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Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1941 » by Knightro » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:43 am

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1942 » by Knightro » Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:15 pm

^ Pretty interesting article from The Ringer.

Probably as optimistic of a piece as you'll find on the Magic this offseason. Tjarks is clearly very bullish on Gordon and Isaac.

Throw in the possibility of Fultz and Bamba making similar leaps to what Isaac made...
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1943 » by Def Swami » Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:47 pm

Too much preseason hype between Kevin Pelton and Jonathan Tjarks for my liking. While this is the most interested I've been in a Magic season since maybe '11-'12, I'm always a bit weary of the media hype train becoming a jinx.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1944 » by tiderulz » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:35 pm

Knightro wrote:^ Pretty interesting article from The Ringer.

Probably as optimistic of a piece as you'll find on the Magic this offseason. Tjarks is clearly very bullish on Gordon and Isaac.

Throw in the possibility of Fultz and Bamba making similar leaps to what Isaac made...

one thing i disagree on in the piece, Gordon isnt exactly tall and long compared to other forwards. 6'8.5 with just under 7' wingspan is good, but not exceptional. Isaac's measurements are better, and neither are what i would call overly skilled.

and they talked about Isaac's defense on Siakam, but Siakam put up 22+ ppg in that series.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1945 » by Optimus_Steel » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:38 pm

Knightro wrote:^ Pretty interesting article from The Ringer.

Probably as optimistic of a piece as you'll find on the Magic this offseason. Tjarks is clearly very bullish on Gordon and Isaac.

Throw in the possibility of Fultz and Bamba making similar leaps to what Isaac made...


Add, hopefully Evan getting his shooting averages back to his career average would be huge for this season.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1946 » by Xatticus » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:42 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Bensational wrote:
If Vuc's 16-17 season at 44.6%efg with 0.80ppp is efficient, then AG's 18-19 season should also be considered efficient, since it more or less matches that. (42%efg but 0.84ppp on fewer possessions, and a similar percentile ranking).

Similarly, in AG's 17-18 season he put up very similar numbers to what Vuc put up last season. 0.91ppp on 47.3%efg for AG and 0.94ppp on 49.4%efg.

In which case, AG would then have 2 efficient seasons out of those 4, which would mean he hasn't been 'awful'. Or, AG has been awful, and Vuc hasn't been that good either. Point being, there isn't an inseparable rift between the numbers of the two.


Volume matters, all you have to do is look at league-wide percentile ranking and PPP to see that it requires volume to glean anything from it...otherwise Luol Deng and Daniel Theis would be the best post up players in the NBA since they are at the top 99-100 percentile and have a PPP of 1.56 and 1.54.

Vucevic's volume has been 2-4 times greater than Gordon's.

On top of that, you have to add context.

Vucevic faces double teams most post ups + is usually defended by C's (many who are defensive anchors for their team). Plays are often run with him as the primary facilitator from the post, so teams focus their defense at him. AG posts when he has a mismatch; and if he happens to get caught outside of the restricted area defenses beg him to shoot it.

Also, .420 eFG% is NOT more-or-less .446 eFG%. That's like saying that Vucevic's .364 3P% is more-or-less the same as Terrence Ross' .383 3P%.

In the 4 years the post-up has been tracked by the NBA:

Gordon 378 poss @ 42.4 eFG%
Vucevic 1,238 poss @ 45.9 eFG%

That's 860 more possessions, under much more duress, and at a considerably higher %.

Vucevic is one of the better post up players in the NBA. Its why he gets that type of volume down there (see below). If he was able to draw fouls down there that would catapult him into a completely other level.

Players who received at least 300 post ups last season:

Image

and if you want a wider margin (at least 200 post ups):

Spoiler:
Image


Volume is volume. Efficiency is efficiency. You don't get bonus points for volume unless your efficiency is good.

Vucevic was in the 50th percentile because he doesn't draw fouls. This was in a "good" year and in an era where offenses are dominated by perimeter ball handlers.

It's exceptionally unlikely that Vucevic will improve his FTr at this point in his career. He rocks his defender off balance and launches sneak attacks over either shoulder. He isn't physical. He doesn't use a dribble to advance his post position after he catches the ball and he doesn't use fakes to get his man into the air. He basically just tries to get his shot up before the defender can react.

Volume just isn't the right conversation to have here. Neither player was efficient enough in such situations that we should discuss the merits of volume. The conversation should be about improving efficiency and we should be more discriminate in how we utilize Vucevic's post up game. I loathe when he calls for the ball when he is posting someone up well outside of the paint.

I've always been of the opinion that a big has to earn their touches. If they want touches, they have to beat their man down the floor to get good position early in the set. I hate wasting shot clock only to have a big catch the ball 12 feet from the basket.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1947 » by pepe1991 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:00 pm

Ringer's article is ridiculous.
It's written like payed advertisement. And probably is one.

Actually main reason why he overhypes Isaac is because Isaac before draft agreed to do exclusive interview with him :lol:

I mean , guy went to such a lenghts to tell readers that 7 footer will be in physical prime in 2025, in case he doesn't break out, so he has night leeway to nobody trolls him about it. :lol:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1948 » by drsd » Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:28 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Ringer's article is ridiculous.



Let me follow the thought lines:
Doubling down on a 42-win team doesn’t create much offseason buzz, but the Magic didn’t really have a choice.

Personally I agree.

The biggest reasons to be optimistic about the Magic are their starting forwards, Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.

I think many fans would agree with that. Certainly winning more than 42 games, one could expect efficiency improvements from Gordon and Isaac.

Gordon has already transformed himself in the NBA.

"Transformed" is a big word. I think he has shown steady improvement. Is it "transformation"? For me the answer is No.

Gordon can do everything else on the court well.

The narrative that Gordon is becoming a very good passer is evident in his well above average apg stat line.

The result is that Gordon is now one of the most well-rounded players in the league.

Not sure there is an objective criteria for this. But the story does pull out some quotes to support the narrative.

Isaac might have even more upside just based on his size. For one thing, he’s still growing.

Most here will agree with these two points.

After a disappointing rookie season during which he injured his ankle and played in only 27 games, Isaac established himself as a starting-caliber player last season.

I (almost) agree. I think a starting caliber forward should be averaging more than 10 ppg, and Isaac did not do that. But he should this year.

Isaac showed his defensive potential in the Magic’s first-round playoff series against the Raptors.

There is a point where "potential" will not cut it. We fans need in-game performance, not Hope.

The biggest issue for Isaac was core strength, as both Siakam and Kawhi were able to get under him and knock him off balance.

The is a whole discussion line on this this week.

More strength will help Isaac on offense as well.

I agree.

Isaac could do more if he were in a different role on a less-talented team: He had a usage rate of only 16.3 last season.

Well, all good players can jack up their stat lines in high-usage situations that cone from playing on a bad team. No narrative for me in this idea.

Orlando has the offensive structure around Isaac and Gordon to allow them to keep growing into bigger roles over time.

One can expect Gordon and Isaac to get more coaches next season, so I agree.

To be sure, the Magic will probably never get out of the first round if those three are some of their primary options on offense.

It is a guard's league after all. I agree.

For now, Orlando can hang its hat on defense.

I agree.

The Magic were killed by the back end of their rotation in the first half of the season.

I agree.

To be sure, the Magic are nowhere near the fourth-best team in the NBA.

I agree.

The biggest variable in projecting the Magic next season is determining how they’ll balance winning and development.

Well, so long as Coach Clifford has the reigns, I see no discussion. The Magic will only prioritise winning.

The good news for Orlando is that it doesn’t have to give its other young players minutes with Gordon and Isaac around.

Injuries will make this a false point. Depth is always critical.

The Magic are far more equipped to manage that balance than they were earlier in the decade.

I agree. The Magic has good depth this season, at least on paper.

The Magic didn’t put a ceiling on themselves with their moves this offseason.

I agree. And I am very happy to state that.


...


So in conclusion, I do not find that Ringer's article is ridiculous.


..
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1949 » by ezzzp » Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:48 pm

Xatticus wrote:Volume is volume. Efficiency is efficiency. You don't get bonus points for volume unless your efficiency is good.

Vucevic was in the 50th percentile because he doesn't draw fouls. This was in a "good" year and in an era where offenses are dominated by perimeter ball handlers.

It's exceptionally unlikely that Vucevic will improve his FTr at this point in his career. He rocks his defender off balance and launches sneak attacks over either shoulder. He isn't physical. He doesn't use a dribble to advance his post position after he catches the ball and he doesn't use fakes to get his man into the air. He basically just tries to get his shot up before the defender can react.

Volume just isn't the right conversation to have here. Neither player was efficient enough in such situations that we should discuss the merits of volume. The conversation should be about improving efficiency and we should be more discriminate in how we utilize Vucevic's post up game. I loathe when he calls for the ball when he is posting someone up well outside of the paint.

I've always been of the opinion that a big has to earn their touches. If they want touches, they have to beat their man down the floor to get good position early in the set. I hate wasting shot clock only to have a big catch the ball 12 feet from the basket.


Volume and efficiency go hand in hand...ignoring that relationship ignores the dynamic that allows an accurate gauge of impact a player has in that type of possession.

But you absolutely do get "bonus points" for volume. Volume indicates a system trust in the capacity of that player to execute in that type of possession. Once you add the type of possession it is and team context to that, then volume definitely matters.

Again, "percentile" requires a volume context AND a system context. It is NOT an accurate measure of efficiency in this particular type of possession. It is an indicator of (PPP) Points Per Post-Up Possessions which excludes facilitation - a major part of how post-up play functions for Vucevic in Orlando. FG% is how you measure FGA efficiency, not every post-up is a FGA. In fact, last season for Vucevic about 20% of his post-ups did not end with a FGA.

If a team runs their offense through a post facilitator, like Orlando does through Vucevic, then a large amount of those post-up possessions become passes...hence less points per possession which is what "percentile" is based on.

For Orlando, Vucevic's post-up possessions were a substantial part of Clifford's inside-out system. They were a key action that bent defenses and triggered much of the offensive system design. When Vucevic did take a FGA in that type of possession, he finished that play at 49.4 FG%, which is efficient. If he drew more fouls there, he'd be at an entirely other tier in the NBA...but that doesn't mean he's ineffective in post play.

Daniel Theis and Luol Deng are in the top 99-100 percentile of the NBA at post-up possessions. That does NOT mean that they are the best post-up players in the NBA. Having a volume and team context matters. Just because Luol Deng scored 1.56 ppp in 16 post-up possessions does not mean that his team can or want to run that play with him consistently. They know that once reality hits with volume and defensive adjustments that play will fail and produce an absolutely terrible system.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1950 » by ezzzp » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:42 pm

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Expectations are growing for this team.

Because its summer down time, a lot of media analysts are starting to look at the numbers from last year and some are pointing out the Magic. In particular the defensive side of the equation. For many, they are finally seeing in-depth how the Magic got to the playoffs. When they see the balance of emerging youth and young vets at peak prime, then its not such a big gamble to say that the team could take another step forward.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1951 » by pepe1991 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:42 pm

To drsd, to not have page long reply.

They couldn’t afford to step back after making their first playoff appearance in seven seasons, so they re-signed Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross and added Al-Farouq Aminu

This is true but also tells you a lot about ability of Gordon and Isaac and trust they can "take over" from Vuc and Ross. Magic could find cheaper solutions if they 100% belive Gordon and Isaac are next big thing.

There aren’t many pairs of forwards in the league with their length, athleticism, skill, and basketball IQ. It can take players their size (Gordon is 6-foot-9 and Isaac is 6-foot-11) a long time to fully grow into their bodies and round out their games. They could be late bloomers who blossom into All-Star-caliber players over the next few seasons.

Average nba player is 6'7 inches tall. Gordon is not bigger than most SFs or PFs, he is average as it gets there.
They could be late bloomer, or they could be what we have evidence to supports what they are. Role player. But it doesn't fit his article so he goes out of limb and leaps into "hope" after 3 paragraph of article . But that's just start.

Gordon has already transformed himself in the NBA. He became a consistent 3-point shooter (34.9 percent from 3 on 4.4 attempts per game last season) after entering the league as a nonshooter (27.1 percent from 3 on 1.0 attempts per game as a rookie). The change allowed him to avoid the fate of a number of big and athletic wings with poor jumpers who have flamed out in recent years, such as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Stanley Johnson, and Josh Jackson.


So he ain't bust and that means he is great, according to writer. He literally compared him with some of the biggest busts out there to make point for him.
Btw 34,9 for 3 is still average to bit below average.

Gordon can do everything else on the court well. After averaging a career high in points two seasons ago, Gordon made another important leap last season: He became a legitimate playmaker, averaging a career high in assists (3.7 per game) while barely increasing his turnovers (2.1 per game).

Most of his passes are simple ballswings. Ratio of potential assists to actual assists paints perfect picture of player who wasn't playmaker, just player who made right passes, mostly passing to Vučević.
For somebody who averaged 21-12-4 Vučević was mentioned once in whole article, but it's Ringer so you can't expect high quality after all.

The result is that Gordon is now one of the most well-rounded players in the league.

This is based on fact that he is:
average rebounder
average shooter
below average in efficiency
mediocre shooter
does not draw fouls

The only players to average as many points, rebounds, assists, steals, and 3-point attempts per game last season as Gordon are Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns.

But when you click on it, there are more players that are there . Also Randle , Vučević, Harden , Nikola JOkić, are just guys on top of my head that fit 16-7-3 criteria and are not there.

Now Isaac

He could keep getting better every season for the next seven to eight years. Many 7-footers don’t fully develop physically until they are in their late 20s. Isaac will turn 28 in October 2025.


How is this relevant for 3rd year player ? " Listen Pelicans fans, you should not expect anything from Zion since his prime is 2029" . It's garbage writing. by the 2025 , Isaac probably won't even play on Magic as he will finish his second contract. Also when i say probably it means 99% won't. Today Curry is longest active player on same team ( 10 years ).

Isaac established himself as a starting-caliber player last season. He was a defensive specialist who did just enough on offense to stay on the floor, averaging 9.6 points per game on 42.9 percent shooting, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game.

How is any of this "establishing" as starting PF? Same guy who called out MKG above calls player who averaged less: points, rebound and assists than MKG at age of 22 starting PF, but uses MKG in context of bust. Double standards much?

He doesn’t have quite as much lateral quickness as Gordon, but he’s still freakishly athletic for a player his size. Isaac is one of only 13 players in the NBA last season to average at least 0.8 steals and 1.2 blocks per game, and one of only three (along with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jerami Grant) who don’t primarily play center.

Again cherry picking stats. back to that " xy is only player who dunked in transition while having one shoe in blue , other in green while having tattoo of lion on his forhead" achivment.

He’s a developing shooter (32.3 percent from 3 on 3.5 attempts per game, 81.5 percent from the free throw line on 1.8 attempts per game) who can put the ball on the floor and make plays on the move.

Developing could be replaced by " below average and worst than in rookie year" and nobody who watched any Magic games will claim he can put ball on the floor or that he does it often. Literally guy scored 85% of all points with 0 dribbles. I highly doubt he watched enough of Magic to see other 15%.

Isaac could do more if he were in a different role on a less-talented team: He had a usage rate of only 16.3 last season. Still, he has shown flashes of scoring ability, with 14 games of 15 points or more

When? 15 times in 107 games he scored 15 or more. .
He scored 18 or more 4 times.
He couldn't even average 15 at college.


And for last evidence of writer never actually watching Magic you have this nugget

Fournier is one of the NBA’s more well-rounded shooting specialists.


Fournier is everything but shooting specialist. he is most of the nights Magic facilitator, Magic ballhandler, second option on offense and at the end, he just happends to be guy who makes nice volumen of shots.
The hope is that the trio will gradually take a step back as Gordon and Isaac take a step forward

That step , given what we see in 5 and 2 seasons of them ,would for sure be step in lottery. Especially with Gordon and 2017-18 season as best example of what happends to a team when he starts running offense.

Magic are type of team that would collapse to 20 wins if Vučević gets hurt because every single offensive set is runned around him.
Instad of getting any coverage from media, as NBA media usually does, they overhype ,overrate and ride juice of young players and paint them as future hall of famers. That's why " new Ingram" Durant, "40 inch vertical Steph Curry" - Lonzo , " new Porzingis" - Bender and many, many many other young players were so laughablly overhyped in last couple of years.
I remember times when writers guaranteed that WSC will win at least one DPOY.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1952 » by ezzzp » Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:06 pm

The good news for Orlando is that it doesn’t have to give its other young players minutes with Gordon and Isaac around. The roster would still have a ton of promise if the Magic focused on surrounding their two under-25 year-old forwards with veterans. Anything they get from Bamba or Fultz will be a bonus. And then there’s Chuma Okeke, an intriguing combo forward drafted at no. 17 this year’s draft who will miss this season while recovering from a torn ACL. Clifford can make the rest of the franchise’s youth movement learn good habits instead of force-feeding them minutes without being able to hold them accountable for their mistakes. What he did with Isaac last season should be the model. A young player doesn’t have to look like a star right away on a playoff team. He just has to do enough so he can stay on the court and not bring the rest of the team down.


The Magic didn’t put a ceiling on themselves with their moves this offseason. They gave themselves a floor. There is now a structure in place that will allow them to develop some extremely talented young players. This could be a team of the future in the Eastern Conference.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1953 » by Xatticus » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:06 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Xatticus wrote:Volume is volume. Efficiency is efficiency. You don't get bonus points for volume unless your efficiency is good.

Vucevic was in the 50th percentile because he doesn't draw fouls. This was in a "good" year and in an era where offenses are dominated by perimeter ball handlers.

It's exceptionally unlikely that Vucevic will improve his FTr at this point in his career. He rocks his defender off balance and launches sneak attacks over either shoulder. He isn't physical. He doesn't use a dribble to advance his post position after he catches the ball and he doesn't use fakes to get his man into the air. He basically just tries to get his shot up before the defender can react.

Volume just isn't the right conversation to have here. Neither player was efficient enough in such situations that we should discuss the merits of volume. The conversation should be about improving efficiency and we should be more discriminate in how we utilize Vucevic's post up game. I loathe when he calls for the ball when he is posting someone up well outside of the paint.

I've always been of the opinion that a big has to earn their touches. If they want touches, they have to beat their man down the floor to get good position early in the set. I hate wasting shot clock only to have a big catch the ball 12 feet from the basket.


Volume and efficiency go hand in hand...ignoring that relationship ignores the dynamic that allows an accurate gauge of impact a player has in that type of possession.

But you absolutely do get "bonus points" for volume. Volume indicates a system trust in the capacity of that player to execute in that type of possession. Once you add the type of possession it is and team context to that, then volume definitely matters.

Again, "percentile" requires a volume context AND a system context. It is NOT an accurate measure of efficiency in this particular type of possession. It is an indicator of (PPP) Points Per Post-Up Possessions which excludes facilitation - a major part of how post-up play functions for Vucevic in Orlando. FG% is how you measure FGA efficiency, not every post-up is a FGA. In fact, last season for Vucevic about 20% of his post-ups did not end with a FGA.

If a team runs their offense through a post facilitator, like Orlando does through Vucevic, then a large amount of those post-up possessions become passes...hence less points per possession which is what "percentile" is based on.

For Orlando, Vucevic's post-up possessions were a substantial part of Clifford's inside-out system. They were a key action that bent defenses and triggered much of the offensive system design. When Vucevic did take a FGA in that type of possession, he finished that play at 49.4 FG%, which is efficient. If he drew more fouls there, he'd be at an entirely other tier in the NBA...but that doesn't mean he's ineffective in post play.

Daniel Theis and Luol Deng are in the top 99-100 percentile of the NBA at post-up possessions. That does NOT mean that they are the best post-up players in the NBA. Having a volume and team context matters. Just because Luol Deng scored 1.56 ppp in 16 post-up possessions does not mean that his team can or want to run that play with him consistently. They know that once reality hits with volume and defensive adjustments that play will fail and produce an absolutely terrible system.


They don’t go hand in hand. You are trying to conflate two statistics that measure very different things. Efficiency really does measure efficiency.

Vucevic was in the 52nd percentile in field goal efficiency on post ups. That’s not good. That means that out of 100 random NBA post players, you would expect that 48 would have a higher field goal efficiency on post up plays. All those passes though…

He was in the 18th percentile for free throw rate on post ups. This means that a Vucevic field goal attempt from the post was almost certainly a below average field goal attempt relative to all other NBA post players. I’m not going to calculate the entire list, but I can tell you that only Andre Drummond, Marvin Bagley III, and Russell Westbrook finished with fewer points per field goal attempt among the top 20 players in post up field goal attempts. So yeah… Vucevic was somewhere around the 20th percentile in points per shot among the top 20 players in post up field goal attempts. This is probably a little misleading due to the nature of how field goal attempts are tracked, but it’s safe to say that it isn’t a good shot for our offense.

The list you provided was purposively pared down to paint a more flattering portrayal of Vucevic’s efficiency on post ups. You filtered by volume to cut the list down to seven players and then listed those seven players by eFG%. Though Vucevic was sixth among them in eFG%, he was actually dead last in TS% because he doesn’t get to the free throw line. It was essentially just a list of guys that took a lot of field goal attempts on post ups and Vucevic was the least efficient scorer among them. He sure did take a lot of them though.

You can’t just pick random names off of the list to move Vucevic into a higher percentile. Statistics doesn’t work that way. Some players might have sample size concerns, but Vucevic certainly doesn’t. And sample size concerns apply across the spectrum. It simply means that the statistics for players with small sample sizes might not be reflective of their true means, but this would apply to the players all across the spectrum. For every Deng or Theis, there is someone at the other end of the spectrum.

Every team in history has had a player that led the team in field goal attempts. It’s really impossible to get around it. I’m old enough to remember the inaugural season when Terry Catledge and Reggie Theus were bending defenses while indicating system trust in their abilities to execute. We sure did suck back then (20th out of 27 in ORtg)… nothing like now (22nd of 30).

There is good news though. Clifford might understand all of this already. We know that he talked to Vucevic about working on his 3-point shot this summer. If we can trade a healthy share of those post ups for 3-point field goal attempts next year, we should be better for it. If Brook Lopez could figure it out, there must be some hope for Vucevic.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1954 » by PrimeThyme » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:28 pm

I knew that article would trigger pepe the second I read it :lol:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1955 » by ezzzp » Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:29 am

Xatticus wrote:They don’t go hand in hand. You are trying to conflate two statistics that measure very different things. Efficiency really does measure efficiency.


They do. You need one to contextualize the other, and you need both to construct a realistic analysis. 50% on 2 FGA's is not the same as 50% on 100 FGA's. You need to know the volume (sample size) to establish how meaningful that % is.

Xatticus wrote:Vucevic was in the 52nd percentile in field goal efficiency on post ups. That’s not good. That means that out of 100 random NBA post players, you would expect that 48 would have a higher field goal efficiency on post up plays. All those passes though…


Nah. Again, for post-up possessions, "percentile" is not measuring FGA efficiency. One post-up possession does not equal one FGA. 20% of Vucevic's post-up possessions were not even FGA's.

Synergy's "percentile" rank uses points per possession to establish rank. BUT, play types don't all have the same relationship between points and possession. For example, one PnR rim-run possession will almost always result in a FGA for that player; but a PnR ball-handler possession only sometimes produces a FGA for the player. Same thing with a post-up possession, it only sometimes results in a FGA.

So a PnR ball-handler or a Post-Up player can have a low PPP (and thus low percentile rank) if they facilitate frequently in that type of play. Meanwhile a player that doesn't have the ability to facilitate in that type of play can have a higher PPP just because of the ratio of FGA to possessions - not because they are more efficient.

Xatticus wrote:He was in the 18th percentile for free throw rate on post ups.


There were 521 NBA players in the NBA last season, only 195 players met Synergy's minimum 10 total post-up possession criteria. So your calculation is missing more than 60% of the entire NBA.

Xatticus wrote:This means that a Vucevic field goal attempt from the post was almost certainly a below average field goal attempt relative to all other NBA post players. I’m not going to calculate the entire list, but I can tell you that only Andre Drummond, Marvin Bagley III, and Russell Westbrook finished with fewer points per field goal attempt among the top 20 players in post up field goal attempts. So yeah… Vucevic was somewhere around the 20th percentile in points per shot among the top 20 players in post up field goal attempts. This is probably a little misleading due to the nature of how field goal attempts are tracked, but it’s safe to say that it isn’t a good shot for our offense.


Vucevic's PTS per FGA in the post was 1.14, which is considered efficient. Its not elite, but its a solid number...one accomplished at volume AND in a facilitator role.

The guys who are at elite efficiency at volume in the post are on max $ contracts. As I stated earlier, if Vucevic had a higher FTr in the post, he would be at an entirely other level, but he would also be getting paid like those guys.

Spoiler:
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The Vucevic post-up is an efficient half court play, one that creates opportunities and wide open looks for higher value FGA's. It is a good play for the Magic

Btw, Aaron Gordon was at 1.05 PTS per post FGA, and his was at much less volume and not in a post facilitator role.

Xatticus wrote:Clifford might understand all of this already. We know that he talked to Vucevic about working on his 3-point shot this summer. If we can trade a healthy share of those post ups for 3-point field goal attempts next year, we should be better for it. If Brook Lopez could figure it out, there must be some hope for Vucevic.


I doubt that Clifford is talking about transferring Vucevic's post volume to the 3pt line. His system, like most, is based on touching the paint to create the initial defensive bend. Right now Vucevic post-ups are how that is accomplished for a good chunk of the Magic's possessions. On nights when the team is not shooting well, or if he needs a bucket, that's Clifford's go-to half court play.

I don't see that changing unless someone steps up as better and equally consistent lane penetration option. Maybe that's Fultz, but who knows.

I think Clifford was talking about shifting more of his mid range volume out further behind the line. In a lot of PnR/Pop-like actions, which are also key for the Magic's inside/out game, Vucevic too frequently doesn't stretch out enough and instead hovers in that middle ground.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1956 » by Skybox » Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:28 am

PrimeThyme wrote:I knew that article would trigger pepe the second I read it :lol:


The Grinch :evil:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1957 » by pepe1991 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:15 am

PrimeThyme wrote:I knew that article would trigger pepe the second I read it :lol:


He just copy pasted his article about Isaac from 2016 where he compared him to Brandon Ingram and blamed college system that holds him down.

He even posted videos of some one legged floaters that would make every coach lose mind ,and called them gorgeous .

https://www.theringer.com/2016/12/15/16036388/jonathan-isaac-is-an-elite-nba-prospect-hiding-in-plain-sight-cef54ab82d4

There is article
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1958 » by Popsicle1228 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:07 pm

Man, so many are always picking on Pepe for his perceived pessimistic view points. While I do not always agree with his post, I really enjoy the balance his point of view provides to the forum. If we all thought the same this place would be a very boring place to visit. I read more than I post, but the reason I come here is for the diversity of opinions.

Pepe, I apologize if I am misjudging you, but I think that Pepe is one of those people who likes to temper his expectations so he is not disappointed, but will be pleasantly surprised when things go well. He is obviously a fan who wants the same thing we all want which is for the Magic to be successful. All said, I enjoy the balance his post provide even if it kills my buzz from time to time. :lol:

P.S. I apologize for the psychoanalysis of somebody I have never met, but it is the slow part of the offseason and riveting topics are thin at the moment.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1959 » by thelead » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:37 pm

The word count on some of these posts... what the hell do you all do for a living to have the time to write novels?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1960 » by Popsicle1228 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:41 pm

thelead wrote:The word count on some of these posts... what the hell do you all do for a living to have the time to write novels?


This is why I post rarely. I enjoy reading some debates, but generally don’t have time to engage in long form.

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