Regression...who will slip a bit?

[ezzzp]

If Vuc averages 2 less points per game I won't care. I will care if he regresses on the defensive end.

That's probably the best way to look at it...his rebounding and defensive energy have to stay on par for the Magic to stay at same level as last year.

[ezzzp]

DJ, Ross, Vucevic

[MagicMatic]

Vuc and Ross... the offense...

Progress? Fournier and JI (hopefully AG). Bamba if he can get significant minutes.

[Catledge]

I would like to see if we can win games with Vooch playing a couple mpg less for the first couple of months. I feel like we wore him down a bit during our hot late-season run (because we had to).

[p0peye]

Only regression I care about is W/L column.

[Knightro]

Only regression I care about is W/L column.

This is all that really matters at the end of the day. I want to win more games than last year and earn a higher seed in the playoffs.

[SHAQ32]

I think Ross, Vuc and DJ could slip a bit this year. They all played at such a high level last year.

But luckily I also expect AG, JI, Mo and Wes to get better to hopefully counteract that, and more.

[Furinkazan]

ah time to use immortal and eternal gif

But obviously I agree its going to be Vuc Ross and DJ tho DJ is questionable depending on Fultz and dont forget its DJ contract year.

[Knightro]

I tend to agree with Clifford’s remarks on Vuc.

He did shoot the three better than ever last year, but it wasn’t so much better than it feels unsustainable. He was still under 37%.

Plus he’s going to get plenty of volume to find a rhythm on a nightly basis. I think he’ll be able to play at least very close to last year’s level.

I’m most worried about DJ just because he’s the oldest and sometimes guys just slip on age and mileage alone.

[sportsrock37]

Overall I think all 3 of the veterans will see a decline in numbers but that doesn’t necessarily mean regression, IMO.

I think the key for DJ will be to limit his mins a little more. If Fultz is a contributor play DJ 26, Fultz 22 at PG(potentially give Fultz more at SG). He’s getting up there in age and we need to keep him healthy/fresh. His body takes a beating. Hopefully we won’t have to rely on him for 30+ mins again. He was well above my expectations as a starter last year.

I think Ross will regress a little as well, but we should have much better depth where our bench isn’t screwed when Ross isn’t scoring. He will have his outbursts but I’m not expecting him to hit 20 pts as often as he did last year and he shouldn’t have to.

Like everyone said with Vuc, if he goes down in ppg it’s likely because someone else has stepped up, that’d be a good thing. As long as he rebounds/passes at a high level and continues to improve defensively within the team concepts it will be a good year even if he isn’t an all star.


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[Driguez]

DJ is it, and possibly not a little

[jezzerinho]

Ross' shooting might regress, but given he was not a great contributor at anything other than shooting, I'd be hoping for improvements in other areas. A bit like what Fournier put on the court last year - a drop in shooting but better distribution and defence.

It's not like DJ is a geriatric, he's in good shape (apparently takes very good care of himself) and he'll get better relief with Fultz and MCW than he got for most of last year. He doesn't worry me much.

In short, regression won't be their challenge. Staying as amazingly injury free as they did last year will be.

[Xatticus]

Ross' shooting might regress, but given he was not a great contributor at anything other than shooting, I'd be hoping for improvements in other areas. A bit like what Fournier put on the court last year - a drop in shooting but better distribution and defence.

It's not like DJ is a geriatric, he's in good shape (apparently takes very good care of himself) and he'll get better relief with Fultz and MCW than he got for most of last year. He doesn't worry me much.

In short, regression won't be their challenge. Staying as amazingly injury free as they did last year will be.

I'm not really worried about Ross. His efficiency improved demonstrably over what he had posted with us in his first couple years, but his shooting metrics were right in line with what he posted over the duration of his five years in Toronto. Beyond that, as teams got aggressive in forcing him to receive the ball moving away from the basket, he started to utilize the pick-and-roll to create offense and he was quite effective in running it. I expect to see much more of that next season.

Vucevic is the obvious selection here. His efficiency was exceptional over the first quarter of the season. This buoyed his season-long efficiency metrics. It's a near certainty that his true mean was below his season-long numbers, even if we assume that his 3-point percentage was representative of his true mean (we don't really have enough evidence to suggest that this is the case right now).

The other obvious candidate is Augustin. Believe it or not, this was the first time in his career that he posted above average true shooting percentages in back-to-back seasons in his career. The last two seasons have been the most efficient of his career, but we only need to go back to his first season with Orlando to see his efficiency metrics at well-below league average marks. He posted a -4.93 RPM that season (69th of 71 point guards) and had one of the worst plus/minus totals in the entirety of the league. He has obviously benefited substantially from running the pick-and-roll with Vucevic, but it's quite possible that a lot of those opportunities will be leeched away next season. On top of all of this, he is getting old. I never would've expected him to replicate his 2017/18 numbers, so perhaps he can do so again, but I'm quite skeptical.

This is an aside, but regression, in statistical jargon, doesn't actually mean getting worse. It simply means moving towards the true mean (up or down). For example, Terrence Ross' shooting and scoring efficiency metrics regressed towards their true means this past season.

Samples are representations of larger data sets. It's rather important to understand that we are trying to draw inferences while using a limited amount of data. A good candidate for regression is anyone whose season numbers deviate substantially from their true means. We never actually know the true mean for most things though. True means are not static, as players in varying stages of their careers are improving or declining in ability.

This means that Evan Fournier is a reasonably good candidate to regress upwards next season, but not by a substantial amount. It was a down season for him, but it really wasn't outside of his normal range.