Regular Season Game 71: Atlanta Hawks (24-46) at Orlando Magic (32-38)

[Catledge]

Nice first game for MCW. I'll take medium-good defense, good defensive rebounding, and 8 FTAs from him every night. If he can hit a shot, we might have a real backup PG.

[Knightro]

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[bargnanimvp]

Don't think Deadman ever took a NBA 3 until 3 years ago. Now, he hittin em at 37%. To all those who think a player are nearly a finished product at 23, Deadman proves you wrong!

I find it kind of strange that so many Cs have been able to add a three point shot so quickly. They go from not taking any to becoming league average or better within two years after they start shooting them. Meanwhile we got countless guards and forwards who take forever to develop their shot even though they've been taking them for a decade+.

i think it'd be a mix of some big men being a blank slate for a shooting coach to work with and others already being able to hit 3s in practice and just needing the coach to let them go for it. Guards who can't shoot probably have ingrained bad habits and more mental issues around the shot too because they are expected to make them while a big man making them is a bonus.

[OrlandO]

I think the scouting report is out on Birch or maybe he doesn't have as much energy to expend since he's playing consistently now.... 0 blocks in the last 7 games.

[woosah]

Well you go Mr. Iwundu. I may have to saute up some crow if you keep doing that. Nice job.

[pepe1991]

so you think this hawks team would be better with out him?

yeah he isn't getting all the wins this season but the team is god awful and they'd be even worse with out Trae. He's also a rookie.

He has 18 points ,6 rebound and 4 assists tonight, his team has been outscored by 15 points when he is on the floor.
He is actually by all metrics the worst defender in whole league , with 450 + player in it.

Would his team be better without him? No , because they don't even have backup, but just like his college team, he really doesn't make team better by riding 27% usage rate and being paper on wind on defense.

Did you watch the game? Most of our mistakes when he was in the game was where Trae was nowhere near the ball. There is a negative chemistry with one of our players and Trae that we have seen in the last two games but to say he isn't impactful is BS. You clearly don't watch our games outside of the ones v. Orlando where he struggles v. Augustin for some reason. Orlando, Milwaukee and New York have been real pains in our asses this year.

His RPM ( pretty much actual impact behind numbers) ranks him 78# among 95 PGs in nba and dead last player in defensive plus minus.
His real value on a floor is measurable by RPM to Brandon Knight, Dennis Smith and Devin Harris but he puts up raw counting numbers that mask his true colors ( just like he did at college )

problem here is understanding what happends if xy player doesn't take FGA, that FGA won't disappear, it will just be taken by other player. That's why you have things like value over replacment,TS% net rating, win share, real plus minus.
His usage rate ,especially after ASG is identical to Steph Curry and Paul George.
Look i understand he is rookie, but to me his career projection looks similar to Devin Booker's. Great counting stats until you dig bit deeper under them.

And to make things that much worst , you guys traded one of best rookies in last decade for him (who's actually good defender ) and who is already 6th in ORPM , 13 overall (among SFs) and who is top 6-8 SF in nba already.

[Knightro]

His RPM ( pretty much actual impact behind numbers) ranks him 78# among 95 PGs in nba and dead last player in defensive plus minus.
His real value on a floor is measurable by RPM to Brandon Knight, Dennis Smith and Devin Harris but he puts up raw counting numbers that mask his true colors ( just like he did at college )

problem here is understanding what happends if xy player doesn't take FGA, that FGA won't disappear, it will just be taken by other player. That's why you have things like value over replacment,TS% net rating, win share, real plus minus.
His usage rate ,especially after ASG is identical to Steph Curry and Paul George.
Look i understand he is rookie, but to me his career projection looks similar to Devin Booker's. Great counting stats until you dig bit deeper under them.

And to make things that much worst , you guys traded one of best rookies in last decade for him (who's actually good defender ) and who is already 6th in ORPM , 13 overall (among SFs) and who is top 6-8 SF in nba already.

Just curious... have you tracked all of Young’s numbers and metrics SINCE November?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that the guy had a historically pathetic November (35% FG, 19% 3PT, 44.3 TS%, 97.4 ORTG, -13.4 NET RTG) that essentially submarined his season long numbers.

If you throw out that one month, and it stands to reason as that was his first full month that he’s improving and not regressing, all of his offensive numbers and metrics magically are a lot better.

He’s been a legitimately good offensive player for at least 3.5 straight months now. Yeah he stinks on D, but most young guys do.

If you are going to continue to insist on using full season stats to support your arguments for or against players, you’ll routinely lose the ability to see if guys are progressing or regressing. This is especially important for rookies and young players as they’re much more likely to have more noticeable ups and downs early in their careers as they figure out what they can and can’t do in the league.

[Knightro]

To put it in a lot more simplified terms Pepe...

If a rookie starts his career with 25 horrendously awful games, but closes his first season with 57 good games, it stands to reason that he’s improving and is probably going to continue to be more like the player over the longer sample size than the smaller one.

Even if the first 25 games were so bad that they’re sinking his overall season numbers, right?

[pepe1991]

His RPM ( pretty much actual impact behind numbers) ranks him 78# among 95 PGs in nba and dead last player in defensive plus minus.
His real value on a floor is measurable by RPM to Brandon Knight, Dennis Smith and Devin Harris but he puts up raw counting numbers that mask his true colors ( just like he did at college )

problem here is understanding what happends if xy player doesn't take FGA, that FGA won't disappear, it will just be taken by other player. That's why you have things like value over replacment,TS% net rating, win share, real plus minus.
His usage rate ,especially after ASG is identical to Steph Curry and Paul George.
Look i understand he is rookie, but to me his career projection looks similar to Devin Booker's. Great counting stats until you dig bit deeper under them.

And to make things that much worst , you guys traded one of best rookies in last decade for him (who's actually good defender ) and who is already 6th in ORPM , 13 overall (among SFs) and who is top 6-8 SF in nba already.

Just curious... have you tracked all of Young’s numbers and metrics SINCE November?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that the guy had a historically pathetic November (35% FG, 19% 3PT, 44.3 TS%, 97.4 ORTG, -13.4 NET RTG) that essentially submarined his season long numbers.

If you throw out that one month, and it stands to reason as that was his first full month that he’s improving and not regressing, all of his offensive numbers and metrics magically are a lot better.

He’s been a legitimately good offensive player for at least 3.5 straight months now. Yeah he stinks on D, but most young guys do.

If you are going to continue to insist on using full season stats to support your arguments for or against players, you’ll routinely lose the ability to see if guys are progressing or regressing. This is especially important for rookies and young players as they’re much more likely to have more noticeable ups and downs early in their careers as they figure out what they can and can’t do in the league.

Why cherry pick ? During November, when teams kind a prophile between playoff and tanking teams, his Hawks lost 10 in a row and 13 of 16 that month.

As for his "improved" stats ,they didn't beat playoff team since January 28th when they beat Clippers. Almost all Hawks wins are against other tanking teams. (16/24 to be more specific ).
As for splits through months, it's true November was disaster ( -16,4 +/- ) but last month ,in February, his +/- was still -5,2.


Saying he stinks on defense like other rookies is being ignorant. He sucked on defense at every stage and competition he ever faced. He was walking disaster on defense at college as well, in nba he is the worst defender ,and there are other 50 or so rookies, yet he is rock bottom.

Did he improve since November? Sure. But when you are by stats the worst nba starter can you even go anywhere but up ? Again, he is not trash player, but i highly doubt team lead by him will ever see second round of playoffs. That's my opinion, i might be wrong ( JJ jr for example , i thought that shot will never work ) or i could be right (EP since 2016). Time will tell.

[Catledge]

My $0.02 on the Trae conversation: I imagine that his shooting numbers will pick up, and he'll eventually be a pretty high level offensive player. But it seems like he will be a pretty bad defender for his entire career.

[drsd]

Didn't play our best offensively but we did enough to get it done. Actually liked how we played defensively. Nice that Iwundu and MCW stepped up off the bench to offset Ross's bad game tonight.

Orlando had 30 bench point in a game where Rosas struggled. WOW!

..

[drsd]

MCW pretty much stinks, but if he's going to play this hard every night in an effort to get another 10-day deal, then I'm all for it.

Carter-Williams on one day's practice already looks better than a well-practiced Grant.

Orlando has two more games in the 10-day contract, with the 25th being the front end of a BtB where Orlando looks certain to need Carter-Williams for he 26th March game (i.e. he kind of must be resigned to at least another 10-day deal).

Frankly I think that if on 22 March Carter-Williams puts in a similar performance as this game, rather than getting a second 10-day contract, the Magic will just outright sign him for the rest of the season.


..

[BadMofoPimp]

His RPM ( pretty much actual impact behind numbers) ranks him 78# among 95 PGs in nba and dead last player in defensive plus minus.
His real value on a floor is measurable by RPM to Brandon Knight, Dennis Smith and Devin Harris but he puts up raw counting numbers that mask his true colors ( just like he did at college )

problem here is understanding what happends if xy player doesn't take FGA, that FGA won't disappear, it will just be taken by other player. That's why you have things like value over replacment,TS% net rating, win share, real plus minus.
His usage rate ,especially after ASG is identical to Steph Curry and Paul George.
Look i understand he is rookie, but to me his career projection looks similar to Devin Booker's. Great counting stats until you dig bit deeper under them.

And to make things that much worst , you guys traded one of best rookies in last decade for him (who's actually good defender ) and who is already 6th in ORPM , 13 overall (among SFs) and who is top 6-8 SF in nba already.

Just curious... have you tracked all of Young’s numbers and metrics SINCE November?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that the guy had a historically pathetic November (35% FG, 19% 3PT, 44.3 TS%, 97.4 ORTG, -13.4 NET RTG) that essentially submarined his season long numbers.

If you throw out that one month, and it stands to reason as that was his first full month that he’s improving and not regressing, all of his offensive numbers and metrics magically are a lot better.

He’s been a legitimately good offensive player for at least 3.5 straight months now. Yeah he stinks on D, but most young guys do.

If you are going to continue to insist on using full season stats to support your arguments for or against players, you’ll routinely lose the ability to see if guys are progressing or regressing. This is especially important for rookies and young players as they’re much more likely to have more noticeable ups and downs early in their careers as they figure out what they can and can’t do in the league.

I think over the next 3-4 years, Young is going to prove alot of haterz all Wrong!

[pepe1991]

His RPM ( pretty much actual impact behind numbers) ranks him 78# among 95 PGs in nba and dead last player in defensive plus minus.
His real value on a floor is measurable by RPM to Brandon Knight, Dennis Smith and Devin Harris but he puts up raw counting numbers that mask his true colors ( just like he did at college )

problem here is understanding what happends if xy player doesn't take FGA, that FGA won't disappear, it will just be taken by other player. That's why you have things like value over replacment,TS% net rating, win share, real plus minus.
His usage rate ,especially after ASG is identical to Steph Curry and Paul George.
Look i understand he is rookie, but to me his career projection looks similar to Devin Booker's. Great counting stats until you dig bit deeper under them.

And to make things that much worst , you guys traded one of best rookies in last decade for him (who's actually good defender ) and who is already 6th in ORPM , 13 overall (among SFs) and who is top 6-8 SF in nba already.

Just curious... have you tracked all of Young’s numbers and metrics SINCE November?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that the guy had a historically pathetic November (35% FG, 19% 3PT, 44.3 TS%, 97.4 ORTG, -13.4 NET RTG) that essentially submarined his season long numbers.

If you throw out that one month, and it stands to reason as that was his first full month that he’s improving and not regressing, all of his offensive numbers and metrics magically are a lot better.

He’s been a legitimately good offensive player for at least 3.5 straight months now. Yeah he stinks on D, but most young guys do.

If you are going to continue to insist on using full season stats to support your arguments for or against players, you’ll routinely lose the ability to see if guys are progressing or regressing. This is especially important for rookies and young players as they’re much more likely to have more noticeable ups and downs early in their careers as they figure out what they can and can’t do in the league.

I think over the next 3-4 years, Young is going to prove alot of haterz all Wrong!

If he does, good for him, i'm not going to lose my mind or argue people about player who isn't even on Magic

[BadMofoPimp]

Just curious... have you tracked all of Young’s numbers and metrics SINCE November?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that the guy had a historically pathetic November (35% FG, 19% 3PT, 44.3 TS%, 97.4 ORTG, -13.4 NET RTG) that essentially submarined his season long numbers.

If you throw out that one month, and it stands to reason as that was his first full month that he’s improving and not regressing, all of his offensive numbers and metrics magically are a lot better.

He’s been a legitimately good offensive player for at least 3.5 straight months now. Yeah he stinks on D, but most young guys do.

If you are going to continue to insist on using full season stats to support your arguments for or against players, you’ll routinely lose the ability to see if guys are progressing or regressing. This is especially important for rookies and young players as they’re much more likely to have more noticeable ups and downs early in their careers as they figure out what they can and can’t do in the league.

I think over the next 3-4 years, Young is going to prove alot of haterz all Wrong!

If he does, good for him, i'm not going to lose my mind or argue people about player who isn't even on Magic

For me, if he does become an all-star level player, he will just be fun to watch and compete against. I won't just hate on him forever just because the Magic didn't draft him like many do.

[Knightro]

Why cherry pick ? During November, when teams kind a prophile between playoff and tanking teams, his Hawks lost 10 in a row and 13 of 16 that month.

As for his "improved" stats ,they didn't beat playoff team since January 28th when they beat Clippers. Almost all Hawks wins are against other tanking teams. (16/24 to be more specific ).
As for splits through months, it's true November was disaster ( -16,4 +/- ) but last month ,in February, his +/- was still -5,2.

Saying he stinks on defense like other rookies is being ignorant. He sucked on defense at every stage and competition he ever faced. He was walking disaster on defense at college as well, in nba he is the worst defender ,and there are other 50 or so rookies, yet he is rock bottom.

Did he improve since November? Sure. But when you are by stats the worst nba starter can you even go anywhere but up ? Again, he is not trash player, but i highly doubt team lead by him will ever see second round of playoffs. That's my opinion, i might be wrong ( JJ jr for example , i thought that shot will never work ) or i could be right (EP since 2016). Time will tell.

Couple things...

1. I bring up November (and we can lump October in with November if you want because it doesn't change anything) because that was Young's first full month of professional basketball.

Your point about cherry picking would be more valid if Young had a good November, good December, horrific January, good February, good March etc. But because his worst month of the season by far also happened to be his first month of pro basketball, it stands to reason (for me at least) that Young needed some time to find his sea legs.

Once he found his sea legs and made the necessary adjustments, things took off. He took his lumps those first 4-6 weeks and has been really effective ever since.

2. Bringing up the Hawks record when talking about Trae Young's performance is not only not relevant to Young's individual performance, it's also disingenuous to the overall argument as Young joined a really bad basketball team and they are going to be marginally better this season.

You mentioned cherry picking numbers... Well I found it little funny that you used overall RPM to cite Young's performance as a negative (which his poor DRPM drags down), but did you know even with his horrendous first six weeks that Young is the 20th ranked PG in ORPM for the season?

Here's a fun fact...

At the end of November, Trae Young ranked 175th in the NBA in ORPM.

Today? He's 46th in the NBA.

That means since November, which again was tremendously bad, Young statistically has been one of the 20-25 best players in all of basketball.

He hasn't just "improved" since November. He's been as good as Doncic offensively from December til now.

[Knightro]

My $0.02 on the Trae conversation: I imagine that his shooting numbers will pick up, and he'll eventually be a pretty high level offensive player. But it seems like he will be a pretty bad defender for his entire career.

He's already a high level offensive player IMO.

Since December 1st... Young has basically averaged 20 pts and 8 asts a night with an approximate .430/.380/.840 slash line at just 20 years old.

[pepe1991]

My $0.02 on the Trae conversation: I imagine that his shooting numbers will pick up, and he'll eventually be a pretty high level offensive player. But it seems like he will be a pretty bad defender for his entire career.

He's already a high level offensive player IMO.

Since December 1st... Young has basically averaged 20 pts and 8 asts a night with an approximate .430/.380/.840 slash line at just 20 years old.

I would prefer Doncic with 1 leg, while playing blindfolded over Young. At least i won't see transition 40 footer while he is only Hawks player who passed half court.

[Knightro]

I would prefer Doncic with 1 leg, while playing blindfolded over Young. At least i won't see transition 40 footer while he is only Hawks player who passed half court.

Doncic is the better defensive player by a pretty wide margin, but Young has pretty much been the same caliber/a slightly better offensive player for the last 3.5 months.

They're both very good offensively. Doncic is a better prospect overall because of his defensive capabilities.

We'll see what ends up happening with the lotto pick Dallas ends up having to send to Atlanta, but what looked like a horrific deal for the Hawks at the time isn't quite so bad now.

[bargnanimvp]

He has 18 points ,6 rebound and 4 assists tonight, his team has been outscored by 15 points when he is on the floor.
He is actually by all metrics the worst defender in whole league , with 450 + player in it.

Would his team be better without him? No , because they don't even have backup, but just like his college team, he really doesn't make team better by riding 27% usage rate and being paper on wind on defense.

Did you watch the game? Most of our mistakes when he was in the game was where Trae was nowhere near the ball. There is a negative chemistry with one of our players and Trae that we have seen in the last two games but to say he isn't impactful is BS. You clearly don't watch our games outside of the ones v. Orlando where he struggles v. Augustin for some reason. Orlando, Milwaukee and New York have been real pains in our asses this year.

His RPM ( pretty much actual impact behind numbers) ranks him 78# among 95 PGs in nba and dead last player in defensive plus minus.
His real value on a floor is measurable by RPM to Brandon Knight, Dennis Smith and Devin Harris but he puts up raw counting numbers that mask his true colors ( just like he did at college )

problem here is understanding what happends if xy player doesn't take FGA, that FGA won't disappear, it will just be taken by other player. That's why you have things like value over replacment,TS% net rating, win share, real plus minus.
His usage rate ,especially after ASG is identical to Steph Curry and Paul George.
Look i understand he is rookie, but to me his career projection looks similar to Devin Booker's. Great counting stats until you dig bit deeper under them.

And to make things that much worst , you guys traded one of best rookies in last decade for him (who's actually good defender ) and who is already 6th in ORPM , 13 overall (among SFs) and who is top 6-8 SF in nba already.

No problem here is understanding he is a rookie who has had an inconsistent season.