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GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion

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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#101 » by Skin » Fri May 31, 2019 9:05 pm

Too much semantics.... big change... little change... both could constitute as blowing up... or changing up... or mixing up... whatever you want to call it. But any time a star name or names are involved.... that's HUGE!
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#102 » by MagicMatic » Fri May 31, 2019 9:34 pm

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
ezzzp wrote:

That is absolutely replicable by the Magic. Its why I've been insistent on retaining Vuc/Ross to both retain the assets and keep the young players gradually developing within a competitive context. Free agency is the least likely mechanism for improving this roster, trading and draft/development are...both of those methods are maximized within a competitive context.


Yeah, just find Giannis level talent at pick 16 and trade #9 pick Derozen talent for a top 3 player in the league. No big deal. Absolutely replicable in Orlandos position. :lol:
We are right around the corner from landing that talent bringing back Vuc and Ross... definitely...


I value our young players more than you. Plus I have more confidence in this FO's ability to develop Isaac, Gordon, Fultz and Bamba.

I'm not going to put a cap on Isaac after 100 games played; or on Bamba and his 47 games played; or on Fultz and his 33 games played. Giannis at that stage also was a raw and lanky kid. Quality development of his physical gifts turned him into what he is...not hype.

Fans like you would have wanted to dump DeRozan and blow it all up. That trade asset was turned into Kawhi.

You do not know what the trade market will be in the future...what size contracts will be needed, what positions will be compatible etc.


You don’t know what value i have in the younger players. I’ve consistently said the only reason watching this team is AG, Isaac, and the prospect of Fultz. I’m higher on Bamba than most on this board despite begin against the pick because of what Birch has shown.

I would have dumped Derozen (which is what they did) for a better/bigger acquisition. The timing worked out for them perfectly and could have easily not. They got extremely lucky and took a gamble. It worked.

No I don’t know what the trade market is in the future, but nobody is breaking down the door to play with Vuc in Orlando. They need to find that kind of player before re-investing in a barely .500 roster.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#103 » by ezzzp » Fri May 31, 2019 9:42 pm

OrlandoNed wrote:The Raptors did kinda blow it up when they traded 5 players including DeRozan for Kawhi, Green and Gasol. DeRozan was a trade asset because they wanted to dump him. Toronto had thought DeRozan was the guy to stick with as a number 1 option, until they got tired of him crapping his pants in the playoffs and realized what their ceiling was with him. They made up their minds at that point that DeRozan wasn't good enough to build around and had to go and got lucky with a bizarre schism between Kawhi and the Spurs popping up, something that NEVER happens with one of the most stable front offices in the league. We are going to reach that point with Vuc eventually, because like with DeRozan, we all know that Vuc is mentally weak and we will get tired of him eventually when we get fed up with the same results or worse year after year.

Spinning your wheels and going nowhere, waiting for the next superstar schism to happen for us to pounce on could keep us waiting for years. Those don't happen often, but when they do there is no guarantee that we will be the ones winning a bidding war; but the draft that happens every year is something you can set your watch to and has actual numbers to crunch for risk-assessment and much better odds of success than playing the billion to one, pissed off superstar scratch off lotto or the middle of the draft for a perennial MVP candidate.

You can prefer just waiting and praying and hoping for something that might never come but being proactive with the draft to find a foundational piece to build your team around will always be a smarter way to construct the core of a title roster, especially for a small market like Orlando. Plus, do you even believe the risk-averse, uber conservative pansies in our front office would have the balls to even pull the trigger on a trade for a disgruntled superstar on a soon to expire deal who openly pines for a big market who most likely wouldn't stay? Please don't compare a gutsy move like that to making an extremely low-risk move trading a few inconsequential assets for Markelle Fultz and don't point to events like Paul George and OKC like they aren't the exceptions to the rule. Don't forget the only reason George chose to stay in OKC was to keep playing with Westbrook, a superstar who was drafted high.


Sorry, but trading for a DPOY/NBA Finals MVP/top 5 player in NBA is not blowing it up.

Spinning the lottery wheel going nowhere and crossing fingers that a potential superstar lands in your lap could (and has) kept us waiting for years. That is not being proactive, its reckless gambling.

Both can be described as treadmills...the main difference is that in one you are bottom feeding.

FYI that FO that you just insulted, they built or had major role in building Toronto and Milwaukee teams. I'm going to trust them.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#104 » by ezzzp » Fri May 31, 2019 9:56 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Yeah, just find Giannis level talent at pick 16 and trade #9 pick Derozen talent for a top 3 player in the league. No big deal. Absolutely replicable in Orlandos position. :lol:
We are right around the corner from landing that talent bringing back Vuc and Ross... definitely...


I value our young players more than you. Plus I have more confidence in this FO's ability to develop Isaac, Gordon, Fultz and Bamba.

I'm not going to put a cap on Isaac after 100 games played; or on Bamba and his 47 games played; or on Fultz and his 33 games played. Giannis at that stage also was a raw and lanky kid. Quality development of his physical gifts turned him into what he is...not hype.

Fans like you would have wanted to dump DeRozan and blow it all up. That trade asset was turned into Kawhi.

You do not know what the trade market will be in the future...what size contracts will be needed, what positions will be compatible etc.


You don’t know what I value i have in the younger players. I’ve consistently said the only reason watching this team is AG, Isaac, and the prospect of Fultz. I’m higher on Bamba than most on this board despite begin against the pick because of what Birch has shown.

I would have dumped Derozen (which is what they did) for a better/bigger acquisition. The timing worked out for them perfectly and could have easily not.

No I don’t know what the trade market is in the future, but nobody is breaking down the door to play with Vuc in Orlando. They need to find that kind of player before re-investing in a barely .500 roster.


Your words in the past couple of days:

"Fultz could easily never see an nba court and Isaac/ AG could easily not be answers offensively when Orlando moves on from Vuc and theoretically Conley in this scenario."

"Isaac, AG, Bamba, Fultz, and Iwundu haven’t necessarily instilled confidence that we will be set offensively in the future"


You would have dumped DD way earlier than that and I'm positive it wouldn't have been for Kawhi with no guarantee, you would have wasted that asset and started a rebuild to focus on "potential"

You don't know what the future is, you just admitted it, so how are you establishing that no one will want to play in Orlando - especially since the primary vehicle for Magic moving forward will be trades?
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#105 » by MagicMatic » Fri May 31, 2019 10:10 pm

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
I value our young players more than you. Plus I have more confidence in this FO's ability to develop Isaac, Gordon, Fultz and Bamba.

I'm not going to put a cap on Isaac after 100 games played; or on Bamba and his 47 games played; or on Fultz and his 33 games played. Giannis at that stage also was a raw and lanky kid. Quality development of his physical gifts turned him into what he is...not hype.

Fans like you would have wanted to dump DeRozan and blow it all up. That trade asset was turned into Kawhi.

You do not know what the trade market will be in the future...what size contracts will be needed, what positions will be compatible etc.


You don’t know what I value i have in the younger players. I’ve consistently said the only reason watching this team is AG, Isaac, and the prospect of Fultz. I’m higher on Bamba than most on this board despite begin against the pick because of what Birch has shown.

I would have dumped Derozen (which is what they did) for a better/bigger acquisition. The timing worked out for them perfectly and could have easily not.

No I don’t know what the trade market is in the future, but nobody is breaking down the door to play with Vuc in Orlando. They need to find that kind of player before re-investing in a barely .500 roster.


Your words in the past couple of days:

"Fultz could easily never see an nba court and Isaac/ AG could easily not be answers offensively when Orlando moves on from Vuc and theoretically Conley in this scenario."

"Isaac, AG, Bamba, Fultz, and Iwundu haven’t necessarily instilled confidence that we will be set offensively in the future"


You would have dumped DD way earlier than that and I'm positive it wouldn't have been for Kawhi with no guarantee, you would have wasted that asset and started a rebuild to focus on "potential"

You don't know what the future is, you just admitted it, so how are you establishing that no one will want to play in Orlando - especially since the primary vehicle for Magic moving forward will be trades?


None of what I said is out of the realm of possibility. Just because I don’t think AG and Isaac won’t be Kawhi or Giannis level players doesn’t mean I don’t believe in them to be solid contributors.

We are talking about comparing them to top 5-10 players that they aren’t and won’t be. Those are the players Orlando needs to acquire, by any means possible, to build moving forward. This is the difference we have in roster building. You find your special elite talent first, then you build around them through Free agency, the draft, and trades. You don’t hold your cards with mediocre to fringe allstar talent for multiple years expecting things to change with an inherited roster from a previously failed management.

Let me get this straight, you are critical of my “valuing” the youth on this roster, but you also think the “primary vehicle” for Orlando’s talent acquisition moving forward will be trades. Who then? AG, Isaac, Fultz, or Bamba are your trade pieces for this supposed talent Orlando is missing. You are contradictory in your assertions and it doesn’t even make sense at this point.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#106 » by ezzzp » Fri May 31, 2019 10:43 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
None of what I said is out of the realm of possibility. Just because I don’t think AG and Isaac won’t be Kawhi or Giannis level players doesn’t mean I don’t believe in them to be contributors. That’s the disconnect you fail to grasp.

We are talking about comparing them to top 5-10 players that they aren’t and won’t be. Those are the players Orlando needs to acquire, by any means possible, to build moving forward. This is the difference we have in roster building. You find your special elite talent first, then you build around them through Free agency, the draft, and trades. You don’t hold your cards with mediocre to fringe allstar talent for multiple years expecting things to change with an inherited roster.

Let me get this straight, you are critical of my “valuing” the youth on this roster, but you also think the “primary vehicle” for Orlando’s talent acquisition moving forward will be trades. Who then? AG, Isaac, Fultz, or Bamba are your trade pieces for this supposed talent Orlando is missing? You are contradictory in your assertions/ accusations and it doesn’t even make sense.


What you are ignoring is that contributors can be consolidated into Kahwi/Giannis level players...that's how Toronto got Kawhi, Houston got Harden, OKC got Paul George, etc etc etc. Player development is entirely interwoven with building trade asset value.

Maintaining a competitive roster doesn't just improve asset values and improve player development. It also happens to improve the appeal of the franchise for player retention.

Do you think Paul George stays in OKC if they are a losing team with Westbrook? Having two #1 picks in KAT and Wiggins didn't keep Butler in MIN. He pushed his way out Minnesota because he knew that he was the one keeping it afloat, and the second he left - that team nosedived right back to the lottery - and that's with a "centerpiece" there.

Having a track record of keeping a consistent winning context with quality FO and infrastructure dedicated to that goal every year is fundamental for player retention and acquisition. Even then, player movement is unstoppable now.

You don't need to get anything straight, you just need to pay attention to the NBA player movement landscape and how it has dramatically sped up. Not just at the top, but all the way to the bottom tier guys.

Contract length, player draft age, CBA, the massive rise in cap, endorsements, etc...all have impacted that change in player movement and its not going away anytime soon. If you think that this core will be together in 2-4 years, you aren't paying attention to what the NBA is now.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#107 » by Skin » Sat Jun 1, 2019 12:14 am

ezzzp wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:Bucks got extremely lucky that Giannis worked out. If he hadn't worked out and he's another Thon Maker they're a nowhere near as good as they are. I'm not sure hitting gold like that is something that can really be replicated in the mid round draft picks.

Toronto landed Kawhi because he sat out even though he was medically cleared and then said he would sit out his final year if he didn't get traded. San Antonio had no choice but to trade him and Pop wasn't about to trade him inside the Western Conference. No one could've seen the Lakers implode like this which is hurting the Kawhi to LA hype. That LA hype caused a ton of teams to pull out as he was seen as a 1 year rental. Easier for Toronto to make that trade knowing they were a playoff team before and were about to get 1 step closer to Finals vs staying status quo.

The idea that the Magic could re sign Vuc and TRoss and in 2/3 years be able to flip them for solid value really hinges around the hope that this season wasn't a fluke and even with our easiest schedule post all star break we are a top 8 team in the East. I'm not so sure that will be the case given what could happen in Atlanta, NY & Detroit all teams who could get much better in FA and Detroit with Blake Griff getting healthy again.



Luck and smart player development go hand in hand. Do the best player development franchises like the Spurs, Utah, Denver etc just keep getting lucky?

They have a methodology and philosophy that continuously keep finding and developing quality to elite players. Luck is always a part of it, but having the right infrastructure and philosophy in place matters just as much.

Vucevic and Ross 2-3 years down the road are better assets than not having the asset. Regardless of Vuc/Ross, cap space will not be available in 2-3 year because of the stacked rookie contracts the Magic have. The Magic will have to preserve any little cap room they have in order to re-sign the young core at $ it will cost if they blossom into what we hope they will. If they don't, then the problem won't be Vuc/Ross as assets, it will be that the core failed to develop.

The trade market is always a unique situation, what isn't is that there is consistently a situation where players want out etc. The quality franchises always build up their asset cache with diverse contracts and picks, plus they maintain their value by remaining competitive. This allows them to pounce when opportunity arises AND it improves their ability to retain that player when the moment comes.

Can you expound on this? Why are you calling them trade assets in 2-3 years?

Is that the time frame of usefulness that you think they would have here?
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#108 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 1, 2019 12:47 am

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
None of what I said is out of the realm of possibility. Just because I don’t think AG and Isaac won’t be Kawhi or Giannis level players doesn’t mean I don’t believe in them to be contributors. That’s the disconnect you fail to grasp.

We are talking about comparing them to top 5-10 players that they aren’t and won’t be. Those are the players Orlando needs to acquire, by any means possible, to build moving forward. This is the difference we have in roster building. You find your special elite talent first, then you build around them through Free agency, the draft, and trades. You don’t hold your cards with mediocre to fringe allstar talent for multiple years expecting things to change with an inherited roster.

Let me get this straight, you are critical of my “valuing” the youth on this roster, but you also think the “primary vehicle” for Orlando’s talent acquisition moving forward will be trades. Who then? AG, Isaac, Fultz, or Bamba are your trade pieces for this supposed talent Orlando is missing? You are contradictory in your assertions/ accusations and it doesn’t even make sense.


ezzzp wrote:What you are ignoring is that contributors can be consolidated into Kahwi/Giannis level players...that's how Toronto got Kawhi, Houston got Harden, OKC got Paul George, etc etc etc. Player development is entirely interwoven with building trade asset value.


Toronto “got Kawhi” because of his circumstance and moving a player of lesser value in a gamble situation. Houston traded for a player that should have 100% been retained and wasn’t. George same as Toronto with Oladipo. None of those situations have anything to do with “interwoven” winning, and actually have more to do with their previous organizations not meeting the demands of the players in a variety of contexts. Nobody is saying that being able to acquire these players isn’t circumstantial, but Orlando has to make their own luck in their situation.

ezzzp wrote:Maintaining a competitive roster doesn't just improve asset values and improve player development. It also happens to improve the appeal of the franchise for player retention.


This is like saying Devin Booker or Anthony Davis don’t have massive value because they play for losing organizations. They both have more value than anyone on Orlando’s “playoff” roster. Does it help? A little, but it’s circumstantial and entirely situational. You can hide mediocre players on well built rosters. That doesn’t mean pure talent won’t be regarded as such being on a bad team. Orlando doesn’t have these players. You dont become a “winning situation” without elite talent, so that’s step one. Not the other way around. Otherwise we wouldn’t even be having this discussion regarding the Magic.

ezzzp wrote:Do you think Paul George stays in OKC if they are a losing team with Westbrook? Having two #1 picks in KAT and Wiggins didn't keep Butler in MIN. He pushed his way out Minnesota because he knew that he was the one keeping it afloat, and the second he left - that team nosedived right back to the lottery - and that's with a "centerpiece" there.


No, he doesn’t. That’s the point. They have their transcendent talent in Westbrook that keeps Paul George there. Minnesota is simply a terribly built roster that overpaid a mediocre Wiggins and runs an offense through KAT with his own deficiencies. That’s not to say they haven’t tried in their window. These situations haven’t presented themselves to Orlando and won’t present themselves until they acquire elite level talent. That’s the point.

ezzzp wrote:Contract length, player draft age, CBA, the massive rise in cap, endorsements, etc...all have impacted that change in player movement and its not going away anytime soon. If you think that this core will be together in 2-4 years, you aren't paying attention to what the NBA is now.


Player movement is inevitable. I don’t think this core will be together 2-4 years from now, but I also didn’t expect Vuc to be on the roster for nearly a decade facilitating a stagnant ineffective offense with no legitimate guard prospects. Then again, you are the one vying that we resign more of Hennigan’s acquisitions.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#109 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 1, 2019 2:13 am

Skin wrote:Can you expound on this? Why are you calling them trade assets in 2-3 years?

Is that the time frame of usefulness that you think they would have here?


Frame of usefulness? No.

It is the window for when the Magic should be in full consolidation mode, if they haven't already done so. It is the window when Fultz and Isaac will need extensions or hit RFA. It is also the window when Gordon hits free agency.

In other words it is the window when the Magic will have to decide on most of their key assets. That means trade decisions. Two of those assets will be on rookie scale contracts - which are very difficult to match and normally need to be packaged with other players for a transaction to work.

FYI, Vucevic will be 30 in year two, 31 in year three. Very much still in age where high production is common. Ross is younger than him.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#110 » by Bensational » Sat Jun 1, 2019 2:36 am

MagicMatic wrote:None of what I said is out of the realm of possibility. Just because I don’t think AG and Isaac won’t be Kawhi or Giannis level players doesn’t mean I don’t believe in them to be solid contributors.

We are talking about comparing them to top 5-10 players that they aren’t and won’t be. Those are the players Orlando needs to acquire, by any means possible, to build moving forward. This is the difference we have in roster building. You find your special elite talent first, then you build around them through Free agency, the draft, and trades. You don’t hold your cards with mediocre to fringe allstar talent for multiple years expecting things to change with an inherited roster from a previously failed management.


I think Toronto is an example of not needing a top 5-10 player in place first, to be in a position to add one later and contend. Neither of DeRozan and Lowry were top 5-10 players, but Toronto developed them to maximum value and were able to flip one for a top 5 player.

On the flip side, that is just one team. GSW, Milwaukee, Denver, Portland, Philly all drafted their cornerpiece/s. Houston traded for theirs without giving up a top 5-10 player. Boston are a mix of both, with their best veterans coming via trades and FA, and their best youth coming via the draft.

Both paths are viable. A draft rebuild is a 2-3 year commitment to bottom out, add a piece or two, and try to become competitive enough - but that's just as much of a gamble as looking for opportunitistic trades.

Last season it was Kawhi, Butler, Harris, Gasol who all became available. This season it could be Davis, Beal, Conley and others. It's safe to say that players will continue to become disgruntled in the future, and we will have more chances to make a run at them.

But in order to do that we need to maximise the talent we've got. Gordon, Isaac, Bamba and Fultz all need to become the best they can be. If we retain Vuc, he needs to remain at a high level. Fournier needs to improve. They don't need to become top 5-10 players, but we need 2-3 of them to become 20ppg level players on a winning team, or at least elite in some regards, in order to have a shot at a Kawhi-like player in the future. And the rest need to be good enough to support that player once we land them, to make us maximise that window the same way Toronto has.

That brings us back to having a firmer grasp of what we have sooner, before having to commit large salaries to them and hope they play into the value of that contract and become coveted assets in the future.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#111 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 1, 2019 3:29 am

MagicMatic wrote: Toronto “got Kawhi” because of his circumstance and moving a player of lesser value in a gamble situation. Houston traded for a player that should have 100% been retained and wasn’t. George same as Toronto with Oladipo. None of those situations have anything to do with “interwoven” winning, and actually have more to do with their previous organizations not meeting the demands of the players in a variety of contexts. Nobody is saying that being able to acquire these players isn’t circumstantial, but Orlando has to make their own luck in their situation.


No Toronto got Kawhi because they had the right assets. That took accumulation, development and maintenance of assets in preparation for that very opportunity. All done in a winning context. Same with Houston and Harden, same with George and OKC.

Those franchises prepared for that opportunity. Player movement is a consistent event that they prepared for.

MagicMatic wrote: This is like saying Devin Booker or Anthony Davis don’t have massive value because they play for losing organizations. They both have more value than anyone on Orlando’s “playoff” roster. Does it help? A little, but it’s circumstantial and entirely situational. You can hide mediocre players on well built rosters. That doesn’t mean pure talent won’t be regarded as such being on a bad team. Orlando doesn’t have these players. You dont become a “winning situation” without elite talent, so that’s step one. Not the other way around. Otherwise we wouldn’t even be having this discussion regarding the Magic.


That is NOT what that says at all.

Maintaining a competitive roster improves asset values and improves player development of ALL your players.

Plus are you seriously saying that if Devin Booker and AD were putting up the numbers they do but on a playoff team that wouldn't increase their value and reputation around the league? Winning matters.

A winning context is not defined by only having elite talent. Elite talent is acquired in many ways, and its often not even visible until it suddenly is. There is also a ton of "elite talent" in losing context.

The one thing that is gospel for the best franchises is that having a winning context IS the best way to develop it, to maximize it and to retain it.

MagicMatic wrote: No, he doesn’t. That’s the point. They have their transcendent talent in Westbrook that keeps Paul George there. Minnesota is simply a terribly built roster that overpaid a mediocre Wiggins and runs an offense through KAT with his own deficiencies. That’s not to say they haven’t tried in their window. These situations haven’t presented themselves to Orlando and won’t present themselves until they acquire elite level talent. That’s the point.


No that isn't the point. If OKC with Westbrook were a lottery team, there is no way PG stays. There are ton of examples of great players on losing teams. Minnesota is an example of that. You can make excuses as to why that is, but that doesn't change the facts.

The point is that you can acquire that talent via trade, free agency and draft/develop. A winning context just gives you the best access to all three levers PLUS it is the most proven method of maximizing the time those players are on the team AND it also the best way to retaining that talent.

MagicMatic wrote:Player movement is inevitable. I don’t think this core will be together 2-4 years from now, but I also didn’t expect Vuc to be on the roster for nearly a decade facilitating a stagnant ineffective offense with no legitimate guard prospects. Then again, you are the one vying that we resign more of Hennigan’s acquisitions.


Saying you didn't expect the Magic to want to sign their All Star C because he doesn't fit your fantasy of an all <23 year old team is pretty pointless.

FYI, Vuc that was one of the best offensive players in the NBA this year and top 10 in nearly every advanced metric? AND he led the Magic to the playoffs in the first year he actually had a competent coach who knew how to utilize a skilled C. Its funny how you devalue him and then keep making statements about how teams are going to max him. Which one is it?

...and guess what Aaron Gordon is a Hennigan's acquisition. The draft picks that produced Isaac and Iwundu are a Hennigan byproduct. The draft pick used to acquire Fultz was a Hennigan asset.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#112 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 1, 2019 6:47 am

ezzzp wrote:
MagicMatic wrote: Toronto “got Kawhi” because of his circumstance and moving a player of lesser value in a gamble situation. Houston traded for a player that should have 100% been retained and wasn’t. George same as Toronto with Oladipo. None of those situations have anything to do with “interwoven” winning, and actually have more to do with their previous organizations not meeting the demands of the players in a variety of contexts. Nobody is saying that being able to acquire these players isn’t circumstantial, but Orlando has to make their own luck in their situation.


ezzzp wrote:No Toronto got Kawhi because they had the right assets. That took accumulation, development and maintenance of assets in preparation for that very opportunity. All done in a winning context. Same with Houston and Harden, same with George and OKC.

Those franchises prepared for that opportunity. Player movement is a consistent event that they prepared for.


What? Toronto was the highest bidder by offering Derozen (who isn’t a scrub) for a player ultimately choosing his destination. They gave away a #9 draft pick, Poeltl, and essentially the last pick in the draft for a top 5 player in the league. That’s not “maintenance of asset accumulation” that’s robbery because of a hostage situation. Lol. You can spin any situation you want, but the assets traded are always going to be worse than the assets they receive in those situations you listed.

MagicMatic wrote: This is like saying Devin Booker or Anthony Davis don’t have massive value because they play for losing organizations. They both have more value than anyone on Orlando’s “playoff” roster. Does it help? A little, but it’s circumstantial and entirely situational. You can hide mediocre players on well built rosters. That doesn’t mean pure talent won’t be regarded as such being on a bad team. Orlando doesn’t have these players. You dont become a “winning situation” without elite talent, so that’s step one. Not the other way around. Otherwise we wouldn’t even be having this discussion regarding the Magic.


ezzzp wrote:That is NOT what that says at all.

Maintaining a competitive roster improves asset values and improves player development of ALL your players.

Plus are you seriously saying that if Devin Booker and AD were putting up the numbers they do but on a playoff team that wouldn't increase their value and reputation around the league? Winning matters.

A winning context is not defined by only having elite talent. Elite talent is acquired in many ways, and its often not even visible until it suddenly is. There is also a ton of "elite talent" in losing context.

The one thing that is gospel for the best franchises is that having a winning context IS the best way to develop it, to maximize it and to retain it.


Yeah those franchises all have foundational players to build around. That’s the point you continue to miss. Winning only happens when you have the correct team capable and the elite players to carry said team. Not the carriage before the horse. There isn’t a “ton” of elite talent in losing context. There are few examples of elite players in bad situations. That’s the exception and not the standard.

MagicMatic wrote: No, he doesn’t. That’s the point. They have their transcendent talent in Westbrook that keeps Paul George there. Minnesota is simply a terribly built roster that overpaid a mediocre Wiggins and runs an offense through KAT with his own deficiencies. That’s not to say they haven’t tried in their window. These situations haven’t presented themselves to Orlando and won’t present themselves until they acquire elite level talent. That’s the point.


ezzzp wrote:No that isn't the point. If OKC with Westbrook were a lottery team, there is no way PG stays. There are ton of examples of great players on losing teams. Minnesota is an example of that. You can make excuses as to why that is, but that doesn't change the facts.

The point is that you can acquire that talent via trade, free agency and draft/develop. A winning context just gives you the best access to all three levers PLUS it is the most proven method of maximizing the time those players are on the team AND it also the best way to retaining that talent.


Lol OKC wouldn’t be a lottery team with Westbrook sans PG in your hypothetical scenario.They finished 6th in the western conference without him two years ago...oops. Hell, OKC and Portland could make the ECF easily. I don’t think KAT or Wiggins are those kinds of players (like Butler figured out), so that example is irrelevant. You can keep saying your mantra, and I’ll keep saying - overwhelming talent dominates the nba landscape every season and every true contender has elite talent. If you don’t believe that you are delusional.

MagicMatic wrote:Player movement is inevitable. I don’t think this core will be together 2-4 years from now, but I also didn’t expect Vuc to be on the roster for nearly a decade facilitating a stagnant ineffective offense with no legitimate guard prospects. Then again, you are the one vying that we resign more of Hennigan’s acquisitions.


ezzzp wrote:Saying you didn't expect the Magic to want to sign their All Star C because he doesn't fit your fantasy of an all <23 year old team is pretty pointless.

FYI, Vuc that was one of the best offensive players in the NBA this year and top 10 in nearly every advanced metric? AND he led the Magic to the playoffs in the first year he actually had a competent coach who knew how to utilize a skilled C. Its funny how you devalue him and then keep making statements about how teams are going to max him. Which one is it?

...and guess what Aaron Gordon is a Hennigan's acquisition. The draft picks that produced Isaac and Iwundu are a Hennigan byproduct. The draft pick used to acquire Fultz was a Hennigan asset.


No I thought this management would have the balls to build their own team and not keep offering mediocre players contracts that have led them nowhere for nearly a decade.

LOL when did I say Vuc would get a max contract? Again your imagination. He doesn’t deserve anything over 20m because of the track record with Centers and the market. However, that doesn’t mean Orlando won’t also overpay him because they are sadly a Mickey Mouse owned franchise that would possibly settle for mediocrity, in your ideal scenario, by trading away any hope Orlando has for 30 year old point guards that could care less to play in Orlando for their remaining years. Like I’ve said before, Vuc put up numbers as the main option for a team with no options. That’s the bottom line. Cry about it or don’t, it doesn’t really matter.

...No AG is a Hennigan asset that is the most likely candidate to be traded. Isaac and Iwundu and WeHam selections with their picks. Fultz was a WeHam move with a WeHam signing. Get it straight. Then again, this is coming from someone that thinks any team with a sub .500 record is “tanking” so I expect nothing less than spin.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#113 » by pepe1991 » Sat Jun 1, 2019 9:08 am

Magic Matic has linear way of thinking when it comes to NBA development.
In reality, in my opinion, NBA there is no linear development at all any more.

You can put on paper amazing 5 years plan how to bottom it out, build from draft and contend for title in 5th year.
In raelity you can just as easly: miss all draft picks, hit draft, yet botch FA with bad contracts, or even hit draft, hit FA yet players simply don't mash/like each other or flat out want to leave and you are nowhere.

Exsternal factors and always changing landscape of NBA made it impossible for team to just rely on one linear strategy to build a team.


Look how fast things changed in nba.
2015-16 nba season finished just 3 years ago.

Worst team in nba was Philly, winning 10 games. Within next 3 years they went from worst record, to playoffs, to second round of playoffs, to the point where now, despite having 2 allstars , they are in real danger to have 2 players that are great, but don't fit each other that well. Harris and Butler, can flat out walk out if they want to and Philly would, in that case be back at being first round exit team. That team has legit superstar and legit allstar , yet they are kind a nowhere.

Celtics
2015-16
48 wins with Thomas , Bardley, Crowder, Smart.
3 year slater Smart is only player on the roster left, they have incredible young talent in Tatum, yet if Irving leaves they are pretty much irrelevant despite having army of picks and lottery selected players.

Spurs
67 wins in 2015-16
Lose to OKC with Durant one year, lose to Leonard's injury second year, third year he is hurt and butthurt and gone.
From title contender to first round exit in 3 years.

Cavs 2015-16
Won title.
Year later a** whooped.
Year later Irving leaves due confrotation with Lebron.
Year later, Lebron leaves. They win 19 games

Bucks 3 years ago won 33 games. Jabari Parker, MCW, Monroe and OJ Mayo were big factors.

We talk about THREE years here.

You can on paper have the best plan for future ever, but in reality you control nothing. Everything can and will change so fast that if you can't adjust your plans you are never going to do anything.

When you work on open market only one thing is certain, that is nothing certain.
For not so related ,yet relted topic, i worked in tourism few years back, and we had massive indications that in middle Europe 2019 will be the best pre-summer season in years. There is no Olympics, no World cup, no Euro, no basketball world cup, eurobasket, literally NOTHING . Economic crises is years behind us, all potential guests had enough time to recover their wallets from World cup. That's always massive indicator , along with pre-ordered booking.
Today is June 1st. Pre-season sucks. Do you know why ? Because it's f*** king freezing for this time of a year, rain simply can't stop for like last 20 days, huge amount of pre-booking is cancelled and my friend, who is hotel menager called me yesterday literally saying " bro i have no clue what to offer to this people, they come here to swim, they can jump in puddles only".
Yes ,there are other entertainment content like indoor pools, but this people didn't pay $200-400 a night per person to bath in indoor pool and to sit at hotel room all day and watch TV. And most of ent. content, because it's summer oriented hotel chain- is outside ( aquapark, mini golf, beach bars, jetskeys... ) But you can't do almost any of that beacuse it's 18 C , last year sea was 22 C and there was like 32C outside.

What to say ? Qoute andre 3000 "You can plan a pretty picnic, But you can't predict the weather," ? That's life in nutshell.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#114 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Sat Jun 1, 2019 11:12 am

Read on Twitter


Would you look at that. A GM with balls makes a risky trade and it’s paying off.
LONG LENGTHY ATHLETIC... CAN’T SHOOT
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#115 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 1, 2019 2:02 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Magic Matic has linear way of thinking when it comes to NBA development.
In reality, in my opinion, NBA there is no linear development at all any more.


Please enlighten me Pepe. What is my linear way of thinking?

Being in the middle of the pack in the nba is only acceptable if you are being carried by, or relying upon, young players with tremendous upside. If not, the ceiling is too low and you are missing either draft talent or Free agency draw. AG and JI are solid players that can contribute. However, they haven’t proven to be “carrying” the the team for the first statement to hold water. Especially if Vuc and Ross were the primary options offensively this season in contract years. There hasn’t been a window for this team to start pushing their chips in, and that’s because we haven’t had the chips to do it.

That’s not a linear way of thinking. In so many words it just means “don’t be a treadmill team”. That still opens up a lot of possibilities for development and team building. It’s not some revolutionary idea.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#116 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 1, 2019 3:55 pm

Bensational wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:None of what I said is out of the realm of possibility. Just because I don’t think AG and Isaac won’t be Kawhi or Giannis level players doesn’t mean I don’t believe in them to be solid contributors.

We are talking about comparing them to top 5-10 players that they aren’t and won’t be. Those are the players Orlando needs to acquire, by any means possible, to build moving forward. This is the difference we have in roster building. You find your special elite talent first, then you build around them through Free agency, the draft, and trades. You don’t hold your cards with mediocre to fringe allstar talent for multiple years expecting things to change with an inherited roster from a previously failed management.


I think Toronto is an example of not needing a top 5-10 player in place first, to be in a position to add one later and contend. Neither of DeRozan and Lowry were top 5-10 players, but Toronto developed them to maximum value and were able to flip one for a top 5 player.

On the flip side, that is just one team. GSW, Milwaukee, Denver, Portland, Philly all drafted their cornerpiece/s. Houston traded for theirs without giving up a top 5-10 player. Boston are a mix of both, with their best veterans coming via trades and FA, and their best youth coming via the draft.

Both paths are viable. A draft rebuild is a 2-3 year commitment to bottom out, add a piece or two, and try to become competitive enough - but that's just as much of a gamble as looking for opportunitistic trades.

Last season it was Kawhi, Butler, Harris, Gasol who all became available. This season it could be Davis, Beal, Conley and others. It's safe to say that players will continue to become disgruntled in the future, and we will have more chances to make a run at them.

But in order to do that we need to maximise the talent we've got. Gordon, Isaac, Bamba and Fultz all need to become the best they can be. If we retain Vuc, he needs to remain at a high level. Fournier needs to improve. They don't need to become top 5-10 players, but we need 2-3 of them to become 20ppg level players on a winning team, or at least elite in some regards, in order to have a shot at a Kawhi-like player in the future. And the rest need to be good enough to support that player once we land them, to make us maximise that window the same way Toronto has.

That brings us back to having a firmer grasp of what we have sooner, before having to commit large salaries to them and hope they play into the value of that contract and become coveted assets in the future.


The bolded portion is what I disagree with. Vuc and Fournier have been in Orlando for many seasons and have failed to draw free agents to Orlando at the prospect of playing in this “system”. Fultz, Bamba, or JI having breakout seasons would be the primary reason for players to take notice. Why? Because they are already on rookie scale to decently sized deals that offer flexibility. I also don’t entirely agree that doubling down on a system reliant on Vuc’s production offensively is going to give Orlando a “firmer grip” on the “supporting cast” of young talent focused on being role players. A team like Dallas is intriguing to free agents not because they were competitive last season (which they weren’t), but because they have transcendent talent in Doncic drafted last season, on a rookie scale deal, and is a commodity they know will be in Dallas for a while. A player like Porzingis knows this is a good situation to reinvest in.

Disgruntled stars always list places that have established star talent and/or large markets. Orlando doesn’t fall into either of those categories for that to be a bankable option. Having the pieces to trade for one of these players, on an expiring deal, is the first obstacle and a gamble. Convincing them to stay on a team not of their choosing is another story entirely.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#117 » by pepe1991 » Sat Jun 1, 2019 4:33 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Magic Matic has linear way of thinking when it comes to NBA development.
In reality, in my opinion, NBA there is no linear development at all any more.


Please enlighten me Pepe. What is my linear way of thinking?

Being in the middle of the pack in the nba is only acceptable if you are being carried by, or relying upon, young players with tremendous upside. If not, the ceiling is too low and you are missing either draft talent or Free agency draw. AG and JI are solid players that can contribute. However, they haven’t proven to be “carrying” the the team for the first statement to hold water. Especially if Vuc and Ross were the primary options offensively this season in contract years. There hasn’t been a window for this team to start pushing their chips in, and that’s because we haven’t had the chips to do it.

That’s not a linear way of thinking. In so many words it just means “don’t be a treadmill team”. That still opens up a lot of possibilities for development and team building. It’s not some revolutionary idea.



it is.

You said it lot of times ( and i can find it and qoute you ) that you are fine with return to lottery just to build in right way. That's linear way of thinking.

Every team is in middle of nowhere until it becomes good. And if anything, we learned that most teams had to mortgage future in order to contend.
In your mind, at least what i can figure from your posts, teams like Raptors, who were in ECF in 2016, than got swept TWICE in a row in 2017 and 2018 IN SECOND ROUD, are theadmill teams and they should have enter their rebuilding around 2017. Because, according to your logic, they were wasting time. Not too good to win it all. Not too bad to be in lottery. That's what you preach for a year now.
By same logic Spurs blew it , they should have blow whole roster up in 2013, after they failed to win it all.


You also want no part of Ross or Vučević because, according to you they don't fit timeline. Yet, you also claim that Gordon, Isaac and Bamba are not good enough to win it all, so what is your timeline ? Imaginary situation where Magic will be back in lottery in 2020 and find Michael Jordan ?
Not to mention that Vučević and Ross are "old" according to you, yet younger or about same age as Curry, Durant, Harden, Klay, Cousins , Lebron, Leonard, Lowry, Gasol, Lillard, Westbrook, Goerge...

So what i get from you, is that you want your superstar first. Yet you never even once mentioned how you want to get him. You don't really propose trade, you don't really propose FA, you always claim that XY is unrealistic ( and most of time it's true ) . So what should anybody who reads from your figure than that you want to tank to oblivion until you find your guy ? Nevermind fact that odds of winning lottery AND getting player you want are abysmal but whatever.

. There hasn’t been a window for this team to start pushing their chips in, and that’s because we haven’t had the chips to do it.

Window never exists until you open it. Raptors just proved it. You will never ever in sports or in life in general have perfect situation. You simply have to take risk. And in nba it's probably easiser than in any other sport pay no high price of making terrible mistake. Look at Nets. They made biggest fuc***y of all time with draft picks ,yet missed 3 freaking years of playoffs. And look at them now, back in FA as potentially big fish.

In whole east only Knicks are taem who didn't make it to playoffs for longer than 3 years. 3 years is pretty much optimal amount of time your rebuild can last. Everything after that leads to overlapping of rookie scale contract players who become more expensive.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#118 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 1, 2019 5:11 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Magic Matic has linear way of thinking when it comes to NBA development.
In reality, in my opinion, NBA there is no linear development at all any more.


Please enlighten me Pepe. What is my linear way of thinking?

Being in the middle of the pack in the nba is only acceptable if you are being carried by, or relying upon, young players with tremendous upside. If not, the ceiling is too low and you are missing either draft talent or Free agency draw. AG and JI are solid players that can contribute. However, they haven’t proven to be “carrying” the the team for the first statement to hold water. Especially if Vuc and Ross were the primary options offensively this season in contract years. There hasn’t been a window for this team to start pushing their chips in, and that’s because we haven’t had the chips to do it.

That’s not a linear way of thinking. In so many words it just means “don’t be a treadmill team”. That still opens up a lot of possibilities for development and team building. It’s not some revolutionary idea.



it is.

pepe1991 wrote:You said it lot of times ( and i can find it and qoute you ) that you are fine with return to lottery just to build in right way. That's linear way of thinking.


The lottery and trades are the two ways Orlando finds and adds elite talent in its current position. Those are two primary ways. One of them doesn’t require giving up assets. Doesn’t sound linear to me.

pepe1991 wrote:Every team is in middle of nowhere until it becomes good. And if anything, we learned that most teams had to mortgage future in order to contend.
In your mind, at least what i can figure from your posts, teams like Raptors, who were in ECF in 2016, than got swept TWICE in a row in 2017 and 2018 IN SECOND ROUD, are theadmill teams and they should have enter their rebuilding around 2017. Because, according to your logic, they were wasting time. Not too good to win it all. Not too bad to be in lottery. That's what you preach for a year now.
By same logic Spurs blew it , they should have blow whole roster up in 2013, after they failed to win it all.


No. Getting past the first and second round of the playoffs isn’t what I consider a failure. Managing to do it
with good watchable basketball makes it even better and worthwhile. Would it have been frustrating to be the Raptors in previous seasons? Yeah, but they had the assets to make those changes, primarily the allstar they drafted, and they are paying off.



pepe1991 wrote:You also want no part of Ross or Vučević because, according to you they don't fit timeline. Yet, you also claim that Gordon, Isaac and Bamba are not good enough to win it all, so what is your timeline ? Imaginary situation where Magic will be back in lottery in 2020 and find Michael Jordan ?
Not to mention that Vučević and Ross are "old" according to you, yet younger or about same age as Curry, Durant, Harden, Klay, Cousins , Lebron, Leonard, Lowry, Gasol, Lillard, Westbrook, Goerge...


What? I want no part in Vuc not because he’s “old” but because he inhibits Orlando into playing an archaic style of basketball that’s ultimately inefficient with his supporting cast. He’s 28 and had his (barely) first allstar season and is expecting big money. Where’s the ceiling? It’s not too high. That’s baffling to you that people would have qualms?

pepe1991 wrote:So what i get from you, is that you want your superstar first. Yet you never even once mentioned how you want to get him. You don't really propose trade, you don't really propose FA, you always claim that XY is unrealistic ( and most of time it's true ) . So what should anybody who reads from your figure than that you want to tank to oblivion until you find your guy ? Nevermind fact that odds of winning lottery AND getting player you want are abysmal but whatever.


Trade or draft. Those are the options. It always has been and always will be until players take notice that Orlando will be good for the foreseeable future, have room to grow, and aren't being led be mediocre to fringe allstar talent. I never said anything about needing to tank to get this done. Its just constantly interpreted that way because people can’t seem to separate the idea of a team from being poorly built with that of losing on purpose. Do you think if Vuc walked this team wouldn’t be abysmal for never addressing the lack of scoring options? It would be, but again, I fall into the category of people that would rather they attempt to acquire elite talent for 2-3 years, rather than they settle on a boring .500 product for another 5.

. There hasn’t been a window for this team to start pushing their chips in, and that’s because we haven’t had the chips to do it.

Window never exists until you open it. Raptors just proved it. You will never ever in sports or in life in general have perfect situation. You simply have to take risk. And in nba it's probably easiser than in any other sport pay no high price of making terrible mistake. Look at Nets. They made biggest fuc***y of all time with draft picks ,yet missed 3 freaking years of playoffs. And look at them now, back in FA as potentially big fish.

In whole east only Knicks are taem who didn't make it to playoffs for longer than 3 years. 3 years is pretty much optimal amount of time your rebuild can last. Everything after that leads to overlapping of rookie scale contract players who become more expensive.


The Raptors window was open when DeRozen became an allstar at 24 in 2013-14 and subsequently Lowry in 14-15. That’s lasted them until now. They are in the finals, by trading the player that opened that window for them in the first place for a top 3-5 player currently. I’m arguing we need that player(s) to open that window if they aren’t currently on this roster. That happens through trades or the draft and that isn’t “thinking linearly”.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#119 » by ezzzp » Sat Jun 1, 2019 7:04 pm

MagicMatic wrote: No I thought this management would have the balls to build their own team and not keep offering mediocre players contracts that have led them nowhere for nearly a decade.

LOL when did I say Vuc would get a max contract? Again your imagination. He doesn’t deserve anything over 20m because of the track record with Centers and the market. However, that doesn’t mean Orlando won’t also overpay him because they are sadly a Mickey Mouse owned franchise that would possibly settle for mediocrity, in your ideal scenario, by trading away any hope Orlando has for 30 year old point guards that could care less to play in Orlando for their remaining years. Like I’ve said before, Vuc put up numbers as the main option for a team with no options. That’s the bottom line. Cry about it or don’t, it doesn’t really matter.

...No AG is a Hennigan asset that is the most likely candidate to be traded. Isaac and Iwundu and WeHam selections with their picks. Fultz was a WeHam move with a WeHam signing. Get it straight. Then again, this is coming from someone that thinks any team with a sub .500 record is “tanking” so I expect nothing less than spin.


Inexperienced reckless decision making is what spiraled the Magic into a 7 year rebuild. This FO isn't dumb and impulsive, they are methodical, proven and experienced.

The only player from the prior regime that WelHam have signed so far is Aaron Gordon. Unlike you, I am glad they retained Gordon and think he is a valuable asset moving forward.

FYI, Vuc putting up numbers on a playoff team with no options only reinforces how impressive he was. People who understand basketball know that makes every shot he took and every possession he had exponentially more difficult. Cry about it or don't. Then again this is coming from someone who is too scared to admit that what he wants is to tank.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#120 » by Skin » Sun Jun 2, 2019 12:55 am

ezzzp wrote:
Skin wrote:Can you expound on this? Why are you calling them trade assets in 2-3 years?

Is that the time frame of usefulness that you think they would have here?


Frame of usefulness? No.

It is the window for when the Magic should be in full consolidation mode, if they haven't already done so. It is the window when Fultz and Isaac will need extensions or hit RFA. It is also the window when Gordon hits free agency.

In other words it is the window when the Magic will have to decide on most of their key assets. That means trade decisions. Two of those assets will be on rookie scale contracts - which are very difficult to match and normally need to be packaged with other players for a transaction to work.

FYI, Vucevic will be 30 in year two, 31 in year three. Very much still in age where high production is common. Ross is younger than him.

But what happens to them in your ideal scenario in 2 years? You want to shop them around?

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