Dunc'd On Podcast: Orlando Outlook

[Def Swami]

Nate Duncan does his annual 1 hour deep dive into each team just before training camp. He and Danny Leroux go in on the Magic at around the 1 hour mark. I've always listened to the pre-season outlooks for the 30 teams; they do a generally decent job and provide a realist's perspective of an outsider looking in.

Enjoy at work, the gym, or your car rides home.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/duncdon/2018/09/13/den-outlook-w-adam-mares-orl-outlook-w-danny

[Xatticus]

Magic segment starts around 63:45.

[VFX]

Good podcast.
A few eye opening things about the podcast.
1. Orlando was 30th last season in rebounding rate.

2. DJ Augustine led the team in free throw rate.
(Not acceptable at all) Basically reiterating the fact that AG doesn’t use his athleticism at all and took low % jump shots. That and Vuc is allergic to contact.

3. AG took 35% of his shots outside of the restricted area and only hit about 30% on those shots.

[MagicFan101]

Good podcast.
A few eye opening things about the podcast.
1. Orlando was 30th last season in rebounding rate.

2. DJ Augustine led the team in free throw rate.
(Not acceptable at all) Basically reiterating the fact that AG doesn’t use his athleticism at all and took low % jump shots. That and Vuc is allergic to contact.

3. AG took 35% of his shots outside of the restricted area and only hit about 30% on those shots.

Sounds like we could use an upgrade at the big man spot almost as much we could use an upgrade at PG ...

Where oh where might a great young center prospect fall into our lap from? Hmm? Where oh where indeed ...

[VFX]

Good podcast.
A few eye opening things about the podcast.
1. Orlando was 30th last season in rebounding rate.

2. DJ Augustine led the team in free throw rate.
(Not acceptable at all) Basically reiterating the fact that AG doesn’t use his athleticism at all and took low % jump shots. That and Vuc is allergic to contact.

3. AG took 35% of his shots outside of the restricted area and only hit about 30% on those shots.

Sounds like we could use an upgrade at the big man spot almost as much we could use an upgrade at PG ...

Where oh where might a great young center prospect fall into our lap from? Hmm? Where oh where indeed ...

That only addresses issue #1. Isaac also exists.

[pepe1991]

Good podcast.
A few eye opening things about the podcast.
1. Orlando was 30th last season in rebounding rate.

2. DJ Augustine led the team in free throw rate.
(Not acceptable at all) Basically reiterating the fact that AG doesn’t use his athleticism at all and took low % jump shots. That and Vuc is allergic to contact.

3. AG took 35% of his shots outside of the restricted area and only hit about 30% on those shots.

Sounds like we could use an upgrade at the big man spot almost as much we could use an upgrade at PG ...

Where oh where might a great young center prospect fall into our lap from? Hmm? Where oh where indeed ...

Magic still need ballhandler capable of hitting shots and setting others more than anything else combined.

It's impossible to be good with backups and third stringers fighting for starting job at position that requires hall of fame PG to be contender for almost a decade now.

[MagicFan101]

Good podcast.
A few eye opening things about the podcast.
1. Orlando was 30th last season in rebounding rate.

2. DJ Augustine led the team in free throw rate.
(Not acceptable at all) Basically reiterating the fact that AG doesn’t use his athleticism at all and took low % jump shots. That and Vuc is allergic to contact.

3. AG took 35% of his shots outside of the restricted area and only hit about 30% on those shots.

Sounds like we could use an upgrade at the big man spot almost as much we could use an upgrade at PG ...

Where oh where might a great young center prospect fall into our lap from? Hmm? Where oh where indeed ...

That only addresses issue #1. Isaac also exists.

I have high hopes for Bamba’s ability to get to the free throw line better than Vuc.

DJ is a good free throw shooter. I don’t understand why it is unacceptable for his to shoot a better rate than everyone else on the roster. How many 90% FT shooters can you have?

What I care about (which you addressed with AG) is how little our big guys got to the line. Vuc was 41st at his position in FTA per game. Horrible.

Even if you miss the shots, force them into foul trouble and force them to change their aggresiveness because of it. Vuc does neither.

[VFX]

Sounds like we could use an upgrade at the big man spot almost as much we could use an upgrade at PG ...

Where oh where might a great young center prospect fall into our lap from? Hmm? Where oh where indeed ...

That only addresses issue #1. Isaac also exists.

I have high hopes for Bamba’s ability to get to the free throw line better than Vuc.

DJ is a good free throw shooter. I don’t understand why it is unacceptable for his to shoot a better rate than everyone else on the roster. How many 90% FT shooters can you have?

What I care about (which you addressed with AG) is how little our big guys got to the line. Vuc was 41st at his position in FTA per game. Horrible.

Even if you miss the shots, force them into foul trouble and force them to change their aggresiveness because of it. Vuc does neither.

Because I’m talking about rate as in how often he gets to the line and not ft%. No one on the Magic really did. Ideally you would think that bigs would be getting to the line more often than DJ who really isn’t near contact inside.

What’s more problematic is that Vuc and Ag are high usage players that still couldn’t get to the line as bigs. For example, Embiid attempts about 8 fts per game and Vuc is almost 2 (at 1.6 last season).

AG is hitting about 4fts per game, so he gets to the line about twice a game. Compare that to Blake Griffin (his modern comp) that gets take about 6-7 fts per game. To me it’s really just a portrayal of how AG plays soft, settles far too often on low % jumpers, and doesn’t utilize his athleticism that he touts at all.

[MagicFan101]

That only addresses issue #1. Isaac also exists.

I have high hopes for Bamba’s ability to get to the free throw line better than Vuc.

DJ is a good free throw shooter. I don’t understand why it is unacceptable for his to shoot a better rate than everyone else on the roster. How many 90% FT shooters can you have?

What I care about (which you addressed with AG) is how little our big guys got to the line. Vuc was 41st at his position in FTA per game. Horrible.

Even if you miss the shots, force them into foul trouble and force them to change their aggresiveness because of it. Vuc does neither.

Because I’m talking about rate as in how often he gets to the line. No one on the Magic really did. Ideally you would think that bigs would be getting to the line more often than DJ who really isn’t near contact inside.

What’s more problematic is that Vuc and Ag are high usage players that still couldn’t get to the line as bigs. For example, Embiid attempts about 8 fts per game and Vuc is almost 2 (at 1.6 last season).

AG is hitting about 4fts per game, so he gets to the line about twice a game. Compare that to Blake Griffin (his modern comp) that gets take about 6-7 fts per game. To me it’s really just a portrayal of how AG plays soft, settles far too often on low % jumpers, and doesn’t utilize his athleticism that he touts at all.

Yes ... if you keep reading beyond the bold you will see we are talking about the same thing.

I expect a change in our our bigs are used with the switch to Clifford and the (eventual) swap of Vuc for Bamba.

Yes, we still need a PG but there just weren’t great options for us this summer. Despite what many here keep saying, Bamba and Clifford will help address areas of need. It will just be more subtle than a position label. It will be in the form of style of play.

[YosemiteSam]

They should use some kind of metric goal for our players where they try per game to get a certain percentage of fouls, at-the-rim challenges and offensive fouls (charges). While obv you want to avoid too many charges called against you by also counting that in a total "aggressiveness" goal then you can encourage the right behavior. I hope AG gets 1 charge called against him per game because then it means he is challenging the hoop

[GameOver25]

Good podcast.
A few eye opening things about the podcast.
1. Orlando was 30th last season in rebounding rate.

2. DJ Augustine led the team in free throw rate.
(Not acceptable at all) Basically reiterating the fact that AG doesn’t use his athleticism at all and took low % jump shots. That and Vuc is allergic to contact.

3. AG took 35% of his shots outside of the restricted area and only hit about 30% on those shots.

I dare you criticize DJ "NBA Jam pump fake" Augustine free throw rate?!?

[yoyojw17]

That only addresses issue #1. Isaac also exists.

I have high hopes for Bamba’s ability to get to the free throw line better than Vuc.

DJ is a good free throw shooter. I don’t understand why it is unacceptable for his to shoot a better rate than everyone else on the roster. How many 90% FT shooters can you have?

What I care about (which you addressed with AG) is how little our big guys got to the line. Vuc was 41st at his position in FTA per game. Horrible.

Even if you miss the shots, force them into foul trouble and force them to change their aggresiveness because of it. Vuc does neither.

Because I’m talking about rate as in how often he gets to the line and not ft%. No one on the Magic really did. Ideally you would think that bigs would be getting to the line more often than DJ who really isn’t near contact inside.

What’s more problematic is that Vuc and Ag are high usage players that still couldn’t get to the line as bigs. For example, Embiid attempts about 8 fts per game and Vuc is almost 2 (at 1.6 last season).

AG is hitting about 4fts per game, so he gets to the line about twice a game. Compare that to Blake Griffin (his modern comp) that gets take about 6-7 fts per game. To me it’s really just a portrayal of how AG plays soft, settles far too often on low % jumpers, and doesn’t utilize his athleticism that he touts at all.

So you're saying.... 3 fouls drawn. 1 more than gordon? Which could also be star power. But I 100% agree. Gordon should be nightmare for defender off of just aggressive play. There aren't too many people that has the same combination of size, strength, speed and athleticism.... and because of that he should be taking advantage of it at some point or another at all times. Happy he's trying to become a better outside shooter and offensive player... but he needs to perfect what he could already do well before expanding.

so many questions i hope will be answered this season.

[fendilim]

That only addresses issue #1. Isaac also exists.

I have high hopes for Bamba’s ability to get to the free throw line better than Vuc.

DJ is a good free throw shooter. I don’t understand why it is unacceptable for his to shoot a better rate than everyone else on the roster. How many 90% FT shooters can you have?

What I care about (which you addressed with AG) is how little our big guys got to the line. Vuc was 41st at his position in FTA per game. Horrible.

Even if you miss the shots, force them into foul trouble and force them to change their aggresiveness because of it. Vuc does neither.

Because I’m talking about rate as in how often he gets to the line and not ft%. No one on the Magic really did. Ideally you would think that bigs would be getting to the line more often than DJ who really isn’t near contact inside.

What’s more problematic is that Vuc and Ag are high usage players that still couldn’t get to the line as bigs. For example, Embiid attempts about 8 fts per game and Vuc is almost 2 (at 1.6 last season).

AG is hitting about 4fts per game, so he gets to the line about twice a game. Compare that to Blake Griffin (his modern comp) that gets take about 6-7 fts per game. To me it’s really just a portrayal of how AG plays soft, settles far too often on low % jumpers, and doesn’t utilize his athleticism that he touts at all.

The thing with Vuc though is his rebounding and free throw attempts have actually gone down since he was forced to play perimeter since the Skiles era, because we wanted to free up the middle for players Ola-AG-EP.

2.9FTAPG isnt a lot, thats the most he has gotten in his career, but there is definitely also a correlation with his role in the offense now. Thats why his attempts have dipped.

[yoyojw17]

I have high hopes for Bamba’s ability to get to the free throw line better than Vuc.

DJ is a good free throw shooter. I don’t understand why it is unacceptable for his to shoot a better rate than everyone else on the roster. How many 90% FT shooters can you have?

What I care about (which you addressed with AG) is how little our big guys got to the line. Vuc was 41st at his position in FTA per game. Horrible.

Even if you miss the shots, force them into foul trouble and force them to change their aggresiveness because of it. Vuc does neither.

Because I’m talking about rate as in how often he gets to the line and not ft%. No one on the Magic really did. Ideally you would think that bigs would be getting to the line more often than DJ who really isn’t near contact inside.

What’s more problematic is that Vuc and Ag are high usage players that still couldn’t get to the line as bigs. For example, Embiid attempts about 8 fts per game and Vuc is almost 2 (at 1.6 last season).

AG is hitting about 4fts per game, so he gets to the line about twice a game. Compare that to Blake Griffin (his modern comp) that gets take about 6-7 fts per game. To me it’s really just a portrayal of how AG plays soft, settles far too often on low % jumpers, and doesn’t utilize his athleticism that he touts at all.

The thing with Vuc though is his rebounding and free throw attempts have actually gone down since he was forced to play perimeter since the Skiles era, because we wanted to free up the middle for players Ola-AG-EP.

2.9FTAPG isnt a lot, thats the most he has gotten in his career, but there is definitely also a correlation with his role in the offense now. Thats why his attempts have dipped.

Really hope that he is either in the post or popping out for the 3 ..... but i hope clifford doesn't want him lingering in the middle long range area all game.

[fendilim]

Because I’m talking about rate as in how often he gets to the line and not ft%. No one on the Magic really did. Ideally you would think that bigs would be getting to the line more often than DJ who really isn’t near contact inside.

What’s more problematic is that Vuc and Ag are high usage players that still couldn’t get to the line as bigs. For example, Embiid attempts about 8 fts per game and Vuc is almost 2 (at 1.6 last season).

AG is hitting about 4fts per game, so he gets to the line about twice a game. Compare that to Blake Griffin (his modern comp) that gets take about 6-7 fts per game. To me it’s really just a portrayal of how AG plays soft, settles far too often on low % jumpers, and doesn’t utilize his athleticism that he touts at all.

The thing with Vuc though is his rebounding and free throw attempts have actually gone down since he was forced to play perimeter since the Skiles era, because we wanted to free up the middle for players Ola-AG-EP.

2.9FTAPG isnt a lot, thats the most he has gotten in his career, but there is definitely also a correlation with his role in the offense now. Thats why his attempts have dipped.

Really hope that he is either in the post or popping out for the 3 ..... but i hope clifford doesn't want him lingering in the middle long range area all game.

i would suppose he’d use him like Kaminsky. So...

[pepe1991]

The thing with Vuc though is his rebounding and free throw attempts have actually gone down since he was forced to play perimeter since the Skiles era, because we wanted to free up the middle for players Ola-AG-EP.

2.9FTAPG isnt a lot, thats the most he has gotten in his career, but there is definitely also a correlation with his role in the offense now. Thats why his attempts have dipped.

Really hope that he is either in the post or popping out for the 3 ..... but i hope clifford doesn't want him lingering in the middle long range area all game.

i would suppose he’d use him like Kaminsky. So...

I would prefer more postup positions for Vuc where he can pass with good court vision than him just camping outside.
I have doubts how effective Cs who camp outside actually are, most of them don't make high enough volumen to be worth guarding from that area.
Guys like Jokić and Towns break offensive rating and advance stats, shoot above average for 3 but when you actually watch games you figure that most of the time their shots are bearly contested and they at average make 1,5 threes a game, therfore they really are not worth dragging your C out of his comfrot zone, outside free throw distance.

It's controled risk to not really be strict at guarding centers on 3 point line, Jokić for example makes 0,5 shots from 3 when he is wide open ,on 37% .
KAT from total 1,5 threes made, makes 1,1 when he is "wide open " (by nba tracking standards, closest defender outside 6 feet from him ) but he shoots 45%.

that's just my opinion , i would consider contesting wings and guards with man to contest drivers around rim on expense of chasing C off 3 point line , expecting that over 82 games most centers won't kill me off with their 3 ball, opposite of open line drives at rim and PGs,SGs and SFs shooting open jumpshots.

[zaymon]

Really hope that he is either in the post or popping out for the 3 ..... but i hope clifford doesn't want him lingering in the middle long range area all game.

i would suppose he’d use him like Kaminsky. So...

I would prefer more postup positions for Vuc where he can pass with good court vision than him just camping outside.
I have doubts how effective Cs who camp outside actually are, most of them don't make high enough volumen to be worth guarding from that area.
Guys like Jokić and Towns break offensive rating and advance stats, shoot above average for 3 but when you actually watch games you figure that most of the time their shots are bearly contested and they at average make 1,5 threes a game, therfore they really are not worth dragging your C out of his comfrot zone, outside free throw distance.

It's controled risk to not really be strict at guarding centers on 3 point line, Jokić for example makes 0,5 shots from 3 when he is wide open ,on 37% .
KAT from total 1,5 threes made, makes 1,1 when he is "wide open " (by nba tracking standards, closest defender outside 6 feet from him ) but he shoots 45%.

that's just my opinion , i would consider contesting wings and guards with man to contest drivers around rim on expense of chasing C off 3 point line , expecting that over 82 games most centers won't kill me off with their 3 ball, opposite of open line drives at rim and PGs,SGs and SFs shooting open jumpshots.

Ok so here is how i see it. Vucevic outside 3 point line gives us obvious advantage of more space at the basket. Morever he propably is our second or third most skilled passer, with players we have (players with limited handle, slowed by the ball) it could be more beneficial to pass from the high post or 3 point line to cutting players. Other benefit is transition defense. Vuc is not a speed demon, going back from halfcourt is quicker than from the post.

[PennytoShaq]

Beauty of Bamba and Isaac is they are long and fast enough to close out on a C shooting a 3, yet shade back to the rim for a weak side block. That’s one of the reason teams love long and fast players. They are basically able to contain a 3 point shooting big without opening up the paint too much. That’s one thing that Coaches and GMs are looking for in order to counter spread offenses.