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GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion

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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#21 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Thu May 9, 2019 7:18 pm

5 Mistakes this FO has made

Mistake #1 Year 1 should not have been a sit and evaluate year... for the most part we knew who we were. They should've been able to be clued in or seen from previous year the mess.
Mistake #2 was trading away a mid/late 1st pick because of too much youth and draft flattening out garbage they spewed.
Mistake #3 was trading EP for a bag of cheetos, this kinda goes with Mistake #1.
Mistake #4 not TRULY tanking and missing out on better odds for top player in 2017 draft. Isaac is a nice player but damn Fox, Tatum would've been nice as well. This could be viewed as a petty mistake but better odds at a top 3 pick would've been nice.
Mistake 5- Drafting Bamba and keeping Vuc + now possibly having to let him walk or over pay to keep him in Orlando. I included it because either way it seems like a loss of an asset depending on how this plays out. We either didn't need to take Bamba or Vuc should've been moved.
LONG LENGTHY ATHLETIC... CAN’T SHOOT
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#22 » by zaymon » Thu May 9, 2019 7:36 pm

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:5 Mistakes this FO has made

Mistake #1 Year 1 should not have been a sit and evaluate year... for the most part we knew who we were. They should've been able to be clued in or seen from previous year the mess.
Mistake #2 was trading away a mid/late 1st pick because of too much youth and draft flattening out garbage they spewed.
Mistake #3 was trading EP for a bag of cheetos, this kinda goes with Mistake #1.
Mistake #4 not TRULY tanking and missing out on better odds for top player in 2017 draft. Isaac is a nice player but damn Fox, Tatum would've been nice as well. This could be viewed as a petty mistake but better odds at a top 3 pick would've been nice.
Mistake 5- Drafting Bamba and keeping Vuc + now possibly having to let him walk or over pay to keep him in Orlando. I included it because either way it seems like a loss of an asset depending on how this plays out. We either didn't need to take Bamba or Vuc should've been moved.

1- they changed most of the front office, they build development program, strength and conditioning, performance. What moves in retrospect do you advice ?
2- this pick gave us Fultz. I would rather risk with Fultz than have FKK.
3- what ? trading 2 picks for him was a mistake
4- You cant evaluate draft right now its too soon. Isaac has more potential than Fox and Tatum.
5- We drafted Bamba to NOT overpay Vucevic.
Bold Predictions:
1. Deandre Ayton biggest disappointment of 2018 draft.
2. Nick Nurse becomes Orlando Magic Head Coach. (15.04.2018)
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#23 » by NotACat » Thu May 9, 2019 7:51 pm

zaymon wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:5 Mistakes this FO has made

Mistake #1 Year 1 should not have been a sit and evaluate year... for the most part we knew who we were. They should've been able to be clued in or seen from previous year the mess.
Mistake #2 was trading away a mid/late 1st pick because of too much youth and draft flattening out garbage they spewed.
Mistake #3 was trading EP for a bag of cheetos, this kinda goes with Mistake #1.
Mistake #4 not TRULY tanking and missing out on better odds for top player in 2017 draft. Isaac is a nice player but damn Fox, Tatum would've been nice as well. This could be viewed as a petty mistake but better odds at a top 3 pick would've been nice.
Mistake 5- Drafting Bamba and keeping Vuc + now possibly having to let him walk or over pay to keep him in Orlando. I included it because either way it seems like a loss of an asset depending on how this plays out. We either didn't need to take Bamba or Vuc should've been moved.

1- they changed most of the front office, they build development program, strength and conditioning, performance. What moves in retrospect do you advice ?
2- this pick gave us Fultz. I would rather risk with Fultz than have FKK.
3- what ? trading 2 picks for him was a mistake
4- You cant evaluate draft right now its too soon. Isaac has more potential than Fox and Tatum.
5- We drafted Bamba to NOT overpay Vucevic.

1. That year also allowed us to move on from Vogel and graciously get Thanos
5. Bamba was also the best prospect available
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#24 » by yoyojw17 » Fri May 10, 2019 3:29 am

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:5 Mistakes this FO has made

Mistake #1 Year 1 should not have been a sit and evaluate year... for the most part we knew who we were. They should've been able to be clued in or seen from previous year the mess.
Mistake #2 was trading away a mid/late 1st pick because of too much youth and draft flattening out garbage they spewed.
Mistake #3 was trading EP for a bag of cheetos, this kinda goes with Mistake #1.
Mistake #4 not TRULY tanking and missing out on better odds for top player in 2017 draft. Isaac is a nice player but damn Fox, Tatum would've been nice as well. This could be viewed as a petty mistake but better odds at a top 3 pick would've been nice.
Mistake 5- Drafting Bamba and keeping Vuc + now possibly having to let him walk or over pay to keep him in Orlando. I included it because either way it seems like a loss of an asset depending on how this plays out. We either didn't need to take Bamba or Vuc should've been moved.

Hindsight
Hindsight
Hindsight
Ended up trading for one of them
Hindsight

Not trying to be an a$$.... but saying all of the things that DIDN'T work doesn't make after they haven't worked doesn't change the fact that it might have not been a viable or smart option at the time.

Not saying i don't wish some things did go differently but some things make sense.

1. You can't just come in and gut a team without seeing what they can do together under new leadership. Cliff brought many of these pieces together

2. Pick was used to help acquire our possible PG of the future

3. EP.... many people on this board were asking for less than cheetos.... at least cheetos are delicious... the same way that they are asking for fournier "get whatever you can" type trades.

4. See 2

5. Did you think Vuc was going to be an Allstar... i'm sure some didn't.... but he did. And that's fine. you sign him and then give bamba time to develop. We don't have to let him walk... he's a RFA.... he's ours unless he is priced out of our range ... and if so... we could move
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#25 » by DjPuffnStuff » Fri May 10, 2019 8:16 am

Vuc is a UFA.
yoyojw17 wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:5 Mistakes this FO has made

Mistake #1 Year 1 should not have been a sit and evaluate year... for the most part we knew who we were. They should've been able to be clued in or seen from previous year the mess.
Mistake #2 was trading away a mid/late 1st pick because of too much youth and draft flattening out garbage they spewed.
Mistake #3 was trading EP for a bag of cheetos, this kinda goes with Mistake #1.
Mistake #4 not TRULY tanking and missing out on better odds for top player in 2017 draft. Isaac is a nice player but damn Fox, Tatum would've been nice as well. This could be viewed as a petty mistake but better odds at a top 3 pick would've been nice.
Mistake 5- Drafting Bamba and keeping Vuc + now possibly having to let him walk or over pay to keep him in Orlando. I included it because either way it seems like a loss of an asset depending on how this plays out. We either didn't need to take Bamba or Vuc should've been moved.

Hindsight
Hindsight
Hindsight
Ended up trading for one of them
Hindsight

Not trying to be an a$$.... but saying all of the things that DIDN'T work doesn't make after they haven't worked doesn't change the fact that it might have not been a viable or smart option at the time.

Not saying i don't wish some things did go differently but some things make sense.

1. You can't just come in and gut a team without seeing what they can do together under new leadership. Cliff brought many of these pieces together

2. Pick was used to help acquire our possible PG of the future

3. EP.... many people on this board were asking for less than cheetos.... at least cheetos are delicious... the same way that they are asking for fournier "get whatever you can" type trades.

4. See 2

5. Did you think Vuc was going to be an Allstar... i'm sure some didn't.... but he did. And that's fine. you sign him and then give bamba time to develop. We don't have to let him walk... he's a RFA.... he's ours unless he is priced out of our range ... and if so... we could move


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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#26 » by Xatticus » Fri May 10, 2019 11:49 am

zaymon wrote:
NotACat wrote:To approach this we have to understand that we're the Orlando Magic and not some mecca like the Knicks or Lakers. Our approach needs to be like the Spurs, Nuggets, and Raptors. And we're also trying to establish a culture of winning.

To establish a culture of winning, that means committing to the players that put us in winning situations (re-signing TRoss and Vuc). We could give TRoss a Lou Williams type contract (3-years, $24M) and could maybe even offer a little less than that. I would love to bring Vuc back on a 3-year, declining $27M deal ($27M his first year, declining by 8% after that). Retain Iwundu for sure. I would prefer to keep Birch, but another team would likely pay him more and he'd be a 3rd-string C for us.

That brings our roster to essentially the same spot as this year. Our biggest issues was shot creation from the perimeter (hopefully addressed with Fultz) and our bench. If Fultz is legit, DJ as our backup PG is tremendous. DJ as our starter is passable for at least another half season to see what we have in Fultz and we can go from there, DJ deserves that.

As for our bench, our biggest gap is at the backup 4 spot and its messed up our rotations later in the game because Isaac or Gordon typically need more rest and we haven't been able to play them together as much as we want. Being able to get someone like Jabari Parker, Rudy Gay, Marvin Williams, or Taj Gibson with the rest of our MLE would be awesome for us. I would also like to give Isiah Briscoe a minimum contract to be our 3rd string PG if he's willing, or MCW.

Fultz-Fournier-AG-Isaac-Vuc
DJ-TRoss-Iwundu-Jabari/Rudy/Marvin-Bamba


That's without our 16th pick and we'd hopefully get someone like NAW, Herro, or Keldon Johnson. Or we could get our backup 4 from the draft with either Rui or PJ Washington.


There are many ways we can aproach PF minutes. We can do what you suggested (i would add Grant Williams in our first round range). With second round pick we can target Isaiah Roby, Luka Samanic, Jalen Mcdaniels, Eric Paschall, Aric Holman to name a few... or we can draft SF and rotate Gordon/Isaac more within the PF position (one playing only PF minutes and the other spliting between both forward spots: 33 + 15/18+ 30 free SF minutes ) . I think it depends how Clifford sees Isaac/ Gordon and on the matchups.


I'm glad someone else finally mentioned Roby; I've been reluctant to because I know I'm biased. I've watched him a lot. He is incredibly talented, but he is really rough around the edges. He has good size and he is really athletic, but he needs to clean up his fundamentals. He is a versatile defender and he has some offensive talent, but his foul rate is high and he is generally passive at the offensive end. He is a junior, but there is a lot of untapped potential there. I don't know how likely it is that he will realize that potential though. I'd liken him to DJ Wilson.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#27 » by yoyojw17 » Fri May 10, 2019 12:30 pm

DjPuffnStuff wrote:Vuc is a UFA.
yoyojw17 wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:5 Mistakes this FO has made

Mistake #1 Year 1 should not have been a sit and evaluate year... for the most part we knew who we were. They should've been able to be clued in or seen from previous year the mess.
Mistake #2 was trading away a mid/late 1st pick because of too much youth and draft flattening out garbage they spewed.
Mistake #3 was trading EP for a bag of cheetos, this kinda goes with Mistake #1.
Mistake #4 not TRULY tanking and missing out on better odds for top player in 2017 draft. Isaac is a nice player but damn Fox, Tatum would've been nice as well. This could be viewed as a petty mistake but better odds at a top 3 pick would've been nice.
Mistake 5- Drafting Bamba and keeping Vuc + now possibly having to let him walk or over pay to keep him in Orlando. I included it because either way it seems like a loss of an asset depending on how this plays out. We either didn't need to take Bamba or Vuc should've been moved.

Hindsight
Hindsight
Hindsight
Ended up trading for one of them
Hindsight

Not trying to be an a$$.... but saying all of the things that DIDN'T work doesn't make after they haven't worked doesn't change the fact that it might have not been a viable or smart option at the time.

Not saying i don't wish some things did go differently but some things make sense.

1. You can't just come in and gut a team without seeing what they can do together under new leadership. Cliff brought many of these pieces together

2. Pick was used to help acquire our possible PG of the future

3. EP.... many people on this board were asking for less than cheetos.... at least cheetos are delicious... the same way that they are asking for fournier "get whatever you can" type trades.

4. See 2

5. Did you think Vuc was going to be an Allstar... i'm sure some didn't.... but he did. And that's fine. you sign him and then give bamba time to develop. We don't have to let him walk... he's a RFA.... he's ours unless he is priced out of our range ... and if so... we could move


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Hahah... yeah... i keep forgetting. in my head he stays as long as everything is agreeable. might be wishful thinking.THANKS!!! :-) But still...

I expected him to bounce back after last season but not many would say that they expected an All Star selection this year.... so selecting Bamba with the knowledge the thought that vuc would just be 'ok' and preparing for the future by getting bigman that can play the part of the modern day big and still JUST BE BIG made dang sense. And how many threads have there been till now about wanting let vuc go for a pack of chicklets have there been. Now he has an unforeseen success.... so the team will adjust accordingly. Life has no definite paths and outcome in the moment.... things can and most likely will change... and if it does... you adjust.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#28 » by Xatticus » Fri May 10, 2019 12:35 pm

Bensational wrote:
Spoiler:
Interesting discussion. Timing of contracts towards a window of known contention is the key. Let's break this down further.

This isn't intended to be a road map for how to build a team, just a case study.

Warriors - they got lucky with a lot of things falling into place at the right time. Curry having injury issues which lead to him signing an incredibly below market value contract, coupled with the increase in the salary cap, allowed them to add Durant. But they'd managed to win one championship without him, and have a finals appearance, so let's focus on that.

Star Player
featured scorer, elite offense
Curry, secured through draft (#7 pick?)

Secondary Star
featured scorer, elite offense, solid defender
Klay, secured through draft (#7 pick?)

Star Role Player 1
Elite defense, above average offense
Iggy, signed via FA

Star Role Player 2
Elite defense and versatile offensive coordinator
Draymond, secured through draft (2nd round?)

Veteran Anchor
Bogut, secured via trade for Monta


2011-12
It all started with the shift in direction by trading Monta for Bogut. Curry was injured, they landed another high pick, and took Harrison Barnes, and in the 2nd round they take Draymond.

2012-13
Setting Curry and Klay loose, they made the 2nd round of the playoffs.

2013-14
After their competitive season, they had the space to sign Igoudala.

2014-15
They made big changes, firing Mark Jackson and bringing Steve Kerr in. Klay, Draymond and Barnes were all still on rookie scale contracts, but all starters. Bogut, Iggy, Curry and David Lee were the only players on salaries north of $10M. They win a championship.

2015-16
Klay and Dray get paid. They lose the finals.

2016-17
They have the freakish chance of expanded salary cap and cap space to sign Kevin Durant.

The rest is history.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________


Now, the take away from here for me is the age of the rookies they were drafting in the first place.

Curry - 21 year old junior
Klay - 21 year old junior
Draymond - 22 year old senior

Being older, these players were further along in their growth and development that they were able to offer more immediate impact whilst still on rookie scale contracts.

That's got me thinking about the other competitive teams that have had high impact players on RSC's.

Portland - McCollum was a 22 year old senior, and a 20ppg starter by the 3rd year of his RSC
Toronto - Siakam was a 22 year old sophomore, and presently a 17ppg scorer in 3rd year of his RSC
Milwaukee - Brogdon was a 24 year old senior, and presently a 15ppg scorer in 3rd year of his RSC
San Antonio - White was a 23 year old senior, presently the Spurs starting backcourt in 2nd year of his RSC. Forbes was a 23 year old senior, also presently Spurs starting backcourt in 3rd year of his RSC.
Denver - Morris was a 22 year old senior, presently the 6th man for the Nuggets in 2nd year of his RSC


So, what I'm gathering is the importance of these teams to draft players who are capable of providing earlier impact within their bargain RSC contracts. Sure, they've all got stars already, all procured via various means. But when planning for a window of highly competitive seasons, these are the players you need to bring in.


I'm gonna mull this over whilst trying to figure out how to best fit this approach into the timeline of Vuc's next contract, with the other RSCs we already have in place.


I'm surprised this post hasn't gotten a bunch of 'And1's.

I think there is an obvious market inefficiency there due to the stigma against older prospects. The logic is that a player should enter the NBA as soon as they are able. Thusly, anyone that doesn't enter the NBA at an early age is deemed an inferior prospect. The problem is that every player has their own developmental curve. Everyone matures differently and everyone's situation is different.

I don't really see a common thread among those players though. McCollum was an undersized SG coming out of a small school. White played at a low tier in college because his physical development came late. He only transferred to Colorado for his final season. Forbes was an exceptional 3-point shooter in college; but an otherwise limited prospect. The knock on Morris was his physical tools, but I believe he led the NCAA in AST/TO all four of his years. Brogdon and Siakam were long and physically strong players with questionable offensive tools.

I think what you want to see from an older prospect is the physical tools that will allow them to succeed at the next level and demonstrable improvement over the duration of their collegiate career. That's why I did and still like Iwundu.

I think the biggest mistake that teams make is when they burn draft picks on highly-rated high school prospects whose prospect status has dimmed due to disappointing performance at the collegiate level.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#29 » by Blue_and_Whte » Fri May 10, 2019 12:39 pm

Bensational wrote:Interesting discussion. Timing of contracts towards a window of known contention is the key. Let's break this down further.

This isn't intended to be a road map for how to build a team, just a case study.

Warriors - they got lucky with a lot of things falling into place at the right time. Curry having injury issues which lead to him signing an incredibly below market value contract, coupled with the increase in the salary cap, allowed them to add Durant. But they'd managed to win one championship without him, and have a finals appearance, so let's focus on that.

Star Player
featured scorer, elite offense
Curry, secured through draft (#7 pick?)

Secondary Star
featured scorer, elite offense, solid defender
Klay, secured through draft (#7 pick?)

Star Role Player 1
Elite defense, above average offense
Iggy, signed via FA

Star Role Player 2
Elite defense and versatile offensive coordinator
Draymond, secured through draft (2nd round?)

Veteran Anchor
Bogut, secured via trade for Monta


2011-12
It all started with the shift in direction by trading Monta for Bogut. Curry was injured, they landed another high pick, and took Harrison Barnes, and in the 2nd round they take Draymond.

2012-13
Setting Curry and Klay loose, they made the 2nd round of the playoffs.

2013-14
After their competitive season, they had the space to sign Igoudala.

2014-15
They made big changes, firing Mark Jackson and bringing Steve Kerr in. Klay, Draymond and Barnes were all still on rookie scale contracts, but all starters. Bogut, Iggy, Curry and David Lee were the only players on salaries north of $10M. They win a championship.

2015-16
Klay and Dray get paid. They lose the finals.

2016-17
They have the freakish chance of expanded salary cap and cap space to sign Kevin Durant.

The rest is history.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________


Now, the take away from here for me is the age of the rookies they were drafting in the first place.

Curry - 21 year old junior
Klay - 21 year old junior
Draymond - 22 year old senior

Being older, these players were further along in their growth and development that they were able to offer more immediate impact whilst still on rookie scale contracts.

That's got me thinking about the other competitive teams that have had high impact players on RSC's.

Portland - McCollum was a 22 year old senior, and a 20ppg starter by the 3rd year of his RSC
Toronto - Siakam was a 22 year old sophomore, and presently a 17ppg scorer in 3rd year of his RSC
Milwaukee - Brogdon was a 24 year old senior, and presently a 15ppg scorer in 3rd year of his RSC
San Antonio - White was a 23 year old senior, presently the Spurs starting backcourt in 2nd year of his RSC. Forbes was a 23 year old senior, also presently Spurs starting backcourt in 3rd year of his RSC.
Denver - Morris was a 22 year old senior, presently the 6th man for the Nuggets in 2nd year of his RSC


So, what I'm gathering is the importance of these teams to draft players who are capable of providing earlier impact within their bargain RSC contracts. Sure, they've all got stars already, all procured via various means. But when planning for a window of highly competitive seasons, these are the players you need to bring in.


I'm gonna mull this over whilst trying to figure out how to best fit this approach into the timeline of Vuc's next contract, with the other RSCs we already have in place.

Really good breakdown and good analysis. In our case surely it would improve the team but minimally imo since we still lack elite talent. Lots of people are against “older” players but you’re right they’re typically more ready to contribute.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#30 » by MoMM » Fri May 10, 2019 3:43 pm

basketballRob wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:As for older rookies, nba GMs love upside more than anything.
IF Bamba spent 3 years at college, there is good argument to be made that he would sniff nowhere near top 10 pick, as GMs keep drafting 19 years old with unknown potential (and suspicious floor ).
In 2017 for first time in draft history, all 5 prospects selected in top 5 were freshmen.
Ten of the first 11 picks were freshmen, and the one who wasn't, Frank Ntilikina, is an 18-year-old French player who didn't play college ball, and if he did,he would be freshman. So 11/11.
More than likely Bamba would've dominated college this year.

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Would he? What about injuries? Imagine that he gets injured by mid-season, what would happen to his draft stock the next season? Injury-phrone player, no one would draft that high.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#31 » by MoMM » Fri May 10, 2019 3:49 pm

zaymon wrote:4- You cant evaluate draft right now its too soon. Isaac has more potential than Fox and Tatum.

Seriously?
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#32 » by Blue_and_Whte » Fri May 10, 2019 4:02 pm

MoMM wrote:
zaymon wrote:4- You cant evaluate draft right now its too soon. Isaac has more potential than Fox and Tatum.

Seriously?

:banghead:
I would instantaneously accept an offer of either Tatum or Fox for Isaac.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#33 » by pepe1991 » Fri May 10, 2019 4:11 pm

MoMM wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:As for older rookies, nba GMs love upside more than anything.
IF Bamba spent 3 years at college, there is good argument to be made that he would sniff nowhere near top 10 pick, as GMs keep drafting 19 years old with unknown potential (and suspicious floor ).
In 2017 for first time in draft history, all 5 prospects selected in top 5 were freshmen.
Ten of the first 11 picks were freshmen, and the one who wasn't, Frank Ntilikina, is an 18-year-old French player who didn't play college ball, and if he did,he would be freshman. So 11/11.
More than likely Bamba would've dominated college this year.

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Would he? What about injuries? Imagine that he gets injured by mid-season, what would happen to his draft stock the next season? Injury-phrone player, no one would draft that high.


That's why makes no sense for potential picks to stay at college.
They are bound for $15M + sponroship deal in nba even if they bust out like MFers
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#34 » by MoMM » Fri May 10, 2019 4:16 pm

Blue_and_Whte wrote:
MoMM wrote:
zaymon wrote:4- You cant evaluate draft right now its too soon. Isaac has more potential than Fox and Tatum.

Seriously?

:banghead:
I would instantaneously accept an offer of either Tatum or Fox for Isaac.

And we don't even need to account that both are younger than Isaac.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#35 » by MoMM » Fri May 10, 2019 4:30 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
MoMM wrote:
basketballRob wrote:More than likely Bamba would've dominated college this year.

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Would he? What about injuries? Imagine that he gets injured by mid-season, what would happen to his draft stock the next season? Injury-phrone player, no one would draft that high.


That's why makes no sense for potential picks to stay at college.
They are bound for $15M + sponroship deal in nba even if they bust out like MFers

Exactly, it doesn't make any sense to a player decide to stay in college if they are going to be selected at top 10, that's why teams should be smarter and only draft players that are more ready and mature (read: generational talent). If their draft stock weren't that high, they would stay another year.

Most of the freshmen are not ready to handle NBA and they only produce something relevant by 3rd year or so, close to extending their contracts, so they get overpaid as the OP mentioned. Basically teams are paying a lot of money for their first 2 years and they don't bring anything to the table.

Think about Bruno Caboclo, drafted at #20 by our current GM, he wasn't ready for NBA, famously mentioned as "two years away from being two years away.", so what? He was garbage for his 4 first seasons in the NBA and now, in his 5th season (23 years old), he produced 8/4.5 for Memphis, not his original team. Even his famous quote was right in the end, but Toronto didn't get anything from him except wasting 7M and a valuable pick.

Generational talent is someone that can be drafted directly from HS and play at least backup minutes, see: Kobe, D12, McGrady, Kemp, LeBron, Garnett and even them weren't drafted that high, most of them at late lottery. It's more about not having a mature body than basketball skills (high bball IQ), they pass the eye test easily, it's not like Isaac who seems lost when attacking and Bamba totally lost on both ends. Perhaps they will get some bball IQ in some years, perhaps not, no one can predict that, check JaVale McGee or our Steven Hunter.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#36 » by pepe1991 » Fri May 10, 2019 4:36 pm

MoMM wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
MoMM wrote:Would he? What about injuries? Imagine that he gets injured by mid-season, what would happen to his draft stock the next season? Injury-phrone player, no one would draft that high.


That's why makes no sense for potential picks to stay at college.
They are bound for $15M + sponroship deal in nba even if they bust out like MFers

Exactly, it doesn't make any sense to a player decide to stay in college if they are going to be selected at top 10, that's why teams should be smarter and only draft players that are more ready and mature (read: generational talent). If their draft stock weren't that high, they would stay another year.

Most of the freshmen are not ready to handle NBA and they only produce something relevant by 3rd year or so, close to extending their contracts, so they get overpaid as the OP mentioned. Basically teams are paying a lot of money for their first 2 years and they don't bring anything to the table.

Think about Bruno Caboclo, drafted at #20 by our current GM, he wasn't ready for NBA, famously mentioned as "two years away from being two years away.", so what? He was garbage for his 4 first seasons in the NBA and now, in his 5th season (23 years old), he produced 8/4.5 for Memphis, not his original team. Even his famous quote was right in the end, but Toronto didn't get anything from him except wasting 7M and a valuable pick.

Generational talent is someone that can be drafted directly from HS and play at least backup minutes, see: Kobe, D12, McGrady, Kemp, Garnett and even them weren't drafted that high, most of them at late lottery. It's more about not having a mature body than basketball skills (high bball IQ).



Yea my first post on this thread is similar. That's why i posted salaries of extensions that ex rookies signed. Almost every single one that was not complete bust got overpayed.
Because drafting freshmen is a thing, teams almost always waste rookie contract AND NEED to sign extension just to figure out what the have in player. And almost always second contract is overpay on 4 years because he might turn into something big, so gotta have him signed long term.
That's why being in lottery longer than 3 , at most 4 years makes no sense. With or without landing star. If you didn't , you just failed. If you did land star, good for you, time to build around him by selling other assets to max out his talent and give him good players.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#37 » by MoMM » Fri May 10, 2019 4:55 pm

2017 NBA Draft, list of non-freshman players drafted in the 1st round:
- Luke Kennard, #12
- Donovan Mitchell, #13
- Justin Jackson, #15
- D. J. Wilson, #17
- John Collins, #19
- OG Anunoby, #23
- Tyler Lydon, #24
- Caleb Swanigan, #26
- Kyle Kuzma, #27
- Derrick White, #29
- Josh Hart, #30

I'd say that at least 4 of them have a really good chance to be a better player than Isaac (Mitchell, Collins, Kuzma, White and maybe we can add Kennard and Hart to this list). With our #6 pick we could easily have traded for 2 of them. Imagine John Collins and Donovan Mitchell (best case scenario) on our team instead of Isaac...

There is a reason that most of the teams don't trade up in the NFL, they know that in most cases it won't work out, not to mention that their rookies usually play 3 or 4 years in NCAA before going to NFL, so it's way easier to evaluate them.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#38 » by MagicMatic » Fri May 10, 2019 7:43 pm

Older prospects that could contribute immediately and adapt situationally depending on environment.

Rui Hatchimura
DeAndre Hunter
Brandon Clarke
Ty Jerome
Matisse Thybulle
Cameron Johnson
Admiral Schofield
Dylan Windler
Carsen Edwards
Aubrey Dawkins
Kyle Guy

These are the guys that I think could help us utilizing our second round pick or trading up in the draft. Some of these prospects were integrated into systems and already have developed skill sets. They can contribute next season with Isaac and AG.
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#39 » by pepe1991 » Fri May 10, 2019 9:29 pm

Imo ( witch isn't really mine opinion but factual) , GMs in general would always take fly on 19 years old Young Youngish with LOOOOONG shot at being new Giannis/ Lebron based on potential than second year college player that they know will contribute right away and floor of Tobias Harris.

Buddy Hield, one of the best shooters in nba was drafted after:
Brown
Simmons
Ingram
Bender

In hindsight, if you have good ballhandler he was probably best pick
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#40 » by Bensational » Fri May 10, 2019 11:32 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Imo ( witch isn't really mine opinion but factual) , GMs in general would always take fly on 19 years old Young Youngish with LOOOOONG shot at being new Giannis/ Lebron based on potential than second year college player that they know will contribute right away and floor of Tobias Harris.

Buddy Hield, one of the best shooters in nba was drafted after:
Brown
Simmons
Ingram
Bender

In hindsight, if you have good ballhandler he was probably best pick


As someone said above, of you're picking high, go for the transcendental talent that can play now, plus has an elite physical profile.

Later in the draft, possibly mid lottery on, and depending on where you are in your rebuild, it could make sense to trade back for more assets and to take a seasoned player who can make an impact faster.

Look at the Lakers. If after last season they'd decided to flip Kuzma, they could have landed a solid haul for him on talent and capability alone, not to mention the extra value he adds by being on a rookie scale contract.

There could be scope for a new 'process' for a team, if they shift to targetting mature rookies. A means for them to remain competitive, whilst still adding to a stockpile of talent. Eventually they'll hit on some real gems like Jokic, Draymond, Middleton, Gasol, Gobert, Mitchell, etc. Then it's just a matter of using your assets wisely to get into contending shape.

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