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Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

Moderators: Knightro, SOUL, Def Swami, Howard Mass, UCFJayBird, ChosenSavior

Should we resign Vuc/Ross

Yes
43
34%
Yes, but just Vuc
9
7%
Yes, but just Ross
51
40%
No
23
18%
 
Total votes: 126

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1281 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:41 am

basketballRob wrote:I still say Fournier opts out after next season.

Jonas Valanciunas had a bigger contract and opted out.


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JV opted out to re-sign extension with Memphis - at least that’s what is being reported.

It’s pretty unusual for players to opt out of that much money unless they have a great season - and if that happens then fans will want him to stay as then he’ll be a valuable asset.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1282 » by PrimeThyme » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:43 am

ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).



Weltman has already stated multiple times that re-signing Vucevic was a priority. BUT he has stated that he would not pay a penny more than anyone else. He has also stated that he has to balance the now with the future. To me that says he wants to retain Vucevic, but within reason.

But what is that reasonable amount?

Weltman gave Aaron Gordon a 21.2% of salary cap contract (with 8% decreases). That was after he had drafted Jonathan Isaac. Gordon's contract was scaled that size mostly based on "potential" as he would be on his prime ascent (23-27) during that deal.

Vucevic's contract should be scaled similarly because of actual proven production; and that his deal would be at his peak plateaux for 3 of its 4 seasons. Most of that production should hold through the majority of that contract.

This summer, a contract similar to Gordon's would be a $22.9m contract. I think the FO's acceptable range is somewhere in that range, my guess would be $25m as the highest they go. A 4yr/$100m deal is well within the Magic's capacity short term and in their long term cap projection.

I'm not sure tbh. 22 mill does seem fair, but I'm also not convinced they would go the 4-year route either. I don't think you can compare the giving AG a contract after just drafting Isaac situation to the giving Vuc a 4 year contract after just drafting Bamba situation for one main reason.

As you saw this year, the FO and Cliffords staff had full intentions when they handed that contract to AG of playing him next to Isaac longterm. && as you saw this year those two can coexist together. Bamba and Vuc cannot and will not ever coexist together imo. Both are 5's in this league and I don't think in today's modern NBA any real success can be found with a Bamba/Vuc pairing (it was already disastrous in limited minutes last year).

I do think management would be more hesitant of handing Vuc a 4-year contract for that very reason. I know in theory it's easy to say that Vuc could be moved after two years to make way for Bamba, but if he is signed to a contract in the 22-max range and his production starts to dip back down to what we saw in previous years he could potentially be hard to move. We already found the last two years how hard it was to get any value back for him and that was on a bargain contract. The market for centers just isnt there.

I just think getting Khem back on a more team friendly contract and grooming Bamba under him could be the route Weltman looks to take. Bamba is the future after all and being able to bring him along at the pace they want to and being able to give him an increased role when they feel he is ready, would be easier to do with Birch as your starter imo.

We shall see in just a matter of weeks what decision they ultimately decide to take though. Its going to be a hectic free agency.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1283 » by Catledge » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:44 am

Ducklett wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Spoiler:
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A tired meme doesn't change the reality of the Magic's cap projection. The Magic will not be able to add a "superstar" with cap space...with or without Vucevic on books:

Spoiler:
Lets say Magic renounce everyone of their FA's. The Magic would have $18m in cap space, but only 10 roster spots filled (2 of which are a rookie and Frazier). Not only is that not anywhere nearly enough to get a "superstar," but if you use it, it impacts the future cap space.

If the Magic stretch Mozgov they create $28.8m in cap space, enough for a $27m Jr. Max. The only player that Jr. Max applies to is D'Angelo Russell.

If they sign Russell, the Magic would be capped out with 10 roster spots filled. If they don't renounce Birch, they have just enough to max D'Lo and then pay Birch over the cap...and be at 11 of 13 roster spots filled.

Lets say they somehow manage to convince Birch to sign for a vet minimum contract 2yr/$1.6m and use non-guaranteed 1yr minimum contracts for final two spots. This is of course not realistic, but to show you best case projection scenario.

Then next summer (2020) they'll have only $9.6m in cap space with 9 players on the roster and Wes Iwundu in RFA. Lets say the Magic just let Iwundu walk, for best case scenario in future cap projection. $9.6m isn't ANYWHERE near "superstar" level cap space. Its less than the MLE which is used to acquire role players.

Then the summer of 2021, boom! the first wave of rookie scale contracts start to blossom. Fultz and Isaac hit RFA. Russell and Gordon are already eating half the cap (combined $46.4m in salary). The cap holds for Fultz and Isaac equal $52m. There goes your cap space and thats with 6 players on roster. If the Magic renounce one of them, which means 1 of the 2 flopped, they have to use any cap to fill out 7 roster spots....that equals NO "superstar" in free agency.

Then the summer of 2022, Aaron Gordon hits free agency. Then in 2023, Bamba hits UFA. By then Vuc would be coming off the books.

As I've said before with or without Vucevic, the Magic won't have cap space. Their best chance at acquiring that "superstar" is via trade. That means staying competitive and building up asset cache, not shedding assets.

If they don't sign Russell or Vucevic or someone that can carry an offense, its not hard to see the team free falling to lottery again and then it doesn't matter how much cap space there is, no FA's are signing anyhow.


So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.


So if we keep Vooch and Ross, we would still have some $20m-$25m in cap space that summer with the option to renounce Fultz's cap hold if he doesn't develop?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1284 » by basketballRob » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:51 am

ezzzp wrote:
basketballRob wrote:I still say Fournier opts out after next season.

Jonas Valanciunas had a bigger contract and opted out.


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JV opted out to re-sign extension with Memphis - at least that’s what is being reported.

It’s pretty unusual for players to opt out of that much money unless they have a great season - and if that happens then fans will want him to stay as then he’ll be a valuable asset.
I didn't see the report where he was going to resign an extension.

I think Fournier will look for a longer deal after the season.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1285 » by basketballRob » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:54 am

I think it's 50/50 that the Grizzlies resign Jonas.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1286 » by tiderulz » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:55 am

basketballRob wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
basketballRob wrote:I still say Fournier opts out after next season.

Jonas Valanciunas had a bigger contract and opted out.


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JV opted out to re-sign extension with Memphis - at least that’s what is being reported.

It’s pretty unusual for players to opt out of that much money unless they have a great season - and if that happens then fans will want him to stay as then he’ll be a valuable asset.
I didn't see the report where he was going to resign an extension.

I think Fournier will look for a longer deal after the season.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1287 » by basketballRob » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:56 am

tiderulz wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
JV opted out to re-sign extension with Memphis - at least that’s what is being reported.

It’s pretty unusual for players to opt out of that much money unless they have a great season - and if that happens then fans will want him to stay as then he’ll be a valuable asset.
I didn't see the report where he was going to resign an extension.

I think Fournier will look for a longer deal after the season.

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Memphis will have a tough decision because they're very close to the tax threshold.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1288 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:43 am

Ducklett wrote:
So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.


That's a tank that you just laid out. I seriously doubt this FO will ever do that.

Also your math is way off:

AG ($16.4m)
Bamba ($7.6m)
Fultz Cap Hold $30.5m)
Isaac Cap Hold ($22.1m)

That alone is $76.6m.

Then you add in 2019 #16, the cap hit for that pick will be $3.4m that summer. So that's $80m.

Then you add in a 2020 1st. Lets be kind to your cause and say its the 15th pick, but realistically its a much higher pick since that team is absolutely a high lottery team. That adds another $3.7m that summer. So that's $83.7m with 4 players + two cap holds.

Then you add in the two second rounders. That adds $1.8m and $1.9m. So now the roster has 6 players and 2 cap holds with a payroll of $87.4m.

The minimum roster during offseason is 12. So you have to add 4 empty roster charges, each $1m.

That brings the payroll to $91.4m. The projected NBA salary cap that summer is $121.8m. The Magic would have $30.4m in cap space to fill FIVE more roster spots. The cheapest "superstar" max salary (for players with less than 6 year's experience) that summer is $30.2m...the max for players with 7-9 years experience is $36.5m...the vet max is $42.6m.

Like I said, the Magic WILL NOT have cap space for a "superstar" with or without Vucevic.

Remember, this was also in a very generous best case scenario; one were we just ignore Birch, Frazier and Iwundu exist; one that we pretend that the Magic do not sign any new contracts over the next 2 years; one were we pretend that the 2nd round picks become rotation level players; the one were we ignore that the following summer Gordon is also an UFA looking for his prime age contract; etc etc etc.

...and ALL that is with the assumption that those 4 core players actually pan out.

This is why I'm all about retaining assets and developing youth in competitive context. Its best case scenario for value of all assets, giving Magic more options for trading if and when that "superstar" becomes available on trade market. Plus competitive context also gives the best shot at retention of that player, and retention of the Magic's own quality players.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1289 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:00 am

basketballRob wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
basketballRob wrote:I didn't see the report where he was going to resign an extension.

I think Fournier will look for a longer deal after the season.

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Memphis will have a tough decision because they're very close to the tax threshold.

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They're $29m below the tax threshold, and that's with Conley. Plus they have Bradley's $12m non-guaranteed contract they can just waive if it gets close. They'll probably trade Conley, likely getting back expiring deals for trade ballast + pick or player on rookie scale deal. Its not going to be an issue for them.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1290 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:45 am

PrimeThyme wrote:
I do think management would be more hesitant of handing Vuc a 4-year contract for that very reason. I know in theory it's easy to say that Vuc could be moved after two years to make way for Bamba, but if he is signed to a contract in the 22-max range and his production starts to dip back down to what we saw in previous years he could potentially be hard to move. We already found the last two years how hard it was to get any value back for him and that was on a bargain contract. The market for centers just isnt there.


They'd have to trust that they could bring someone in to replace Vucevic's very important role and production.

Vucevic was a focal point in nearly every possession he was on the floor; his scoring, passing and rebounding kept the Magic in games; his 3pt shooting and +16' perimeter shooting were crucial for spacing.

Ross has stated that he was waiting to see what Vucevic did. If Vucevic goes, Ross is more than likely gone. That's most of the Magic's 48 minute offensive attack; and with Vuc the most important rebounding factor. Nobody on the roster is replacing that.

The FO would have to be ok with risking going into a free fall if they whiff in free agency; and hurting the development of Gordon, Isaac, Fultz etc - all for Bamba. A player that is unlikely to be ready for starter minutes for another 1-2 years.

Vucevic will be in his prime plateaux. What he is now is what he'll more than likely be for most of his next contract. The biggest difference in Vucevic's efficiency from years past was the addition of the 3pt shot and with Clifford he's increased interior fga's.

Both of those are high efficiency zones. Neither of those are the type of skills that decline. He's not scoring in the paint on athleticism with lobs or dunks, its all finesse. His 3PT shooting is rapidly improving, and its a natural progression as he's always been a good perimeter shooter. Now he's just stepping back a step to a higher value shot.

Defensively, the biggest factor is his defensive rebounding and box outs, two skills that he's always been good at. Not because of athleticism, but because of bbIQ, mass and an elite level standing reach. None of that is going to disappear in 2-3 years.

Then you add in how much he's improved his passing and court awareness, again another skill that's not going to decline, but rather likely improve the more experienced he is.

If Vucevic is on a decent contract, he'll be fine value wise. I see him as a perfect foil for Bamba to compete with and learn from in his early development. If Bamba does take his starting spot in a couple of years, Vucevic then become an excellent back up / 6th man or a player the Magic can throw in a trade as $ ballast at worse.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1291 » by MagicMatic » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:53 am

ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:
I do think management would be more hesitant of handing Vuc a 4-year contract for that very reason. I know in theory it's easy to say that Vuc could be moved after two years to make way for Bamba, but if he is signed to a contract in the 22-max range and his production starts to dip back down to what we saw in previous years he could potentially be hard to move. We already found the last two years how hard it was to get any value back for him and that was on a bargain contract. The market for centers just isnt there.


They'd have to trust that they could bring someone in to replace Vucevic's very important role and production.

Vucevic was a focal point in nearly every possession he was on the floor; his scoring, passing and rebounding kept the Magic in games; his 3pt shooting and +16' perimeter shooting were crucial for spacing.

Ross has stated that he was waiting to see what Vucevic did. If Vucevic goes, Ross is more than likely gone. That's most of the Magic's 48 minute offensive attack; and with Vuc the most important rebounding factor. Nobody on the roster is replacing that.

The FO would have to be ok with risking going into a free fall if they whiff in free agency; and hurting the development of Gordon, Isaac, Fultz etc - all for Bamba. A player that is unlikely to be ready for starter minutes for another 1-2 years.

Vucevic will be in his prime plateaux. What he is now is what he'll more than likely be for most of his next contract. The biggest difference in Vucevic's efficiency from years past was the addition of the 3pt shot and with Clifford he's increased interior fga's.

Both of those are high efficiency zones. Neither of those are the type of skills that decline. He's not scoring in the paint on athleticism with lobs or dunks, its all finesse. His 3PT shooting is rapidly improving, and its a natural progression as he's always been a good perimeter shooter. Now he's just stepping back a step to a higher value shot.

Defensively, the biggest factor is his defensive rebounding and box outs, two skills that he's always been good at. Not because of athleticism, but because of bbIQ, mass and an elite level standing reach. None of that is going to disappear in 2-3 years.

Then you add in how much he's improved his passing and court awareness, again another skill that's not going to decline, but rather likely improve the more experienced he is.

If Vucevic is on a decent contract, he'll be fine value wise. I see him as a perfect foil for Bamba to compete with and learn from in his early development. If Bamba does take his starting spot in a couple of years, Vucevic then become an excellent back up / 6th man or a player the Magic can throw in a trade as $ ballast at worse.


Lol this post and the previous one replying to Ducklett just shows how much of a Vucevic fanboy you are. You are saying Vuc is too important not to resign and that should the FO not retain Vuc, and effectively Ross, it would be considered a “tank”. Hilarious.

You make it sound like Orlando can’t go in an entirely different direction and it would be impossible to build a competitive team without keeping Vuc. Simply not the case. Then you go on to say “if he’s on a decent contract he can eventually be a backup to Bamba” what? You are either delusional in thinking Vuc won’t get a big contract (should he be resigned), or you think having a luxury Center “in a couple years” is a good use of assets and cap space with the amount of perpetuating roster concerns. :lol:

Comedy gold.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1292 » by Bensational » Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:14 am

ezzzp wrote:
Ducklett wrote:
So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.


That's a tank that you just laid out. I seriously doubt this FO will ever do that.

Also your math is way off:

AG ($16.4m)
Bamba ($7.6m)
Fultz Cap Hold $30.5m)
Isaac Cap Hold ($22.1m)

That alone is $76.6m.

Then you add in 2019 #16, the cap hit for that pick will be $3.4m that summer. So that's $80m.

Then you add in a 2020 1st. Lets be kind to your cause and say its the 15th pick, but realistically its a much higher pick since that team is absolutely a high lottery team. That adds another $3.7m that summer. So that's $83.7m with 4 players + two cap holds.

Then you add in the two second rounders. That adds $1.8m and $1.9m. So now the roster has 6 players and 2 cap holds with a payroll of $87.4m.

The minimum roster during offseason is 12. So you have to add 4 empty roster charges, each $1m.

That brings the payroll to $91.4m. The projected NBA salary cap that summer is $121.8m. The Magic would have $30.4m in cap space to fill FIVE more roster spots. The cheapest "superstar" max salary (for players with less than 6 year's experience) that summer is $30.2m...the max for players with 7-9 years experience is $36.5m...the vet max is $42.6m.

Like I said, the Magic WILL NOT have cap space for a "superstar" with or without Vucevic.

Remember, this was also in a very generous best case scenario; one were we just ignore Birch, Frazier and Iwundu exist; one that we pretend that the Magic do not sign any new contracts over the next 2 years; one were we pretend that the 2nd round picks become rotation level players; the one were we ignore that the following summer Gordon is also an UFA looking for his prime age contract; etc etc etc.

...and ALL that is with the assumption that those 4 core players actually pan out.

This is why I'm all about retaining assets and developing youth in competitive context. Its best case scenario for value of all assets, giving Magic more options for trading if and when that "superstar" becomes available on trade market. Plus competitive context also gives the best shot at retention of that player, and retention of the Magic's own quality players.


I don't think there was a proposal to tank. Those are the players we're left with in 2021 if we just let everyone's contracts expire along the way.

If Fultz and Isaac are playing to the level of those cap holds, we would appear to be in a good position. If not, however, their deals might be a lot cheaper than that, or they might not exist anymore. So there's anywhere from $10-50M held up right there.

And if you want to chase a couple of FAs with $30M starting salaries, and two have agreed to come, then you deal with Isaac and Fultz, or consider trading Gordon for the extra space.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1293 » by Blue_and_Whte » Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:50 am

Nyce_1 wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'm really starting to think that Weltman may decide to let Vuc walk this summer, resign Birch, and either resign Ross or renounce him as well and use that money elsewhere. If he commands anything more than 20 mill from us which is pretty likely, I think Weltman has made it clear he is not at all opposed to letting him walk (if he belives thats too high of an asking price).

I can't say that I'd be mad at that decision either.
Weltman and Masai are great friends. I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff had the same stones to make bold, unpopular moves. Team first.
I really wouldn't be mad either as long as they pick a direction. None of this treadmill team crap.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1294 » by Xatticus » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:10 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Ducklett wrote:
So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.


That's a tank that you just laid out. I seriously doubt this FO will ever do that.

Also your math is way off:

AG ($16.4m)
Bamba ($7.6m)
Fultz Cap Hold $30.5m)
Isaac Cap Hold ($22.1m)

That alone is $76.6m.

Then you add in 2019 #16, the cap hit for that pick will be $3.4m that summer. So that's $80m.

Then you add in a 2020 1st. Lets be kind to your cause and say its the 15th pick, but realistically its a much higher pick since that team is absolutely a high lottery team. That adds another $3.7m that summer. So that's $83.7m with 4 players + two cap holds.

Then you add in the two second rounders. That adds $1.8m and $1.9m. So now the roster has 6 players and 2 cap holds with a payroll of $87.4m.

The minimum roster during offseason is 12. So you have to add 4 empty roster charges, each $1m.

That brings the payroll to $91.4m. The projected NBA salary cap that summer is $121.8m. The Magic would have $30.4m in cap space to fill FIVE more roster spots. The cheapest "superstar" max salary (for players with less than 6 year's experience) that summer is $30.2m...the max for players with 7-9 years experience is $36.5m...the vet max is $42.6m.

Like I said, the Magic WILL NOT have cap space for a "superstar" with or without Vucevic.

Remember, this was also in a very generous best case scenario; one were we just ignore Birch, Frazier and Iwundu exist; one that we pretend that the Magic do not sign any new contracts over the next 2 years; one were we pretend that the 2nd round picks become rotation level players; the one were we ignore that the following summer Gordon is also an UFA looking for his prime age contract; etc etc etc.

...and ALL that is with the assumption that those 4 core players actually pan out.

This is why I'm all about retaining assets and developing youth in competitive context. Its best case scenario for value of all assets, giving Magic more options for trading if and when that "superstar" becomes available on trade market. Plus competitive context also gives the best shot at retention of that player, and retention of the Magic's own quality players.


You are arguing that we won't have room to sign a max contract free agent in the summer of 2021, even if we do not we re-sign Vucevic, when we only have $25M in committed salary on the books for the period in question? That's absurd. You could've made the same argument regarding Brooklyn just a month ago, but we all know that they now have room for two such contracts if they want to go that route.

Cap holds have a built-in flexibility. Firstly, they can be cleared by simply renouncing the players. Secondly, even if you intend to retain the players, the cap hold seldom reflects the actual value of the contract that they represent. If the actual contract is lower, you can simply get the extension done and clear the difference from the ledger. If the cap hold is lower, you can conduct your other business before working out the extension. Further, there is no value in dumping salary if doing so doesn't actually clear cap space. There is no point in dumping an Allen Crabbe or renouncing a D'Angelo Russell if it doesn't actually clear cap space.

Every contract carries an opportunity cost with it. The bigger the contract is, the larger the cost associated with it. It's ridiculous to argue otherwise. This is precisely what concerns people about Vucevic's extension.

We don't have money to spend right now because we decided to give out fat contracts to Fournier and Biyombo in 2016. How many people expected that those decisions are what would prevent us from chasing any of the numerous stars on the market in this summer? They aren't sunk costs, but they are negative assets. We'd have to attach good assets to get off of them.

Vucevic's next contract is going to carry a substantial opportunity cost and there is not a robust market for centers. If it proves to be bad money, then we are likely to be stuck with it as we have been with Fournier and Biyombo/Mozgov. This could prove very problematic if one of our young players actually develops into someone worth building around.

It's not about putting the best players you can on the floor in the short-term. It's about maximizing your finite pool of resources to provide the greatest value over the long-term. This is what Isaiah Thomas and Billy King couldn't understand. This is why they frittered away resources to reel in any big name that came onto the market while ignoring the consequences.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1295 » by Xatticus » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:12 pm

ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:
I do think management would be more hesitant of handing Vuc a 4-year contract for that very reason. I know in theory it's easy to say that Vuc could be moved after two years to make way for Bamba, but if he is signed to a contract in the 22-max range and his production starts to dip back down to what we saw in previous years he could potentially be hard to move. We already found the last two years how hard it was to get any value back for him and that was on a bargain contract. The market for centers just isnt there.


They'd have to trust that they could bring someone in to replace Vucevic's very important role and production.

Vucevic was a focal point in nearly every possession he was on the floor; his scoring, passing and rebounding kept the Magic in games; his 3pt shooting and +16' perimeter shooting were crucial for spacing.

Ross has stated that he was waiting to see what Vucevic did. If Vucevic goes, Ross is more than likely gone. That's most of the Magic's 48 minute offensive attack; and with Vuc the most important rebounding factor. Nobody on the roster is replacing that.

The FO would have to be ok with risking going into a free fall if they whiff in free agency; and hurting the development of Gordon, Isaac, Fultz etc - all for Bamba. A player that is unlikely to be ready for starter minutes for another 1-2 years.

Vucevic will be in his prime plateaux. What he is now is what he'll more than likely be for most of his next contract. The biggest difference in Vucevic's efficiency from years past was the addition of the 3pt shot and with Clifford he's increased interior fga's.

Both of those are high efficiency zones. Neither of those are the type of skills that decline. He's not scoring in the paint on athleticism with lobs or dunks, its all finesse. His 3PT shooting is rapidly improving, and its a natural progression as he's always been a good perimeter shooter. Now he's just stepping back a step to a higher value shot.

Defensively, the biggest factor is his defensive rebounding and box outs, two skills that he's always been good at. Not because of athleticism, but because of bbIQ, mass and an elite level standing reach. None of that is going to disappear in 2-3 years.

Then you add in how much he's improved his passing and court awareness, again another skill that's not going to decline, but rather likely improve the more experienced he is.

If Vucevic is on a decent contract, he'll be fine value wise. I see him as a perfect foil for Bamba to compete with and learn from in his early development. If Bamba does take his starting spot in a couple of years, Vucevic then become an excellent back up / 6th man or a player the Magic can throw in a trade as $ ballast at worse.


Whatever Vucevic gets paid will be about what he does at the offensive end. It will have very little to do with what he brings at the defensive end or as a rebounder. This is going to shock you... Vucevic is not a great rebounder.

Rebounding does not work how you seem to think it does. A high team DREB% is 75%. A low one is 70%. That's not a large range, but even those numbers can be very misleading as they are heavily influenced by scheme. The more you contest shots at the perimeter, the more offensive rebound opportunities you are going to surrender.

Orlando finished 3rd in defensive rebound percentage, but only 11th overall. This is because they finished 22nd in offensive rebound percentage. We've already talked about this before. This is Clifford's scheme. It manifested in Charlotte as well. On the whole, Orlando only grabbed 50.4% of rebounds this year. That's decidedly average.

Vucevic has never posted a particularly good offensive rebound percentage. Great rebounders do. This is because Vucevic isn't good at going out of his zone to get rebounds, he doesn't read them particularly well, and he isn't good at fighting for them from a disadvantaged position. He also can't linger at the offensive end because he is too slow in transition.

He's just a lumbering, big 7-footer that spends a lot of time in the paint. Everyone that fits that mold finishes with a high DREB%, but that doesn't actually mean that they are good rebounders and it doesn't always manifest in a good team DREB%. For example, Orlando finished 28th in DREB% as recently as last year. Defensive rebounding is largely a product of how you defend and the guy that cleans up most of them is the guy that spends the most time in the paint.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1296 » by j-ragg » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:14 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Ducklett wrote:
So, just a little bit of napkin math, in 2021, with AG, Bamba, JI and Fultz Cap holds, our 2019 draft pick, 2020 draft pick, 2 second rounders, and 4 empty cap slots, we are a bit less than 60 million. At the projected 120 million, that would give us about 60 million dollars in free agency. That is a lot of money to throw around if we don't mess up long term salary. I actually have no idea what you are talking about.


That's a tank that you just laid out. I seriously doubt this FO will ever do that.

Also your math is way off:

AG ($16.4m)
Bamba ($7.6m)
Fultz Cap Hold $30.5m)
Isaac Cap Hold ($22.1m)


Like I said, the Magic WILL NOT have cap space for a "superstar" with or without Vucevic.

I get wanting to make your point, but this is a silly argument to make. As if cap holds are permanent salary for the player lol, we don't even know if Fultz's 12 million dollar option will be picked up. Now we're keeping his 30 million dollar hold on the books? :lol:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1297 » by Solid Snake » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:49 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:
I do think management would be more hesitant of handing Vuc a 4-year contract for that very reason. I know in theory it's easy to say that Vuc could be moved after two years to make way for Bamba, but if he is signed to a contract in the 22-max range and his production starts to dip back down to what we saw in previous years he could potentially be hard to move. We already found the last two years how hard it was to get any value back for him and that was on a bargain contract. The market for centers just isnt there.


They'd have to trust that they could bring someone in to replace Vucevic's very important role and production.

Vucevic was a focal point in nearly every possession he was on the floor; his scoring, passing and rebounding kept the Magic in games; his 3pt shooting and +16' perimeter shooting were crucial for spacing.

Ross has stated that he was waiting to see what Vucevic did. If Vucevic goes, Ross is more than likely gone. That's most of the Magic's 48 minute offensive attack; and with Vuc the most important rebounding factor. Nobody on the roster is replacing that.

The FO would have to be ok with risking going into a free fall if they whiff in free agency; and hurting the development of Gordon, Isaac, Fultz etc - all for Bamba. A player that is unlikely to be ready for starter minutes for another 1-2 years.

Vucevic will be in his prime plateaux. What he is now is what he'll more than likely be for most of his next contract. The biggest difference in Vucevic's efficiency from years past was the addition of the 3pt shot and with Clifford he's increased interior fga's.

Both of those are high efficiency zones. Neither of those are the type of skills that decline. He's not scoring in the paint on athleticism with lobs or dunks, its all finesse. His 3PT shooting is rapidly improving, and its a natural progression as he's always been a good perimeter shooter. Now he's just stepping back a step to a higher value shot.

Defensively, the biggest factor is his defensive rebounding and box outs, two skills that he's always been good at. Not because of athleticism, but because of bbIQ, mass and an elite level standing reach. None of that is going to disappear in 2-3 years.

Then you add in how much he's improved his passing and court awareness, again another skill that's not going to decline, but rather likely improve the more experienced he is.

If Vucevic is on a decent contract, he'll be fine value wise. I see him as a perfect foil for Bamba to compete with and learn from in his early development. If Bamba does take his starting spot in a couple of years, Vucevic then become an excellent back up / 6th man or a player the Magic can throw in a trade as $ ballast at worse.


Lol this post and the previous one replying to Ducklett just shows how much of a Vucevic fanboy you are. You are saying Vuc is too important not to resign and that should the FO not retain Vuc, and effectively Ross, it would be considered a “tank”. Hilarious.

You make it sound like Orlando can’t go in an entirely different direction and it would be impossible to build a competitive team without keeping Vuc. Simply not the case. Then you go on to say “if he’s on a decent contract he can eventually be a backup to Bamba” what? You are either delusional in thinking Vuc won’t get a big contract (should he be resigned), or you think having a luxury Center “in a couple years” is a good use of assets and cap space with the amount of perpetuating roster concerns. :lol:

Comedy gold.

you're laughing but the logic is sound.....i would love to hear how you expect us to be competitive when our best and most consistent offensive options in Vuc and Ross are gone? You don't think what he said has merit? what do you think is our next move after they're gone and how do we go in an entirely different direction AND stay competitive? Mind you second half of the season we were one of the best teams in the league, how do we maintain that while going another way in our financial situation?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1298 » by pepe1991 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:25 pm

I can't see scenario where Magic lose Vuc and Ross and are not back in lottery next year.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1299 » by MagicMatic » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:55 pm

Solid Snake wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
They'd have to trust that they could bring someone in to replace Vucevic's very important role and production.

Vucevic was a focal point in nearly every possession he was on the floor; his scoring, passing and rebounding kept the Magic in games; his 3pt shooting and +16' perimeter shooting were crucial for spacing.

Ross has stated that he was waiting to see what Vucevic did. If Vucevic goes, Ross is more than likely gone. That's most of the Magic's 48 minute offensive attack; and with Vuc the most important rebounding factor. Nobody on the roster is replacing that.

The FO would have to be ok with risking going into a free fall if they whiff in free agency; and hurting the development of Gordon, Isaac, Fultz etc - all for Bamba. A player that is unlikely to be ready for starter minutes for another 1-2 years.

Vucevic will be in his prime plateaux. What he is now is what he'll more than likely be for most of his next contract. The biggest difference in Vucevic's efficiency from years past was the addition of the 3pt shot and with Clifford he's increased interior fga's.

Both of those are high efficiency zones. Neither of those are the type of skills that decline. He's not scoring in the paint on athleticism with lobs or dunks, its all finesse. His 3PT shooting is rapidly improving, and its a natural progression as he's always been a good perimeter shooter. Now he's just stepping back a step to a higher value shot.

Defensively, the biggest factor is his defensive rebounding and box outs, two skills that he's always been good at. Not because of athleticism, but because of bbIQ, mass and an elite level standing reach. None of that is going to disappear in 2-3 years.

Then you add in how much he's improved his passing and court awareness, again another skill that's not going to decline, but rather likely improve the more experienced he is.

If Vucevic is on a decent contract, he'll be fine value wise. I see him as a perfect foil for Bamba to compete with and learn from in his early development. If Bamba does take his starting spot in a couple of years, Vucevic then become an excellent back up / 6th man or a player the Magic can throw in a trade as $ ballast at worse.


Lol this post and the previous one replying to Ducklett just shows how much of a Vucevic fanboy you are. You are saying Vuc is too important not to resign and that should the FO not retain Vuc, and effectively Ross, it would be considered a “tank”. Hilarious.

You make it sound like Orlando can’t go in an entirely different direction and it would be impossible to build a competitive team without keeping Vuc. Simply not the case. Then you go on to say “if he’s on a decent contract he can eventually be a backup to Bamba” what? You are either delusional in thinking Vuc won’t get a big contract (should he be resigned), or you think having a luxury Center “in a couple years” is a good use of assets and cap space with the amount of perpetuating roster concerns. :lol:

Comedy gold.

you're laughing but the logic is sound.....i would love to hear how you expect us to be competitive when our best and most consistent offensive options in Vuc and Ross are gone? You don't think what he said has merit? what do you think is our next move after they're gone and how do we go in an entirely different direction AND stay competitive? Mind you second half of the season we were one of the best teams in the league, how do we maintain that while going another way in our financial situation?


The FO boxed themselves into a corner by never addressing an offense predicated on anyone other than Vuc that they acquired. Point blank, that’s the situation. The Orlando Magic can run a different offense and won’t be “tanking” by giving AG, Isaac, and Fournier more responsibility offensively. Just because we haven’t seen a scheme without Vuc doesn’t mean it would be impossible without him.

NOW after having made that caveat (that for some reason always needs to be stated and prefaced).

The FO does NOT NEED to retain the players at all costs simply because they are currently shouldering the load offensively. That’s the incorrect way of solving the primary issue at hand that they have not addressed alternate ways of distributing the responsibility of an offense.

The only argument to be made would be asset retention with Vucevic. However, that becomes much more difficult to move a Center at a $20+m that thrives only in a system built specifically around him for his entire career. That cost becomes less valuable to teams after he signs his contract.

Ezzp will continue to say **** like “slow and steady growth in a winning context”, which is another way of saying “we won’t be attracting free agents, won’t be utilizing the draft, and we will be watching a decade of Vucevic inspired offense before we ship off some of the younger core in some miraculous franchise altering trade.”

Teams have turned around in a quicker amount of time by forgoing systems that are clearly flawed, one dimensional, and ultimately lead nowhere. We aren’t talking about a team with multiple allstars that are underachieving based on their talent level. We are talking about a team that was proud of their main scoring option for years finally making an allstar reserve appearance after taking 17-18 fga per game while people cry about how necessary he is to the team’s future success. Give me a break.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon 

Post#1300 » by ezzzp » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:59 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
Lol this post and the previous one replying to Ducklett just shows how much of a Vucevic fanboy you are. You are saying Vuc is too important not to resign and that should the FO not retain Vuc, and effectively Ross, it would be considered a “tank”. Hilarious.

You make it sound like Orlando can’t go in an entirely different direction and it would be impossible to build a competitive team without keeping Vuc. Simply not the case. Then you go on to say “if he’s on a decent contract he can eventually be a backup to Bamba” what? You are either delusional in thinking Vuc won’t get a big contract (should he be resigned), or you think having a luxury Center “in a couple years” is a good use of assets and cap space with the amount of perpetuating roster concerns. :lol:

Comedy gold.


What is comedy gold is your reading comprehension and lack of of bbIQ. This is literally the opening sentence to my comment:

"They'd have to trust that they could bring someone in to replace Vucevic's very important role and production."

...AND Duckett's proposal IS a tank. If you surround Gordon, Isaac, Fultz, and Bamba with only two 1st Rd picks and two 2nd round picks and don't add any new contracts (aka minimum non-guaranteed contracts or 1yr vet mercenary deal), including letting Birch and Iwundu go...guess what, that is a Hinkey tank.

LMAO...your anti-Vucevic ridiculousness has you so delirious that you actually think that team isn't going to be a high lottery team.

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