Re: Chuma Okeke drafted #16 by the Orlando Magic
Posted: Mon Sep 2, 2019 4:19 pm
well it is what it is. We will see how this all pans out in the end. Hopefully, we made the correct choice, only time will tell.
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pepe1991 wrote:NAW had 139 assists to 97 turnovers in second year at college
Okeke had 73 assists to 66 turnovers
So Okeke was actually worst in that deparment
Okeke 59,7% TS to 58,6% NAW, given one is guard and other is wing ,and usage ,it's almost identical, especially knowing NAW averaged 4 points per game more.
Their overall 3 point shooting at college was also similar
Okeke was 88/229 ---38,9%
NAW 116/303 ---38,3%
That's virtually identical percentage, differential is below 0,1%.
Other than that Okeke seems to be Covington type of player , if he pans out.
Okeke's ball skills and shot creativity are limited. He attempted just 3.3 free throws per 40 minutes, a reflection on his predictability with the ball. Okeke could also improve his finishing in crowds, having shot just 18-of-45 on rolls to the basket while making one runner all season. And after he went 4-of-24 on pull-up jumpers, the scouting report will alert defense to close out hard and run him off the three-point line.
On top of all that, he won't play this season
Bensational wrote:Reckless passer? Sure, he was looking for the flashy play over the smart play more often than not. But this is a kid who came from one of the most well oiled and well groomed systems in college, so let's not try to paint a picture of him as loose cannon. What he did show is that he can step beyond that and serve as lead playmaker who is a threat to shoot, drive or pass at any point.
You called him "super inefficient" before. 43% overall on FG% isn't great, but 80% from FT on 5.75 attempts a game is pretty good. So's 41% from 3 on 8 attempts a game.... I hope Fournier can be that inefficient this season.
If you want to fall back on front office knows best, then that's fine. But you're not going to make much of a convincing case to discredit the promise and potential NAW has shown.
tiderulz wrote:ezzzp wrote:tiderulz wrote:they also had Bol Bol going 21, NAW going 24, Cam Johnson 25, Kevin Porter at 20, Johntay Porter 18 (went undrafted). so they arent exactly beacons of correctness.
actually both the Stepien and Schmitz have been very good at evaluating talent - that’s what matters
....that the Stepien has NAW ranked in lower tier only reinforces the Okeke pick for me...as does Schmitz’ praise
go it. Ignore the bad rankings, double down on the ones that you agree with
just having fun here
ezzzp wrote:Bensational wrote:Reckless passer? Sure, he was looking for the flashy play over the smart play more often than not. But this is a kid who came from one of the most well oiled and well groomed systems in college, so let's not try to paint a picture of him as loose cannon. What he did show is that he can step beyond that and serve as lead playmaker who is a threat to shoot, drive or pass at any point.
You called him "super inefficient" before. 43% overall on FG% isn't great, but 80% from FT on 5.75 attempts a game is pretty good. So's 41% from 3 on 8 attempts a game.... I hope Fournier can be that inefficient this season.
If you want to fall back on front office knows best, then that's fine. But you're not going to make much of a convincing case to discredit the promise and potential NAW has shown.
Summer League is not showing he could be a lead playmaker in the NBA. Summer League rosters are composed of 99% players who will NEVER play a single NBA minute, most won't even make G-League squads. AND those units met each other for first time that week so there were no offensive or defensive system running.
"Isn't great" is spin for poor efficiency...and it was actually worse - NAW shot 41% not 43%.
...and shooting 13-32 three's in 4 summer league games vs summer league scrubs is not even remotely close to Fournier shooting a career 37% (760-2051) vs NBA caliber players and done over the course of a full 82 game season.
ezzzp wrote:pepe1991 wrote:NAW had 139 assists to 97 turnovers in second year at college
Okeke had 73 assists to 66 turnovers
So Okeke was actually worst in that deparment
Okeke 59,7% TS to 58,6% NAW, given one is guard and other is wing ,and usage ,it's almost identical, especially knowing NAW averaged 4 points per game more.
Their overall 3 point shooting at college was also similar
Okeke was 88/229 ---38,9%
NAW 116/303 ---38,3%
That's virtually identical percentage, differential is below 0,1%.
Other than that Okeke seems to be Covington type of player , if he pans out.
Okeke's ball skills and shot creativity are limited. He attempted just 3.3 free throws per 40 minutes, a reflection on his predictability with the ball. Okeke could also improve his finishing in crowds, having shot just 18-of-45 on rolls to the basket while making one runner all season. And after he went 4-of-24 on pull-up jumpers, the scouting report will alert defense to close out hard and run him off the three-point line.
On top of all that, he won't play this season
In modern basketball, position doesn't stipulate shot distribution to qualify TS%. Okeke is a versatile forward who plays both on the perimeter and inside. If you look at Okeke vs NAW's shot distribution, they are nearly identical.
The takeaway is that Okeke shot more efficiently from Morey-Ball shot locations.
Here is some of what NBA.com draft analysis page said about Okeke:
"Can put the ball on the floor and attack the rim with deceptive speed and impacts the game in a variety of ways inside. Can post up smaller wings, sneak behind the defense with good timing as a cutter, and make effort plays on the glass. Initiates contact and fights through it to finish, shows good anticipation, and has the explosiveness to finish above the rim pretty effortlessly when he has space to gather. Averaged 1.318 points per finishing opportunity in the half court [83rd percentile]"
You keep saying that Okeke won't play this year...how are you arriving at that when ACL's take 9-12 months to recover? That means sometime between December-February expected return.
is flat out wrong because there is historic evidence that guards have much worst TS% than wings and especially Cs because their shots are always better contested, their drivers always bring more attention and they are trusted to make right plays and take big shots when games are on the line, where most of bigs are nothing but rolling big men who get a ball in lobs or inside 3 feet where at average nba player shoot over 68% and Cs over 70%. Odds are , you simply won't miss lot of dunks.In modern basketball, position doesn't stipulate shot distribution to qualify TS%
tiderulz wrote:except for you know, all the teams 1st and 2nd round picks for the last 2-3 years
ezzzp wrote:Bensational wrote:Reckless passer? Sure, he was looking for the flashy play over the smart play more often than not. But this is a kid who came from one of the most well oiled and well groomed systems in college, so let's not try to paint a picture of him as loose cannon. What he did show is that he can step beyond that and serve as lead playmaker who is a threat to shoot, drive or pass at any point.
You called him "super inefficient" before. 43% overall on FG% isn't great, but 80% from FT on 5.75 attempts a game is pretty good. So's 41% from 3 on 8 attempts a game.... I hope Fournier can be that inefficient this season.
If you want to fall back on front office knows best, then that's fine. But you're not going to make much of a convincing case to discredit the promise and potential NAW has shown.
Summer League is not showing he could be a lead playmaker in the NBA. Summer League rosters are composed of 99% players who will NEVER play a single NBA minute, most won't even make G-League squads. AND those units met each other for first time that week so there were no offensive or defensive system running.
"Isn't great" is spin for poor efficiency...and it was actually worse - NAW shot 41% not 43%.
...and shooting 13-32 three's in 4 summer league games vs summer league scrubs is not even remotely close to Fournier shooting a career 37% (760-2051) vs NBA caliber players and done over the course of a full 82 game season.
pepe1991 wrote: You keep asking where would NAW play, yet never adress fact that Okeke won't play.
You said above in reply that his timetable of return is 9 to 12 months and most positive outcome is him playing as early as this December, yet you keep ignoring that he probably won't even sign contract with Orlando Magic for 2019-20.
pepe1991 wrote:Magic have need at guard position because their guard rotation is:
Augustin - 1 year left contract
Evan Fournier- 1+1 year contract
MCW- 1 year contract
Fultz -1 +1 yeras contract
Ross -new contract
NAW is guard who can shoot, handle ball ,score and pass good enough to be playable . He is probably today automatic upgrade over MCW who isn't "true " PG anyway and who has history of being more harmful than helpful whenever he plays ,minus 12 games for Magic at the end of last season.
pepe1991 wrote:Given their trajcetory, experience and injury , there is virtually zero reasons to belive that Okeke is in any way superior prospect to NAW.
pepe1991 wrote:Above all that Okeke's biggest issue was complete lack of ability to draw fouls, witch happends to be biggest problem with Orlando in general.
pepe1991 wrote:He is also another player who does not have advanced passing skils or ability to play with ball in his hands and create for himself. Another issues Magic are facing on nightly bases.
pepe1991 wrote:Funniest part about Okeke pick is that they drafted player who was same size, weigh, and similar skillset and build like Okeke in Justin Jackson, but he simply couldn't play due injury so they dropped him and replaced with another injuried player.
tiderulz wrote:except for you know, all the teams 1st and 2nd round picks for the last 2-3 years
pepe1991 wrote:Average TS% for guards in nba is around 53%
Average TS for center is 59%
pepe1991 wrote:IF he actually initiated contact as article claims, he would have way more than 1 shooting foul draw per game.
pepe1991 wrote:If he actually did have ability to put ball on the floor he would make more than 4 freaking pull up jumpers whole season. If he was overall more versitale, he would aslo average more than 12 points a game. Especially because he was second year college player. If he actually plays well inside the paint, than he would not shoot 40% in situations as rolling man off screen.
pepe1991 wrote:Until Okeke actually enters nba and shoots some solid amount of shots, on solid percentages, you simply don't know can he actually shoot that well. There is army of wings who on moderate sample size, against college competition and shorter 3 point line looked like great shooters just to turn into players who can't shoot at nba level at all. Hell, few years back Lonzo and Ingram were painted as " amazing shooters"
Bensational wrote:It's not 'spin' for anything. It's an evaluation of 4 games in which NAW showed he was capable of bigger things than he showed on college. He has 2 games shooting over 50% and one terrible game at 21% which dragged his averages down. That's not 'super inefficient' by any means. Super inefficient was what Fournier gave us in the playoffs.
Bensational wrote:Shooting 40% on 8 3fgas a game is a great effort, even in summer league. To paint that as anything but promising is absolutely absurd.
Bensational wrote:NAW would be a prospect for the future, but his game is developed enough that he would emerge in the near future, not long term like Bamba and Isaac. NAW, as a prospect, brings a complete game and a full arsenal of tools.
Bensational wrote:Why would you try to compare the standard of playing against pros to the standard of summer league when NAW hasn't had the chance to play with the pros yet? That doesn't make summer league numbers useless.
Bensational wrote:Fournier played summer league, too. He averaged 14.8ppg on 41% shooting, and 37% from 3 on 6 attempts a game. Suuuuuuper inefficient. And he clearly never went on to have an NBA career
But you know who were the top scorers of his summer league? Lillard, Kawhi, Butler, Tobias and the only outlier being Josh Selby. So in that instance, it was a pretty good indicator of future talent.
ezzzp wrote:Bensational wrote:It's not 'spin' for anything. It's an evaluation of 4 games in which NAW showed he was capable of bigger things than he showed on college. He has 2 games shooting over 50% and one terrible game at 21% which dragged his averages down. That's not 'super inefficient' by any means. Super inefficient was what Fournier gave us in the playoffs.
Its absolutely spin...in no way shape or form is 41% not inefficient. Fournier in worst shooting year of career shot 43.8% vs NBA players. NAW wouldn't even get off the bench vs that Toronto defense.
...and fyi, inconsistency has been knock on NAW, so that up and down vs non-NBA players was normal for him.Bensational wrote:Shooting 40% on 8 3fgas a game is a great effort, even in summer league. To paint that as anything but promising is absolutely absurd.
What is absurd is that you're fine with a microscopic sample size vs non-NBA players and are desperate to discount Fournier's 3P% at high volume sample done vs actual NBA players and NBA conditions.Bensational wrote:NAW would be a prospect for the future, but his game is developed enough that he would emerge in the near future, not long term like Bamba and Isaac. NAW, as a prospect, brings a complete game and a full arsenal of tools.
...and Okeke is also a prospect for the future...and one who draft/NBA analyst and advanced metric's love. On top of the praise many analyst gave Okeke, projection models love him. Kevin Pelton's model projected him to be one of the best in this class. FiveThirtyEight's Carmelo projection thinks he'll be better than NAW:Bensational wrote:Why would you try to compare the standard of playing against pros to the standard of summer league when NAW hasn't had the chance to play with the pros yet? That doesn't make summer league numbers useless.
Why are you trying to pretend that SL numbers are indicators of NBA ability? SL numbers ARE useless and have no relationship to NBA projected performance.Bensational wrote:Fournier played summer league, too. He averaged 14.8ppg on 41% shooting, and 37% from 3 on 6 attempts a game. Suuuuuuper inefficient. And he clearly never went on to have an NBA career
But you know who were the top scorers of his summer league? Lillard, Kawhi, Butler, Tobias and the only outlier being Josh Selby. So in that instance, it was a pretty good indicator of future talent.
...other SL's top scorers:
Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Keith Bogans, Casey Jacobson, Sebastian Telfair, John Lucas, Maurice Ager, Craig Smith, Von Wafer, Alando Tucker, JJ Hickson, Adam Morrison, Sam Young, Jeffrey Taylor, Andrew Goudeleck, Mike Scott, Randy Foye, Marcus Banks, Quincy Douby, Jared Bayless, Anthony Randolph, Anthony Morrow, Reggie Williams, Jordan McRae, Glen Rice Jr, Seth Curry, Trey Lyles, Khris Dunn, Oleksiy Pecherov, Emmanuel Mudiay, Wayne Selden, Troy Williams, Malik Monk, Antonio Blakely....
like I said, it means nothing.
...and just because Fournier sucked in SL, that doesn't mean that NAW will have same trajectory
ezzzp wrote:pepe1991 wrote:Average TS% for guards in nba is around 53%
Average TS for center is 59%
Chuma or NAW won't play PG or Center in the NBA. Here are the relevant positional averages:
Average TS% for a SG is 54%
Average TS% for both SF and PF's is 55%
I'm sure you know that line is blurry for SG-PF in modern position-less basketball where those 3 positions are very fluid.
Plus I already showed you their shot distribution and NAW and Okeke had same volume is same shot locations.pepe1991 wrote:IF he actually initiated contact as article claims, he would have way more than 1 shooting foul draw per game.
Okeke had a .265 FTr, not a big difference from NAW who had a .359 FTr while having the ball in his hands.pepe1991 wrote:If he actually did have ability to put ball on the floor he would make more than 4 freaking pull up jumpers whole season. If he was overall more versitale, he would aslo average more than 12 points a game. Especially because he was second year college player. If he actually plays well inside the paint, than he would not shoot 40% in situations as rolling man off screen.
NAW was 2nd year player also, and he only averaged 16 points a game on 12 FGA's while having ball in his hands and vs easier 7.79 SOS. Okeke scored 12 points on 9 FGA's and he did it vs 12.09 SOS.pepe1991 wrote:Until Okeke actually enters nba and shoots some solid amount of shots, on solid percentages, you simply don't know can he actually shoot that well. There is army of wings who on moderate sample size, against college competition and shorter 3 point line looked like great shooters just to turn into players who can't shoot at nba level at all. Hell, few years back Lonzo and Ingram were painted as " amazing shooters"
You can say the exact same thing about NAW.
Bensational wrote:The only spin going on here is you trying to paint a picture that NAW doesn't look promising whilst praising every thing Fournier does - even if it's the same or worse.
It will be interesting to revisit this in a couple of seasons.
ezzzp wrote:
Magic_Johnny12 wrote:ezzzp wrote:
Call me crazy, but he has a poor mans Kawhi game in him. Looks like a rich mans Tobias Harris.
If Chuma didn't get injured he may of catapulted into the top 10.yoyojw17 wrote:Magic_Johnny12 wrote:ezzzp wrote:
Call me crazy, but he has a poor mans Kawhi game in him. Looks like a rich mans Tobias Harris.
For your coach to cry on national television because of your injury.... you must be some special kind of individual. And the way that his teammates rallied around him.
Read that some thought that Auburn would have taken the tournament if he didn't get injured. Might not look sexy but he seems like a difference-maker on the court.