Playoffs or Lottery? (Poll)

[PrimeThyme]

With free agency around the corner, I think it is an interesting time to ask this question. We are at a crossroads of sorts. Last year we made the playoffs with the help of veterans, a healthy roster, and an easy last 1/4th of the schedule that allowed us to position ourselves for the 7th seed in the East and a first-round playoff exit.

The biggest reason for our playoff birth tho was Vuc/Ross. Both of these guys had the best season of their careers last year. These peak seasons also happened to come in contract years and with that, I think something we really have to consider is whether or not the Vuc/Ross we saw last year is the peak version of both players that we will see. Imo, I think it was. I could see Vuc dipping down closer to the production we saw from him the previous 3 years, same with Ross.

The first thing that comes to mind is the Miami Heat when I think of retaining Vuc/Ross on long term contracts. Miami signed Whiteside/JJ/Waiters off of early round playoff exits. Miami has been a treadmill team ever since due to misjudging the ceiling of guys like Whiteside/Winslow and capping out their roster.

Thats my fear with signing those two to longterm contracts before knowing what we have in a Fultz/Bamba/Isaac/AG (to a lesser extent). If those players don't pan out like we are expecting, I worry that we could end up in the same position the Miami Heat have been in the last few years. Not bad enough to draft the top end talent that we need and not good enough to be anything more than a first-round playoff exit.

This is why I think letting both guys walk and resigning Birch would be our best option this offseason. Next season is when we can see if Isaac is going to take that jump we are expecting and its also when we can see if a guy like Fultz can come in and produce for us. It would also allow for us to see after a summer of bulking up and adding to his game where we stand with a player like Bamba as well.

Yes letting both guys walk would most likely mean we'd be in the lottery but in doing so, we could go into next offseason with a potential top 12 pick in a guard-heavy draft and cap space with Mosgov/DJ coming off the books and a possible Fournier trade on the horizon.

We wouldn't have to completely bottom out either. I think if we added a stop-gap guard on a 1-2 year deal like Rubio/Collison/Lin we could remain competitive in a potentially even weaker East and it would help develop our frontcourt guys. With the new lottery odds, there isn't the same incentive to race to the bottom (top 2 picks this year one 33 games) and it gives us a better shot at landing a top 3 pick.

[BadMofoPimp]

If the team falls to bottom 10 in the league that means the entire organization has failed at their job, their players and fans. That would mean all the players have regressed as potential talents.

[jayrehme]

Too soon, we dont know our roster yet.

[PrimeThyme]

Too soon, we dont know our roster yet.

I feel like its the perfect time, actually. What we do in the next few weeks will determine which route we will take.

[Nyce_1]

I'd rather be in the playoffs with BIG MF leading us. Even if for a sweep.

[Ducklett]

We smartly made the playoffs on a bad draft year. I voted bottom 10 because we still don't have a superstar. If we go a route where we start clearing cap for 2021 free agency to sign Greek Freak and one of his boys, I don't care where we end up.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

If it’s playoffs without Vuc TRoss on long term deals I’d go that route.

[Xatticus]

Everything else being equal, I'd rather be a playoff team. I think there are some assumptions built into the question though.

First and foremost, I think it is a massive assumption that this is a playoff team even if we manage to retain Vucevic and Ross. This was a team that was on the outside looking in for almost the entirety of the season. It was a late season push that narrowly got this team over the line. This was a .500 team that was relatively unhindered by injuries. At last I checked, our over/under for next season was sitting at 36.5 wins.

I don't really buy the argument that a favorable late-season schedule was the reason for the playoff appearance, because conference schedules are largely balanced and whatever advantage we had at the back end of the schedule would presumably have been offset by a tougher sled in the first half of the season. Where we obviously benefited however, was in dodging a lot of the league's elite talent due to rest days. Stated frankly, the top teams chose Orlando as a favorable opponent against which to rest their stars. I have little doubt that this nabbed us a few extra wins, which made all the difference in the end.

I do not expect Vucevic and Ross to replicate their productivity from last season. The contract year bump is a real thing. Of the two, I believe Ross is the more likely to replicate his production from last season (his efficiency wasn't as far removed from his career mean), but I also think there is a very good chance that he is playing elsewhere next season.

This is a team that should be in the talent acquisition and development stage right now, with the focus of retaining as much flexibility as possible for the summer of 2021. We aren't players in free agency this year and next year's crop is weak. If we have to take a step back to retain that flexibility and to develop our young core, I am more than content to do so; especially when it seems a probable outcome regardless.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Fighting for playoff spots and then the actual playoffs are so important for player development.

[OrlandoNed]

Playoffs if we can avoid keeping Vuc on a deal longer than 2 years. If not, I don't mind going into the lottery without Vuc keeping a ceiling on the team's growth. I don't see the logic in gathering all of these young athletic wings just to stifle them by playing them in support roles to a slower Vucevic-centric half-court offense.

[Skin]

I'd love to win on the backs of our youth, but have no interest in getting there with Vuc, Ross and Fournier leading the charge.

If we can show that we can win with our young guys then that will make us an attractive FA destination for a star to join. ...then as long as we maintain our flexible cap space, we should be golden.

But if we fill up our cap space with good but not great veterans leading the charge then we'll have no cap space to add a star and no star wants to join some blah team anyways.

[KillMonger]

With Vuc and ross back..... Run it back and take another step forward......maybe next season we'll see a more consistent fournier..... Better yet maybe we won't see him at all (traded)

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[CPBalla2003 n da 863]

Playoffs with Vooch and Ross back. It's all about continuity and developing your next group (Isaac, Bamba, Fultz, Gordon, Iwundu, Okeke) with winning habits and culture. Vooch and Ross gives them the spacing to operate and hopefully taking the next step in their development.

I rather not take a step back. At which point and time in a few years, you can separate the core and the assets.

[BlueBalls]

Lotto with young guys. 150%.

[Blue_and_Whte]

With Vuc and ross back..... Run it back and take another step forward......maybe next season we'll see a more consistent fournier..... Better yet maybe we won't see him at all (traded)

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It easy to forget how solid he was the season before last. I think he just had an off year.

[MoMM]

I believe it's pretty clear that the fans want to re-sign Vuc/Ross and make the playoffs than letting them leave and playing for a top pick.

We have a lot of room for improvement, young players that probably will develop even more, MLE, etc. It won't be a championship team without a superstar (or two), but at least we can make the playoffs, win around 50 games and be happy.

[PrimeThyme]

I'd love to win on the backs of our youth, but have no interest in getting there with Vuc, Ross and Fournier leading the charge.

If we can show that we can win with our young guys then that will make us an attractive FA destination for a star to join. ...then as long as we maintain our flexible cap space, we should be golden.

But if we fill up our cap space with good but not great veterans leading the charge then we'll have no cap space to add a star and no star wants to join some blah team anyways.

Agreed, && I'm saying this under the assumption that this team without Ross/Vuc would not make the playoffs next year. I'm not interested in purposely losing games and if Fultz/Isaac/Bamba/AG could lead us to the playoffs next year I would 100% be all for it. I don't see that as realistic though.

I think we would be in the lottery again but I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing. One development year allowing for our young guys to grow and get meaningful minutes and then go into next offseason with cap space doesn't sound like the worst idea to me.

[VFX]

This poll should really be -

Youth movement

Or

Resign Vuc

We could be in the playoffs or lottery in either situation. Anyone claiming otherwise is making assumptions.

[PrimeThyme]

This poll should really be -

Youth movement

Or

Resign Vuc

We could be in the playoffs or lottery in either situation. Anyone claiming otherwise is making assumptions.

Why I made the poll options what they are, is because for me it’s one or the other. You either resign Vuc and go hard at that 6-8th spot again or you opt in to a youth movement by letting him walk and starting Bamba or Birch.

So in my eyes by selecting playoffs you are arguing to resign Vuc/Ross and if you select lottery you are okay with letting them walk and going towards a youth movement.

I can’t really see them throwing big money at someone else if it’s not Vuc and that’s the only way I could see us having a real shot at the playoffs otherwise. There’s no other player we could realistically sign that could have the all-star impact he did last year (D-lo isn’t realistic imo) and give us a real shot at one of those spots.

I think they would decide to fill in some backup roles with that money and go into next offseason with a lot of cap space to work with.

[MoMM]

It's an internet bball board, everyone makes assumptions as they were facts.