RealGM

We had a great season and our hope is that guys like AG, Bamba, Isaac, and (please) Fultz come out as stars this upcoming season- or at least show significant growth. But several veterans on our team had career seasons last year...which are likely to regress or, at least, slip back into the pack?

The obvious one is Vuc. Solid fundamentally sound player who was given the offensive reins and delivered, while also improving his defensive play. I'm a fan but his numbers dropping a bit would indicate (hopefully) growth among other starters. I don't think Vuc could ever really go into the tank unless a coach changed things to dramatically reduce his impact. So, I don't think he'll be an All-Star but I think his impact will slip a bit for good reasons as he is a solid, stable, reliable piece on an improved team. Having Beal as the offensive hub will also affect Vuc's offensive activity but make us better.

Others to discuss...TRoss, DJ, Iwundu?...who's going to continue like last year and who was a flash?

For a broader topic...who is going to blow up? Fournier is my obvious one - in previous years, he was simply WAY better than last- we know he has it in him. Playing so well in the Worlds should also bolster his confidence.

Given the style of play, Ross is for me the player most likely to regress. If he reverts away from Flame-thrower, Orlando can weather that assuming growth to the other players mentioned.

For Vučević, if he has career average numbers, that still justifies his contract.

Iwundu might also regress. His growth late season needs to be tested to see if it was sustainable growth. Similarly Carter-Williams run late-season might not continue to the early season.

Finally there is Mr. Augustin. He was solid at PG. But he is now aged. If he is a half-step slower on defense, Orlando is screwed. (Unless Fultz steps up).


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Odds are DJ or Ross.
Dj is turning 32 soon , so bit of natural decline will probably take place. Ross had career year by taking some of worst shots you can take, and making them.

Ross due to higher expectations.

Augustin also.

Augustin is the most obvious candidate to me on age alone. He had one of the most efficient shooting years of his career at 31. Can he replicate that at 32? Hopefully!

Ross did have a career year, but he didn't shoot the ball significantly better than his career averages. He mostly maintained his career averages on more volume, so I'm not expecting a big regression there.

Don't see any reason why Ross won't slash .420/.380/.820 with a 55% true shooting.

Dj
Ross
Vucevic
Just three of our biggest contributors

Feels like DJ has been what he is now ever since EP got dealt.

Vuc/TRoss are the only answers imo. Both had career years during contract years. Not saying they will regress but they'd have to be at the top of the likely list imo.

Gotta go with Vuc.

Ross did Ross things at higher than normal volume. Can’t ignore that he was able to scale it up but still.

DJ was stable for us. Nothing he did felt out of comfort or special. Age is a factor but it is just one season later.

Vuc is the only one who really took a major leap forward beyond his norm last year. Is that the new and improved Vuc or a contract year push?

A lot of it depends on the amount of regression and the name on the back of the jersey. If JI's numbers arent as good he'll be forgiven but if Vuc averages 1 less ppg he'll get crucified. In reality, DJ or Ross are the candidates.

Blue_and_Whte wrote: In reality, DJ or Ross are the candidates.

So in reality Vuc isn't a regression candidate in your eyes?

j-ragg wrote:

Blue_and_Whte wrote: In reality, DJ or Ross are the candidates.

So in reality Vuc isn't a regression candidate in your eyes?

Not the most likely candidate. I think what a lot of people would happily and eagerly call "regression" would actually be the result of other players stepping up (Fultz, Fournier, Bambi) and him taking on less of the load. No, DJ and Ross are the mostly likely to see an ACTUAL regression imo.

Blue_and_Whte wrote:

j-ragg wrote:

Blue_and_Whte wrote: In reality, DJ or Ross are the candidates.

So in reality Vuc isn't a regression candidate in your eyes?

Not the most likely candidate. I think what a lot of people would happily and eagerly call "regression" would actually be the result of other players stepping up (Fultz, Fournier, Bambi) and him taking on less of the load. No, DJ and Ross are the mostly likely to see an ACTUAL regression imo.

Understandable. DJ has turned me into a believer these past 2.5 years.

Vuc will be better than he was 2-3 years ago, but not as good as last year.

DJ will wear out his welcome, I think. He had some good games last year, but he would often go games where he was not playing a very good floor game only to hit some big shots at the end and wipe out any negatives he had.

I actually think Ross found his role in the league last year. I could see him having an even bigger year.

I am going to go with Evan. I think he just had an unbelievable run in FIBA play this summer and is going to come in tired.

Blue_and_Whte wrote:A lot of it depends on the amount of regression and the name on the back of the jersey. If JI's numbers arent as good he'll be forgiven but if Vuc averages 1 less ppg he'll get crucified. In reality, DJ or Ross are the candidates.

I don't agree at all. If Isaac's numbers aren't better then they were last year and he regresses he will get ripped to shreds on this board and labeled a bust. As long as Vuc's numbers stay in the same ballpark next year he will be safe. He just has to impact the game in the same way he did last year.

We've had 1 year of sample size from Isaac. We've had 8 years of sample size from Vuc. It's easier to wrap your head around the idea of Vuc regressing after a career season that also happened to come in a contract year then it is to wrap your head around the idea of Isaac regressing in basically his second year.

Dj has alot to play for this season. Could be his last chance at a somewhat longer-term deal in this league. I'm not expecting regression. Ross just had increased usage and his percentages were around what they had been in previous seasons. He should be fine.

If Vuc averages 2 less points per game I won't care. I will care if he regresses on the defensive end.

I completely understand why people are thinking Vuc and Ross, both had huge years on expired contracts. Here’s the thing, is it regression if the guys around them are better or just them gelling as a team? So let’s say for Vuc he’s averaging 20 and 11, and his defense is still solid, but Gordon’s numbers go to 19 and 9 and Issac averages 14 and 7. It’s not necessarily Vuc losing a step but rather guys around him assuming more offensive load. I’d take that. I don’t believe Vuc or Ross will have lost a step. Vuc is an 18 and 10 guy for his career with us anyway, and Ross is always a 12ppg guy, so if they stay in that range I think it’s just they have more help scoring the ball.

Max Power wrote:I completely understand why people are thinking Vuc and Ross, both had huge years on expired contracts. Here’s the thing, is it regression if the guys around them are better or just them gelling as a team? So let’s say for Vuc he’s averaging 20 and 11, and his defense is still solid, but Gordon’s numbers go to 19 and 9 and Issac averages 14 and 7. It’s not necessarily Vuc losing a step but rather guys around him assuming more offensive load. I’d take that. I don’t believe Vuc or Ross will have lost a step. Vuc is an 18 and 10 guy for his career with us anyway, and Ross is always a 12ppg guy, so if they stay in that range I think it’s just they have more help scoring the ball.

Solid post. You articulated what I was trying to say much better. I agree. Of course any of these guys can come in,and **** the bed next season. Who knows.

Blue_and_Whte wrote:

j-ragg wrote:

Blue_and_Whte wrote: In reality, DJ or Ross are the candidates.

So in reality Vuc isn't a regression candidate in your eyes?

Not the most likely candidate. I think what a lot of people would happily and eagerly call "regression" would actually be the result of other players stepping up (Fultz, Fournier, Bambi) and him taking on less of the load. No, DJ and Ross are the mostly likely to see an ACTUAL regression imo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

When we rebuke the motivations of others, we only reveal what is in our own mind.

You're the only person in the thread trying to turn it tribal (as per usual).

My reasonable hope is that Vuc steps back just a bit (in terms of numbers and minutes) because Bamba is earning 20mpg and AG is on an All-Star track...knowing full well that Vuc is available to take over a game offensively at times WHEN NEEDED...that's the team we need to move forward.