OrlandoNed wrote:Pass. We need more offense. I've had more than my fill of all defense, no offense prospects over the last 7 years especially one with the lowest ceiling yet.
From thestepien: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/01/06/draft-notes-understanding-matisse-thybulle/
There’s a lot of reasons to doubt Thybulle’s offense in the NBA. He’s currently shooting 31 percent from 3 for one.** His usage has never exceeded 20 percent. He’s never been part of a highly functioning offense, and his career ORtg is only 106.
Yet if we break down the individual components of his offense, we can see there’s a lot to like.*** For one, he’s currently a 50 percent shooter from 2, a 37 percent shooter from 3 and a 77 percent shooter from the free throw line for his career. Second, he gets up 5.5 threes per 40 minutes for his career on a trajectory that has improved every single season (he’s at 6.3 per 40 this year). Third, on very low attempts this year, he’s shooting 90 percent from the free throw line.
Just using career percentage numbers, we can come up with some close off-the-ball comparables. The nearest to Thybulle is probably Steve Blake, not in terms of ball skills, but in terms 3P-FT numbers and shot versatility, as both are basically set shooters. Despite dribbling skill, in Blake’s best 3-point percentage seasons in the NBA, somewhere above 87 percent of his makes are assisted. In other words, most of them.
Of course you have your two flame outs in terms of 3-point shooting (Hunter and Baker), but most of this list tops out respectably and has fairly good 3-point percentage careers. And even a guy like Harpring, who shot 33 percent for his career would not be a terrible result for Thybulle if he defends, since that gets him on the court and due to the nature of NBA series and shot variance is even high enough that whoever plays him would still have a legit chance to win, given that the rest of the team is good enough.
Though my guess would be something in between Harpring and Blake, something more towards the career numbers of a guy like Covington (with less NBA volume), Francisco Garcia or Mario Chalmers.
The other positive number for Thybulle with regards to his shot is his unassisted jumper profile from mid-range over the past three seasons. This year he’s a 3-true outcomes player (Rim-3PA-FTA,) but as a sophomore and junior he did shoot mid-range jump shots to great effect. The total over the last three seasons is 0-9 this season (not good), 24 of 68 as a junior with 20 being unassisted, and 34 of 77 as a sophomore with 22 being unassisted. Even with the 0-9 this year, that’s 37.7 percent from the mid-range over the last three years, which is very healthy.
Add in a better than 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio (which is nearly 2:1 this season), and there’s reasons to think we can begin to project Thybulle into a solid role as a shooter/4th or 5th offensive player.
Again, if he plays defense, he doesn’t need to be more to add lots of value. And that’s not to mention, he could be one of the rare off-ball guys (Brewer was one, KCP is one, I still think Mikal Bridges ultimately will be) who provides offensive value as a transition player.
Given the likelihood of Thybulle meeting the minimum shooting threshold for his defense to ultimately make him a positive player (he’s not a 100% lock, but he’s likely closer to 100% than 50%, and even at 50%, Thybulle’s a good bet, especially considering he could vastly clear the minimum threshold both for his career and in his best seasons), it’s difficult to see how Thybulle isn’t a first round pick. If not perhaps better. Indeed, it’s one of the conundrums of this draft. If the draft is so uniquely terrible, how is it deep enough that a player who’s more likely to be a positive contributor, possibly even a uniquely valuable contributor, is by so many not even considered draftable?
Think about it. Can a draft simultaneously be uniquely awful and have a player like Thybulle rated as a consensus undraftable player?
For me, I’ve thought about it, and I’m fairly sure I’ll have Thybulle as a lottery level player now and come season’s end. The offense is not the exciting aspect here. There’s only a +1 or +1.5 upside there. It’s the defense with Thybulle who displays good tools (frame at 6-foot-5 or 6-foot-6, wingspan at 7-foot, solidly built, good feet and lateral slide) or elite tools (defensive hand speed and accuracy, intuition, recognition, space reading, sense of time/space/court) where players need them to add potentially massive amounts of value on that end.
Right now, he’s one of my seven favorite players in the draft, those being Zion Williamson, Brandon Clarke, Grant Williams, Jarrett Culver, Tre Jones, Jaxson Hayes and Thybulle.