Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG

[basketballRob]

and they may have tried but overall I knew we w rent getting a franchise player standing pat at 6.

You think they tried? I don't. They havn't done anything but sit on their hands since being here. Would Memphis have turned down Evan, Simmons, #6 and the OKC pick for Parsons and #4? If they did I woulda added on a protected 19 pick. No way they turn that down when you also consider there's a good chance they still get JJJ at 6. What's more likely a FO that has done nothing but sit on their hands got ballsy and made a move like this and it was turned down? Or they were smacking high fives when they relised the long armed player was gonna be available?

I don't know either way. I was just acknowledgeding the possibility. I do agree that they lean towards measurables rather than skill and to me thats dangerous.

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That's just analytics. Overwhelmingly if you are certain measurables you are by far more likely to become a good NBA player. If I was a GM that's what I would do. Analytics is why I liked JJJ number 1 this year and WCJ 2. I wouldn't have picked Young in the top 10 and so far that looks about right.

[Knightro]

My only question is if we leaked or pretty much finalized the trade with the Griz and they KNEW that their trade with Dal was broken up what do they do? Thats the question I woulda loved to have known.

I don't think Memphis trades down at all, but in your hypothetical scenario I think Atlanta would either have just picked Doncic at 3 (most likely) or rolled the dice that the Magic would have still opted to pick one of the two big men and not Young at 4.

IF the Magic pick Young

3. Hawks - Doncic
4. Magic - Young
5. Mavericks - Jackson
6. Grizzlies - Bamba

[npiper17]

I’m happy with the Bamba pick, but like I felt on draft night, there will always be that part of me that wishes we attached multiple firsts to a deal and moved up for Doncic. He is and always has been a generational type talent imo. If our plan was to hire Clifford and compete for the playoffs this year anyways moving up for Doncic would have just made even more sense as he would have helped us win now and in the future and those future picks we would have given up wouldn’t have been as valuable.

Bamba will hopefully help in the future but that’s a long way away from happening imo and the best player on our team plays his position. I’m not regretting us drafting Bamba, but I’d be lying if I said it’s not going to bother me just a little seeing Doncic tear it up in Dallas knowing that he could have been ours.

This is why I’m not as happy about the pick if Vuc sticks around for another 2-3 years. This organization has an identity crisis between timeframes, what they consider is a “competitive” roster and what “rebuilding” means.

I was fine with Bamba in a vacuum, but this FO has put themselves in a particularly bad situation IMO because of their moves or lack thereof come this deadline.

They are either

1. Going to get less for Vuc on a half a season expiring deal after he takes Orlando out of lottery range.

2. He’s going to walk after he doesn’t agree to a 1-2 year deal

3. They resign him for ridiculous money, and multiple seasons, to play 30+ mpg over the #6 pick in last year’s draft. While making Orlando competitive enough for a playoff appearance, but still not good enough to acquire real talent.

Pick your poison.

I hear your argument but think it can be framed in a positive rather than negative way.

There’s plenty of time before the deadline to determine if this Vuc is here to stay - if so then it could be worth seeing what Bamba’s trade value is around the league. Could he bring back a high-level player at a position of need?

I’m not saying I’d lean towards trading him but when you’re recognised as doing well or playing above expectations (as the Magic are currently), then that is mainly a good thing because the strength of your asset base increases.

I do take your point, however, that re-signing Vuc whilst keeping hold of Bamba would be puzzling.

[fklt]

The only thing about that is the draft order is locked on the afternoon of the draft. It's not like the NFL where you can actually trade picks in real time. You have to draft players and then trade their rights afterwards.

So Atlanta had to make their decision not knowing what was going to happen behind them.

With that being the case, the Hawks only had 1 choice and that was to pick Doncic at 3.

If it materialized where Young was available at 5, they'd make the swap, but make no mistake the Hawks were comfortable coming out of that draft with Luka Doncic at the 3rd overall pick.

They had to be too because they risked Memphis at 4 or someone else moving into the 4th spot and blowing up the deal.

dude, you keep saying things like "hawks wanted this", "hawks were comfortable with that" with confidence, which are basically notions that you have no way of knowing. you might as well be making **** up.

we can only know what's already out there. hawks wanted young, hawks got young. you only trade down when you think you can get the guy you want with a lower pick than you have. you feel that your preferences are different from the perceived consensus. for all we know, they might have even hated doncic. they drafted doncic, because dallas was willing to give a protected pick for doncic. if some other team would offer more than that for melvin frazier, you can be sure that they would be drafting melvin fricking frazier. on the other hand, assumption that dallas would have drafted young is also that, just an assumption. only thing we know is they loved doncic, and didn't care enough about any other guy that would fall to them.

that means if you really want to, you could pry away anyone but young from atlanta, and anyone but doncic from dallas. it's an open market, just a matter of assets you're willing to provide. my own personal gut feeling was just an unprotected first would be enough, because young didn't make sense for dallas and atlanta didn't dare to ask more than a protected pick from them. If I'm wrong, fine, then you just offer more. if you're staying put, that just means you didn't care enough. as this management didn't care enough to do anything at this point, I'm gonna assume that is once again the case here.

[Knightro]

dude, you keep saying things like "hawks wanted this", "hawks were comfortable with that" with confidence, which are basically notions that you have no way of knowing. you might as well be making **** up.

we can only know what's already out there. hawks wanted young, hawks got young. you only trade down when you think you can get the guy you want with a lower pick than you have. you feel that your preferences are different from the perceived consensus. for all we know, they might have even hated doncic. they drafted doncic, because dallas was willing to give a protected pick for doncic. if some other team would offer more than that for melvin frazier, you can be sure that they would be drafting melvin fricking frazier. on the other hand, assumption that dallas would have drafted young is also that, just an assumption. only thing we know is they loved doncic, and didn't care enough about any other guy that would fall to them.

that means if you really want to, you could pry away anyone but young from atlanta, and anyone but doncic from dallas. it's an open market, just a matter of assets you're willing to provide. my own personal gut feeling was just an unprotected first would be enough, because young didn't make sense for dallas and atlanta didn't dare to ask more than a protected pick from them. If I'm wrong, fine, then you just offer more. if you're staying put, that just means you didn't care enough. as this management didn't care enough to do anything at this point, I'm gonna assume that is once again the case here.

I keep saying it because it's common sense.

The Hawks chose to draft Luka Doncic at 3. They didn't choose to draft Trae Young at 3.

Atlanta had literally no control over what was going to happen with the 4th overall pick. The Hawks were certainly confident Young was going to make it to 5, but they couldn't be 100% sure. Memphis could have taken Young themselves or someone could have blown Memphis away with an offer when they got on the clock and the Grizzlies could have opted to trade that pick to Orlando, Chicago, New York or any number of teams who wanted Young.

The Hawks, however slim the chance was, opened themselves up to the possibility of being "stuck" with Doncic at 3 if someone mucked up their planned trade with Dallas. Obviously they were comfortable with the possibility of things going down like that or else THEY WOULDN'T HAVE DRAFTED DONCIC, THEY WOULD HAVE JUST DRAFTED YOUNG.

Clearly the Hawks were willing to roll with one of two outcomes.

1. Acquiring Trae Young and a 2019 1st round pick from Dallas in a trade
2. Drafting Luka Doncic

[fklt]

I keep saying it because it's common sense.

The Hawks chose to draft Luka Doncic at 3. They didn't choose to draft Trae Young at 3.

Atlanta had literally no control over what was going to happen with the 4th overall pick. Memphis could have taken Young themselves or traded that pick to Orlando, Chicago, New York or any number of teams who planned on taking Young.

The Hawks, however slim the chance was, opened themselves up to the possibility of being "stuck" with Doncic at 3 if someone mucked up their planned trade with Dallas. Obviously they were comfortable with the possibility of things going down like that or else THEY WOULDN'T HAVE DRAFTED DONCIC, THEY WOULD HAVE JUST DRAFTED YOUNG.

Clearly the Hawks were willing to roll with one of two outcomes.

1. Acquiring Trae Young and a 2019 1st round pick from Dallas
2. Drafting Luka Doncic

again assumptions. do you know for sure that memphis was not one of teams that were trying to trade up for doncic? why wouldn't they, that's also common sense isn't it? hawks knew they valued young more than the rest of the league valued him. that's the only fact here. only certain deduction that you can make from what has transpired.

[Knightro]

again assumptions. do you know for sure that memphis was not one of teams that were trying to trade up for doncic? why wouldn't they, that's also common sense isn't it? hawks knew they valued young more than the rest of the league valued him. that's the only fact here. only certain deduction that you can make from what has transpired.

You're not making any logical sense

If the Hawks were 100%, no questions asked, we have to get him, dead set on Trae Young and no one else, they would just have drafted him at 3. Period.

It could have been a one in a million chance, but the Hawks opened themselves up to the possibility, however slight it may have been, of NOT ending up with Trae Young and ending up with Luka Doncic in the end.

This is really not a difficult concept to grasp. Even if the Hawks were totally confident that Memphis was NOT going to pick Young, there was always the chance the Grizzlies could have gotten a godfather offer and traded back.

With that possibility in play, there's no other logical deduction other than the Hawks WERE comfortable walking out of draft night with Doncic at 3 because they made a decision to pass on Young and pick Doncic with a team drafting in-between their planned trade.

By doing that, the Hawks created a (slim) statistical chance of them ending up with Doncic and not Young.

[MagicMatic]

I’m happy with the Bamba pick, but like I felt on draft night, there will always be that part of me that wishes we attached multiple firsts to a deal and moved up for Doncic. He is and always has been a generational type talent imo. If our plan was to hire Clifford and compete for the playoffs this year anyways moving up for Doncic would have just made even more sense as he would have helped us win now and in the future and those future picks we would have given up wouldn’t have been as valuable.

Bamba will hopefully help in the future but that’s a long way away from happening imo and the best player on our team plays his position. I’m not regretting us drafting Bamba, but I’d be lying if I said it’s not going to bother me just a little seeing Doncic tear it up in Dallas knowing that he could have been ours.

This is why I’m not as happy about the pick if Vuc sticks around for another 2-3 years. This organization has an identity crisis between timeframes, what they consider is a “competitive” roster and what “rebuilding” means.

I was fine with Bamba in a vacuum, but this FO has put themselves in a particularly bad situation IMO because of their moves or lack thereof come this deadline.

They are either

1. Going to get less for Vuc on a half a season expiring deal after he takes Orlando out of lottery range.

2. He’s going to walk after he doesn’t agree to a 1-2 year deal

3. They resign him for ridiculous money, and multiple seasons, to play 30+ mpg over the #6 pick in last year’s draft. While making Orlando competitive enough for a playoff appearance, but still not good enough to acquire real talent.

Pick your poison.

I hear your argument but think it can be framed in a positive rather than negative way.

There’s plenty of time before the deadline to determine if this Vuc is here to stay - if so then it could be worth seeing what Bamba’s trade value is around the league. Could he bring back a high-level player at a position of need?

I’m not saying I’d lean towards trading him but when you’re recognised as doing well or playing above expectations (as the Magic are currently), then that is mainly a good thing because the strength of your asset base increases.

I do take your point, however, that re-signing Vuc whilst keeping hold of Bamba would be puzzling.

Usually I would agree if he had more than half a season left on his deal, but his main value even playing well in a trade would be putting a team with established talent into championship contention. He is on an expiring deal and will be looking for a very lucrative contract. That’s going to limit the return as opposed to trading him last season.

Basically WeHam took the risk, doubled down on drafting Bamba as the future piece to pair with Isaac, didn’t trade Vuc, and now here they are. They look pretty clueless with asset management with this organization so far in their tenure.

[fklt]

You're not making any logical sense
****
This is really not a difficult concept to grasp. Even if the Hawks were totally confident that Memphis was NOT going to pick Young, there was always the chance the Grizzlies could have gotten a godfather offer and traded back.

dude, you're making me painfully spell it out.

if teams are calling you with offers, asking you to draft doncic for them, you would know then that they would draft doncic given the decision choose between doncic and anyone else. as in, if memphis is calling you for doncic, then that means they would draft doncic before young. and if atlanta wants young, they can be pretty much certain at that point that drafting doncic and trading down is the objectively preferable decision to drafting young directly. if they're still drafting young directly, no matter how in love they are with him, they are just dumb.

this perceived value other teams put on the players that you don't want is the thing that enables the possibility of a trade down. it could be based on certain information, an educated guess, or a calculated risk.

if you have the thing that grizzlies want, how the hell other teams are going to beat your offer. no teams behind grizzlies have can offer grizzlies someone that they can't already access. you're the godfather. and even in the case of a minuscule chance of someone offering lebron james for young against your best estimation of you liking him more than most, nothing changes. GMing is a game of chances, drafting doncic would still be the right move. and if you think that minuscule chance is too big for your liking, you would trade with grizzlies directly and be done with it that way. so, once again, even if you hate doncic, as long as you know he carries the most value, you're gonna draft him. period.

[Knightro]

dude, you're making me painfully spell it out.

if teams are calling you with offers, asking you to draft doncic for them, you would know then that they would draft doncic given the decision choose between doncic and anyone else. as in, if memphis is calling you for doncic, then that means they would draft doncic before young. and if atlanta wants young, they can be pretty much certain at that point that drafting doncic and trading down is the objectively preferable decision to drafting young directly. if they're still drafting young directly, no matter how in love they are with him, they are just dumb.

this perceived value other teams put on the players that you don't want is the thing that enables the possibility of a trade down. it could be based on certain information, an educated guess, or a calculated risk.

if you have the thing that grizzlies want, how the hell other teams are going to beat your offer. no teams behind grizzlies have can offer grizzlies someone that they can't already access. you're the godfather. and even in the case of a minuscule chance of someone offering lebron james for young against your best estimation of you liking him more than most, nothing changes. GMing is a game of chances, drafting doncic would still be the right move. and if you think that minuscule change is too big for your liking, you would trade with grizzlies directly and be done with it that way. so, once again, even if you hate doncic, as long as you know he carries the most value, you're gonna draft him. period.

You keep talking about the Grizzlies, but the Hawks didn't pre-negotiate a deal with the Grizzlies. They pre-negotiated a deal with the Mavericks.

Literally nothing you've said above changes the fact that Atlanta at 3 had a deal in place with the team picking 5th without having any control over what the team picking 4th was going to do.

Yes. The Hawks (correctly) assumed that the Grizzlies weren't going to muck up their negotiated deal with the Mavericks by trading out of the 4th spot or by picking Young directly for themselves. But what would have happened if the Grizzlies DID muck up the Hawks/Mavs deal? The Hawks would have been stuck with Doncic.

Clearly Atlanta was fine with the possibility (however minuscule it may have been) of getting their trade with Dallas mucked up by Memphis at 4. If they weren't fine with that possibility, they simply would have picked Young at 3 and that would have been that.

[NotACat]

Can we stop talking about the draft that already happened please? This thread is for speculation

Also, shouldn't there be a new thread?

[fklt]

You keep talking about the Grizzlies, but the Hawks didn't pre-negotiate a deal with the Grizzlies. They pre-negotiated a deal with the Mavericks.

Literally nothing you've said above changes the fact that Atlanta at 3 had a deal in place with the team picking 5th without having any control over what the team picking 4th was going to do.

Yes. The Hawks (correctly) assumed that the Grizzlies weren't going to muck up their negotiated deal with the Mavericks by trading out of the 4th spot or by picking Young directly for themselves. But what would have happened if the Grizzlies DID muck up the Hawks/Mavs deal? The Hawks would have been stuck with Doncic.

Clearly Atlanta was fine with the possibility (however minuscule it may have been) of getting their trade with Dallas mucked up by Memphis at 4. If they weren't fine with that possibility, they simply would have picked Young at 3 and that would have been that.

which brings us to my initial point of; you seriously having no idea how much value hawks were putting on doncic as a player. you have your guesses. you can have them, it's cool. I'm just bothered by the fact that you treating them as the reality in your arguments.

[Knightro]

which brings us to my initial point of; you seriously having no idea how much value hawks were putting on doncic as a player. you have your guesses. you can have them, it's cool. I'm just bothered by the fact that you treating them as the reality in your arguments.

This is the last thing I'm going to say on this...

If the Hawks weren't comfortable with the possibility of being "stuck" with Doncic, they wouldn't have picked him at 3. They would have picked Young at 3.

Yes, the odds were remarkably slim that the Hawks/Mavs deal was going to get mucked up by Memphis at 4, but the odds were still greater than zero. Atlanta had no control over what Memphis was going to do.

[ChosenSavior]

Locking up this thread everyone since it's over 100 pages. If someone can create a new Spec thread, it'll be much appreciated.