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Now that all dust has settled, everyone should (key word *should*) hopefully have come to terms with who went where and can speak through unbiased lenses rather than knee jerk emotions.

I always like to think back and categorize draftees by buckets:

a) Stars on day 1 who never look back. They will always be stars.

b) Shine early with stats and rookie team honors but quickly fade (Jahlil Okafor, MCW come to mind).

c) Struggles to produce early but becomes the best of them all soon enough.

d) Bust. No explanation needed.

e) Your run of the mill role player.

My early predictions:

a) Ayton. This is a scary pick but I just have a feeling about him.

b) Young. Summer league has been tough but if you surround him with better talent and give him the unlimited green light he will shine early. But that gree light won’t last forever. Will his star fade as responsibilities grow?

c) Bamba / JJjr. Easy to see the potential here. Hard to imagine all of it will be ready Day 1.

d) I guess I go Bagley by default but I don’t see a true bust inside the top 10.

e) Bridges. Easiest choice on this list.

MagicFan101 wrote:Now that all dust has settled, everyone should (key word *should*) hopefully have come to terms with who went where and can speak through unbiased lenses rather than knee jerk emotions.

I always like to think back and categorize draftees by buckets:

a) Stars on day 1 who never look back. They will always be stars.

b) Shine early with stats and rookie team honors but quickly fade (Jahlil Okafor, MCW come to mind).

c) Struggles to produce early but becomes the best of them all soon enough.

d) Bust. No explanation needed.

e) Your run of the mill role player.

1. Ayton

2. WCJ (Not that I think he will bust, but I think he will be good from Day 1 but remain the same).

3. Doncic

4. Shai

5. Bagley

MagicFan101 wrote:My early predictions:

a) Ayton. This is a scary pick but I just have a feeling about him.

b) Young. Summer league has been tough but if you surround him with better talent and give him the unlimited green light he will shine early. But that gree light won’t last forever. Will his star fade as responsibilities grow?

c) Bamba / JJjr. Easy to see the potential here. Hard to imagine all of it will be ready Day 1.

d) I guess I go Bagley by default but I don’t see a true bust inside the top 10.

e) Bridges. Easiest choice on this list.

If I’m only picking one for each inside the top 10.

A) Doncic
B) Ayton
C) Bamba
D) Young
E) Carter (still a starter though)

I was pretty scared off by Trae Young when I had hope of a top 3 pick. When I learned we had the #6 I changed my tune, “oh well, why not swing for the fences?” But I have to say I am quickly reverting back to my original thinking. He is going to have some crazy scoring nights but we will have two or more horrendous nights for each of those. The primary driver in that is decision making. I just don’t trust him to turn that thinking off.

MagicMatic wrote:If I’m only picking one for each inside the top 10.

A) Doncic
B) Ayton
C) Bamba
D) Young
E) Carter (still a starter though)

You definitely don’t need to pick just one per group. I just went with simple examples from the top picks to kick it off.

In fact, I’m mostly interested in non-lottery projections. As I work through building my projections for players I’m less familiar with (ones I knew we weren’t considering at 6), I wanted to toss this to the board and see what others think.

Where will the day 1 star from outside the top 10 come this year? Who fell because he isn’t NBA ready but will have people regretting their impatience soon enough?

MagicFan101 wrote:

MagicMatic wrote:If I’m only picking one for each inside the top 10.

A) Doncic
B) Ayton
C) Bamba
D) Young
E) Carter (still a starter though)

You definitely don’t need to pick just one per group. I just went with simple examples from the top picks to kick it off.

In fact, I’m mostly interested in non-lottery projections. As I work through building my projections for players I’m less familiar with (ones I knew we weren’t considering at 6), I wanted to toss this to the board and see what others think.

Where will the day 1 star from outside the top 10 come this year? Who fell because he isn’t NBA ready but will have people regretting their impatience soon enough?

B) Mitchell Robinson

I think Kevin Knox could be a decent outside candidate for the C bucket.

I started paying more attention to him late in the draft process and made sure to follow him in preseason. I like a lot of what I saw.

MagicFan101 wrote:Now that all dust has settled, everyone should (key word *should*) hopefully have come to terms with who went where and can speak through unbiased lenses rather than knee jerk emotions.

I always like to think back and categorize draftees by buckets:

a) Stars on day 1 who never look back. They will always be stars.

b) Shine early with stats and rookie team honors but quickly fade (Jahlil Okafor, MCW come to mind).

c) Struggles to produce early but becomes the best of them all soon enough.

d) Bust. No explanation needed.

e) Your run of the mill role player.

a) Sexton
b) Ayton
c) Doncic
d) Shai
e) Carter

Doncic is my guy for group A.

I honestly think that not trying to outbid the Mavericks for Doncic is going to haunt us. I see Doncic in the long run being more valuable to a team than both Bamba and whoever we draft in the late lotto. He's going to be that good. Bamba is going to be really, really good but Doncic is a true superstar talent.

OrlandoNed wrote:Doncic is my guy for group A.

I honestly think that not trying to outbid the Mavericks for Doncic is going to haunt us. I see Doncic in the long run being more valuable to a team than both Bamba and whoever we draft in the late lotto. He's going to be that good. Bamba is going to be really, really good but Doncic is a true superstar talent.

The fact that we are in their division may have put on of the “do not trade with” list.

Dallas had a slightly better pick than us. We would have had to beat that by a VERY large margins for them to trade Doncic within the division.

Outbidding them may not have even been an option.

MagicFan101 wrote:

OrlandoNed wrote:Doncic is my guy for group A.

I honestly think that not trying to outbid the Mavericks for Doncic is going to haunt us. I see Doncic in the long run being more valuable to a team than both Bamba and whoever we draft in the late lotto. He's going to be that good. Bamba is going to be really, really good but Doncic is a true superstar talent.

The fact that we are in their division may have put on of the “do not trade with” list.

Dallas had a slightly better pick than us. We would have had to beat that by a VERY large margins for them to trade Doncic within the division.

Outbidding them may not have even been an option.

I hadn't really considered that, but if they were crazy enough to pass on Doncic for Young, who knows what else Atlanta could been convinced of. Flat Earth? Lizard People? Fake moon landing?

MagicFan101 wrote:Now that all dust has settled, everyone should (key word *should*) hopefully have come to terms with who went where and can speak through unbiased lenses rather than knee jerk emotions.

I always like to think back and categorize draftees by buckets:

a) Stars on day 1 who never look back. They will always be stars.

b) Shine early with stats and rookie team honors but quickly fade (Jahlil Okafor, MCW come to mind).

c) Struggles to produce early but becomes the best of them all soon enough.

d) Bust. No explanation needed.

e) Your run of the mill role player.

a) Doncic

b) Sexton

c) WCJ

d) Bagley

e) Mikal Bridges

a) Doncic/Ayton

b) Sexton

c) Bamba/Young

d) Bagley

e) Mikal Bridges

MagicFan101 wrote:Now that all dust has settled, everyone should (key word *should*) hopefully have come to terms with who went where and can speak through unbiased lenses rather than knee jerk emotions.

I always like to think back and categorize draftees by buckets:

a) Stars on day 1 who never look back. They will always be stars.

b) Shine early with stats and rookie team honors but quickly fade (Jahlil Okafor, MCW come to mind).

c) Struggles to produce early but becomes the best of them all soon enough.

d) Bust. No explanation needed.

e) Your run of the mill role player.

a. Sexton because of his "Bull" mentality and drive. It seems easier for PGs to become stars and stay relevant. It's also clearly his team.

b.J Robinson hype.

c. Bamba, but non homer pick is Lonnie Walker now that he's buried on bench.

d.M Porter won't ever heal right. Non injury related, Grayson Allen.

e.Aaron Holiday Will be a solid backup PG.

I will add that the most interesting part of the draft is the shooting guard crop between 16-21.

Lonnie Walker
Josh Okogie
Zhaire Smith
Kevin Huerter
Grayson Allen
Donte Divencenzo

I think 2-3 extremely solid nba players and possibly an all star can come out of that group. I’m high on Okogie and Walker, but any of the others wouldn’t surprise me either.

MagicMatic wrote:If I’m only picking one for each inside the top 10.

A) Doncic
B) Ayton
C) Bamba
D) Young
E) Carter (still a starter though)

And-1

a) Injuries excluded, there can be no doubt Dončić will be a transformative SG
b) Ayton will put up monster stats while young. But his lack of defense at the slot that most requires defense will be crippling
c) Bamba projects as at-least an all-defensive player in his late 20s. At #6 that is a good pick
d) watching Young not play defense on tweet after tweet is very disturbing
e) I like Carter here in that he will be a nice workman player. Nothing special but nothing to fret over



If I was to add another thought, I really Gilgeous-Alexander for either a C or an E. He just looks like a quality player. But can he become special; so hard to tell with rookie PGs given how hard it is to learn that job.


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MagicMatic wrote:I will add that the most interesting part of the draft is the shooting guard crop between 16-21.

Lonnie Walker
Josh Okogie
Zhaire Smith
Kevin Huerter
Grayson Allen
Donte Divencenzo

I think 2-3 extremely solid nba players and possibly an all star can come out of that group. I’m high on Okogie and Walker, but any of the others wouldn’t surprise me either.

I agree and I also think there will be 2-3 total busts in that list.


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