The Curious Case of Nikola Vucevic

[D J C]

Nikola Vucevic, the longest tenured Magic player and the first real piece of the rebuild. The only remaining player that bridged the gap between Magic legends such as Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, JJ Redick, 3'Twaun Moore, Glen Davis, and Arron Afflalo. From hype as a sophomore when he came storming in averaging a double-double at 22 years old, to fans turning on him as a scapegoat after many losing seasons, to becoming our first All Star since Dwight.. he has become a hot topic this offseason with his new contract as we are in limbo of where to go next.

Somewhere along the way, I think we got lost into pigeonholing him into a stiff - with memories of half of his shots coming from the mid range and getting burnt on defense night in and night out. He is not that player anymore though.

The leap Vucevic made this past season is quite special and I don't think the majority of fans really appreciate the year he had. They still think of the mid range, slow footed, allergic-to-winning big man and see that he is 28 years old now and think that his All Star season leading us to the playoffs is a fluke. That his style of play is not a winning style in this day and age. Looking at raw numbers and advanced numbers, I'd say these people need to be a bit more opened minded about Vucevic and the future of this team.

First off, lets see what really changed with Vucevic this year with Steve Clifford..

The biggest thing that stands out to me is that he shot the fewest attempts in his career from the dreaded long 2 range. Only 12.6% of his shots came from 16ft out to 3pt range, down from 26.4% just two seasons ago. He shot less from 3pt range than last season, but his percentage jumped from 31% to 36%. Seems like his shot selection in Clifford's offense was greatly improved, and he had a career year in efficiency because of it.

A couple of other small areas of improvement.. his assists rose modestly from 3.4 to 3.8 per game. Whats interesting is his Points Generated per Assist jumped from 8 per game to 9 per game. Some credit again to Cliff here. A good sign of defense is fouls per game.. and he dropped his PF per 36 down to 2.3 per game, where before this season he never had under 3 per game. Small difference, but it does matter.

With the overall improvements between his game, play style and new offense, he posted career highs in:

PTS/G (20.8)
PTS/100 (32.5)
REB/G (12)
REB/100 (18.7)
AST/G (3.8)
AST/100 (6.0)
FT/100 (3.5)
3PM (84)
3PT% (36.4%, previous )
eFG% (54.9%)
TS% (57.3%)
BPM (6.4)
VORP (5.3)
PER (25.5)
WS (10.1)
ORtg (115)
DRtg (103)
Points Generated by Assists (744)

In context, this put him in the top 10 this season in WS, BPM, PER, VORP, DRB%, TRB%, REB/100

Ok so what, he posted some good numbers with an offense catered to him and a career high in usage. There's no where to go from here, he's hit his ceiling now, right? There's plenty of big man like him i.e. Kanter, Jonas V, Nurkic, etc. Well, not really.

What do teams look for in a modern big? The ability to defend and hit the 3 are nice to have. Going by raw numbers, the list of PF/C to ever average 20 ppg, 10 rpg, and 1 3/g: Jokic, KAT, Embiid, Cousins, and Vucevic. You can expand this to per 100 possession stats and get a similar list.. List of PF/C to avg 30+ pts/100, 10+ rb/100, and .5 3P/G: Vucevic, KAT, Jokic, Embiid, and AD.

Ok raw numbers are good, but what about pace adjusted? And big men shooting 3s is relatively recent so of course the old timers wont be there. Well, the list of PF/C to ever average 30/15/5 per 100: Vucevic, KG, Duncan, Kareem, Jokic, AD, Embiid, Cousins, and George McGinnis.

You can say that's cherry picked stats, but there's several of these lists you can make that show how special Vucevic's season was:

List of PF/C to average 20/10/1+ SPG/1+ BPG: David Robinson, Kareem, KG, McAdoo, Hakeem, Moses, Dwight, Lanier, AD, Ewing, Hayes, Webber, Zo, Dave Cowens, Cousins, and Vucevic. Pretty good company still.

List of PF/C to avg 30+ pts/100, 1 SPG, 1 BPG, 3 APG: Robinson, KG, KAJ, Hakeem, McAdoo, Webber, AD, Cousins. Only Cousins and Vucevic did this while making 1+ 3PG. Only Vucevic did that with a WS above 10.

Ok number are nice, but where can he go from here? Can he improve any further, can he lead us to 50+ wins? What if he improves his volume/% on his 3pt shot? What if his defense keeps improving? Is there a precedent for this, for a big man improving so much late in his career? Becoming an above average 3 point shooter and an above average post defender? How valuable is that?

Look, I'm not completely crazy, I'm not arguing he's ever going to be the player to lead us to contention. If you look at the best role playing centers in the league though, you see Marc Gasol and Brook Lopez on the two best teams in the East, two centers who can shoot the 3 and are above average defenders. I'm saying that Vucevic still has the potential to be that for us, and that he can be the starting center on a championship contender.

Even if we don't get the other pieces to help elevate us to that level, I think we should all have a bit more appreciation for Nikola and the work he has been putting in for us.

Now we just need Isaac to turn into our Kawhi.. that's a post for another time

/Homer out

[MagicMatic]

[NEM]

I agree that he deserves more praise, but also remember this: the negative is always louder than the positive, making it seem like there are more vooch haters than us normal people. The fact is the guys has improved every year and last year made a jump into being a top 25 player in the league, like it or not. And this summer he was rewarded accordingly.

His contract is 100M/4 years. We are well over the cap, even if his contract was 80M/4 years, so those 5M/year wouldn’t be able to be used elsewhere anyways.

I’m not saying he’s a #1 option on a championship team, but he certainly has a spot being a top 3 player on one. A lot of our success hinges on the development of Isaac, Fultz, and to a lesser extent Gordon and Bamba. Management has shown a willingness to be patient with our young guys, and it paid off last season. There is not evidence to suggest that it won’t continue to pay off this season as well.

I went into last season impatient and wanting Weltman and Hammond gone. In 1 year, they’ve made me eat my words, and in my mind, they have the correct philosophy when it comes to building a sustainable, winning product.

[thelead]

Get buckets in the paint, try hard to rebound, and just try on defense. Those are things he did last year that got away from throughout his tenure here. If he continues to do that, most will support him.

[fendilim]

Oh boy

[Furinkazan]

kidding
kind of

[basketballRob]

I agree that he deserves more praise, but also remember this: the negative is always louder than the positive, making it seem like there are more vooch haters than us normal people. The fact is the guys has improved every year and last year made a jump into being a top 25 player in the league, like it or not. And this summer he was rewarded accordingly.

His contract is 100M/4 years. We are well over the cap, even if his contract was 80M/4 years, so those 5M/year wouldn’t be able to be used elsewhere anyways.

I’m not saying he’s a #1 option on a championship team, but he certainly has a spot being a top 3 player on one. A lot of our success hinges on the development of Isaac, Fultz, and to a lesser extent Gordon and Bamba. Management has shown a willingness to be patient with our young guys, and it paid off last season. There is not evidence to suggest that it won’t continue to pay off this season as well.

I went into last season impatient and wanting Weltman and Hammond gone. In 1 year, they’ve made me eat my words, and in my mind, they have the correct philosophy when it comes to building a sustainable, winning product.

We have more Vuc haters than people that praise him. We did a poll before.

[3ddman23]

I was a huge vuc supporter in his first 2-3 years here in orlando. But I will admit I did sour on him a bit in the Vogel years and was not pleased with his play as a whole. He really impressed me this past season(not playoffs) and I was ok with retaining him and him potentially being the longest tenure magic player. As long as he doesnt regress drastically I think he still has some really good years left in him. Happy to have vuc for a couple more years.

[Bakomagic]

Seems like we have more people complaining about Vuc haters than actual Vuc haters.

With that being said, Vuc improving his defense and perimeter defense was a huge reason for our teams success last year. The next step imo is to improve in drawing free throws (same goes with the rest of the team) while maintaining the previous mentioned improvements.

Glad to have him back.

[PrimeThyme]

If we get last year's Vuc or an even better version for the rest of his time here, I'll be happy. I need to see it first though.

[Max Power]

I’ve been a Vuc fan since year one. He has his flaws but he does everything either well or relatively at this point. He was an 18/10ish guy for his entire run here until last year where health s competent coaching helped him reach his potential. I still think Vuc can improve his scoring a tad and his defense, I think he’ll be inspired to have a better playoff performance.

A lot of the Vuc hate I think is just a frustrated fan base. The best player on a losing team is going to be that target if it isn’t the coach, and that has been Vucevic. I think people just get jaded after so many losing seasons. Now it’s time to be optimistic, Vuc is a great piece but I’d love to see a star form with him. Whether it’s a guy like Gordon or Issac, or maybe a TRoss’ game growing more.

[spinedoc]

Seems like we have more people complaining about Vuc haters than actual Vuc haters.

With that being said, Vuc improving his defense and perimeter defense was a huge reason for our teams success last year. The next step imo is to improve in drawing free throws (same goes with the rest of the team) while maintaining the previous mentioned improvements.

Glad to have him back.

The numbers dramatically went down as Bamba stock also took a hit. There is less certainty that he will take the position and run with it as he's had difficulty staying healthy. The type of injury also had a significant effect, stress fractures to freakishly large athletes make me wince. Its not a garden variety twisted ankle or the like, acute vs potentially chronic. A lot of doubt has entered the picture now.

[yoyojw17]

With all the Fultz talk. The game will change for vuc once you now add that pick n pop.... pick and roll option to the offense. It was one fultz's many strengths coming out of college.... and will definitely be a new flavor for vuc... and many others on this team. So.... i don't think he's really going to truly get better skillwise... but the utilization of his current skills will elevate his overall performance next season.

[MagicStarwipe]

Vucevic... mostly fairly criticised in previous years, mostly fairly praised for his very good season last season. Both can be true. If he plays like he did again last season (minus the playoff no show) then there wont be much to complain about. I'll be watching his rim protection. That's one thing that he noticeably put a lot more effort into last season. Can he keep it up?

[woosah]

I felt the love in that post. Nikoleta, is that you?

[Ducklett]

I actually like Vuc because he has a top tier personality and ethics. I just don't think you give a guy that completely collapsed in the playoffs that big of a contract. I hope he proves me wrong.

[Skin]

Nice transitional player to keep the seat warm until Bamba is ready. Played well in a contract year like most Magic players. Questionable if he ever makes the All Star team again.