I think the favorites next year, in no particular order, have to be TOR if they manage to keep Kawhi, GSW if they manage to keep KD, or Klay, or both (I just think that both will be ready to go next season, even if its not until as late as round 2 of the 2020 playoffs, they'll make it in time to make GSW as scary as ever), and LAL (sadly). I will throw MIL in there *if they pay up to keep/add-to their key players and key FO staff, (not gonna pretend Giannis won't improve from last year).
LAL, because AD is a top 4-ish transcendant star with no actual flaws, unlike their last catch of stars (Nash, Dwight, etc.), 'playoff LeBron' is still gonna be a real thing for the next 3-4 seasons (imo, especially if his shooting can stay okay or better), and I really love the third wheel in Kuzma. Kuzma is the exact kind of shooter and scorer you would love to put around LeBron and AD.. and the more I imagine those three on the floor together, the more I can see why LAL gave up the insane amount of 1st round picks value to keep Kuzma out of the deal. Kuzma is going to legitimately be a very real, 3rd star, imo. Maybe his defense gets picked on if he left LAL after a while, but it's not really an issue while he's got LeBron and AD backing him up on Defense. What LAL does with 23-28 mil in cap space left is going to be interesting. You may have to use it all up if Kemba takes the discount to go there, for four real All Star impact kind of players. And then I'd hunt for insane value pickups, starting with the backyard I know best, pitching Khem Birch like he's the damn savior of the LAL franchise, with LeBron and AD in the freakin room right there. We know here that Birch is a very legitimate 1st string and high level 2nd string C, and if they can get him to come on for cheap 1-2 years, *hopefully convincing him that they will eventually pay him fairly with bird right thresholds adding up *wink wink*. Then you hope to get lucky on some shooters and other 'loyalty plays' for the likes of Rondo, McGee, maybe 1 or 2 (or 3) out of Thabo, Seth, Ellington, Meeks, Rivers, J.R., Stauskas, Hezonja, Wesley, Ariza. Splitting the cap space out if Kemba is out, leads to some interesting possibilities too; one of the first ones comes again from the backyard I know the best, offering 18 per to Vooch and the rest (5-10 mil per) to T Ross.
What does this mean for ORL? Put up, or get out. Don't be naive and don't play the game if you don't like what big markets like LAL and NYK can pull off, and if it bothers you. It didn't bother title-winning teams like TOR, DAL, CLE, and SAS more recently. Want to play the game? Be willing to pay 10+ mil per and a small piece of your very own ownership equity just to get one single FO executive. Imho, that's clearly where it all starts.
My sleeper picks would then be LAC (FA pending), HOU (Harden & CP3), PHI (if Butler, Tobes & J.J. sign PHI), and ORL
