OFFICIAL (WOJ): KHEM BIRCH RESIGNED 2YR/6M

[Knightro]

Bamba is already a far superior rim protecter and while not a sharp shooter, has confidence enough in his game to attempt the 3-pt shot. Birch lacks that shot entirely.

Being a better shot blocker doesn’t mean you’re a better rim protector for what it’s worth.

FG% allowed at the rim last year.
Birch: 52.0%
Vucevic: 54.8%
Bamba: 57.3%

[MagicFan101]

Bamba is already a far superior rim protecter and while not a sharp shooter, has confidence enough in his game to attempt the 3-pt shot. Birch lacks that shot entirely.

Being a better shot blocker doesn’t mean you’re a better rim protector for what it’s worth.

FG% allowed at the rim last year.
Birch: 52.0%
Vucevic: 54.8%
Bamba: 57.3%

If I told you to gamble your home and savings on which of these three would end up the best rim protector of the group, which would it be?

[Knightro]

If I told you to gamble your home and savings on which of these three would end up the best rim protector of the group, which would it be?

Does this really matter though?

I'm pretty confident Bamba will be the worst rim protector of the three again this upcoming season which is all that we should be concerned with right now.

[MagicFan101]

If I told you to gamble your home and savings on which of these three would end up the best rim protector of the group, which would it be?

Does this really matter though?

I'm pretty confident Bamba will be the worst rim protector of the three again this upcoming season which is all that we should be concerned with right now.

Do you expect to win an NBA championship this upcoming season?

Then no, this upcoming season is not what we should be concerned with.

We should be concerned with developing talent for the years to follow in hopes of reaching that goal. If that means focusing on a more raw prospect in games and / or practice then so be it.

Birch is a fun filler. Bamba has an exciting future.

[drsd]

Do you expect to win an NBA championship this upcoming season?

I am super excited about this season!

[Knightro]

Do you expect to win an NBA championship this upcoming season?

Then no, this upcoming season is not what we should be concerned with.

We should be concerned with developing talent for the years to follow in hopes of reaching that goal. If that means focusing on a more raw prospect in games and / or practice then so be it.

Birch is a fun filler. Bamba has an exciting future.

Right off the bat I want to say that I agree with everything you wrote, but I also want to back up a second.

I try and write out most/all of my posts here with less of a “here’s what I think the Magic should do” perspective and more of a “here’s what I think the Magic are going to do/here’s what I believe the Magic were thinking when they made this decision” perspective.

I know what Khem Birch is. He’s a good backup NBA center capable of giving you 15-18 really competent minutes every night. I also know that he’s 27 years old and what you see essentially is what you get. He’s not going to magically add three point shooting or shot blocking at this stage in his career. His developing is pretty much done.

I also know Mo Bamba has a much higher ceiling than Birch. If everything works out and Mo is able to reach his full potential, he has the length/athleticism/mobility traits to potentially be a dominant interior defender while also bringing a unique combination of rim runner in pick and roll and three point shooter in pick and pop. Not many guys in the NBA can effectively do both.

All that said...

The Magic have very publicly, from Weltman to Hammond to Clifford to the veteran players they resigned, made it clear that they want to make the playoffs again. Considering how much money they committed to bringing back this roster and how much weaker the East appears to be than last year, anything less than the playoffs would be an abject failure.

I’m certainly not going to read too much into 15 minutes of one summer league game, but I’m still skeptical that the problems Mo had last year with effort, motor and instincts still very much exist.

Bamba was REALLY bad last year. One of the ten worst players in the NBA bad. The Magic would absolutely not have made the playoffs had he not gotten injured.

Until proven otherwise by Mo, Birch is unquestionably the better option of the two players on the court right now. I believe the Magic will begin the season with Bamba as the backup C, but if he’s getting his head kicked in again and the team is hemorrhaging points like they did all of last season when he played, will Clifford make a change since we all know the playoffs are an organization wide publicly stated goal?

In a perfect world, Bamba takes the rest of this summer and fall to keep developing and then comes into camp improved to the point where this isn’t even an issue. He just gets the nod over Birch as the backup C and everyone is happy with everything.

But the margins are pretty thin.

[Nyce_1]

If I told you to gamble your home and savings on which of these three would end up the best rim protector of the group, which would it be?

Does this really matter though?

I'm pretty confident Bamba will be the worst rim protector of the three again this upcoming season which is all that we should be concerned with right now.

I disagree. With a year under his belt, and a better feel for the game, speed, and tendencies throughout the league, and a better understanding of defensive positioning and our team defense, I fully expect him to be a better rim protector next season.

Kid was just a rookie and only played in 47 games. Just when it looked like he was figuring it out, injury. He had an on-par rookie season comparable to Capela, Turner, Gobert, Drummond, & Jordan. All those players improved year 2, and there is zero doubt in my head that Mo will too.

[Knightro]

I disagree. With a year under his belt, and a better feel for the game, speed, and tendencies throughout the league, and a better understanding of defensive positioning and our team defense, I fully expect him to be a better rim protector next season.

Kid was just a rookie and only played in 47 games. Just when it looked like he was figuring it out, injury. He had an on-par rookie season comparable to Capela, Turner, Gobert, Drummond, & Jordan. All those players improved year 2, and there is zero doubt in my head that Mo will too.

From a raw numbers perspective? Sure. Bamba was on par with all of those guys. But from a positive/negative impact perspective, he was by far the worst of all the guys you mentioned.

Rookie Numbers
Drummond (1243 minutes)
ON COURT: -1.6
ON/OFF: +3.9

Capela (90 minutes)
ON COURT: +4.8
ON/OFF: +1.2

Turner (1367 minutes)
ON COURT: -2.4
ON/OFF: -6.6

Gobert (434 minutes)
ON COURT: -2.6
ON/OFF: +6.0

Jordan (771 minutes)
ON COURT: -16.1
ON/OFF: -7.6

Bamba (906 minutes)
ON COURT: -14.1
ON/OFF: -18.8

The only guy that really compares to how poor Bamba was is DeAndre Jordan and not surprising he was still really terrible as a second year player (-10.6 ON COURT, -5.0 ON/OFF) before finally becoming a net positive in Year 4.

Bamba's obviously going to get better, but that's mainly because he's starting this year from such an insanely low point. He could improve both his ON COURT and ON/OFF numbers by 10 (which would be an unprecedented level jump) and still be a massive net negative.

That's how far behind the 8 ball he is.

[Blue_and_Whte]

The easiest part... you mean when we were playing for our playoff lives and made it? Can’t see that same outcome if Bamba were playing.

Stop trying, Bamba homers will find another excuse in 5 minutes...

Bamba is the next big thing...

Birch signed a 2 year / $6M deal for his second NBA contract. He himself knows what he is and it isn’t special.

Bamba is raw as ****. But the potential is obviously and even on display in multiple key areas.

Birch:
92 games played
1221 minutes played
0 3-pt attempts
50 blocks

Bamba:
47 games played
766 minutes played
70 3-pt attempts
21 3-pt made
64 blocks


Bamba is already a far superior rim protecter and while not a sharp shooter, has confidence enough in his game to attempt the 3-pt shot. Birch lacks that shot entirely.

I love having Birch here on this deal as a role player deep off the bench. I absolutely love it. Fantastic deal for this team.

... but Bamba is the guy to watch. Saying otherwise is just stupid.

Bamba isn’t far superior in anything. Our defense was worlds better with Birch in the line up. It’s not about individual stats. Mo routinely got scored on by guards and we saw it again in SL. Birch is a much better rim protector and overall defender and it doesn’t appear to be close. They’ll keep gifting Mo minutes but I fully anticipate Cliff responding if he starts to cost us games due to his lackluster play.

The only thing stupid around here is pretending having more blocks equates to being a good defender, sits right behind drafting another center when you already have two better options while passing on guys like SGA.

[MoMM]

If I told you to gamble your home and savings on which of these three would end up the best rim protector of the group, which would it be?

Does this really matter though?

I'm pretty confident Bamba will be the worst rim protector of the three again this upcoming season which is all that we should be concerned with right now.

Do you expect to win an NBA championship this upcoming season?

Then no, this upcoming season is not what we should be concerned with.

We should be concerned with developing talent for the years to follow in hopes of reaching that goal. If that means focusing on a more raw prospect in games and / or practice then so be it.

Birch is a fun filler. Bamba has an exciting future.

Ok, let's draft a 13 years old prospect, since we won't win the championship next season anyway.

[Nyce_1]

I disagree. With a year under his belt, and a better feel for the game, speed, and tendencies throughout the league, and a better understanding of defensive positioning and our team defense, I fully expect him to be a better rim protector next season.

Kid was just a rookie and only played in 47 games. Just when it looked like he was figuring it out, injury. He had an on-par rookie season comparable to Capela, Turner, Gobert, Drummond, & Jordan. All those players improved year 2, and there is zero doubt in my head that Mo will too.

From a raw numbers perspective? Sure. Bamba was on par with all of those guys. But from a positive/negative impact perspective, he was by far the worst of all the guys you mentioned.

Rookie Numbers
Drummond (1243 minutes)
ON COURT: -1.6
ON/OFF: +3.9

Capela (90 minutes)
ON COURT: +4.8
ON/OFF: +1.2

Turner (1367 minutes)
ON COURT: -2.4
ON/OFF: -6.6

Gobert (434 minutes)
ON COURT: -2.6
ON/OFF: +6.0

Jordan (771 minutes)
ON COURT: -16.1
ON/OFF: -7.6

Bamba (906 minutes)
ON COURT: -14.1
ON/OFF: -18.8

The only guy that really compares to how poor Bamba was is DeAndre Jordan and not surprising he was still really terrible as a second year player (-10.6 ON COURT, -5.0 ON/OFF) before finally becoming a net positive in Year 4.

Bamba's obviously going to get better, but that's mainly because he's starting this year from such an insanely low point. He could improve both his ON COURT and ON/OFF numbers by 10 (which would be an unprecedented level jump) and still be a massive net negative.

That's how far behind the 8 ball he is.

Just curious, how much of those stats take into account who else is on the floor with you?

I appreciate your efforts.

[basketballRob]

I disagree. With a year under his belt, and a better feel for the game, speed, and tendencies throughout the league, and a better understanding of defensive positioning and our team defense, I fully expect him to be a better rim protector next season.

Kid was just a rookie and only played in 47 games. Just when it looked like he was figuring it out, injury. He had an on-par rookie season comparable to Capela, Turner, Gobert, Drummond, & Jordan. All those players improved year 2, and there is zero doubt in my head that Mo will too.

From a raw numbers perspective? Sure. Bamba was on par with all of those guys. But from a positive/negative impact perspective, he was by far the worst of all the guys you mentioned.

Rookie Numbers
Drummond (1243 minutes)
ON COURT: -1.6
ON/OFF: +3.9

Capela (90 minutes)
ON COURT: +4.8
ON/OFF: +1.2

Turner (1367 minutes)
ON COURT: -2.4
ON/OFF: -6.6

Gobert (434 minutes)
ON COURT: -2.6
ON/OFF: +6.0

Jordan (771 minutes)
ON COURT: -16.1
ON/OFF: -7.6

Bamba (906 minutes)
ON COURT: -14.1
ON/OFF: -18.8

The only guy that really compares to how poor Bamba was is DeAndre Jordan and not surprising he was still really terrible as a second year player (-10.6 ON COURT, -5.0 ON/OFF) before finally becoming a net positive in Year 4.

Bamba's obviously going to get better, but that's mainly because he's starting this year from such an insanely low point. He could improve both his ON COURT and ON/OFF numbers by 10 (which would be an unprecedented level jump) and still be a massive net negative.

That's how far behind the 8 ball he is.

Just curious, how much of those stats take into account who else is on the floor with you?

I appreciate your efforts.

And who you played. Just glancing at the schedule after Bamba went was the majority of them were against non playoff teams. Bamba played against mostly playoff teams.

Plus age plays a factor in how effective you are. Look at other players his age in the first 30 or 40 games and see how effective they were.

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[Knightro]

Just curious, how much of those stats take into account who else is on the floor with you?

I appreciate your efforts.

A lot obviously.

Bamba played 766 minutes last season...

710 with Ross (-13.8)
486 with Grant (-15.0)
438 with Simmons (-11.4)
414 with Gordon (-14.1)
246 with Fournier (-16.3)
216 with Isaac (-19.1)
164 with Iwundu (-19.0)
138 with Augustin (-23.0)
105 with Martin (-3.5)
104 with Briscoe (-1.4)
36 with Vucevic (-53.4)
1 with Birch (-58.3)
1 with Frazier Jr. (-58.3)

Just crazy bad all around.

If you want to find one possible encouraging sign for Bamba is the fact that he wasn't beat you over the head awful when paired with Isaiah Briscoe.

104 minutes is a pretty small sample size and they were still poor offensively (99.1 ORTG) together, but a lot better than Grant/Bamba's 94.4 ORTG), but the Briscoe/Bamba combo figured something out defensively (100.5 DRTG) that Grant and Bamba (109.4 DRTG) could not.

It gives a slight modicum of hope that Bamba will be more effective with MCW/Fultz than he was with Grant.

[basketballRob]

Just curious, how much of those stats take into account who else is on the floor with you?

I appreciate your efforts.

A lot obviously.

Bamba played 766 minutes last season...

710 with Ross (-13.8)
486 with Grant (-15.0)
438 with Simmons (-11.4)
414 with Gordon (-14.1)
246 with Fournier (-16.3)
216 with Isaac (-19.1)
164 with Iwundu (-19.0)
138 with Augustin (-23.0)
105 with Martin (-3.5)
104 with Briscoe (-1.4)
36 with Vucevic (-53.4)
1 with Birch (-58.3)
1 with Frazier Jr. (-58.3)

Just crazy bad all around.

If you want to find one possible encouraging sign for Bamba is the fact that he wasn't beat you over the head awful when paired with Isaiah Briscoe.

104 minutes is a pretty small sample size and they were still poor offensively (99.1 ORTG) together, but a lot better than Grant/Bamba's 94.4 ORTG), but the Briscoe/Bamba combo figured something out defensively (100.5 DRTG) that Grant and Bamba (109.4 DRTG) could not.

It gives a slight modicum of hope that Bamba will be more effective with MCW/Fultz than he was with Grant.

If you go on basketball reference, his ORtg 105 DRtg 103. I'm choosing to use this one.

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[drsd]

Bamba was REALLY bad last year. One of the ten worst players in the NBA bad.

Let's not forget:

[Knightro]

If you go on basketball reference, his ORtg 105 DRtg 103. I'm choosing to use this one.

The individual ORTG and DRTG stats on Basketball Reference are very flawed IMO.

When you go on NBA.com and look at the ORTG and DRTG stats, they tell you how many points are scored and how many points are allowed by the team when an individual player in on the court.

Basketball Reference's individual ORTG and DRTG is an estimate on how many points an individual player would score and would give up per 100 possessions based purely on box score stats.

So for example...

Let's say Mo Bamba is on the court for 5 minutes.

In those five minutes, Markelle Fultz breaks his man down off the dribble three times, gets in the paint each time and dumps it off to Bamba for three uncontested dunks.

Let's also say Bamba botches 3 or 4 pick and rolls defensively which leads to open shots for the oppositions guards. Let's say the opposing team shoots 7/10 from the floor, 3/3 from three with the opposing center not scoring, Bamba blocking two of the missed shots and Bamba getting all three available defensive rebounds.

So after 5 minutes the Magic are down 17-6, but Bamba's individual ORTG and DRTG are sky high because he didn't miss a shot, he grabbed 3 rebounds and blocked 2 shots in five minutes of court time while the opposing center didn't score.

Who cares if Bamba didn't communicate or botched pick and rolls coverages defensively? Who cares if he set weak screens on offense or messed up a play call which led to a teammates miss or turnover? So what if he didn't chase a loose ball or whatever other little thing he could have done to not be trailing by 11 points in five minutes.

His box score numbers were good. Which means his ORTG and DRTG were good.

Obviously this is a really extreme example, but the point remains that BREF ORTG and DRTG are box score aggregates, not true indicators of how much overall impact a player has.

[basketballRob]

If you go on basketball reference, his ORtg 105 DRtg 103. I'm choosing to use this one.

The individual ORTG and DRTG stats on Basketball Reference are very flawed IMO.

When you go on NBA.com and look at the ORTG and DRTG stats, they tell you how many points are scored and how many points are allowed by the team when an individual player in on the court.

Basketball Reference's individual ORTG and DRTG is an estimate on how many points an individual player would score and would give up per 100 possessions based purely on box score stats.

So for example...

Let's say Mo Bamba is on the court for 5 minutes.

In those five minutes, Markelle Fultz breaks his man down off the dribble three times, gets in the paint each time and dumps it off to Bamba for three uncontested dunks.

Let's also say Bamba botches 3 or 4 pick and rolls defensively which leads to open shots for the oppositions guards. Let's say the opposing team shoots 7/10 from the floor, 3/3 from three with the opposing center not scoring, Bamba blocking two of the missed shots and Bamba getting all three available defensive rebounds.

So after 5 minutes the Magic are down 17-6, but Bamba's individual ORTG and DRTG are sky high because he didn't miss a shot, he grabbed 3 rebounds and blocked 2 shots in five minutes of court time while the opposing center didn't score.

Who cares if Bamba didn't communicate or botched pick and rolls coverages defensively? Who cares if he set weak screens on offense or messed up a play call which led to a teammates miss or turnover? So what if he didn't chase a loose ball or whatever other little thing he could have done to not be trailing by 11 points in five minutes.

His box score numbers were good. Which means his ORTG and DRTG were good.

Obviously this is a really extreme example, but the point remains that BREF ORTG and DRTG are box score aggregates, not true indicators of how much overall impact a player has.

I think it's hard in either system to pinpoint what impact they have. Both systems have flaws. I just like using the basketball reference one to evaluate players.

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