PrimeThyme wrote:tiderulz wrote:PrimeThyme wrote:I mean if you want to throw a max contract at Kemba next offseason that is something I could get behind. But throwing 20 plus mill a year for a guy like Rozier is risky in my opinion. We've seen the success or rather lack of success that most of the players that have left Stevens system have had in other places. He's primarily been an inefficient guy for his entire career anyways even in that system. He shot under 40% last year and while he did shoot 38% from 3, during his big run in the playoffs that everyone points to he was already back down to 33%.
I think cap flexibility is important. Our last rebuild can give some credence to that. Throwing money at a player just because you might not have anything else to spend it on that summer isn't always a smart one. Cap space can always be used to take back a bigger contract in a trade. I fully believe that WeHams focus going forward will be to continue to maintain cap flexibility as well until this young core is closer to making that jump. I dont think next year will be that year.
might be overstated a bit. Crowder had more shots in Boston than in Cleveland. He looked back to normal in Utah except for his 3 pt %. Thomas was hurt when he was moved. Avery Bradley played about the same in Detroit as Boston. So who are these people that didnt play well after leaving Stevens?
If you look deeper into the advanced stats it's pretty clear. Especially for those guys like Crowder and Bradley that you mentioned (Bradley had a .2 BPM in Boston and it plummeted to an awful -4.5 last year, Crowder had a 1.6 BPM in Boston, dropped below -1.5 once he left) whose BPM and Defensive and offensive ratings plummeted once they left Boston. Both players were impact players in Stevens system in Boston but didn't make near the impact once they left. Both Crowder and Bradley were also guys that were thought to have the potential to take on a much bigger role as people are saying with Rozier now when they still played in that system, neither of them have and neither look any close to doing so.
BMP shouldn't be the tell all metric. BPM relies on a player's box score information
and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance. If you're on a good team, your BMP will be better. BPM does not take into account playing time – it is purely a rate stat. ...and again, it's based off box scores.
There are limitations on all box score stats – if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured.
It's an old tired myth that doubters like to use as fear factor tactics to defend their stance. I don't remember people saying Crowder and Bradley had uptapped potential when they were in Boston. Seems to me they were being maxed out. If any other teams wanted them, I think the most they could've been hoping for was steady contribution, not improved contribution.
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I agree with you that cap flexibility is important, but I don't agree with you that they (WeHam) are going to save up until they can spend big on an established super star after the young ones are ready to turn the corner down the line. Their clock is ticking to produce a winner. They've already had 2 summers of basically staying still in FA. If you think there is going to be a 3rd summer in a row where they stay still, I think that's a miscalculation on your part. Their biggest new FA acquisition has been a $6M per year, Jonathon Simmons.
Next summer is gonna be huge. Vucevic and Ross will be FAs. Mozgov will be an expiring contract. They just gave AG a new 4 year deal and next summer he'll have 3 years left. These will not be wasted years of rookie development and low spending... with the plan to "spend big" at the backend of AG's deal.
What they need to do is start aligning this team to win with AG. AG is 23 years old. Rozier is 24 years old. Fournier is 25 years old. Bringing in a 19 year old rookie PG and waiting 3 years for him to develop is a bad plan. Especially when it fails like Elf. Why do people want a 29 year old Kemba Walker? This would be like us adding Serge Ibaka all over again... trying to fast forward the process with ready to win vets in order to try to chase the playoffs... with "young guys who are ready to turn the corner" in Payton, Fournier, Gordon, Vuc... We've been there, failed that.
I'm all in favor of bringing in Rozier and building a model that has the potential to be sustainable for a long time. There are stud wings in the draft that we can bring up behind Fournier. PGs... that cupboard is looking pretty bare in next year's draft.
Rozier, Fournier, Gordon, Isaac, Bamba with a lottery SG is a lot more favorable to me than drafting a rookie PG who needs 3 years to develop or signing a 29 year old Walker who's already had injury riddled seasons. We were blessed that Gordon took less than the max to resign. We can now afford to build around him with young budding players in his age range, so let's do it.
I don't want to have to compete with PHX in FA. Trade for him now, get his Restricted status and put all the leverage on our side in the summer.
