC/ACC/Big12/Big10/SEC: 31.5 ppg on 26 fga/12.3 3pta (38% fg, 30% 3pt), 5.2 apg, 5.8 tov (6 games)
Curry 3rd yr NIT (not NCAA) Tourny: 29 ppg on 23 fga/10 3pta (44% fg, 45% 3pt), 4.5 apg, 6.5 tov (2 games)
Not so easy to be a high usage scoring PG against better conference competition even with two extra years experience.
Will he perform better in a smaller role with less of an offensive burden?
He played AAU with the Porter bros Michael and Jontay, and did not show clearly better efficiency in a more limited offensive role. He also shot poorly playing for Team USA in FIBA u18 championship in 2016, as well as the Nike Global Challenge in 2015.
Pretty sure he's improved a lot since 2015-16.
His efficiency was good considering all the tough shots he took as a high usage iso type of player who commanded double teams. He basically showcased himself as an NBA ready star and people want to knock him because he didn't play it safe and put up more efficient numbers? He showed he can produce with really high usage, a huge portion of his shots were NBA range threes, 75% of his shots were off the dribble, he only got the ball coming off screens on 2.5% of his possessions, he wasn't afraid to put his passing skills on display, he made good use of the "giant killer" (floater), and it took 2/3 of the season before teams were finally able to slow him down by ignoring his teammates and throwing everything at him. If he played it safe people wouldn't know what he was truly capable of and they'd use the size argument against him even more.
He won't have quite as high usage in the NBA, but it's still going to be really high if his scoring/passing skills translate. Shooters are always more efficient on catch and shoots, so any decrease in usage and increase in playing a little more off ball and using more screens will likely help his efficiency. FYI he averaged 2.0 Points Per Possession on open catch and shoots.
This is a guy who practices taking shots off bad passes...
And people think he's going to be worse if he turns some of his tough attempts into much easier attempts? Ok..
Oklahoma’s defense declined from 39th best to 85th best returning almost everybody after adding Trae.
Not quite the same team. Young replaced their second best defender (a senior) and their defensive starting PF was also replaced by an offensive player. Of course their defense would slip... and yet that bad roster won 7 more games.
But the vast majority on his effect came on Brady Manek– a 3* recruit who was much better than expected and happened to specialize in offense. Once you give most of the credit for Manek’s performance to Manek, Trae’s effect on his teammates is only slightly positive.
Their freshman starting stretch 4 looked better than expected, starting SG's fg% bumped up 10%, starting C's fg% up 7%, and four other players who averaged at least 10 mpg also improved their fg% by at least 2%. So... basically everyone worth a damn to that team looked better thanks to Young's scoring/passing presence.
