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Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

Moderators: Howard Mass, UCFJayBird, Def Swami, ChosenSavior, MagicMadness, SOUL

Should we resign Vuc/Ross

Yes
43
34%
Yes, but just Vuc
9
7%
Yes, but just Ross
51
40%
No
23
18%
 
Total votes: 126

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1261 » by PrimeThyme » Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:31 pm

I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).

I can't say that I'd be mad at that decision either.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1262 » by Nyce_1 » Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:40 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).

I can't say that I'd be mad at that decision either.
Weltman and Masai are great friends. I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff had the same stones to make bold, unpopular moves. Team first.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1263 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:50 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).



Weltman has already stated multiple times that re-signing Vucevic was a priority. BUT he has stated that he would not pay a penny more than anyone else. He has also stated that he has to balance the now with the future. To me that says he wants to retain Vucevic, but within reason.

But what is that reasonable amount?

Weltman gave Aaron Gordon a 21.2% of salary cap contract (with 8% decreases). That was after he had drafted Jonathan Isaac. Gordon's contract was scaled that size mostly based on "potential" as he would be on his prime ascent (23-27) during that deal.

Vucevic's contract should be scaled similarly because of actual proven production; and that his deal would be at his peak plateaux for 3 of its 4 seasons. Most of that production should hold through the majority of that contract.

This summer, a contract similar to Gordon's would be a $22.9m contract. I think the FO's acceptable range is somewhere in that range, my guess would be $25m as the highest they go. A 4yr/$100m deal is well within the Magic's capacity short term and in their long term cap projection.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1264 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:11 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).

I can't say that I'd be mad at that decision either.
Weltman and Masai are great friends. I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff had the same stones to make bold, unpopular moves. Team first.


Weltman, Masai and Hammond have all worked for and with each other for a while. They've played a key role in three franchises that are now reaping rewards: Denver, Milwaukee and Toronto.

Your comment made me think of something Zach Lowe recently stated in his article about the Raps:


The 2017 offseason, coming after a Cavs sweep in the second round, represented a pivot point. Lowry and Ibaka were free agents. Ujiri could let them walk, trade DeRozan, and bottom out ahead of the loaded 2018 draft. But Ujiri has rarely lost players for nothing. He created a template for a new kind of sign-and-trade as GM of the Denver Nuggets when he re-signed Nene Hilario to a five-year, $67 million deal in 2011, only to trade him for a younger player at the same position (JaVale McGee) three months later.

Toronto re-signed Ibaka and Lowry to three-year deals, timing them to expire together with Valanciunas' contract. The core had three years before detonation by default. In engineering that timeline, Ujiri delayed a rebuild so that the start of it would coincide with the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers -- then considered heirs to the East -- reaching their peaks; Toronto would rise again as those rivals fell. In the meantime, the Raptors could enjoy winning seasons and investigate what their players might fetch in trades.


earlier in article he stated this also:

Toronto mined the draft and the fringes of the NBA to fatten its asset base so that when a superstar became available, it could strike.


I could see WelHam taking these same approaches with Vucevic/Ross, meanwhile gathering and developing their young core.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1265 » by Ducklett » Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:15 pm

ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).



Weltman has already stated multiple times that re-signing Vucevic was a priority. BUT he has stated that he would not pay a penny more than anyone else. He has also stated that he has to balance the now with the future. To me that says he wants to retain Vucevic, but within reason.

But what is that reasonable amount?

Weltman gave Aaron Gordon a 21.2% of salary cap contract (with 8% decreases). That was after he had drafted Jonathan Isaac. Gordon's contract was scaled that size mostly based on "potential" as he would be on his prime ascent (23-27) during that deal.

Vucevic's contract should be scaled similarly because of actual proven production; and that his deal would be at his peak plateaux for 3 of its 4 seasons. Most of that production should hold through the majority of that contract.

This summer, a contract similar to Gordon's would be a $22.9m contract. I think the FO's acceptable range is somewhere in that range, my guess would be $25m as the highest they go. A 4yr/$100m deal is well within the Magic's capacity short term and in their long term cap projection.


I think having 25 mil a year for Vuc with no superstar on the team is the definition of screwing up long term cap projection.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1266 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:15 pm

Ducklett wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).



Weltman has already stated multiple times that re-signing Vucevic was a priority. BUT he has stated that he would not pay a penny more than anyone else. He has also stated that he has to balance the now with the future. To me that says he wants to retain Vucevic, but within reason.

But what is that reasonable amount?

Weltman gave Aaron Gordon a 21.2% of salary cap contract (with 8% decreases). That was after he had drafted Jonathan Isaac. Gordon's contract was scaled that size mostly based on "potential" as he would be on his prime ascent (23-27) during that deal.

Vucevic's contract should be scaled similarly because of actual proven production; and that his deal would be at his peak plateaux for 3 of its 4 seasons. Most of that production should hold through the majority of that contract.

This summer, a contract similar to Gordon's would be a $22.9m contract. I think the FO's acceptable range is somewhere in that range, my guess would be $25m as the highest they go. A 4yr/$100m deal is well within the Magic's capacity short term and in their long term cap projection.


I think having 25 mil a year for Vuc with no superstar on the team is the definition of screwing up long term cap projection.


The Magic won't be able to add a "superstar" even without Vucevic on books.

Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1267 » by ufgatorbait » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:12 pm

It baffles me that Lakers have Lebron, AD and room to sign another star player.

WTF!!!!
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1268 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:14 pm

Ducklett wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).



Weltman has already stated multiple times that re-signing Vucevic was a priority. BUT he has stated that he would not pay a penny more than anyone else. He has also stated that he has to balance the now with the future. To me that says he wants to retain Vucevic, but within reason.

But what is that reasonable amount?

Weltman gave Aaron Gordon a 21.2% of salary cap contract (with 8% decreases). That was after he had drafted Jonathan Isaac. Gordon's contract was scaled that size mostly based on "potential" as he would be on his prime ascent (23-27) during that deal.

Vucevic's contract should be scaled similarly because of actual proven production; and that his deal would be at his peak plateaux for 3 of its 4 seasons. Most of that production should hold through the majority of that contract.

This summer, a contract similar to Gordon's would be a $22.9m contract. I think the FO's acceptable range is somewhere in that range, my guess would be $25m as the highest they go. A 4yr/$100m deal is well within the Magic's capacity short term and in their long term cap projection.


I think having 25 mil a year for Vuc with no superstar on the team is the definition of screwing up long term cap projection.


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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1269 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:44 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1270 » by sportsrock37 » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:54 pm

Obviously we should take a look at all avenues to improve the team, but I've seen quite a bit of people who want drastic changes on our team. Why do we need to make a drastic change? Just because we were outmatched in our first playoff series in 7 years vs the champs doesn't mean we should make drastic changes. Especially since you have 3-4 guys who should make big strides. We were one of the best teams in the 2nd half of last year and that was with Vuc declining a bit from his amazing first half. Obviously don't overpay Vuc or Ross, but as long as it's a reasonable amount, why not run back the same team we did in the 2nd half of last season by basically adding 3 new rotation guys with high potential(Bamba/Fultz/#16 pick) that will make us much deeper with Wes' improvements as well. I can't wait to see what JI can develop into this season and even if it didn't show on the stat sheet, AG was a much improved player last year especially at the end of the season and in the playoffs. With the internal improvement and the continuity of our coaching staff, and the likely shakeup in the East (Milwaukee - Brogdon, MIddleton, Lopez, Philly - Tobias and Butler, Boston - Kyrie - and especially with how bad our division should be with/without Kemba), why can't we become a ~50 win team and compete for a top 4 seed as is?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1271 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:00 am

ufgatorbait wrote:It baffles me that Lakers have Lebron, AD and room to sign another star player.

WTF!!!!


That's the destination market advantage built into the NBA.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1272 » by MagicMatic » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:20 am

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.


Of course cap space won’t matter to Orlando for free agency. However, retaining Vuc doesn’t do anything either and won’t draw anyone to Orlando. So who are you trading in your hypothetical scenario? AG, Isaac, or Bamba? Those are the players with any real value to land anyone of real consequence.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1273 » by Skin » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:25 am

ufgatorbait wrote:It baffles me that Lakers have Lebron, AD and room to sign another star player.

WTF!!!!

Is that true? Smh

Meanwhile we're tied up with Mozgov, Fournier and some Magic fans want to continue that trend by signing Vuc and Ross.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1274 » by ufgatorbait » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:22 am

They sure do have the room. Depending on if AD takes his 4m trade bonus the lakers are looking at either 28m or 32m in space.

It just drives me nuts that we can’t manage our cap situation in a similar fashion.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1275 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:00 am

Skin wrote:
ufgatorbait wrote:It baffles me that Lakers have Lebron, AD and room to sign another star player.

WTF!!!!

Is that true? Smh

Meanwhile we're tied up with Mozgov, Fournier and some Magic fans want to continue that trend by signing Vuc and Ross.


One city is Los Angeles, the #1 NBA free agency destination market since the beginning of time...the other is Orlando.

A franchise that destroyed their reputation because of the foolish tank gamble. Setting the franchise on a 7 year slide into the joke of the NBA. Yet some fans want to take a step backwards after finally starting to turn things around. Smh
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1276 » by NavalAviator94 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:10 am

ezzzp wrote:
Skin wrote:
ufgatorbait wrote:It baffles me that Lakers have Lebron, AD and room to sign another star player.

WTF!!!!

Is that true? Smh

Meanwhile we're tied up with Mozgov, Fournier and some Magic fans want to continue that trend by signing Vuc and Ross.


One city is Los Angeles, the #1 NBA free agency destination market since the beginning of time...the other is Orlando.

A franchise that destroyed their reputation because of the foolish tank gamble. Setting the franchise on a 7 year slide into the joke of the NBA. Yet some fans want to take a step backwards after finally starting to turn things around. Smh


Exactly. And they will always be relevant despite the screw ups. Imagine being able to plan for that. The draft becomes virtually - irrelevant.


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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1277 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:17 am

MagicMatic wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.


Of course cap space won’t matter to Orlando for free agency. However, retaining Vuc doesn’t do anything either and won’t draw anyone to Orlando. So who are you trading in your hypothetical scenario? AG, Isaac, or Bamba? Those are the players with any real value to land anyone of real consequence.



Yes he does. He helps sustain a competitive level that provides best developmental context and best asset value setting.

It’s not about him drawing players. It’s about asset management and player development, meanwhile repairing the Magic’s reputation by continuing to build on the winning culture they started to show last year.

In my opinion AG/Fournier are ripe for trade from next summer to the trade deadline. WelHam structured AG’s contract to line up perfectly with Fournier’s so that during that span combined they equal a max player salary. That’s too precise for me to think it’s not strategic.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1278 » by basketballRob » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:25 am

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.
I still say Fournier opts out after next season.

Jonas Valanciunas had a bigger contract and opted out.


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Ducklett
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1279 » by Ducklett » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:30 am

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.


So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1280 » by basketballRob » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:39 am

Ducklett wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.


So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.
If they renounce Vuc and Ross and strike out on Russell they could sign a couple players on one year deals and try again next season. Maybe sign a couple vets like DeAndre Jordan and George Hill.

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