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GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion

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pepe1991
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#221 » by pepe1991 » Wed Jun 5, 2019 6:11 am

Xatticus wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Vogel and Skiles took offense away from Vučević and failed misserably because of it. Basic logic: play offense through your best offensive player.


Nobody took offense away from Vucevic. He has had the highest usage among our starters in each of the past five seasons. He simply didn't do much with the usage he was given up until this season. Some combination of a contract year, his replacement being drafted with the 6th overall pick, or the hiring of Steve Clifford finally lit a fire under his ass. Now we are looking at the prospect of paying him $25M per year in the hope that this is the new norm, while players with superior offensive résumés (Brook Lopez and DeMarcus Cousins) are playing for contenders for a small fraction of the price we are contemplating.

His next contract really worries me. If we get something more comparable to the player we have had for his first six years in a Magic uniform, his contract becomes a huge problem. There is just too much depth at the position across the NBA and few teams will actually value him in the way that Clifford does. Clifford will use him as a crutch, but most of the NBA has moved beyond using the post game to facilitate offense.


It's not hard to track his usage and see that team did best when he did much more than others.

2014-15
Vučević 26% usage rate = 52,4% eFG ,19,3 ppg
Oladipo 25% usage rate = 47% FG, 17,9 ppg
Tobias Harris 22,6% usage rate= 51% eFG, 17 ppg

So Vučević scored more on almost identical usage rate, just on 5% eFG better than second most used player.


2015-16 , second most sucesfull season in rebuild
Vučević 27% usage rate
Oladipo 23%
Payton 20%

2016-17 moving offense from Vučević
24,8% usage rate
Fournier 24% usage rate
Payton 21,6% usage rate
Ibaka 21% usage rate

Vučević "lost" 3% usage rate, result , from 105 OFF rating to 103 ( 21st to 29th ), Magic go from 35 to 29 wins.


2017-18
Vučević 25,9% usage
Gordon 25% usage
Fournier 23% usage
Simmons 22% usage

25 wins.


2018-19
Vučević 29% usage rate
Ross 24%

Evan and Gordon moved below 22%
Result: playoffs.

So co-relation is there. When his usage was challenged , or equaled by lesser players (Payton,Gordon, Evan) whole team was crumbling.
Now would you want admit it that facts are there, or not. It's really not mine problem.
Logic is simple : your best player has to have huge usage rate because he is that much better than guys around him. And with him and Magic it's more obvious than anything else.
"A straight path never leads anywhere except to the objective."
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Xatticus
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#222 » by Xatticus » Thu Jun 6, 2019 7:48 am

Yeah...

pepe1991 wrote:2014-15
Vučević 26% usage rate = 52,4% eFG ,19,3 ppg
Oladipo 25% usage rate = 47% FG, 17,9 ppg
Tobias Harris 22,6% usage rate= 51% eFG, 17 ppg

So Vučević scored more on almost identical usage rate, just on 5% eFG better than second most used player.


Usage essentially measures the percentage of possessions that end with said player. This includes turnovers; which are pretty much always higher for ball handlers (for obvious reasons). Effective field goal percentage completely ignores free throws, which is why that particular metric has always flattered Vucevic.

TS% for each of those players in that same season:
Vucevic - .548
Oladipo - .527
Harris - .551

Let's compare Vucevic's scoring efficiency to the team and league over each of the last five seasons.

Vucevic/Orlando/NBA
2014/15 - .548/.524/.534
2015/16 - .531/.533/.541
2016/17 - .498/.524/.552
2017/18 - .533/.545/.556
2018/19 - .573/.550/.560

Over the last five years:
Vucevic - .539
Orlando - .536
NBA - .549

So yeah... he finished below the team average in scoring efficiency in three of the five seasons in which he led the starters in usage (including his glorious contract year).

pepe1991 wrote:2016-17 moving offense from Vučević
24,8% usage rate
Fournier 24% usage rate
Payton 21,6% usage rate
Ibaka 21% usage rate

Vučević "lost" 3% usage rate, result , from 105 OFF rating to 103 ( 21st to 29th ), Magic go from 35 to 29 wins.


You are arguing that Vucevic's drop in usage is what killed our offense? I'd argue that we finished 29th in offensive efficiency because our highest usage player (Vucevic) had an abysmal .498 TS%. He ranked 164th in scoring efficiency among the 182 players eligible for the scoring title. Do you actually believe that giving him more usage in that season would've been the cure to our offensive woes?

We won 42 games this year because we were a very good defensive team (+2.3). It is the first time in Vucevic's six seasons in Orlando that we finished better than league average in efficiency at either end of the court. The only other occasion when we came close to league average at either end of the court? That would be the 35-win team when we were a slightly below average defensive team (-0.4).

Our record this year: 42-40
w/ league avg offense: 46-36
w/ league avg defense: 37-45
w/ GS offense (best): 61-21
w/ NYK offense (worst): 30-52
w/ MIL defense (best): 49-33
w/ CLV defense (worst): 21-61
"Xatticus has always been, in my humble opinion best poster here. Should write articles or something."
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Re: GM Philosophies and Theory - general offseason discussion 

Post#223 » by ezzzp » Thu Jun 6, 2019 6:38 pm

Xatticus wrote:
Spoiler:
Yeah...

pepe1991 wrote:2014-15
Vučević 26% usage rate = 52,4% eFG ,19,3 ppg
Oladipo 25% usage rate = 47% FG, 17,9 ppg
Tobias Harris 22,6% usage rate= 51% eFG, 17 ppg

So Vučević scored more on almost identical usage rate, just on 5% eFG better than second most used player.


Usage essentially measures the percentage of possessions that end with said player. This includes turnovers; which are pretty much always higher for ball handlers (for obvious reasons). Effective field goal percentage completely ignores free throws, which is why that particular metric has always flattered Vucevic.

TS% for each of those players in that same season:
Vucevic - .548
Oladipo - .527
Harris - .551

Let's compare Vucevic's scoring efficiency to the team and league over each of the last five seasons.

Vucevic/Orlando/NBA
2014/15 - .548/.524/.534
2015/16 - .531/.533/.541
2016/17 - .498/.524/.552
2017/18 - .533/.545/.556
2018/19 - .573/.550/.560

Over the last five years:
Vucevic - .539
Orlando - .536
NBA - .549

So yeah... he finished below the team average in scoring efficiency in three of the five seasons in which he led the starters in usage (including his glorious contract year).

pepe1991 wrote:2016-17 moving offense from Vučević
24,8% usage rate
Fournier 24% usage rate
Payton 21,6% usage rate
Ibaka 21% usage rate

Vučević "lost" 3% usage rate, result , from 105 OFF rating to 103 ( 21st to 29th ), Magic go from 35 to 29 wins.


You are arguing that Vucevic's drop in usage is what killed our offense? I'd argue that we finished 29th in offensive efficiency because our highest usage player (Vucevic) had an abysmal .498 TS%. He ranked 164th in scoring efficiency among the 182 players eligible for the scoring title. Do you actually believe that giving him more usage in that season would've been the cure to our offensive woes?

We won 42 games this year because we were a very good defensive team (+2.3). It is the first time in Vucevic's six seasons in Orlando that we finished better than league average in efficiency at either end of the court. The only other occasion when we came close to league average at either end of the court? That would be the 35-win team when we were a slightly below average defensive team (-0.4).

Our record this year: 42-40
w/ league avg offense: 46-36
w/ league avg defense: 37-45
w/ GS offense (best): 61-21
w/ NYK offense (worst): 30-52
w/ MIL defense (best): 49-33
w/ CLV defense (worst): 21-61


Vucevic adding a 3pt shot was a game changer for him though. That is a key reason his TS% has jumped. That's not going away.

17-18 was his first year shooting it at a significant volume (208). Up until his injury on December 22nd, he had shot it at 34.3% (144 attempts), not good - not bad. But after being inactive for 2 months (ret. 2/22), it fell off considerably to .250 on 64 attempts.

Then after another offseason of working on his 3PTer, his 3P% jumped to .364 on 231 attempts last year. But again, the % drops the further into the season (Pre All-Star: .380 / Post All-Star: .317).

So the next step is for him to sustain that effectiveness all season at higher volume. When asked in his exit interview what he was going to work on over the summer, he said his focus was going to be the 3PT shot as Clifford and Magic FO told him that's what it should be. In later interview, Clifford said that he wants Vucevic to have capacity to take six 3PA's per game next year.

Because of this, his improved TS% shouldn't be considered a fluke. Its a clear developmental improvement that should continue to trend up. Its a very natural evolution of his game as he has always been a solid perimeter shooter (those dreaded long two's), he's just extended it out slightly to a much more effective shot zone.

In addition, Clifford giving him more volume inside of 5' has also shifted more shots to another high efficiency location:

Spoiler:
18-19: 478 FGA <5' at 66.9 FG% / 227 FTA
17-18: 221 FGA <5' at 71.5 FG% / 94 FTA
16-17: 278 FGA <5' at 59.7 FG% / 160 FTA
15-16: 310 FGA <5' at 61.3 FG% / 150 FTA
14-15: 451 FGA <5' at 63.4 FG% / 218 FTA


Not only has Vucevic improved his effectiveness in that area, but now Clifford has more than doubled his volume in that higher efficiency zone. There is no reason to think that effectiveness is going to drop. Its not like that volume and efficiency are reliant on assisted dunks based on athleticism...on the contrary they are based on him honing his low post skills and bbIQ as he entered his prime.

If Vucevic continues his trend of shifting more volume to those two high efficiency shots (<5' / 3PA) that TS% should continue to rise. Plus the more volume in the low post he gets, his FT rate should naturally increase.

The Defense was a huge part of the Magic's success. That defense was highly reliant on defensive rebounding, Magic were 3d in NBA at it. Vucevic was 7th in NBA in Defensive Rebound %, 5th if you only count starters. In addition, he led the entire NBA in Defensive Box Outs. His rebounding and box outs were a major factor in the success of Clifford's defensive system (and thus wins).

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