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What are your best Fournier trade proposals?

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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#101 » by ezzzp » Mon May 6, 2019 11:50 pm

Bensational wrote:Dieng is the piece that makes the deal work, because I'm not even sure the Nuggets would want Fournier, and I don't think the Wolves give up Saric + Teague for Fournier + DJ. If they were, then do it. If the Nugs were happy to do Barton + Morris for Fournier, sign me up! Or even Plumlee + Morris for Fournier, even better!


Except the Nuggets don't need to any of this. They have painless options to stay out of luxury tax and retain Morris - a guy they like on super cheap contract for at least another full year.

All they have to do is:

1 renounce their 3 huge TPE's (on Faried, Chandler and Arthur)

2 renounce free agents/cap holds on T Lyles, I Thomas, J Hernangomez, R Jefferson

AND if they want to create $18m in cap space, all they have to do is waive Paul Milsap whose $30m is fully non-guaranteed. But I don't think they'll do that.

Plus they'll get another talent influx as Michael Porter Jr. is reportedly almost ready and will be there at training camp...and apparently looking good.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#102 » by Bensational » Tue May 7, 2019 12:27 am

ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:Dieng is the piece that makes the deal work, because I'm not even sure the Nuggets would want Fournier, and I don't think the Wolves give up Saric + Teague for Fournier + DJ. If they were, then do it. If the Nugs were happy to do Barton + Morris for Fournier, sign me up! Or even Plumlee + Morris for Fournier, even better!


Except the Nuggets don't need to any of this. They have painless options to stay out of luxury tax and retain Morris - a guy they like on super cheap contract for at least another full year.

All they have to do is:

1 renounce their 3 huge TPE's (on Faried, Chandler and Arthur)

2 renounce free agents/cap holds on T Lyles, I Thomas, J Hernangomez, R Jefferson

AND if they want to create $18m in cap space, all they have to do is waive Paul Milsap whose $30m is fully non-guaranteed. But I don't think they'll do that.

Plus they'll get another talent influx as Michael Porter Jr. is reportedly almost ready and will be there at training camp...and apparently looking good.


Saric would still be on his rookie scale contract, and he would be groomed to replace Millsap after next season. They'd need another backup PG to replace Morris, but they could find that cheap enough in FA. Saric represents a potential starter for them, but there's no clear pathway for Morris in their starting backcourt.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#103 » by Bensational » Tue May 7, 2019 12:29 am

ezzzp wrote:I think the question should be WHEN will there be the best Fournier trade options.

In my opinion the best use of Fournier as a trade asset will involve combining him with Aaron Gordon in 20-21 at the trade deadline.

There is a reason why Aaron Gordon's contract was structured the way it was. Is it a coincidence that in 20-21 Fournier and Gordon's contracts combine for $35m ($18m + $17m)...the trade salary match for a max player? I think this FO laid the groundwork for a pivotal trade deadline in 20-21.

That year Fournier is an expiring contract and Gordon is a season away from hitting unrestricted free agency. That point will more than likely be the peak trade value for both players and possibly the best chance for a consolidation trade upgrade.

It is very rare that a player stays with his drafting team for 3 contracts. When it happens its nearly always players who are franchise caliber, or close to it, looking to get the biggest contract possible. I find it unlikely that AG will be at that level and thus very unlikely that Gordon re-signs with Magic to spend his peak prime years in Orlando. He'll for the first time be able to choose where he lives and plays. Its going to take contender potential to keep him in Orlando. How likely is that to be realistic outlook in 1.5 years?

To me, that 20-21 trade deadline is when the Magic should be targeting and stockpiling a variety of assets to be ready strike.


Interesting take and observation on the contract sums/timings.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#104 » by ezzzp » Tue May 7, 2019 12:53 am

Bensational wrote:So then the solution is to run the same SL back, but replace the impact of Ross (who had the highest differential of any player on our team between W's and L's)


You say that as if Ross being erratic, to the point that it differentiated between Magic win or loss is a good thing. Consistency from the bench is kind of important.

Of the Magic players considered rotation/fringe rotation players throughout the year, only Simmons, Grant and Bamba were worse:

• Plus/Minus https://on.nba.com/2O2eQEH

• NET Rating https://on.nba.com/2QAVRoF

• On/Off https://on.nba.com/2VSDiyG

His top minutes came with starters:

with Gordon (1242 min)
with Fournier (933 min)
with Vucevic (911 min)
with DJ (757 min)
with Isaac (735 min)

I like Ross and he's a great weapon coming off the bench, but his erratic play isn't an anomaly, its what he's known for. Saying that he saved the starters is just not accurate.

Either way, I've stated to you multiple times that I'm for the retention of assets (Vucevic and Ross). If Ross walks, which is very possible, I'm interested in the Magic using their MLE on a player that can create for others and can handle the ball...guys like Tyreke Evans, Tomas Satoransky, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose off top of my head.


Bensational wrote:I'd be apprehensive of Clifford's track record of his teams regressing after their first season with him, but hopefully we'd have more talent and better balance of that talent.


Track record? Charlotte was his first head coaching gig. His second year in Charlotte, Kemba's injury is the reason they regressed. Walker was out for 2 months in meat of season (Jan 14th - Mar 11th) and never returned to form after return.

But following year they won 48 games and took the Heat (Lebron/Wade/Bosh Super Team) to 7 games in first round.

Bensational wrote:But even if we do run back the same squad and make the playoffs, the future then hinges on Fultz regaining star college form, or Isaac or Bamba showing unpredictable growth as on ball playmakers.It doesn't fill me with hope or excite me.


That's not true at all. That's just the glass half empty perspective. Consolidation trades happen all the time, young cores are never kept together. Assuming that this is the set core group 2 years from now is not at all reflective of NBA player movement.


Bensational wrote:I think there's a happy medium of preserving room for growth, whilst keeping Vuc for his impact and veteran experience, whilst being more aggressive at finding some backcourt playmakers. Resting on our laurels now feels like wasted time.


I've already posted about the 20-21 trade deadline:
Spoiler:
I think the question should be WHEN will there be the best Fournier trade options.

In my opinion the best use of Fournier as a trade asset will involve combining him with Aaron Gordon in 20-21 at the trade deadline.

There is a reason why Aaron Gordon's contract was structured the way it was. Is it a coincidence that in 20-21 Fournier and Gordon's contracts combine for $35m ($18m + $17m)...the trade salary match for a max player? I think this FO laid the groundwork for a pivotal trade deadline in 20-21.

That year Fournier is an expiring contract and Gordon is a season away from hitting unrestricted free agency. That point will more than likely be the peak trade value for both players and possibly the best chance for a consolidation trade upgrade.

It is very rare that a player stays with his drafting team for 3 contracts. When it happens its nearly always players who are franchise caliber, or close to it, looking to get the biggest contract possible. I find it unlikely that AG will be at that level and thus very unlikely that Gordon re-signs with Magic to spend his peak prime years in Orlando. He'll for the first time be able to choose where he lives and plays. Its going to take contender potential to keep him in Orlando. How likely is that to be realistic outlook in 1.5 years?

To me, that 20-21 trade deadline is when the Magic should be targeting and stockpiling a variety of assets to be ready strike.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#105 » by ezzzp » Tue May 7, 2019 12:56 am

Bensational wrote:Saric would still be on his rookie scale contract, and he would be groomed to replace Millsap after next season.


I'm pretty sure that's what MPJr is.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#106 » by Bensational » Tue May 7, 2019 1:15 am

ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:So then the solution is to run the same SL back, but replace the impact of Ross (who had the highest differential of any player on our team between W's and L's)


You say that as if Ross being erratic, to the point that it differentiated between Magic win or loss is a good thing. Consistency from the bench is kind of important.

Of the Magic players considered rotation/fringe rotation players throughout the year, only Simmons, Grant and Bamba were worse:

• Plus/Minus https://on.nba.com/2O2eQEH

• NET Rating https://on.nba.com/2QAVRoF

• On/Off https://on.nba.com/2VSDiyG

His top minutes came with starters:

with Gordon (1242 min)
with Fournier (933 min)
with Vucevic (911 min)
with DJ (757 min)
with Isaac (735 min)

I like Ross and he's a great weapon coming off the bench, but his erratic play isn't an anomaly, its what he's known for. Saying that he saved the starters is just not accurate.

Either way, I've stated to you multiple times that I'm for the retention of assets (Vucevic and Ross). If Ross walks, which is very possible, I'm interested in the Magic using their MLE on a player that can create for others and can handle the ball...guys like Tyreke Evans, Tomas Satoransky, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose off top of my head.


Bensational wrote:I'd be apprehensive of Clifford's track record of his teams regressing after their first season with him, but hopefully we'd have more talent and better balance of that talent.


Track record? Charlotte was his first head coaching gig. His second year in Charlotte, Kemba's injury is the reason they regressed. Walker was out for 2 months in meat of season (Jan 14th - Mar 11th) and never returned to form after return.

But following year they won 48 games and took the Heat (Lebron/Wade/Bosh Super Team) to 7 games in first round.

Bensational wrote:But even if we do run back the same squad and make the playoffs, the future then hinges on Fultz regaining star college form, or Isaac or Bamba showing unpredictable growth as on ball playmakers.It doesn't fill me with hope or excite me.


That's not true at all. That's just the glass half empty perspective. Consolidation trades happen all the time, young cores are never kept together. Assuming that this is the set roster 2 years from now is naive and not at all reflective of the NBA player movement.


Bensational wrote:I think there's a happy medium of preserving room for growth, whilst keeping Vuc for his impact and veteran experience, whilst being more aggressive at finding some backcourt playmakers. Resting on our laurels now feels like wasted time.


I've already posted about the 20-21 trade deadline:
Spoiler:
I think the question should be WHEN will there be the best Fournier trade options.

In my opinion the best use of Fournier as a trade asset will involve combining him with Aaron Gordon in 20-21 at the trade deadline.

There is a reason why Aaron Gordon's contract was structured the way it was. Is it a coincidence that in 20-21 Fournier and Gordon's contracts combine for $35m ($18m + $17m)...the trade salary match for a max player? I think this FO laid the groundwork for a pivotal trade deadline in 20-21.

That year Fournier is an expiring contract and Gordon is a season away from hitting unrestricted free agency. That point will more than likely be the peak trade value for both players and possibly the best chance for a consolidation trade upgrade.

It is very rare that a player stays with his drafting team for 3 contracts. When it happens its nearly always players who are franchise caliber, or close to it, looking to get the biggest contract possible. I find it unlikely that AG will be at that level and thus very unlikely that Gordon re-signs with Magic to spend his peak prime years in Orlando. He'll for the first time be able to choose where he lives and plays. Its going to take contender potential to keep him in Orlando. How likely is that to be realistic outlook in 1.5 years?

To me, that 20-21 trade deadline is when the Magic should be targeting and stockpiling a variety of assets to be ready strike.


I'm not opposed to your proposals at all. I quite like the suggestion of using the MLE on those guys you listed. Your mid term take is interesting.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on your valuation of Ross and Fournier. To me, you overvalue one and undervalue the other. To you, I do the opposite. An affordable replacement for Ross would minimise that loss though.

Clifford's teams in Charlotte showed something of a pattern to me. Slow start, late season hot start. Second season drop off (albeit with Kemba missing games). Big roster change, another inspired effort, and then the team regressed again the following season. Coupled with Vucevic really only displaying this recent standard in a contract year, I don't think it's unfair to remain skeptical about Clifford's ability to keep him, and the rest of the team, maintaining a high level of performance. Doesn't make it a conclusion, but it's perfectly acceptable enough data to have doubts. By all expectations we overachieved this season, so expecting that to be the new standard might be too presumptuous.

I have more faith in WeHam unearthing a quality player with their drafted picks, so it's not completely a half empty take. I have high hopes for Fultz. FA signings will likely be a mix of veteran depth and unproven bargains like Birch and Briscoe.

But amongst all that, Fultz still stands as the only player presently on the roster with the potential to become an elite playmaker. We need more names in that hat.

A consolidation trade only returns value if you're giving up consolidated value, unless you're taking back a veteran with a short lease. I'm dubious Fournier will represent that. Gordon certainly could. However, if we trade Fournier now and manage to return a lower cost prospect, that is someone that could be part of a consolidation trade. Even if we only manage to trade him for cheaper role players, those are easier to move in deadline deals. $17M is hard to move unless the player is justifying the contract.

I wouldn't be disappointed with what you're proposing. But I am also open to exploring other options, too.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#107 » by MagicMatic » Tue May 7, 2019 5:46 am

Bensational wrote:
I have more faith in WeHam unearthing a quality player with their drafted picks, so it's not completely a half empty take. I have high hopes for Fultz. FA signings will likely be a mix of veteran depth and unproven bargains like Birch and Briscoe.

But amongst all that, Fultz still stands as the only player presently on the roster with the potential to become an elite playmaker. We need more names in that hat.

A consolidation trade only returns value if you're giving up consolidated value, unless you're taking back a veteran with a short lease. I'm dubious Fournier will represent that. Gordon certainly could. However, if we trade Fournier now and manage to return a lower cost prospect, that is someone that could be part of a consolidation trade. Even if we only manage to trade him for cheaper role players, those are easier to move in deadline deals. $17M is hard to move unless the player is justifying the contract.



This pretty much sums it all up. How much stock are people putting into Fultz and #16? That’s what Orlando has now currently as options of unknown quantity for back court improvement.

Outside of that, anyone can make hypothetical scenarios and future trade predictions regardless of legitimacy. Isaac and AG are the only viable options as high trade value with age/potential/contract/positional skill set. Fournier isn’t fetching an exceptional return unless its a trade tied to a buried prospect that can grow into something bigger than their current role.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#108 » by Ducklett » Tue May 7, 2019 10:01 am

ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:Dieng is the piece that makes the deal work, because I'm not even sure the Nuggets would want Fournier, and I don't think the Wolves give up Saric + Teague for Fournier + DJ. If they were, then do it. If the Nugs were happy to do Barton + Morris for Fournier, sign me up! Or even Plumlee + Morris for Fournier, even better!


Except the Nuggets don't need to any of this. They have painless options to stay out of luxury tax and retain Morris - a guy they like on super cheap contract for at least another full year.

All they have to do is:

1 renounce their 3 huge TPE's (on Faried, Chandler and Arthur)

2 renounce free agents/cap holds on T Lyles, I Thomas, J Hernangomez, R Jefferson

AND if they want to create $18m in cap space, all they have to do is waive Paul Milsap whose $30m is fully non-guaranteed. But I don't think they'll do that.

Plus they'll get another talent influx as Michael Porter Jr. is reportedly almost ready and will be there at training camp...and apparently looking good.


I really wanted MPJ in that draft. Like I would have blown assets to trade up for a pick to get him. Him falling to 14 might be one of the best value picks since Greek Freak.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#109 » by pepe1991 » Tue May 7, 2019 11:50 am

Ducklett wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:Dieng is the piece that makes the deal work, because I'm not even sure the Nuggets would want Fournier, and I don't think the Wolves give up Saric + Teague for Fournier + DJ. If they were, then do it. If the Nugs were happy to do Barton + Morris for Fournier, sign me up! Or even Plumlee + Morris for Fournier, even better!


Except the Nuggets don't need to any of this. They have painless options to stay out of luxury tax and retain Morris - a guy they like on super cheap contract for at least another full year.

All they have to do is:

1 renounce their 3 huge TPE's (on Faried, Chandler and Arthur)

2 renounce free agents/cap holds on T Lyles, I Thomas, J Hernangomez, R Jefferson

AND if they want to create $18m in cap space, all they have to do is waive Paul Milsap whose $30m is fully non-guaranteed. But I don't think they'll do that.

Plus they'll get another talent influx as Michael Porter Jr. is reportedly almost ready and will be there at training camp...and apparently looking good.


I really wanted MPJ in that draft. Like I would have blown assets to trade up for a pick to get him. Him falling to 14 might be one of the best value picks since Greek Freak.


Time will tell.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#110 » by Skin » Tue May 7, 2019 8:11 pm

Bensational wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:So then the solution is to run the same SL back, but replace the impact of Ross (who had the highest differential of any player on our team between W's and L's)


You say that as if Ross being erratic, to the point that it differentiated between Magic win or loss is a good thing. Consistency from the bench is kind of important.

Of the Magic players considered rotation/fringe rotation players throughout the year, only Simmons, Grant and Bamba were worse:

• Plus/Minus https://on.nba.com/2O2eQEH

• NET Rating https://on.nba.com/2QAVRoF

• On/Off https://on.nba.com/2VSDiyG

His top minutes came with starters:

with Gordon (1242 min)
with Fournier (933 min)
with Vucevic (911 min)
with DJ (757 min)
with Isaac (735 min)

I like Ross and he's a great weapon coming off the bench, but his erratic play isn't an anomaly, its what he's known for. Saying that he saved the starters is just not accurate.

Either way, I've stated to you multiple times that I'm for the retention of assets (Vucevic and Ross). If Ross walks, which is very possible, I'm interested in the Magic using their MLE on a player that can create for others and can handle the ball...guys like Tyreke Evans, Tomas Satoransky, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose off top of my head.


Bensational wrote:I'd be apprehensive of Clifford's track record of his teams regressing after their first season with him, but hopefully we'd have more talent and better balance of that talent.


Track record? Charlotte was his first head coaching gig. His second year in Charlotte, Kemba's injury is the reason they regressed. Walker was out for 2 months in meat of season (Jan 14th - Mar 11th) and never returned to form after return.

But following year they won 48 games and took the Heat (Lebron/Wade/Bosh Super Team) to 7 games in first round.

Bensational wrote:But even if we do run back the same squad and make the playoffs, the future then hinges on Fultz regaining star college form, or Isaac or Bamba showing unpredictable growth as on ball playmakers.It doesn't fill me with hope or excite me.


That's not true at all. That's just the glass half empty perspective. Consolidation trades happen all the time, young cores are never kept together. Assuming that this is the set roster 2 years from now is naive and not at all reflective of the NBA player movement.


Bensational wrote:I think there's a happy medium of preserving room for growth, whilst keeping Vuc for his impact and veteran experience, whilst being more aggressive at finding some backcourt playmakers. Resting on our laurels now feels like wasted time.


I've already posted about the 20-21 trade deadline:
Spoiler:
I think the question should be WHEN will there be the best Fournier trade options.

In my opinion the best use of Fournier as a trade asset will involve combining him with Aaron Gordon in 20-21 at the trade deadline.

There is a reason why Aaron Gordon's contract was structured the way it was. Is it a coincidence that in 20-21 Fournier and Gordon's contracts combine for $35m ($18m + $17m)...the trade salary match for a max player? I think this FO laid the groundwork for a pivotal trade deadline in 20-21.

That year Fournier is an expiring contract and Gordon is a season away from hitting unrestricted free agency. That point will more than likely be the peak trade value for both players and possibly the best chance for a consolidation trade upgrade.

It is very rare that a player stays with his drafting team for 3 contracts. When it happens its nearly always players who are franchise caliber, or close to it, looking to get the biggest contract possible. I find it unlikely that AG will be at that level and thus very unlikely that Gordon re-signs with Magic to spend his peak prime years in Orlando. He'll for the first time be able to choose where he lives and plays. Its going to take contender potential to keep him in Orlando. How likely is that to be realistic outlook in 1.5 years?

To me, that 20-21 trade deadline is when the Magic should be targeting and stockpiling a variety of assets to be ready strike.


I'm not opposed to your proposals at all. I quite like the suggestion of using the MLE on those guys you listed. Your mid term take is interesting.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on your valuation of Ross and Fournier. To me, you overvalue one and undervalue the other. To you, I do the opposite. An affordable replacement for Ross would minimise that loss though.

Clifford's teams in Charlotte showed something of a pattern to me. Slow start, late season hot start. Second season drop off (albeit with Kemba missing games). Big roster change, another inspired effort, and then the team regressed again the following season. Coupled with Vucevic really only displaying this recent standard in a contract year, I don't think it's unfair to remain skeptical about Clifford's ability to keep him, and the rest of the team, maintaining a high level of performance. Doesn't make it a conclusion, but it's perfectly acceptable enough data to have doubts. By all expectations we overachieved this season, so expecting that to be the new standard might be too presumptuous.

I have more faith in WeHam unearthing a quality player with their drafted picks, so it's not completely a half empty take. I have high hopes for Fultz. FA signings will likely be a mix of veteran depth and unproven bargains like Birch and Briscoe.

But amongst all that, Fultz still stands as the only player presently on the roster with the potential to become an elite playmaker. We need more names in that hat.

A consolidation trade only returns value if you're giving up consolidated value, unless you're taking back a veteran with a short lease. I'm dubious Fournier will represent that. Gordon certainly could. However, if we trade Fournier now and manage to return a lower cost prospect, that is someone that could be part of a consolidation trade. Even if we only manage to trade him for cheaper role players, those are easier to move in deadline deals. $17M is hard to move unless the player is justifying the contract.

I wouldn't be disappointed with what you're proposing. But I am also open to exploring other options, too.

Ben, you should update the first post with the best trade ideas.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#111 » by ezzzp » Wed May 8, 2019 12:08 am

Bensational wrote:Clifford's teams in Charlotte showed something of a pattern to me. Slow start, late season hot start. Second season drop off (albeit with Kemba missing games).


I'm not seeing this "Slow start, late season hot" pattern...plus its a pretty big generalization that can describe half the league. Here is a closer look:

Spoiler:
2013-2014: 43-39

(Nov) 17-8 (Dec) 15-6 (Jan) 7-9 (Feb) 6-4 (Mar) 9-7 (Apr) 7-1

26 win improvement and 1st round sweep by the Miami super-team.

Key Reasons for improvement: Development of Walker + offseason acquisition of Al Jefferson


2014-2015: 33-49

(Nov) 4-14 (Dec) 6-9 (Jan) 10-4 (Feb) 3-6 (Mar) 8-9 (Apr) 2-7

10 win regression and no playoffs.

Key Reasons for regression: Injuries to A Jefferson for 3 weeks in early January and K Walker for 2 months mid Jan to mid March. Big $ off-season acquisitions of Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams laid an egg. Stephenson was a total disaster. According to Charlotte media, Stephenson was locker room cancer who ruined the team’s chemistry, and refused to fit into system. They immediately traded him at seasons end.

2015-2016: 48-34

(Nov) 10-5 (Dec) 7-7 (Jan) 6-11 (Feb) 7-3 (Mar) 13-3 (Apr) 5-3

15 win improvement and took Miami super-team to 7 games in 1st rd

Key Reasons for improvement: Kemba Walker takes a huge leap in efficiency and 3P%. Addition of free agents Nic Batum, J Lin, and C Lee. Clifford balanced the lineup by moving Jefferson to bench as 6th man, inserting better defender C Zeller into starting unit. Bench unit of J Lin/A Jefferson/J Lamb/C Lee/MKG are one of best bench units in NBA that season.


2016-2017: 36-46

(Nov) 10-8 (Dec) 9-7 (Jan) 4-11 (Feb) 3-8 (Mar) 9-7 (Apr) 1-5

12 win regression. No Playoffs

Key Reasons for regression: Lost 3 key pieces of their bench to FA (Lin, Jefferson and Lee). Bench was major reason for prior year success. Went from top bench to one of worst. Batum and Williams have underwhelming season


2017-2018: 8-12

Clifford has health scare on December 6th...out for season, ends tenure in Charlotte.



Bensational wrote:Coupled with Vucevic really only displaying this recent standard in a contract year I don't think it's unfair to remain skeptical about Clifford's ability to keep him, and the rest of the team, maintaining a high level of performance. Doesn't make it a conclusion, but it's perfectly acceptable enough data to have doubts.


Totally disagree. Before Vogel's arrival, Vucevic was in All-Star conversation in 14-15 and 15-16 seasons.

If he's the type of person that only tries in contract years to milk as much money as possible; then why did he unnecessarily sign an early extension at team friendly discount (4y/$53m) before the 14-15 season to play in Orlando?

Every player and agent in NBA knew that the salary cap was going to take a giant leap the following summer. All he had to do was hit RFA in 15-16 and he would have gotten a massive payday. That's the summer a lot of players, including many bigs got paid...Biyombo $72m, Mozgov $68m, Noah $72m etc .

24 year old Vucevic (2014-15): 19.3 PPG / 10.9 REB / 21.5 PER

25 year old Vucevic (2015-16): 18.2 PPG / 8.9 REB / 21.1 PER

28 year old peak prime Vucevic (18-19): 20.8 PPG / 12.0 REB / 25.5 PER ...and an All-Star

Bensational wrote:By all expectations we overachieved this season, so expecting that to be the new standard might be too presumptuous.


Not me. This season, I was expecting a 36-37 win season and more if one of the young players took a leap. It turned out to be Vucevic who elevated and got back on the ascent track he was prior to Vogel.

In 16-17 I thought the Magic were a better team that was underperforming and being held back by Vogel's lack of offensive imagination and stubbornness to employ obvious weapons at his disposal creating a poor chemistry on the court. In 17-18, injuries decimated the team. Once Clifford got hired and I saw how patient the FO was behaving, I expected a considerable improvement from this roster.

Bensational wrote: A consolidation trade only returns value if you're giving up consolidated value, unless you're taking back a veteran with a short lease. I'm dubious Fournier will represent that. Gordon certainly could.


I expect Fournier's shooting to return to form. I thought he really improved his defense and his playmaking this year. Josh Robbins' most recent Athletic article agrees with me on his improvement in those categories. In his exit interview, Fournier says he thought he got better as an overall player but for some reason his shots didn't fall this year. I agree with him.

Fournier has been an above average shooter since before he was in NBA. I'm more inclined to think last season was an anomaly, not that he suddenly forgot how to shoot.

If Fournier had shot his career average from 3PT range (.371) instead of (.340), he would have added 5.2 PPG...taking him to 20.3 PPG. Of course that's not reality and purely hypothetical, but it does hint that the space is there for a nice jump in point production.

His scoring/creation trajectory coupled with his entry into peak prime indicate to me that there is good reason to think he continues his ascent to peak (28) in 2020-21.

(14-15) 12.0 PPG / 11.5 AST%
(15-16) 15.4 PPG / 12.8 AST%
(16-17) 17.2 PPG / 14.8 AST%
(17-18) 17.8 PPG / 14.8 AST%
(18-19) 15.1 PPG / 17.6 AST%


Bensational wrote: However, if we trade Fournier now and manage to return a lower cost prospect, that is someone that could be part of a consolidation trade. Even if we only manage to trade him for cheaper role players, those are easier to move in deadline deals. $17M is hard to move unless the player is justifying the contract.


I wouldn't trade Fournier early unless there was a clear upgrade to the roster involved. To me that's absolutely not for a "low cost prospect" that might never be half as good as Fournier.

Fournier is 26 now heading into his peak prime starting next season. He's not a 29 year old Aflallo on an expiring contract; or a 28 year old JJ Redick about to enter UFA in 3 months.

Cheaper role players aren't easier or harder to trade at the deadline. Every trade transaction is unique in context.

I disagree that a 15.7% of cap contract (in 2019-20) / 14.9% of cap (in 2020-21) is hard to move. Average salary for NBA starters has hovered between 16%-17% of cap for many years. Fournier is a proven starter at 26, and will be at peak prime for final two years of contract.

Magic fans like you have undervalued Fournier since the day he was traded to Orlando. He has done nothing but exceed expectations. If he was a high lottery pick from NCAA most Magic fans would love him.

As is evident by actions, not rhetoric - NBA GM's and NBA coaches don't undervalue him. He'll be a valuable asset to consolidate in the coming years.

Bensational wrote: I wouldn't be disappointed with what you're proposing. But I am also open to exploring other options, too.


I'm open to other options, but I'm not open to giving away good assets (like Fournier) for garbage just because of a sector of Magic fans don't like the player
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#112 » by Bensational » Wed May 8, 2019 2:29 am

ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:Clifford's teams in Charlotte showed something of a pattern to me. Slow start, late season hot start. Second season drop off (albeit with Kemba missing games).


I'm not seeing this "Slow start, late season hot" pattern...plus its a pretty big generalization that can describe half the league. Here is a closer look:

Spoiler:
2013-2014: 43-39

(Nov) 17-8 (Dec) 15-6 (Jan) 7-9 (Feb) 6-4 (Mar) 9-7 (Apr) 7-1

26 win improvement and 1st round sweep by the Miami super-team.

Key Reasons for improvement: Development of Walker + offseason acquisition of Al Jefferson


2014-2015: 33-49

(Nov) 4-14 (Dec) 6-9 (Jan) 10-4 (Feb) 3-6 (Mar) 8-9 (Apr) 2-7

10 win regression and no playoffs.

Key Reasons for regression: Injuries to A Jefferson for 3 weeks in early January and K Walker for 2 months mid Jan to mid March. Big $ off-season acquisitions of Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams laid an egg. Stephenson was a total disaster. According to Charlotte media, Stephenson was locker room cancer who ruined the team’s chemistry, and refused to fit into system. They immediately traded him at seasons end.

2015-2016: 48-34

(Nov) 10-5 (Dec) 7-7 (Jan) 6-11 (Feb) 7-3 (Mar) 13-3 (Apr) 5-3

15 win improvement and took Miami super-team to 7 games in 1st rd

Key Reasons for improvement: Kemba Walker takes a huge leap in efficiency and 3P%. Addition of free agents Nic Batum, J Lin, and C Lee. Clifford balanced the lineup by moving Jefferson to bench as 6th man, inserting better defender C Zeller into starting unit. Bench unit of J Lin/A Jefferson/J Lamb/C Lee/MKG are one of best bench units in NBA that season.


2016-2017: 36-46

(Nov) 10-8 (Dec) 9-7 (Jan) 4-11 (Feb) 3-8 (Mar) 9-7 (Apr) 1-5

12 win regression. No Playoffs

Key Reasons for regression: Lost 3 key pieces of their bench to FA (Lin, Jefferson and Lee). Bench was major reason for prior year success. Went from top bench to one of worst. Batum and Williams have underwhelming season


2017-2018: 8-12

Clifford has health scare on December 6th...out for season, ends tenure in Charlotte.



The pattern is there.

2014-15
First 41: 17-24
Second 41: 25-14


2015-16
Before Kemba was injured: 18-26.
Whilst Kemba was injured: 10-8
Upon Kemba return: 5-15


2016-17
First 41: 19-22
Last 41: 28-12

2017-18
First 41: 20-21
Second 41: 16-24

3/4 slow starts. 2/4 hot finishes. 2/4 sort-of-collapses.

Even in the injured Kemba year, that injury didn't make the impact you're trying to present it as, as they actually had a better record over that stretch than during the time Kemba played.

There's a pattern there.

Bensational wrote:Coupled with Vucevic really only displaying this recent standard in a contract year I don't think it's unfair to remain skeptical about Clifford's ability to keep him, and the rest of the team, maintaining a high level of performance. Doesn't make it a conclusion, but it's perfectly acceptable enough data to have doubts.


Totally disagree. Before Vogel's arrival, Vucevic was in All-Star conversation in 14-15 and 15-16 seasons.

Spoiler:
If he's the type of person that only tries in contract years to milk as much money as possible; then why did he unnecessarily sign an early extension at team friendly discount (4y/$53m) before the 14-15 season to play in Orlando?

Every player and agent in NBA knew that the salary cap was going to take a giant leap the following summer. All he had to do was hit RFA in 15-16 and he would have gotten a massive payday. That's the summer a lot of players, including many bigs got paid...Biyombo $72m, Mozgov $68m, Noah $72m etc .

24 year old Vucevic (2014-15): 19.3 PPG / 10.9 REB / 21.5 PER

25 year old Vucevic (2015-16): 18.2 PPG / 8.9 REB / 21.1 PER

28 year old peak prime Vucevic (18-19): 20.8 PPG / 12.0 REB / 25.5 PER ...and an All-Star


I'm sorry, but arbitrary claims like "in the consideration for all star" don't really pull any weight or add value. They're completely intangible, and ultimately - he wasn't one.

Why would Vuc risk financial security and take a 1 year deal over a long term offer, on a team where he was being gifted minutes and a featured role? Of course he would be happy to take a bit less with that in mind. He's also probably just a good bloke who did the team a solid. Now? He's suffered through 6 years of losing, looking at his last big pay day opporunity, and he has a baby now, so his incentives and priorities could have shifted to give him extra motivation for this season. You can't pretend that contract years don't add incentive for players to give extra effort.


Bensational wrote:By all expectations we overachieved this season, so expecting that to be the new standard might be too presumptuous.


Not me. This season, I was expecting a 36-37 win season and more if one of the young players took a leap. It turned out to be Vucevic who elevated and got back on the ascent track he was prior to Vogel.


So, they still overachieved even by your own expectations. And overachieved on the back of a contract year player performing at an exceptionally high standard for himself.

Bensational wrote: However, if we trade Fournier now and manage to return a lower cost prospect, that is someone that could be part of a consolidation trade. Even if we only manage to trade him for cheaper role players, those are easier to move in deadline deals. $17M is hard to move unless the player is justifying the contract.


I wouldn't trade Fournier early unless there was a clear upgrade to the roster involved. To me that's absolutely not for a "low cost prospect" that might never be half as good as Fournier.

Fournier is 26 now heading into his peak prime starting next season. He's not a 29 year old Aflallo on an expiring contract; or a 28 year old JJ Redick about to enter UFA in 3 months.


Afflalo is probably a fair comp. He also posted highly efficient numbers. What was his end value? Did he end up becoming a major contributor on other teams, after being a primary focal point for Orlando? No. He became a cheap role playing journeyman.

Cheaper role players aren't easier or harder to trade at the deadline. Every trade transaction is unique in context.


What? Smaller, cheaper contracts are always easier to move.

Magic fans like you have undervalued Fournier since the day he was traded to Orlando. He has done nothing but exceed expectations. If he was a high lottery pick from NCAA most Magic fans would love him.

As is evident by actions, not rhetoric - NBA GM's and NBA coaches don't undervalue him. He'll be a valuable asset to consolidate in the coming years.


See, you're just lumping me into a pool of people whose opinions you won't entertain, but I've been a Fournier fan from early on. I was quite vocal about trading Oladipo because I thought we had Fournier as a better option (woof, was I wrong there). I always liked him. I still like what his game offers. But, on a team that's strapped for playmaking potential, I don't see him as being integral in any way, shape, or form. There is a reason why a playmaking backcourt is our biggest need whilst Fournier is still playing there.

What evidence from GMs are you talking about? The fact he's on the team being testament to how valued he is? Or is it testament to the team not being able to get a decent return for him?

Bensational wrote: I wouldn't be disappointed with what you're proposing. But I am also open to exploring other options, too.


I'm open to other options, but I'm not open to giving away good assets (like Fournier) for garbage just because of a sector of Magic fans don't like the player


I've not seen anything to suggest you're open to the prospect in any way. In a thread titled "What are your best Fournier trade proposals", you haven't listed a single proposal. You've just said "hold on to him and hope to consolidate him later". Try to entertain some possible thoughts for trades, because you've got a great mind for that and I often like your ideas.

Even though we disagree on how much we value Fournier, I'm not disagreeing because I think your data or logic is flawed. They're just different approaches to hypothetical GM'ing.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#113 » by ezzzp » Wed May 8, 2019 4:56 am

Bensational wrote: The pattern is there.


You just used half season chunks to hide peak/valley fluctuation of monthly increments that reveal actual pattern :lol:

Not to mention that even if it is a pattern all that does is basically describe most teams in the NBA every season...its totally meaningless. There are contenders that start slow and end strong and vice versa. That's not an indicator of anything. It can mean an influx of new players, timing of injuries, what condition key players arrived at camp, youth hitting wall etc etc etc.

Bensational wrote:I'm sorry, but arbitrary claims like "in the consideration for all star" don't really pull any weight or add value. They're completely intangible, and ultimately - he wasn't one.


I'm sorry but they do. Its a sign of value around the league. Those opinions were made by coaches, GM's, other players and media - their opinions carry weight. Plus his numbers tangibly show why they had those opinions.

Bensational wrote:Why would Vuc risk financial security and take a 1 year deal over a long term offer, on a team where he was being gifted minutes and a featured role? Of course he would be happy to take a bit less with that in mind.


1 year deal? What are you talking about.

All Vucevic and his agent had to do is point to the coming cap inflation and adjust his salary demand to reflect that coming increase. Instead Vucevic took a massive discount (one based on 14-15 cap at that) PLUS he signed an early extension instead of hitting RFA and letting the market set the price...a market that would have bid high knowing the coming cap inflation.

...and Vucevic was not being gifted minutes. He was in All-Star conversation and putting up great numbers.


Bensational wrote:He's suffered through 6 years of losing, looking at his last big pay day opporunity, and he has a baby now, so his incentives and priorities could have shifted to give him extra motivation for this season. You can't pretend that contract years don't add incentive for players to give extra effort.


Those are your assumptions. You don't know Vucevic or what he's thinking..plus he's a multi-millionaire, if anything raising his child in family friendly city would be more in line with your logic.

Vucevic has stated countless times that he wants to stay in Orlando and has said on multiple occasions how he respects players that stay with one franchise.

Your contract year theory excludes real facts...

...like he hit his peak prime (and will stay there for at least 2-3 more years)

...like he now has a coach who knows how to use his skill set

...like how now his team is playing to win instead of tanking

...like how he added the 3PT shot - reducing the long 2's that were hurting his efficiency - and that's very likely to keep improving as he's always been a good shooter

...etc etc etc

Bensational wrote:Afflalo is probably a fair comp. He also posted highly efficient numbers. What was his end value? Did he end up becoming a major contributor on other teams, after being a primary focal point for Orlando? No. He became a cheap role playing journeyman.


Aflallo was 29, Fournier will be heading into his peak...and Fournier has already had 3 seasons nearly as good as AA's best season...all before he was 26.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#114 » by Bensational » Wed May 8, 2019 6:34 am

ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote: The pattern is there.


You just used half season chunks to hide peak/valley fluctuation of monthly increments that reveal actual pattern :lol:

Not to mention that even if it is a pattern all that does is basically describe most teams in the NBA every season...its totally meaningless. There are contenders that start slow and end strong and vice versa. That's not an indicator of anything. It can mean an influx of new players, timing of injuries, what condition key players arrived at camp, youth hitting wall etc etc etc.


A pattern is a pattern. Same way our team has shown a pattern for going on significant losing stretches over December and January for most of the past 4 seasons.

Bensational wrote:I'm sorry, but arbitrary claims like "in the consideration for all star" don't really pull any weight or add value. They're completely intangible, and ultimately - he wasn't one.


I'm sorry but they do. Its a sign of value around the league. Those opinions were made by coaches, GM's, other players and media - their opinions carry weight. Plus his numbers tangibly show why they had those opinions.


What do you even have to substantiate the vagueness of "in the consideration for"? It's pure conjecture at best, and worth nothing.

You say the opinions of other coaches and GMs carry weight, well, their opinions spoke those two seasons - Vucevic wasn't an all-star.


Bensational wrote:Afflalo is probably a fair comp. He also posted highly efficient numbers. What was his end value? Did he end up becoming a major contributor on other teams, after being a primary focal point for Orlando? No. He became a cheap role playing journeyman.


Aflallo was 29, Fournier will be heading into his peak...and Fournier has already had 3 seasons nearly as good as AA's best season...all before he was 26.


Afflalo was 27 and 28 when he played here. He was in his peak, the same age Fournier is about to be for next season. And Fournier has only had 1 season that's comparable to Afflalo's best, and that was when he was when he was a 4th option. Since Fournier signed his extension and teams have recognised him as a primary option for us (when his USG% hit 23%), his efficiency has dropped. His TS% over those 3 years is .556. His 3pt% is 36%. His free throw rate has gone down every year. They're not 'bad' numbers at all. They're quite fine for a role player. But this is the point - we need more than just a role player presently.

Afflalo, for the record, was the #1 option, and over those two seasons his numbers trended up across the board. And he still ended up a journeyman role player.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#115 » by Xatticus » Wed May 8, 2019 6:34 am

ezzzp wrote:If Fournier had shot his career average from 3PT range (.371) instead of (.340), he would have added 5.2 PPG...taking him to 20.3 PPG.


That is some ridiculously bad math.

The difference between .340 and .371 on Fournier's volume is 14 additional makes over the course of the entire season. That's a total of 42 extra points for the year or an additional half of a point per game. To give you some perspective on the insignificance of that, the value of a single possession is about 1.1 points.

Per game scoring is primarily a function of field goal attempts. Fournier could score an extra five points per game and it wouldn't actually mean he is any better. He could score five fewer points per game and it wouldn't actually mean he was any worse.

Fournier could easily reach that additional 5.2 points per game if we simply took 4.5 shots per game away from the rest of the team and gave them to Fournier. That would almost certainly do more harm than good though, as he was below the team average in efficiency metrics.

Personally, I see little point in giving a large share of offense to average offensive players that bring little else to the team. An Aaron Gordon shot is significantly more valuable than an Evan Fournier shot because it comes along with the defense and versatility that Gordon brings when he is on the floor.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#116 » by pepe1991 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:53 am

Xatticus wrote:
ezzzp wrote:If Fournier had shot his career average from 3PT range (.371) instead of (.340), he would have added 5.2 PPG...taking him to 20.3 PPG.


That is some ridiculously bad math.

The difference between .340 and .371 on Fournier's volume is 14 additional makes over the course of the entire season. That's a total of 42 extra points for the year or an additional half of a point per game. To give you some perspective on the insignificance of that, the value of a single possession is about 1.1 points.

Per game scoring is primarily a function of field goal attempts. Fournier could score an extra five points per game and it wouldn't actually mean he is any better. He could score five fewer points per game and it wouldn't actually mean he was any worse.

Fournier could easily reach that additional 5.2 points per game if we simply took 4.5 shots per game away from the rest of the team and gave them to Fournier. That would almost certainly do more harm than good though, as he was below the team average in efficiency metrics.

Personally, I see little point in giving a large share of offense to average offensive players that bring little else to the team. An Aaron Gordon shot is significantly more valuable than an Evan Fournier shot because it comes along with the defense and versatility that Gordon brings when he is on the floor.



You start off with logical answer , on ezzp clear mistake on how ppg adds to 3% ,than finish your post on ridiculous claims that shots of Gordon have more value than shots of Evan.

Why?
Their eFG% : Gordon 50,7%, Evan 50,9%
their TS% Gordon 53,8% , Evan 53,6%

So from pure value per shot perspective ,there is virtually zero difference.

Even if we expend contribution to offense from potential assists, FT%, FT rate and impact on offense by offensive rating, we still get:
Evan with 109,3 off rating ,vs Gordon 106,6
Evan with 17,6% assist percentage vs Gordon 16,6
Evan had the worst year at drawing fouls since 2013-14 ,yet even that doesn't give Gordon some edge in their debate because Gordon sitting at 3,2 FTA a game still doesn't do it well enough ( or knocks them down at good rate, 73%, for career below league's average ).

Given rest of advance stats is pretty similar, without any significant indicators of Gordon's superiority ( or Evan's for that matter) , it's more than safe to say that there is zero difference,based on 2018-19 season between Evan or Gordon trying to score. Results are in both cases mediocre.
Historically, Evan is superior offensive player by wide margin based on his spot ups ,FT%, TS, eFG% ... Will Gordon surpass him in future is yet to be determined.

But if you are going to act like fact chacking police, at least yet your facts straight.

Bonus fact:
Over last 3 years, Evan's points per shot were 1,25, 1,23 and now this year dipped to 1,15, with always ranks him around middle of pack among SGs, apart from this year where he is terrible ( second worst)

Gordon's points per shots are 1,15, 1,18 and 1,19 , but that also always ranks him among top 5 worst PFs.
For comparison Griffin's points per shot is 1,37 and best value per shot, at PF goes to Giannis and his 1,60 points, where, at SG position NOBODY gives you better than 1,35.

I don't want to argue Gordon vs Evan, i want to argue logic vs " i wanna be logical as long as it fits my bias".

Conclusion: both players , one in bad year and one in his probably second best year, give mediocre results when they shoot. There is no difference in their shots, efficiency and logical answer on question who should shoot more is -neither. But that goes beyond this argument.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#117 » by zaymon » Wed May 8, 2019 8:31 am

Xatticus wrote:Personally, I see little point in giving a large share of offense to average offensive players that bring little else to the team. An Aaron Gordon shot is significantly more valuable than an Evan Fournier shot because it comes along with the defense and versatility that Gordon brings when he is on the floor.

That is some very weird logic. So you think PJ Tucker shot is more valuable than Harden becouse he is more versatile on defense? Now we know why they havent won a championship, they should give all shots to their best defenders and hardest defensive assignments to their best offensive players. Fournier right now is better offensive player than Gordon by a mile. Playing offense through your least capable players is Vogel style coaching. Good luck.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#118 » by pepe1991 » Wed May 8, 2019 9:23 am

This place turned into " he is my favorite player and that means he is best, don't ask me why, because i said so".

I simply don't get it. I like Vučević, is somebody asks me would i dump him for Pelicans lottery pick and Holiday or Celtics youth and some scrubs i would be like


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People here all have their personal agendas that in most cases don't even benefit team, just their favorite player. For years people want to see Gordon on 20 wins team just so he can put up 20 points and they can have victory lap how "haters" were wrong about him being star. That 20 wins doesn't really matter . Probably they would ride " not enough help" as excuse for another 5 yeras.

I liked Hezonja, but when guy had second year where he looked how he did, i gave up on him, and guy is my countryman. Objectivelly, he was horrid.
I like Bamba, but guy played poorly in rookie year. I won't give up on him, but i will still be objective enough to say he played poorly.
I "hate" Trae Young, but i'll admit my Brandon Jennings comp was poor.
Yesterday Skin in same sentence called Ingram bust and Isaac great prospect.

I know that nobody expects us to be 100% objective and unbiased, but this forum turned into complete clownshow with posters half-trolling and fade for months just to return when tables flip in their agenda-filled favor.

And again, i don't care about being right or wrong, what pisses me off is that most of bias goes at expense of own team, that they are allegedly support. How can you be fan of a team if only thing you wanna se is bunch of 19 years old contribute to 10 wins , to add even more 19 years old players until one day one of them isn't new Lebron ?

Literally every single Magic youth player is held by: future hall of famer until proven otherwise standards, if you dare to be objective and say something critial , you are hatefull idoit. Yet when they are proven wrong ( Hezonja, Payton...) they never talk about them riding their d***s for half of decade.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#119 » by Bensational » Wed May 8, 2019 10:07 am

This thread started for people to suggest their best Fournier trade proposals. If you want to discuss why Fournier shouldn't be traded, make a thread for that. If you want to start a thread about the best Gordon trades, make a thread for that. If you object to trade proposals for Fournier, then why waste your time making that case on a forum for wannabe GMs discussing potential changes in the lead up to the offseason?

There's room for all opinions here. People need to just let some topics go if they disagree.
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Re: What are your best Fournier trade proposals? 

Post#120 » by Bensational » Wed May 8, 2019 10:50 am

pepe1991 wrote:And again, i don't care about being right or wrong, what pisses me off is that most of bias goes at expense of own team, that they are allegedly support. How can you be fan of a team if only thing you wanna se is bunch of 19 years old contribute to 10 wins , to add even more 19 years old players until one day one of them isn't new Lebron ?

Literally every single Magic youth player is held by: future hall of famer until proven otherwise standards, if you dare to be objective and say something critial , you are hatefull idoit. Yet when they are proven wrong ( Hezonja, Payton...) they never talk about them riding their d***s for half of decade.


Oh bull you don't. I've never seen someone twist stats the way you do, and Ive NEVER seen you admit to being wrong. And to say you don't care about being right or wrong, and then to end with a point about people being 'proven wrong' is a pure contradiction of that. Nevermind you celebrating when Bamba got injured off the back of a discussion that you fundamentally misunderstood.

I've never really seem you say a positive thing about the team, you're always looking to crap on it and play contrarian. The only players you stick up for consistently are euros, and DJ Augustin. Don't try and high road this. That's a joke.
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