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The case for Matisse Thybulle

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The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#1 » by Skin » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:58 pm

I can't let an offseason go by without making a "case" thread for this year's draft. This would be the 5th year going by doing so.

I first did one for Trey Burke, then Kristaps Porzingis, followed by Jonathan Isaac and last year it was Mikal Bridges. The purpose is to make a case for semi-dark horse options and not so much that we should take them at our current draft spot, but that we should consider them in trade downs or trade ups as well. We've had some great discussions in the past... The KP thread was a fun 72 pages long!

I don't expect this thread to go beyond 5 pages, but it should! This year, my candidate is Matisse Thybulle from the University of Washington!

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TEAM: Washington
YEAR: Senior
POSITION: SG/SF
HEIGHT: 6'5"
WINGSPAN: 7'0"
WEIGHT: 195 lbs


Thybulle did not attend the NBA Combine so he has been flying under the radar a bit. I feel like if he were listed on the common height/wingspan charts out there that he would be garnering a lot more attention from Magic fans. But that is probably the very reason why he did not participate in the combine. Rumor first had it that he had a draft promise from OKC... that followed by rumors that Boston and most lately, the Spurs have given him a promise at pick 19... causing some to believe that the Celtics might now reach for him at pick 14.

Magic fans should not be sleeping on Thybulle. He's the 2 time Defensive POY in the PAC12 conference and it's not just in label. He surpassed Gary Payton's 30 year steal record and was a demon on defense being the NCAA leader in steals this year, averaging 3.5 spg and also tacking on 2.3 bpg. PAC12 Defensive Rating (1st), Defensive Win Shares (1st), Defensive Box Plus/Minus (1st), Box Plus/Minus (1st). He's not just a great defender, he's a world class elite defender. His zone and on ball defense is easily the best in this draft and these skills should translate early as he moves to the NBA. Defensive ability is often talked about as something you either have or don't have. You need certain God given talents to be a good defender. But just because you have a long wingspan or explosive traits... it doesn't automatically make you a good defender. His unique combination of high BBIQ, great length, hand speed, high motor, energy, grit and will make for a truly rare defender.

[quote]Indeed, there's only four palyers besides Thybulle in Sports-Reference searchable database (back to 91-92) to have NBA wing size and NBA wing athleticism and to even have 100 steals and 20 blocks in a season.

Great read: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/01/06/draft-notes-understanding-matisse-thybulle//quote]

To put that into perspective, Thybulle finished his senior season with 126 steals and 82 blocks!

With the rule changes and modern trends in the NBA, backcourt defense is becoming a more and more greater need than low post defense and I'm not sure if that's catching on just yet. Guards who light up the league on offense, but give it right back on defense are sitting down at home right now watching the NBA Finals. Good teams need to be able to lock down the wings. Curry, Klay, KD, Lowry, Green, Leonard... they can get the job done on both sides of the ball.

Thybulle checks off the boxes on defense, but where does he stand on offense, you say? Well, this is where we start realizing why he's not being talked about much as a lottery guy. After a 4 year college career, Thybulle only stands at a meager 9 ppg scorer... but don't let that sway you too much. His offense is efficient. Career .550 TS%, .358 3PT%. That puts him in good territory. Maybe his ceiling is low, but his floor is certainly high especially being a more seasoned college prospect. But even though he enters the league at 22 years old, he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. Kind of reminds me of the way Oladipo came into the league as a 3 year college player and only a 10 ppg college scorer. You never know what can happen when a player has drive and opportunity. Yes, critics will point to his dip in 3PT efficiency this past season as he shot a low .305 percentage. However, 3 prior years shooting .366, .405 and .365 combined with his .851 Free Throw accuracy tells me we can believe in his offensive upside.

Right now I have Thybulle ahead of names like Langford, NAW, Porter Jr, Keldon, Okpala. Langford is too much of a wild card. He's a scorer, but it's hard to trust his efficiencies... a big part of me does not buy injury as a reason for his college season and now it seems like he's protecting himself from being exposed in predraft workouts by declaring another injury. NAW has a lot to like, most especially his playmaking, but he's such a vanilla player with his lack of NBA athleticism. On the other hand, Porter oozes athleticism, but he hasn't put it all together yet. Porter is #2 on my list because he is more naturally gifted. Keldon looks like a Keith Bogans type of player, Herro is a defensive liability and Okpala would not be talked about if he wasn't long. So I have them ranked Thybulle, Porter Jr, NAW, Langford, Keldon, Herro, Okpala. It's a mishmatch bunch for sure in terms of the talent available in our range at 16. To each their own. For me, it's Thybulle who gives me the most security... solid defense combined with hopeful upside on offense. Even if we get a role player at 16, this is the kind of role player who could stick long term.

Under WeHam, the Magic have been giving me the feeling that they are truly building something special with thier young player acquisitions. At the forefront of that vision is tremendous length combined with athleticism and 3pt shooting. Matisse Thybulle is not on the radar for most Magic fans, but I have a feeling that he is high on WeHam's board. He seems to check off the core traits that they look for. Remember, Isaac wasn't even brought in for a visit when we drafted him. Don't be distracted by our predraft visits.

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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#2 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:37 pm

Let's Go!!!!

Been waiting to see who you picked this year.

I like him a lot. I'd like him more if we paired him with a dynamic playmaking PG. He'd fit great with DLo or if Fultz becomes who we expect. Love his defense and wouldn't mind grabbing him cause that skill will translate.

Let me ask, what's the difference between him and Ntilikina (someone we can get for cheaper than #16) .
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#3 » by Patrick1978 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:44 pm

Skin wrote:I can't let an offseason go by without making a "case" thread for this year's draft. This would be the 5th year going by doing so.

I first did one for Trey Burke, then Kristaps Porzingis, followed by Jonathan Isaac and last year it was Mikal Bridges. The purpose is to make a case for semi-dark horse options and not so much that we should take them at our current draft spot, but that we should consider them in trade downs or trade ups as well. We've had some great discussions in the past... The KP thread was a fun 72 pages long!

I don't expect this thread to go beyond 5 pages, but it should! This year, my candidate is Matisse Thybulle from the University of Washington!

Image

TEAM: Washington
YEAR: Senior
POSITION: SG/SF
HEIGHT: 6'5"
WINGSPAN: 7'0"
WEIGHT: 195 lbs


Thybulle did not attend the NBA Combine so he has been flying under the radar a bit. I feel like if he were listed on the common height/wingspan charts out there that he would be garnering a lot more attention from Magic fans. But that is probably the very reason why he did not participate in the combine. Rumor first had it that he had a draft promise from OKC... that followed by rumors that Boston and most lately, the Spurs have given him a promise at pick 19... causing some to believe that the Celtics might now reach for him at pick 14.

Magic fans should not be sleeping on Thybulle. He's the 2 time Defensive POY in the PAC12 conference and it's not just in label. He surpassed Gary Payton's 30 year steal record and was a demon on defense being the NCAA leader in steals this year, averaging 3.5 spg and also tacking on 2.3 bpg. PAC12 Defensive Rating (1st), Defensive Win Shares (1st), Defensive Box Plus/Minus (1st), Box Plus/Minus (1st). He's not just a great defender, he's a world class elite defender. His zone and on ball defense is easily the best in this draft and these skills should translate early as he moves to the NBA. Defensive ability is often talked about as something you either have or don't have. You need certain God given talents to be a good defender. But just because you have a long wingspan or explosive traits... it doesn't automatically make you a good defender. His unique combination of high BBIQ, great length, hand speed, high motor, energy, grit and will make for a truly rare defender.

Indeed, there's only four palyers besides Thybulle in Sports-Reference searchable database (back to 91-92) to have NBA wing size and NBA wing athleticism and to even have 100 steals and 20 blocks in a season.

Great read: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/01/06/draft-notes-understanding-matisse-thybulle//quote]

To put that into perspective, Thybulle finished his senior season with 126 steals and 82 blocks!

With the rule changes and modern trends in the NBA, backcourt defense is becoming a more and more greater need than low post defense and I'm not sure if that's catching on just yet. Guards who light up the league on offense, but give it right back on defense are sitting down at home right now watching the NBA Finals. Good teams need to be able to lock down the wings. Curry, Klay, KD, Lowry, Green, Leonard... they can get the job done on both sides of the ball.

Thybulle checks off the boxes on defense, but where does he stand on offense, you say? Well, this is where we start realizing why he's not being talked about much as a lottery guy. After a 4 year college career, Thybulle only stands at a meager 9 ppg scorer... but don't let that sway you too much. His offense is efficient. Career .550 TS%, .358 3PT%. That puts him in good territory. Maybe his ceiling is low, but his floor is certainly high especially being a more seasoned college prospect. But even though he enters the league at 22 years old, he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. Kind of reminds me of the way Oladipo came into the league as a 3 year college player and only a 10 ppg college scorer. You never know what can happen when a player has drive and opportunity. Yes, critics will point to his dip in 3PT efficiency this past season as he shot a low .305 percentage. However, 3 prior years shooting .366, .405 and .365 combined with his .851 Free Throw accuracy tells me we can believe in his offensive upside.

Right now I have Thybulle ahead of names like Langford, NAW, Porter Jr, Keldon, Okpala. Langford is too much of a wild card. He's a scorer, but it's hard to trust his efficiencies... a big part of me does not buy injury as a reason for his college season and now it seems like he's protecting himself from being exposed in predraft workouts by declaring another injury. NAW has a lot to like, most especially his playmaking, but he's such a vanilla player with his lack of NBA athleticism. On the other hand, Porter oozes athleticism, but he hasn't put it all together yet. Porter is #2 on my list because he is more naturally gifted. Keldon looks like a Keith Bogans type of player, Herro is a defensive liability and Okpala would not be talked about if he wasn't long. So I have them ranked Thybulle, Porter Jr, NAW, Langford, Keldon, Herro, Okpala. It's a mishmatch bunch for sure in terms of the talent available in our range at 16. To each their own. For me, it's Thybulle who gives me the most security... solid defense combined with hopeful upside on offense. Even if we get a role player at 16, this is the kind of role player who could stick long term.

Under WeHam, the Magic have been giving me the feeling that they are truly building something special with thier young player acquisitions. At the forefront of that vision is tremendous length combined with athleticism and 3pt shooting. Matisse Thybulle is not on the radar for most Magic fans, but I have a feeling that he is high on WeHam's board. He seems to check off the core traits that they look for. Remember, Isaac wasn't even brought in for a visit when we drafted him. Don't be distracted by our predraft visits.


Great post Skin.
Always a pleasure to read them.
You have great arguments for thybulle.

I really like thybulle but not for the Magic.
Orlando needs playmaking and shooting not another defensive player.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#4 » by PrimeThyme » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:51 pm

Bridges and especially Isaac were definitely dark-horse prospects that I had no issue cosigning and I do enjoy these threads, but you have lost me a bit on this one. If we left with Matisse Thybulle on draft day as our first round pick I would be incredibly disappointed. At some point, I just think we have to start adding an influx of shotmaking/playmaking talent to this roster. If we had drafted that the last couple years (been in position to draft a Tatum or Trae young) then I could see the case for drafting a low ceiling highly skilled defensive player like Thybulle, but having drafted that type of player the previous 2 years I just don't think there is a strong case at all for drafting him.

Oladipo, especially in his 3rd year, showed an upward trajectory offensively. From his sophomore year to his junior year his numbers went significantly up across the board offensively (10 ppg to 13 ppg, 47 fg% to 59 fg%, 20 3pt fg% to 44 3pt fg%, etc). Thybulle, on the other hand, saw drops in ppg, apg, fg%, 3pt fg%, and pretty much every other notable category offensively compared to his junior year and his numbers were never very impressive to begin with. So I'm not seeing an Oladipo or anything close to it type of offensive trajectory for him whatsoever and think he will be very limited as he was in college on that end.

I think in a deeper draft Thybulle isnt a first-round type of talent. He is the type of player that if we went shotmaking at 16 and then moved up in the second to draft I'd be pretty content with, but I have guys like NAW, Herro, Langford, KPJ, Keldon Johnson, etc. way ahead of him on my big board.

Don't get me wrong though, I'm not saying that he is a bad player in the slightest. There is a reason why he is a 2x Pac defensive player of the year. His defensive instincts are pretty off the charts ( 2.3 bpg, 3.5 stpg, with a 10.0 DBPM :o, is impressive) and his ft% gives me some hope that he could turn into a 3&D player at the next level I just don't think his fit on our roster is a good one.

Given our front offices track record and how surprising the Iwundu/Frazier picks were, I would not be at all surprised if Thybulle is a lot higher on their big boards though so I can agree with you on that premise.

I would still be shocked/disappointed if he was our pick at 16 though.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#5 » by MagicMatic » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:52 pm

Huge fan of Thybulle. Wish he provided some offensive production that Orlando was severely missing.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#6 » by SOUL » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:53 pm

I really like Thybulle. Not sure at 16 though, but I think he will be a really solid player and an upgrade over Iwundu.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#7 » by Message Boar » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:04 pm

I'm about ready to go to bed so I can't get into it too much, might edit some more stuff in tomorrow.

Short version: I like Thybulle and he's probably one of the safest prospects in this draft, I just wish he were younger mostly. 16 feels a bit high for him, but I could live with it. One possible destination for him is OKC to me, that regime always seems to go for players like him and he could step right in and contribute.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#8 » by MoMM » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:26 pm

SOUL wrote:I really like Thybulle. Not sure at 16 though, but I think he will be a really solid player and an upgrade over Iwundu.

As OP said, we could always trade down, for example, #16 to Brooklyn for #27 and #31.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#9 » by Skin » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:20 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:Let's Go!!!!

Been waiting to see who you picked this year.

I like him a lot. I'd like him more if we paired him with a dynamic playmaking PG. He'd fit great with DLo or if Fultz becomes who we expect. Love his defense and wouldn't mind grabbing him cause that skill will translate.

Let me ask, what's the difference between him and Ntilikina (someone we can get for cheaper than #16) .

Agreed. I would like him more with a scoring/playmaking PG. Part of what makes me take the risk here is because I like the 2nd round PGs quite a bit. Jaylen Hands, Jalen Lecque, Ky Bowman, Cody Martin. Hands especially seems to fit that type.

Ntililkina is a PG so it's not really filling the same type of need.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#10 » by Skin » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:53 pm

Patrick1978 wrote:Great post Skin.
Always a pleasure to read them.
You have great arguments for thybulle.

I really like thybulle but not for the Magic.
Orlando needs playmaking and shooting not another defensive player.

Thanks Patrick! Love your enthusiasm for the draft as well.

I think NAW fits what you're looking for, and I like him a lot too. Good chance he's also gone by our pick too. But nobody talks about Thybulle and I think they should. Every team could use a player like him who can be a legitimate game changer on the defensive end against high scoring wings. If I didn't believe in his shooting then I wouldn't have endorsed him so much, but I do believe in what I see. His form is consistent, he releases at his high point and his follow through is textbook. Sometimes he leaves his elbow a little more out than you like but his shot mechanics are smooth. A good shooting coach ought to improve him in a flash.

As for being a playmaker... you know sometimes you don't have to be a big assist guy in order to have the right formula of guys on the floor together... if you are unselfish with the ball and have a team first mentality, that can be just as valuable. Thybulle has proven to be exactly that (his box plus/minus is incredible) and what he does is infectious and carries over to the rest of the team. If Thybulle, Isaac, Gordon and Bamba are motivating each other and being disruptive on defense, I can imagine a whole lot of things going right on the floor for the Magic. The offense will come naturally.

If you have a chance check out his game winning steal and windmill dunk against USC. Thing of beauty.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#11 » by SD2042 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:38 am

Thybulle is a prospect I've been paying attention to in recent weeks. He would wreak havoc as a defensive player at both SG and Sf positions. He puts me in the mindset of a Tony Allen with a three point shot. He will be a great role player for a team that has more structure than the Magic currently have. I do not envision him being picked by the Magic. However, I can see a team like Golden State or San Antonio drafting this guy as he would go to a more establish team where he can play his role well and doesn't have to go beyond the parameters of his role.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#12 » by Skin » Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:40 am

Message Boar wrote:I'm about ready to go to bed so I can't get into it too much, might edit some more stuff in tomorrow.

Short version: I like Thybulle and he's probably one of the safest prospects in this draft, I just wish he were younger mostly. 16 feels a bit high for him, but I could live with it. One possible destination for him is OKC to me, that regime always seems to go for players like him and he could step right in and contribute.

Yeah especially with Roberson completely scared to ever take a wide open shot.. Thybulle surrounded by Westbrook and George is quite a fit. Plus, Roberson is a $10M expiring contract next season. Okc would have options if they drafted Thybulle.

I don't think he makes it to them though.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#13 » by Bensational » Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:47 am

Thybulle seems like a great addition to a team with some stars already in place.

I wouldn't be upset if we took him. He's older and will contribute sooner, meaning he might become a piece that can be consolidated in the future for a serious upgrade.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#14 » by Xatticus » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:07 am

He's just a really poor fit for us. I'd also really caution against his upside. It just isn't there. He's not going to help at the offensive end.

It's not just about his age, but rather how he performed against his competition. By their senior year, a college player is competing against a field of competition that is significantly disadvantaged in physical maturation. His scoring opportunities were sparse within this landscape. The NBA is going to provide an entirely different challenge in this regard. You want to see offensive growth over the span of the collegiate career. This goes beyond improvements in efficiency.

I read at some point that we interviewed Culver at the combine. That's who I'd love to get. He's a really good defender (Texas Tech led the NCAA in Drtg), but he has shown a lot more at the offensive end and he is a full two years younger.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#15 » by BadMofoPimp » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:14 am

You had me at elite defense.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#16 » by IllMagic04 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:28 am

Great post. I remember we were teamates against all the Trae Young haters.... but I cant roll with you on this. We NEED offense. Badly. NAW, Hero or Johnson have to be the selection. Now if we can trade in to another first rounder then sure. But we cant walk out of a third straight draft with a offensivley challenged player.

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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#17 » by fendilim » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:31 am

He is good but we dont really need another defender, tbh. We need someone who can help offensively. Not even a scorer, but a shooter who can create more space.

And the Oladipo comparison is way off.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#18 » by Skin » Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:21 am

fendilim wrote:He is good but we dont really need another defender, tbh. We need someone who can help offensively. Not even a scorer, but a shooter who can create more space.

And the Oladipo comparison is way off.

Eh I knew some would take the Oladipo reference to another place. It wasn't a player to player comp. It was a raw scorer/good defender comp. I don't think he'll take off as a scorer like Dipo. Prime made a good point about Dipo's scoring having an upward trajectory. My point was mainly that his scoring potential was raw coming out of college. I should've made another comp but Dipo was a thought close to home.

I do think Thybulle has a game more tailored to the NBA and I don't like the Tony Allen, Andre Roberson comps. I see more of a Trevor Ariza, Nic Batum 3D type of player. At 16, I'll take that.

Nick Nurse just said it... Defense and unselfishness won them the championship. To me Thybulle is a championship type chess piece. Whether that's as a starter or off the bench... not sure.
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#19 » by The Effect » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:49 am

I swear some of you take this love of defense way too far. Not even joking, what is it with this sites obsession with guys who cant score?? SO you really think we are going to plan on winning games 51-45?? Cause if this guys a starter, that might be our only way to win

Seriously, lets say that this guy was a starter on this team, Between Bamba, GOrdon, isaac, Thybulle and DJ\Fultz........WHERE ARE THE POINTS COMING FROM??? Think about that for a second, in that lineupe, AARON GORDON WOULD BE OUR BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER.......sorry but that team is competing for the #1 pick, not the playoffs

Thanks but no, give me a guy who can actually put the ball in the basket
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Re: The case for Matisse Thybulle 

Post#20 » by zaymon » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:55 am

If we want to go with great defender i need more from a prospect. Claxton is much longer with great handle for a big and much younger, Williams is not near elite defender but he is versatile, strong and his offense is on another level, Langford has similar physical gifts but with innate scoring ability. Clarke is better defender, bigger and could score even without 3 pointer. If Thybulle had above average passing i could argue he is worth a look, but as he is i see much less potential than in Frazier. He would propably never crack our rotation.
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