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Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1981 » by MagicMatic » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:50 pm

The Real Dalic wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Popsicle1228 wrote:Man, so many are always picking on Pepe for his perceived pessimistic view points. While I do not always agree with his post, I really enjoy the balance his point of view provides to the forum. If we all thought the same this place would be a very boring place to visit. I read more than I post, but the reason I come here is for the diversity of opinions.

Pepe, I apologize if I am misjudging you, but I think that Pepe is one of those people who likes to temper his expectations so he is not disappointed, but will be pleasantly surprised when things go well. He is obviously a fan who wants the same thing we all want which is for the Magic to be successful. All said, I enjoy the balance his post provide even if it kills my buzz from time to time. :lol:

P.S. I apologize for the psychoanalysis of somebody I have never met, but it is the slow part of the offseason and riveting topics are thin at the moment.


Rarely do I agree with pepe’s posts, but I can’t say that I don’t blame him AT ALL for being skeptical most of the time. This organization has made a TON of questionable decisions and moves in the last decade largely of irrelevancy. A lot of people on this forum have left because this isn’t an echo chamber of people that exude positivity 100% of the time and back every single move the FO makes or doesn’t. There’s plenty of that on the Discord or Reddit. I like this place because it encourages discussion.

Regardless of how pepe spins his pov, I would much rather have him around than the alternative. I could say that about most posters here.

It's great to have opposing views. That's what forums like this one was made for. Healhty debates and talking about things you love with people of all kinds of viewpoints. However, the reason people left was not because of negativity. There's always been people like that, like Adonis, for example. But it's the constant negativity and beating the negativity into people that's a turn off.

There are people in here that could say stuff like "I'm glad Vuc is here to stay and I like the contract he signed for!" And people would respond with "You're glad we're a treadmill team with no future or cap flexibility?" It's happened to me plenty of times here already. It's also really dishonest and putting words in peoples mouths. People like to debate in bad faith from time-to-time just due to being angry and salty that things didn't go the way they wanted.

Everyone here is up for good healthy debates about anything, but we don't want to hear how people think they're so much smarter than everyone else and that we're stupid sheeple for thinking one way or another.


I think people get both sides of the debate. They would be dense not to at least take into account the other side. Both sides aren’t necessarily wrong. Meaning you could be happy for Vuc’s deal and also hate the direction the organization is going. It doesn’t make either perspective incorrect. Whether or not people decide to make or take things personally is up to them entirely. I sincerely doubt people are debating “in bad faith” just to piss people off. There are much easier avenues (political etc.) for that kind of behavior. People wouldn’t spend a ton of time devoting paragraphs of responses if they didn’t actually believe what they were writing. Then again, maybe I’m giving people the benefit of the doubt.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1982 » by Popsicle1228 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:52 pm

So, Dwight to the Lakers. Do we care?

I be lying if I didn’t say it bothers me a bit. I do not think it would if Shaq hadn’t won a championship there. Call it sour grapes (and it likely is), but I would hate to see both of the Magic’s best big men in history win a championship with the Laker organization.

On the bright side if gives me a reason to watch more NBA games and root heavily against them this season.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1983 » by tiderulz » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:18 am

Popsicle1228 wrote:So, Dwight to the Lakers. Do we care?

I be lying if I didn’t say it bothers me a bit. I do not think it would if Shaq hadn’t won a championship there. Call it sour grapes (and it likely is), but I would hate to see both of the Magic’s best big men in history win a championship with the Laker organization.

On the bright side if gives me a reason to watch more NBA games and root heavily against them this season.

dont care. And i dont think they win. either Lebron or AD will have another injury this year
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1984 » by Popsicle1228 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:54 am

tiderulz wrote:
Popsicle1228 wrote:So, Dwight to the Lakers. Do we care?

I be lying if I didn’t say it bothers me a bit. I do not think it would if Shaq hadn’t won a championship there. Call it sour grapes (and it likely is), but I would hate to see both of the Magic’s best big men in history win a championship with the Laker organization.

On the bright side if gives me a reason to watch more NBA games and root heavily against them this season.

dont care. And i dont think they win. either Lebron or AD will have another injury this year


You are a better person than I am.

I personally have never gotten over Shaq bolting. I was 12 when it happened and It impacted me so much I vividly remember what I was doing the day he became a Laker. Silly I know as it is just basketball and there are much more important things in life. However, when I was 12, little was more important than the Magic, and my tiny 12 year old brain couldn’t process him leaving like it would as an adult. As I said before, if it were not for that 1996 off-season, I likely wouldn’t care.

As far as the Lakers winning it all I agree with you. if I were forced place a bet, I doubt the Lakers make it to the Finals. Nevertheless, it is notoriously difficult to fully discount a Lebron led team. The question for me becomes, is this the year Father Time begins to seriously degrade Lebron’s game, or does he come back with a massive chip on his shoulder after a lackluster season in which he was heavily criticized for for “going Hollywood” instead of focusing on winning basketball games?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1985 » by Xatticus » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:17 am

ezzzp wrote:
Xatticus wrote:They don’t go hand in hand. You are trying to conflate two statistics that measure very different things. Efficiency really does measure efficiency.


They do. You need one to contextualize the other, and you need both to construct a realistic analysis. 50% on 2 FGA's is not the same as 50% on 100 FGA's. You need to know the volume (sample size) to establish how meaningful that % is.


This would be relevant if Vucevic had attempted two shots on the season. Vucevic's sample is robust. The data set is robust.

It is exceptionally dubious in statistics to remove any data. It is essentially reserved exclusively for incomplete entries. That said, your removal of data does nothing to advance your cause. You pared down the list to seven players and that landed Vucevic in the 14th percentile in efficiency. Great.

You really misunderstand statistics in its entirety. You seem to be of the opinion that statistics is the mangling of data sets to contrive a short hierarchical list that fits an agenda.

ezzzp wrote:
Xatticus wrote:Vucevic was in the 52nd percentile in field goal efficiency on post ups. That’s not good. That means that out of 100 random NBA post players, you would expect that 48 would have a higher field goal efficiency on post up plays. All those passes though…


Nah. Again, for post-up possessions, "percentile" is not measuring FGA efficiency. One post-up possession does not equal one FGA. 20% of Vucevic's post-up possessions were not even FGA's.

Synergy's "percentile" rank uses points per possession to establish rank. BUT, play types don't all have the same relationship between points and possession. For example, one PnR rim-run possession will almost always result in a FGA for that player; but a PnR ball-handler possession only sometimes produces a FGA for the player. Same thing with a post-up possession, it only sometimes results in a FGA.

So a PnR ball-handler or a Post-Up player can have a low PPP (and thus low percentile rank) if they facilitate frequently in that type of play. Meanwhile a player that doesn't have the ability to facilitate in that type of play can have a higher PPP just because of the ratio of FGA to possessions - not because they are more efficient.


Yes. Again... I will walk you through it this time to avoid confusion.

Percentile = 1 - (x/n)

x = Vucevic's rank in eFG% among the population
n = population size

1 - (93/195) = 52nd percentile

This has NOTHING to do with PPP insofar as eFG% has nothing to do with PPP, though this is a rather absurd statement on its face. His percentiles in eFG% and PPP are very similar because your rationalization is of little consequence whether or not it has any merit whatsoever.

ezzzp wrote:
Xatticus wrote:He was in the 18th percentile for free throw rate on post ups.


There were 521 NBA players in the NBA last season, only 195 players met Synergy's minimum 10 total post-up possession criteria. So your calculation is missing more than 60% of the entire NBA.


There is so much wrong with these two sentences. Instead of diving into that though, I will simply ask you a question. Given your newfound concerns with the completeness of data sets, why would you believe that paring the data set population down to seven entries would then be defensible?

ezzzp wrote:
Xatticus wrote:This means that a Vucevic field goal attempt from the post was almost certainly a below average field goal attempt relative to all other NBA post players. I’m not going to calculate the entire list, but I can tell you that only Andre Drummond, Marvin Bagley III, and Russell Westbrook finished with fewer points per field goal attempt among the top 20 players in post up field goal attempts. So yeah… Vucevic was somewhere around the 20th percentile in points per shot among the top 20 players in post up field goal attempts. This is probably a little misleading due to the nature of how field goal attempts are tracked, but it’s safe to say that it isn’t a good shot for our offense.


Vucevic's PTS per FGA in the post was 1.14, which is considered efficient. Its not elite, but its a solid number...one accomplished at volume AND in a facilitator role.

The guys who are at elite efficiency at volume in the post are on max $ contracts. As I stated earlier, if Vucevic had a higher FTr in the post, he would be at an entirely other level, but he would also be getting paid like those guys.

Spoiler:
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The Vucevic post-up is an efficient half court play, one that creates opportunities and wide open looks for higher value FGA's. It is a good play for the Magic

Btw, Aaron Gordon was at 1.05 PTS per post FGA, and his was at much less volume and not in a post facilitator role.


How is 1.14 points per post up field goal attempt efficient?

The league averaged 1.24 points per FGA. The Orlando Magic averaged 1.20 points per FGA. The worst offense in the league (Knicks) averaged 1.18 points per FGA. Only the Knicks (.490) had a lower eFG% than Vucevic's .494 on post up field goal attempts. And again... this was a "good" year. Over the last four years, Vucevic has a .471 eFG% and 1.06 points per shot on 1021 post up field goal attempts. That's awful.

The whole facilitation argument is just crap. Carmelo Anthony was great because... facilitation! I don't recall ever hearing anyone use that excuse to defend Elfrid Payton's shooting lines.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1986 » by SOUL » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:37 am

I mean, deep digging numbers aside, it's just common sense. if we're talking about Vucevic and efficiency (before last season), there is no argument to be made there in favor of him being an efficient scorer. A player shooting mostly mid-range shots (without getting to the line or shooting any threes) and hitting them at a 40-50% clip is not efficient at all, and the stats show that.

I can deal with people thinking he's the franchise player, thinking he deserves to be the #1 option every year, a bunch of stuff that I may or may not disagree with, but making him out to be an efficient player is a straight up manipulation of stats.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1987 » by Optimus_Steel » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:45 am

Double post.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1988 » by Optimus_Steel » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:46 am

Popsicle1228 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Popsicle1228 wrote:So, Dwight to the Lakers. Do we care?

I be lying if I didn’t say it bothers me a bit. I do not think it would if Shaq hadn’t won a championship there. Call it sour grapes (and it likely is), but I would hate to see both of the Magic’s best big men in history win a championship with the Laker organization.

On the bright side if gives me a reason to watch more NBA games and root heavily against them this season.

dont care. And i dont think they win. either Lebron or AD will have another injury this year


You are a better person than I am.

I personally have never gotten over Shaq bolting. I was 12 when it happened and It impacted me so much I vividly remember what I was doing the day he became a Laker. Silly I know as it is just basketball and there are much more important things in life. However, when I was 12, little was more important than the Magic, and my tiny 12 year old brain couldn’t process him leaving like it would as an adult. As I said before, if it were not for that 1996 off-season, I likely wouldn’t care.

As far as the Lakers winning it all I agree with you. if I were forced place a bet, I doubt the Lakers make it to the Finals. Nevertheless, it is notoriously difficult to fully discount a Lebron led team. The question for me becomes, is this the year Father Time begins to seriously degrade Lebron’s game, or does he come back with a massive chip on his shoulder after a lackluster season in which he was heavily criticized for for “going Hollywood” instead of focusing on winning basketball games?
We are the same age so I feel you. It was like getting a bag of bricks dropped on you. Then again when Shaq won his 1st title with LA because that should have been our title. Sucks seeing LA celebrate your titles.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1989 » by tiderulz » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:11 am

Popsicle1228 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Popsicle1228 wrote:So, Dwight to the Lakers. Do we care?

I be lying if I didn’t say it bothers me a bit. I do not think it would if Shaq hadn’t won a championship there. Call it sour grapes (and it likely is), but I would hate to see both of the Magic’s best big men in history win a championship with the Laker organization.

On the bright side if gives me a reason to watch more NBA games and root heavily against them this season.

dont care. And i dont think they win. either Lebron or AD will have another injury this year


You are a better person than I am.

I personally have never gotten over Shaq bolting. I was 12 when it happened and It impacted me so much I vividly remember what I was doing the day he became a Laker. Silly I know as it is just basketball and there are much more important things in life. However, when I was 12, little was more important than the Magic, and my tiny 12 year old brain couldn’t process him leaving like it would as an adult. As I said before, if it were not for that 1996 off-season, I likely wouldn’t care.

As far as the Lakers winning it all I agree with you. if I were forced place a bet, I doubt the Lakers make it to the Finals. Nevertheless, it is notoriously difficult to fully discount a Lebron led team. The question for me becomes, is this the year Father Time begins to seriously degrade Lebron’s game, or does he come back with a massive chip on his shoulder after a lackluster season in which he was heavily criticized for for “going Hollywood” instead of focusing on winning basketball games?

the Sentinel and team disrespected him, poll in paper and fans said he wasnt worth max deal. Team initially lowballed him. Yeah, he wanted to leave, but the fans and ownership made it easy
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1990 » by PrimeThyme » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:53 am

Popsicle1228 wrote:So, Dwight to the Lakers. Do we care?

I be lying if I didn’t say it bothers me a bit. I do not think it would if Shaq hadn’t won a championship there. Call it sour grapes (and it likely is), but I would hate to see both of the Magic’s best big men in history win a championship with the Laker organization.

On the bright side if gives me a reason to watch more NBA games and root heavily against them this season.

If Dwight had won one his first go-around with LA and gone on to had the success Shaq did after he left I would probably agree with you but, he didn't. In fact, Dwight's career since leaving Orlando has been nothing but a complete downward spiral and everyone including Dwight knows he made the mistake leaving this franchise. Dwight winning a championship as a 4th option and shell of his former self won't change that.

Knowing all those things puts me at peace with the situation. After having so much disdain for him after he left, I actually find myself feeling bad for Dwight more than anything else these days. I sure as hell won't be rooting for the Lakers this season but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to see him get some redemption.

I was too young to remember Shaq bolting, but knowing that he went on to have so much more success in LA then he did in Orlando is what makes the situation different for me.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1991 » by ezzzp » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:28 am

Xatticus wrote:This would be relevant if Vucevic had attempted two shots on the season. Vucevic's sample is robust. The data set is robust.


Yea, and Vucevic shot that robust sample at 1.14 points per FGA on post ups which IS efficient for post ups.

Xatticus wrote:It is exceptionally dubious in statistics to remove any data. It is essentially reserved exclusively for incomplete entries. That said, your removal of data does nothing to advance your cause. You pared down the list to seven players and that landed Vucevic in the 14th percentile in efficiency. Great.


You mean dubious like how you didn't list the actual PTperFGA data and cherry picked names to suit an agenda while leaving out key data like players such as Anthony Davis who had almost the exact same PTperFGA as Vucevic?

The list was sorted to include players that had a relevant volume in that type of possession.

...and Vucevic was not in the 14th percentile.

Xatticus wrote:You really misunderstand statistics in its entirety. You seem to be of the opinion that statistics is the mangling of data sets to contrive a short hierarchical list that fits an agenda.


You don't know what you are talking about. You have very little knowledge of NBA basketball systems or how to utilize the statistics the league puts out.

Xatticus wrote:Yes. Again... I will walk you through it this time to avoid confusion. Percentile = 1 - (x/n) x = Vucevic's rank in eFG% among the population n = population size 1 - (93/195) = 52nd percentile...This has NOTHING to do with PPP insofar as eFG% has nothing to do with PPP, though this is a rather absurd statement on its face. His percentiles in eFG% and PPP are very similar because your rationalization is of little consequence whether or not it has any merit whatsoever.


No. There is a relationship with PPP and rank, and a volume context is crucial to understand that the rank doesn't always indicate effectiveness in that type of possession. That's why Luol Deng has the highest PPP and is ranked over every other player in the NBA at post-ups, but is obviously not the most effective post up player in the NBA.


Xatticus wrote:There is so much wrong with these two sentences. Instead of diving into that though, I will simply ask you a question. Given your newfound concerns with the completeness of data sets, why would you believe that paring the data set population down to seven entries would then be defensible?


What was wrong was your math that failed to include 60% of the NBA. Which is why you are now trying to deflect away from it, except what you are pointing to is a data set that I specifically designated for volume as a factor in the analysis. A factor that is absolutely relevant to understanding the context.

Xatticus wrote:How is 1.14 points per post up field goal attempt efficient?

The league averaged 1.24 points per FGA. The Orlando Magic averaged 1.20 points per FGA. The worst offense in the league (Knicks) averaged 1.18 points per FGA. Only the Knicks (.490) had a lower eFG% than Vucevic's .494 on post up field goal attempts. And again... this was a "good" year. Over the last four years, Vucevic has a .471 eFG% and 1.06 points per shot on 1021 post up field goal attempts. That's awful.


I said 1.14 is efficient for a post up.

That doesn't mean its going to be as efficient as Morey-ball FGA's (3's and layups), which are what buoys that 1.24 league average.

How do you think the Magic generated many of the looks that created a lot of their 3PT opportunities? Vucevic post ups. He was 2nd in the entire NBA in passes out of the post. Your statement that "facilitation is just crap" is totally wrong.

Anyone that watches the Magic knows that his post ups were one of the few consistent plays that the Magic could rely on to bend the defense to create open 3's, that in turn created spacing lanes to get easier at-rim FGA's.

If the Magic had a primary creator that could replace that, sure...but unless Fultz is that guy, the Magic don't have that option.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1992 » by pepe1991 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:29 am

Dwight and art of NBA media and fitness and how clueless everything about muscle gain and weight loss this is

2019 " Dwight lost 25 pounds to show he can stil play"
2018 "Dwight lost 23 pounds and wants to play until he is 40"
2017-"Dwight explains to Hornets media how he lost 20 pounds"

Bonus 2017 "Howard says he ate 24 candy bars a day"

So let me get it straight, Dwight Howard lost 30 kg/cca 68 pounds.
I guess he now weights 85 kilos/ 187 lbs :rofl:

fake news...
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1993 » by ezzzp » Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:22 am

SOUL wrote:I mean, deep digging numbers aside, it's just common sense. if we're talking about Vucevic and efficiency (before last season), there is no argument to be made there in favor of him being an efficient scorer. A player shooting mostly mid-range shots (without getting to the line or shooting any threes) and hitting them at a 40-50% clip is not efficient at all, and the stats show that.

I can deal with people thinking he's the franchise player, thinking he deserves to be the #1 option every year, a bunch of stuff that I may or may not disagree with, but making him out to be an efficient player is a straight up manipulation of stats.


Yea, manipulation of stats:

• 20.8 PPG on .573 TS% Link

• 9th in the entire NBA in PER (Player EFFICIENCY Rating) Link

• 8th in the entire NBA in RPM Link

• 7th in the entire NBA in BPM Link

• 10th in the entire NBA in Win Shares Link

• 9th in the entire NBA in VORP Link
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1994 » by SOUL » Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:33 am

ezzzp wrote:
SOUL wrote:I mean, deep digging numbers aside, it's just common sense. if we're talking about Vucevic and efficiency (before last season), there is no argument to be made there in favor of him being an efficient scorer. A player shooting mostly mid-range shots (without getting to the line or shooting any threes) and hitting them at a 40-50% clip is not efficient at all, and the stats show that.

I can deal with people thinking he's the franchise player, thinking he deserves to be the #1 option every year, a bunch of stuff that I may or may not disagree with, but making him out to be an efficient player is a straight up manipulation of stats.


Yea, manipulation of stats:

• 20.8 PPG on .573 TS% Link

• 9th in the entire NBA in PER (Player EFFICIENCY Rating) Link

• 8th in the entire NBA in RPM Link

• 7th in the entire NBA in BPM Link

• 10th in the entire NBA in Win Shares Link

• 9th in the entire NBA in VORP Link


You just proved you didn't read my post. I said before last season. And a lot of his efficiency this season was a mixture of his offense and defense. That is what me and Xatticus are saying. If you are stating that his offense is or has been efficient throughout his career, that's patently false. Nobody is disputing his play from this past season being the best on the team and one of the best in the league (hence the All-Star nod), but a bunch of us also said he did need to either start shooting threes or getting to the line more before this season because his 14-18 ppg seasons previously where he did not stretch the floor past the three point line nor get to the line/get any opposing C's in foul trouble meant that it was not efficient offense when the ball was in his hands. I don't get what you're trying to argue there.

The reason people don't like getting into arguments with you is you either have to admit that we're discussing two different topics (you're hammering home the point on this year's overall vs career scoring/offensive efficient) or you're trying to prove something that can't be proven. You cannot prove that Vucevic has not been an efficient scorer or offensive player prior to this season, at least the previous 3-4 years where he has taken the most or 2nd most shots on the team. Was he our best option? Maybe. That's a whole different discussion.

Vucevic before Clifford was a player that was steadily going away from the basket which the stats DO show (while not shooting threes) and becoming a mostly mid-range shooter that mixed it up a little inside.

% of FGA inside the 3 point line from '15 to '18:

2015- 99%
2016- 99%
2017- 92%
2018- 75%

% of FGA from 0-3 feet from '15 to '18:

2015- 30%
2016- 24%
2017- 21%
2018- 21%

Overall FG% from '15 to '18:

2015- 52%
2016- 51%
2017- 46%
2018- 47%


These are easy, simple, digestible stats that aren't muddled with in any way. Those are not efficient scoring numbers for a player that did not get to the line (around 2.4 times per game in those 4 years combined, and less than 1 three point attempt a game combined those 4 years). It's a whole lotta long jumpers that he hit at an average clip. Teams are fine with a player doing that and hitting it half the time or less. There is no way to take those stats and make it look like something else.

If your argument is that he has turned the corner and became an efficient offensive/overall player, fine, he will still need to shoot more threes to justify his offense some nights, but he was pretty damn reliable this last season and his defense only added to how overall efficient and important he was on the floor for us. But if you are arguing that he has always been like that offensively (and defensively to the extent of this year, for that matter), it's simply not true and the stats back it up.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1995 » by pepe1991 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:48 am

Did anybody catch up Australia USA?
This USA team is terrible.

btw stop fighting about efficiency :lol:
Modern basketball breaks all metrics when it comes to offensive rating ,TS and almost every other index craeted to measure impact.
Last year Danny Green had 117,7 offensive rating

in 2002 Dirk had offensive rating of 112,8 and was highest rated player by off rating among players who actually played some big min.

For comparison , in 1997 , still in his prime Jordan had off rating of 113.

TS% is same crap. Inflated by 3point attemps and guys who have high usage AND shoot threes at respectfull clip will always have nice TS especially if they can make free throws.
Or Cs who shoot around 71% inside 3 feet and do not suck (<65% )at free throw line will ALSO have inflated TS.

It comes as no suprise that TS% leaders are 4 centers who don't shoot at all, Gobert, Bryant,Capela and Harrell and next two are sharpshooters Joe Harris and Steph Curry.

Vučević had amazing season but his advanced stats saw huge chance mostly because he shot some 3s and didn't shoot as much mid range shots. Did he really developed in better player at age of 28? No. He was used by better coach ni better way . Just like Gordon saw boost in efficiency after Clifford cut iso plays and pull up jumpers from his 2017-18 arsenal.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1996 » by SOUL » Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:55 am

pepe1991 wrote:Did anybody catch up Australia USA?
This USA team is terrible.

btw stop fighting about efficiency :lol:


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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1997 » by SOUL » Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:59 am

But yeah, reminded me of old Gobert/DeAndre vs Vucevic offensive efficiency discussions from a few years ago. I argued that they were more efficient (NOT SKILLED, obviously) despite averaging less points because they shot 90% of their shots within 0-3 feet and would average what, 60-71% versus Vucevic shooting a similar 90% of shots inside the 3 point line and averaging 46-50%. It's just easy math and I'm bad at math. Even if you gave them more attempts like Vuc, they would be more efficient. No brainer.

Shouldn't be looked at as a bad thing either (especially with Vuc getting paid to produce like he did this year) -- we were anticipating his three point shot to come alive. Wasn't a hopeful thing like Payton three pointer, Mario being a consistent scorer, AG becoming a good iso scorer.. we're just like hey dude, back up a few feet and try to get us a few more points.. and some people took issue with that lol.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1998 » by pepe1991 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:02 am

SOUL wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Did anybody catch up Australia USA?
This USA team is terrible.

btw stop fighting about efficiency :lol:


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It's funny how FIBA court allows you to play with almost 4 bigs because faster players simply don't create enough separation to take adventage.
Because there is no 3 sec USA couldn't contain guys like Bogut at all.
Man if they face Serbia with Jokić and Marjanović they will get whooped. Even Gobert and France Cs will be nightmare matchup for them.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#1999 » by SOUL » Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:10 am

pepe1991 wrote:
SOUL wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Did anybody catch up Australia USA?
This USA team is terrible.

btw stop fighting about efficiency :lol:


Image


It's funny how FIBA court allows you to play with almost 4 bigs because faster players simply don't create enough separation to take adventage.
Because there is no 3 sec USA couldn't contain guys like Bogut at all.
Man if they face Serbia with Jokić and Marjanović they will get whooped. Even Gobert and France Cs will be nightmare matchup for them.


I don't have much hope in this team at all seeing who dropped out/got injured.. would be amazed if they won actually lol.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F 

Post#2000 » by ezzzp » Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:43 pm

SOUL wrote: You just proved you didn't read my post. I said before last season. That is what me and Xatticus are saying. If you are stating that his offense is or has been efficient throughout his career, that's patently false.


Uh, no it doesn't. My response was to the underlined part of your post...hence the underline. That part of your comment was an obvious response to the Xatticus discussion which is about ONE specific type of play (post-up) from ONE specific season (18-19), not prior seasons.

I am NOT and have NEVER EVER said that Vucevic was efficient prior to this season.

In fact, I have been stating since last summer that Vucevic's addition of the 3PT shot was a game changer for him - as it was going to turn him from an inefficient player to an efficient modern offense big.

SOUL wrote:Nobody is disputing his play from this past season being the best on the team and one of the best in the league (hence the All-Star nod), but a bunch of us also said he did need to either start shooting threes or getting to the line more before this season because his 14-18 ppg seasons previously where he did not stretch the floor past the three point line nor get to the line/get any opposing C's in foul trouble meant that it was not efficient offense when the ball was in his hands. I don't get what you're trying to argue there.


You are the one that took a discussion that was specifically about last season's post-up FGA's and turned it to a discussion about his prior seasons and his overall efficiency. Go back and reread the exchange and you will see that all the stats we were discussing were about one specific type of play from the 18-19 season. The closest thing discussed outside that parameter was about the future, NOT the past.

...and FYI I have been stating that his addition of the 3PT shot was going to be a game changer for him since before last season started. In the numerous discussions about his free agency earlier this summer, I even posted his shot distribution breakdown in relationship to Morey-Ball efficiency to show how it was trending and how there could be another efficiency jump in the upcoming season.

SOUL wrote:The reason people don't like getting into arguments with you is you either have to admit that we're discussing two different topics (you're hammering home the point on this year's overall vs career scoring/offensive efficient) or you're trying to prove something that can't be proven. You cannot prove that Vucevic has not been an efficient scorer or offensive player prior to this season, at least the previous 3-4 years where he has taken the most or 2nd most shots on the team. Was he our best option? Maybe. That's a whole different discussion.


That is exactly what YOU are doing. The discussion with Xatticus was about one specific type of play (the Post-Up) in one specific year (18-19). You are the one that just splintered it to a tangent about his past seasons.

That "whole different discussion" that you mention, WAS part of what we were discussing. That is why throughout the exchange I continuously mention how inside/out systems are reliant on paint touches and why there was discussion about post-facilitation. I even made references to Fultz and how he might impact that dynamic.

SOUL wrote:Vucevic before Clifford was a player that was steadily going away from the basket which the stats DO show (while not shooting threes) and becoming a mostly mid-range shooter that mixed it up a little inside.

Spoiler:
% of FGA inside the 3 point line from '15 to '18:

2015- 99%
2016- 99%
2017- 92%
2018- 75%

% of FGA from 0-3 feet from '15 to '18:

2015- 30%
2016- 24%
2017- 21%
2018- 21%

Overall FG% from '15 to '18:

2015- 52%
2016- 51%
2017- 46%
2018- 47%


Again, the discussion WAS NOT about his efficiency in the past. It was about one specific type of play (Post-Up) and one specific season (18-19)...a play that for the most part occurs inside of 16ft.

SOUL wrote:These are easy, simple, digestible stats that aren't muddled with in any way.


Actually you didn't include league context. Center's weren't asked, and in many cases not even allowed, to take 3's until recently.

If you look at the 15-16 season, there were only 15 centers that took more than ONE 3PA per game. Many of those 15 players played a decent chunk of their time at PF.

Last season, there were 32 "Centers" who took more than ONE 3PA per game...and I bet it keeps growing moving forward.

SOUL wrote:Those are not efficient scoring numbers for a player that did not get to the line (around 2.4 times per game in those 4 years combined, and less than 1 three point attempt a game combined those 4 years). It's a whole lotta long jumpers that he hit at an average clip. Teams are fine with a player doing that and hitting it half the time or less. There is no way to take those stats and make it look like something else.


NOBODY did that. The discussion was NOT about Vucevic's prior seasons. The discussion was specifically about 2018-19 season Post-Ups, which for the most part occur inside of 16ft.

But since you bring it up....

FYI: League Averages for FG% from 16ft < 3PT:

2015- .398 (Vucevic shot .482)
2016- .403 (Vucevic shot .419)
2017- .400 (Vucevic shot .475)
2018- .401 (Vucevic shot .427)

...so since you were happy to accept Xatticus' assertion that "league average" is the line that demarcates efficiency then Vucevic has been above league average in that shot, so under your accepted definition he was "efficient" in that long 2 range.

Personally, I am totally against this type of shot...I even say as much in the exchange with Xatticus and have been preaching it for years.

But that's not what the discussion was about. The discussion was about Post-Up play in the 18-19 season, which for the most part occurs inside of 16ft.


SOUL wrote:If your argument is that he has turned the corner and became an efficient offensive/overall player, fine, he will still need to shoot more threes to justify his offense some nights, but he was pretty damn reliable this last season and his defense only added to how overall efficient and important he was on the floor for us. But if you are arguing that he has always been like that offensively (and defensively to the extent of this year, for that matter), it's simply not true and the stats back it up.


Again, NOBODY was making an argument about prior seasons. The discussion was about one specific play (the Post Up) in one specific season (18-19).

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