Draft Thread 7.0: The Final Countdown

[Knightro]

You have Trae Young ranked a bit higher on your site’s big board than many draft experts do (which I completely agree with). What specifically do you like about Trae Young’s game? What is it about Young’s film that solidifies him as a Top-5 pick in your opinion?

Zwicker: Frankly speaking, Trae is the most skilled guard I’ve seen come into the league for his age since I’ve been writing about the draft (admittedly not long). He can dribble, pass and shoot, all at an elite level, which is incredibly rare for a lead guard.

The singular skill I look for first from lead guards is that scheme-changing pull-up 3 that dictates how defenses react in pick-and-roll coverage and other sets gravity wise. Trae has 30 foot range, relying on upward momentum to create a shot area without boundary, as well as a lightning quick one-motion release. He pairs those qualities with the quickest transition from his handle to his pull-up probably since Steph. His balance on his shot is also impeccable, and the ability to decelerate and pull up on balance is something most every young guard faces for an elongated period of time once entering the league. Trae is already adept here. Mechanically, Trae’s set point is a little low, but he compensates with release speed. I’m of the opinion that Trae’s numbers in his year at Oklahoma actually undersell his shooting ability. Most every shot he took was a self-created pull-up, a lot of them far beyond NBA 3 and most contested. He’ll get to play off the ball more in the NBA with other players actually able to create a shot for him, and his open looks will increase. It’s a small sample, but he was 14-19 on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s in the half court this year, and he was also dynamite shooting off movement coming off screens, both illustrative of higher upside here.

While his most *valuable* skill is unquestionably his shot, his *best* skill is his passing. Trae has legitimate passing anticipation to see the play open two moves ahead, is incredible making quick read hit ahead passes in transition (don’t understand why he isn’t given the same coverage here as Lonzo Ball was) and has very advanced overall passing craft. He can make one-handed passes with either hand with precision and high velocity. I don’t think there are 5 players in the NBA who can make the left-handed skip pass Trae made against Rhode Island in the first half of the tournament with their off hand. He’s also adept passing on the move with the functional craft to capitalize on tighter windows, something that is imperative for a 6-foot-2 guard who wont just be able to pass over the top. Trae definitely has the vision and craft as a passer. The gray area points moving forward will be his decision-making (hard to suss out given his insane usage and playmaking burden at Oklahoma) and how well he handles traps.

Lastly, Trae has advanced skill as a ball-handler, already possessing advanced moves like the shamgod in his arsenal. He has the ball on a string even in tight confines, imperative for a pick-and-roll guard, and has fantastic control with a low dribble to the ground (a benefit of his height). He blew by guys like Jevon Carter with an underrated first step, short area explosion and overall plus wheels far more often than he gets credit for. He’s not a high-level athlete, but he has the threat of his shot that will force defenders to play up on him, and he has enough juice off the dribble to separate, although he’ll probably most often rely on deception/changing speeds.

Overall, Trae’s blemishes consist of finishing due to his lack of size and vertical pop, and most importantly, on the defensive side. He’ll get hunted in the playoffs like most small guards do, and he’ll always be a negative on that end. The key is to what degree? Will he be Isaiah Thomas esque bad (he’s bigger) or 2017/18 Damian Lillard passable? If you watch the first Texas Tech game you can see when engaged (and when he has energy) Trae can guard respectably, and I suspect his instincts are far better than he got to show in his “no foul” Oklahoma role due given what we know about his instincts on the other end of the floor.

A lot of this comes down for me to you want offense from your guards and defense from your bigs. If Trae can become salvageable on defense he has the highest upside (along with Luka Doncic) in the class due to the nature of his position and role as an initiator of an offense. Dynamic offensive perimeter players drive the league, and that is within Trae’s outcome range. Also aiding Trae’s projection is he doesn’t need the ball to be effective, differentiating him from other small guards who can’t shoot and who teams have to marry themselves to on-ball for multiple years (Elfrid Payton).

At his apex, Trae can reign hellfire as a shooter and playmaker akin to Curry and Lillard, being the focal point of an elite offense. His ceiling is this era’s version of Steve Nash. While it’s an unlikely outcome, as most generational tail upside outcomes are, it’s one worth chasing.

https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2018/6/16/17469552/nba-draft-q-a-w-cole-zwicker-from-the-stepien

This one is from yesterday, so not sure if it was posted. Great look at Young and a whole lot more. Excellent interview.

[taj2133]

OT:

Read on Twitter

Jaren Jackson might fall to number 6 pick you never know.

[Nyce_1]

Good. Right to Orlando.

I literally refuse to let myself think that we have a legitimate chance at him. I would absolutely lose my mind if he fell to us. I dont see a world where Dallas passes on him though.

0% chance we get Doncic.

Ayton
Bagley
Young
Porter
JJJ
6. Doncic

Not likely, but we have higher than 0% chance to get him. I get what you're saying but there is a highly slim chance.

[CZ Eddie]

Trae is my #1 want in this draft.
Had we reeled in the #1 spot in the draft, I'd still want Trae.

Bamba is a tossup. I don't have confidence in his desire to be the best.
I'm worried he'll "call it good" after being drafted and try to get by on his charisma.
But if he does improve his offense and game smarts, he'll be a superstar someday.
And his charisma will make him a routine All Star and fan favorite.
The next Dwight Howard as sickening as that sounds.
But hopefully not the real next Dwight Howard, if that makes sense.

[taj2133]

OT: Report: First round picks will walk across draft stage with two family members
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/06/17/report-first-round-picks-will-walk-across-draft-stage-with-two-family-members/amp/

[Magic_Johnny12]

Sacramento is not passing on Doncic in any form. Vlade is salivating in the opportunity to draft his very own euro regardless of the wings they have.

Top 2 are locked in my eyes.

The draft starts @ 3 with Atlanta where they could go literally any way they want. Young/Bamba/JJJ/Porter all fit there. I think they ultimately go big in Bamba (sigh).

Memphis will not hesitate and draft Bagley @ 4

Dallas will go big and draft JJJ

We will be picking out of Porter or Young after all said and done.

So I guess Young it is which I'm not mad at.

[InFlames]

I literally refuse to let myself think that we have a legitimate chance at him. I would absolutely lose my mind if he fell to us. I dont see a world where Dallas passes on him though.

0% chance we get Doncic.

Ayton
Bagley
Young
Porter
JJJ
6. Doncic

No likely, but we have higher than 0% chance to get him. I get what you're saying but there is a highly slim chance.

True

[Darth Magic]

I honestly don't know how I can go on if the team doesn't pick a dynamic young playmaking guard in this draft. I honestly might lose it.

But seriously, I already think the Magic made a mistake not taking DSJ in the last draft. Taking DSJ would have made it much easier to take a big man in this draft. DSJ, AG and Bamba would be a very good combo to build on. Now we still need a center and a point guard. Sigh

Anyway, I am good with one of Bamba, MPJ or Young with Young being the preferred pick.

[Darth Magic]

You have Trae Young ranked a bit higher on your site’s big board than many draft experts do (which I completely agree with). What specifically do you like about Trae Young’s game? What is it about Young’s film that solidifies him as a Top-5 pick in your opinion?

Zwicker: Frankly speaking, Trae is the most skilled guard I’ve seen come into the league for his age since I’ve been writing about the draft (admittedly not long). He can dribble, pass and shoot, all at an elite level, which is incredibly rare for a lead guard.

The singular skill I look for first from lead guards is that scheme-changing pull-up 3 that dictates how defenses react in pick-and-roll coverage and other sets gravity wise. Trae has 30 foot range, relying on upward momentum to create a shot area without boundary, as well as a lightning quick one-motion release. He pairs those qualities with the quickest transition from his handle to his pull-up probably since Steph. His balance on his shot is also impeccable, and the ability to decelerate and pull up on balance is something most every young guard faces for an elongated period of time once entering the league. Trae is already adept here. Mechanically, Trae’s set point is a little low, but he compensates with release speed. I’m of the opinion that Trae’s numbers in his year at Oklahoma actually undersell his shooting ability. Most every shot he took was a self-created pull-up, a lot of them far beyond NBA 3 and most contested. He’ll get to play off the ball more in the NBA with other players actually able to create a shot for him, and his open looks will increase. It’s a small sample, but he was 14-19 on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s in the half court this year, and he was also dynamite shooting off movement coming off screens, both illustrative of higher upside here.

While his most *valuable* skill is unquestionably his shot, his *best* skill is his passing. Trae has legitimate passing anticipation to see the play open two moves ahead, is incredible making quick read hit ahead passes in transition (don’t understand why he isn’t given the same coverage here as Lonzo Ball was) and has very advanced overall passing craft. He can make one-handed passes with either hand with precision and high velocity. I don’t think there are 5 players in the NBA who can make the left-handed skip pass Trae made against Rhode Island in the first half of the tournament with their off hand. He’s also adept passing on the move with the functional craft to capitalize on tighter windows, something that is imperative for a 6-foot-2 guard who wont just be able to pass over the top. Trae definitely has the vision and craft as a passer. The gray area points moving forward will be his decision-making (hard to suss out given his insane usage and playmaking burden at Oklahoma) and how well he handles traps.

Lastly, Trae has advanced skill as a ball-handler, already possessing advanced moves like the shamgod in his arsenal. He has the ball on a string even in tight confines, imperative for a pick-and-roll guard, and has fantastic control with a low dribble to the ground (a benefit of his height). He blew by guys like Jevon Carter with an underrated first step, short area explosion and overall plus wheels far more often than he gets credit for. He’s not a high-level athlete, but he has the threat of his shot that will force defenders to play up on him, and he has enough juice off the dribble to separate, although he’ll probably most often rely on deception/changing speeds.

Overall, Trae’s blemishes consist of finishing due to his lack of size and vertical pop, and most importantly, on the defensive side. He’ll get hunted in the playoffs like most small guards do, and he’ll always be a negative on that end. The key is to what degree? Will he be Isaiah Thomas esque bad (he’s bigger) or 2017/18 Damian Lillard passable? If you watch the first Texas Tech game you can see when engaged (and when he has energy) Trae can guard respectably, and I suspect his instincts are far better than he got to show in his “no foul” Oklahoma role due given what we know about his instincts on the other end of the floor.

A lot of this comes down for me to you want offense from your guards and defense from your bigs. If Trae can become salvageable on defense he has the highest upside (along with Luka Doncic) in the class due to the nature of his position and role as an initiator of an offense. Dynamic offensive perimeter players drive the league, and that is within Trae’s outcome range. Also aiding Trae’s projection is he doesn’t need the ball to be effective, differentiating him from other small guards who can’t shoot and who teams have to marry themselves to on-ball for multiple years (Elfrid Payton).

At his apex, Trae can reign hellfire as a shooter and playmaker akin to Curry and Lillard, being the focal point of an elite offense. His ceiling is this era’s version of Steve Nash. While it’s an unlikely outcome, as most generational tail upside outcomes are, it’s one worth chasing.

https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2018/6/16/17469552/nba-draft-q-a-w-cole-zwicker-from-the-stepien

This one is from yesterday, so not sure if it was posted. Great look at Young and a whole lot more. Excellent interview.

Yes, I read this last night. I agree 100 percent. When I see Trae Young I see special. Just an immense talent.

[Magic_Johnny12]

I honestly don't know how I can go on if the team doesn't pick a dynamic young playmaking guard in this draft. I honestly might lose it.

But seriously, I already think the Magic made a mistake not taking DSJ in the last draft. Taking DSJ would have made it much easier to take a big man in this draft. DSJ, AG and Bamba would be a very good combo to build on. Now we still need a center and a point guard. Sigh

Anyway, I am good with one of Bamba, MPJ or Young with Young being the preferred pick.

Young + Isaac > DSJ + Bamba (and this is coming from a huge Bamba believer)

[taj2133]

Sacramento is not passing on Doncic in any form. Vlade is salivating in the opportunity to draft his very own euro regardless of the wings they have.

Top 2 are locked in my eyes.

The draft starts @ 3 with Atlanta where they could go literally any way they want. Young/Bamba/JJJ/Porter all fit there. I think they ultimately go big in Bamba (sigh).

Memphis will not hesitate and draft Bagley @ 4

Dallas will go big and draft JJJ

We will be picking out of Porter or Young after all said and done.

So I guess Young it is which I'm not mad at.

Memphis only had 2 people come in for workouts or give them information thats wendell carter and michael porter

The Grizzlies struggled to get players in for workouts and getting medical information from certain players, according to Adrian Wojnarowski on his podcast.

The Grizzlies have really looked bad in the last two years and it's reflecting in how agents treat them. Wendell Carter is reportedly among the top prospects, but that's about it for players projected to go into the top five. On the bright side, at least the Grizzlies have hired some strong assistants in Jerry Stackhouse and Nick Van Exel.

Read on Twitter

http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/nba/basketball?ls=roto:nba:gnav&rw=1

[Darth Magic]

I honestly don't know how I can go on if the team doesn't pick a dynamic young playmaking guard in this draft. I honestly might lose it.

But seriously, I already think the Magic made a mistake not taking DSJ in the last draft. Taking DSJ would have made it much easier to take a big man in this draft. DSJ, AG and Bamba would be a very good combo to build on. Now we still need a center and a point guard. Sigh

Anyway, I am good with one of Bamba, MPJ or Young with Young being the preferred pick.

Young + Isaac > DSJ + Bamba (and this is coming from a huge Bamba believer)

That may be the case, but I'm not so sure. For me, it boils down to Center vs Power Forward. The center has more impact on the game than a pf does. So for me, gimmie a point guard and a center vs a point guard and a power forward if the players are similar in talent.

[Knightro]

Memphis only had 2 people come in for workouts or give them information thats wendell carter and michael porter

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the Magic only had four lotto picks in for workouts? Trae Young, Kevin Knox, Wendell Carter Jr, Collin Sexton?

Am I missing anyone else?

[MagicFan101]

I literally refuse to let myself think that we have a legitimate chance at him. I would absolutely lose my mind if he fell to us. I dont see a world where Dallas passes on him though.

0% chance we get Doncic.

Ayton
Bagley
Young
Porter
JJJ
6. Doncic

Not likely, but we have higher than 0% chance to get him. I get what you're saying but there is a highly slim chance.

I don’t see Doncic making it to 5. BPA-wise he should go #2 or 3. If he survives to #4 Memphis will bite HARD.

[taj2133]

Memphis only had 2 people come in for workouts or give them information thats wendell carter and michael porter

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the Magic only had four lotto picks in for workouts? Trae Young, Kevin Knox, Wendell Carter Jr, Collin Sexton?

Am I missing anyone else?

I think you are correct but there been lot of noise linked to michael porter to memphis or wendell carter to memphis they want guys who want to be on there team.

[Nyce_1]

I honestly don't know how I can go on if the team doesn't pick a dynamic young playmaking guard in this draft. I honestly might lose it.

But seriously, I already think the Magic made a mistake not taking DSJ in the last draft. Taking DSJ would have made it much easier to take a big man in this draft. DSJ, AG and Bamba would be a very good combo to build on. Now we still need a center and a point guard. Sigh

Anyway, I am good with one of Bamba, MPJ or Young with Young being the preferred pick.

Young + Isaac > DSJ + Bamba (and this is coming from a huge Bamba believer)

That may be the case, but I'm not so sure. For me, it boils down to Center vs Power Forward. The center has more impact on the game than a pf does. So for me, gimmie a point guard and a center vs a point guard and a power forward if the players are similar in talent.

But Isaac isn't a just a PF, he's a defensive beast that literally defend 1-5......like with zero hesitation.

[Nyce_1]

Memphis only had 2 people come in for workouts or give them information thats wendell carter and michael porter

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the Magic only had four lotto picks in for workouts? Trae Young, Kevin Knox, Wendell Carter Jr, Collin Sexton?

Am I missing anyone else?

That's all that was reported.

[Magic_Johnny12]

Sacramento is not passing on Doncic in any form. Vlade is salivating in the opportunity to draft his very own euro regardless of the wings they have.

Top 2 are locked in my eyes.

The draft starts @ 3 with Atlanta where they could go literally any way they want. Young/Bamba/JJJ/Porter all fit there. I think they ultimately go big in Bamba (sigh).

Memphis will not hesitate and draft Bagley @ 4

Dallas will go big and draft JJJ

We will be picking out of Porter or Young after all said and done.

So I guess Young it is which I'm not mad at.

Memphis only had 2 people come in for workouts or give them information thats wendell carter and michael porter

The Grizzlies struggled to get players in for workouts and getting medical information from certain players, according to Adrian Wojnarowski on his podcast.

The Grizzlies have really looked bad in the last two years and it's reflecting in how agents treat them. Wendell Carter is reportedly among the top prospects, but that's about it for players projected to go into the top five. On the bright side, at least the Grizzlies have hired some strong assistants in Jerry Stackhouse and Nick Van Exel.

Read on Twitter

http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/nba/basketball?ls=roto:nba:gnav&rw=1

This means nothing. They do not need to have a personal workout with such a high prospect in Bagley as we didnt need one for Isaac. He fits perfectly and probably is one of the most offensive polished players that could immediate contribute.

[Darth Magic]

Young + Isaac > DSJ + Bamba (and this is coming from a huge Bamba believer)

That may be the case, but I'm not so sure. For me, it boils down to Center vs Power Forward. The center has more impact on the game than a pf does. So for me, gimmie a point guard and a center vs a point guard and a power forward if the players are similar in talent.

But Isaac isn't a just a PF, he's a defensive beast that literally defend 1-5......like with zero hesitation.

As I said, he's a power forward. He may be able to switch unto smaller centers but he can't guard then full time. Too thin and small lower body. Gimmie the full time center and the point guard if the talent is similar.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I’ll be ecstatic-
Doncic
Bagley

I’ll be ok with-
Young
M. Bridges
Porter (to a lesser extent)

There better be a plan in place and other moves made-
JJJ
Bamba
WCJr

Not sure for the hate with Bamba... he is semi-raw but he can hit the 3, block shots and do things like this:

Watch on YouTube

NO ONE is blocking that shot.

That said, there needs to be a plan in place with any draft pick. We pick Doncic, cool, who's playing PG and C? We draft Bagley, cool, what's the plan for JI, AG and Vuc (where does Bagley fit in)? We draft Young, cool, who is defending the paint and improving our horrible defense?

We suck so much that one pick isn't going to change everything unless we luck into a LeBron type of player.

I don’t think anyone “hates” bamba.


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