Shams: Orlando to redshirt Okeke

[Knightro]

Immediately upon the Magic selecting Okeke in the draft, a 120% cap hold (for 16th pick rookie scale salary) was applied to the Magic's team salary.

In order for the Magic to establish their NBA rights to Okeke, they had to offer him a "required tender" (a contract offer signed by the team) by July 15, 2019. If the Magic had not done that, Okeke would have immediately become an unrestricted free agent and the Magic would be prohibited from signing him anytime in the future.

To postpone that cap hold, the Magic and Okeke both had to agree in writing not to sign that "required tender" until after June 30, 2020. On July 1, 2020 that cap hold immediately goes back onto the Magic salary cap and Okeke can sign the "required tender."

Okeke receives the "applicable" rookie scale for a 16th pick in the 2020 draft. That means that he gains $460,800 more in fully guaranteed money once he signs the "required tender." He can make $1,087,205 more in total salary if all team options are picked up.

Spoiler:

• If Okeke had signed this year

19-20: $3,121,080
20-21: $3,277,080
22-23: $3,433,320 Team Option
23-24: $5,266,713 Team Option
Guaranteed Total: $6,398,160
Potential Total: $15,098,193

• What he'll sign for next summer

20-21: $3,345,840
21-22: $3,513,120
23-24: $3,680,520 Team Option
24-25: $5,645,918 Team Option
Guaranteed Total: $6,858,960
Potential Total: $16,185,398

Rookie scale contracts can not have signing bonuses or performance incentives. Okeke can sign a G-League contract this year (aprox. $50k).

All of this is right *and* on top of all of that, we also don't know how far Okeke would have slipped (and how much $ he would have lost out on) had not gone 16th.

Methinks both sides are benefitting here.

[JBSouthpaw]

Assuming we do sign him to the Lakeland, this was a very smart move by our front office. Keeps the roster spot open, a bit of $$ too.
Allows for in-season addition if needed. Or More.

[MoMM]

I actually think there could be something to this.

If Okeke and his agent knew he was going to slip another 10 to 15 picks, or even slip all the way to the 2nd round, it's actually possible that THEY were the ones incentivizing teams to do a draft and stash so he could lock in mid 1st money instead of late 1st or early 2nd round money.

Okeke gets 4 years, 16M by going 16th rather than 4 years 10M by going in the late 20s. 6M to delay your contract for a year? Seems to make some sense.

Can't think of one other way he says yes.

https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft

He was slated for the late 1st/high 2nd round because of the ACL it appears. I mean... draft.net isn't the be all and end all but still.

According to Weltman there was a team right behind us that was ready to draft him.

Perhaps that wasn't true, perhaps this team would offer the same kind of contract, who knows?

[NavalAviator94]

The only thing I can see is the Magic drafted him with this agreement and he would have slipped to the 2nd round without it.... but...

I actually think there could be something to this.

If Okeke and his agent knew he was going to slip another 10 to 15 picks, or even slip all the way to the 2nd round, it's actually possible that THEY were the ones incentivizing teams to do a draft and stash so he could lock in mid 1st money instead of late 1st or early 2nd round money.

Okeke gets 4 years, 16M by going 16th rather than 4 years 10M by going in the late 20s. 6M to delay your contract for a year? Seems to make some sense.

Nothing else makes sense.


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[NavalAviator94]

Why would Okeke agree to this? Sounds like a great less of getting paid.

Only reason I can think of is he was going to get drafted in the 2nd round unless he agreed to this

I think the answer is they didn’t know when. He wasn’t given a guarantee so it could have been late in the first round or second. This provided the best certainty.


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[ezzzp]

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[Xatticus]

Ok just did the math here... if Okeke had signed this offseason for the standard 120% scale, he'd have made roughly 15M if both of his options got picked up and 22.5M if he got his qualifying offer.

19-20: 3,121,080
20-21: 3,277,080
21-22: 3,433,320 (team option)
22-23: 5,266,712 (team option)
Qualifying Offer: 7,399,730
Total over 4 years: $15,098,192
Total with QO: 22,497,922

By waiting a year and signing in 2020, he'll make approximately 16M over four years and 24M more over five years.

20-21: 3,317,160
21-22: 3,483,120
22-23: 3,649,080 (team option)
23-24: 5,597,688 (team option)
Qualifying Offer: 7,864,751
Total over 4 years: 16,047,048
Total with QO: 23,911,799

Plus I'd imagine Okeke will get the maximum amount for a G-Leaguer to go continue his rehab in Lakeland this year, so probably another 50-100K.

So Okeke is looking at probably 1.1M or so in additional money by delaying his contract a year. And considering he'll only be 25 when he's up for his extension (instead of 24), I highly doubt it will negatively effect him too much.

He is losing money by agreeing to this. He is delaying his path towards free agency and losing a full year of earning potential. That's worth a lot more than $1.1M unless he completely busts before he ever hits free agency.

There is no reason not to get paid while you rehab. Michael Porter Jr. did not agree to this. Harry Giles did not agree to this. There is no chance that I would agree to this if I were representing the 16th pick in the NBA draft. This leads me to believe that his representation floated this before the draft because they were very concerned about whether or not they could secure guaranteed money.

I expect that this is a management team that was trying to make a cash grab on the heels of Okeke's performance in Auburn's tournament run because they were rather pessimistic about his future prospects. He could've returned to school, but that probably wouldn't have helped his draft stock given the timing and nature of his injury. Keep in mind that this is the same injury that derailed Harry Giles' career. Giles is only four months older than Okeke, but he was the consensus top high school player in his class before blowing out his knee. He wasn't the same player after the injury. There really are no guarantees that Okeke returns as the player he was.

I think our management outsmarted themselves here. They essentially traded this year's pick for a worse pick next year (Okeke is probably a late 1st-round or early 2nd-round pick next year if he had returned to school). By that time, you would have a better idea of where Okeke was in his recovery. By declaring this year, Okeke's management team was essentially forcing teams to make a decision based on less information. That they agreed to this deal tells me that they didn't like the feedback they were getting leading up to the draft.

This is all rather confusing. I maintain that I don't really believe our front office has an appreciation for economics. We've taken on substantial risk with all of this and for what? This isn't a high-ceiling prospect.

[Knightro]

He is losing money by agreeing to this. He is delaying his path towards free agency and losing a full year of earning potential. That's worth a lot more than $1.1M unless he completely busts before he ever hits free agency.

There is no reason not to get paid while you rehab. Michael Porter Jr. did not agree to this. Harry Giles did not agree to this. There is no chance that I would agree to this if I were representing the 16th pick in the NBA draft. This leads me to believe that his representation floated this before the draft because they were very concerned about whether or not they could secure guaranteed money.

I expect that this is a management team that was trying to make a cash grab on the heels of Okeke's performance in Auburn's tournament run because they were rather pessimistic about his future prospects. He could've returned to school, but that probably wouldn't have helped his draft stock given the timing and nature of his injury. Keep in mind that this is the same injury that derailed Harry Giles' career. Giles is only four months older than Okeke, but he was the consensus top high school player in his class before blowing out his knee. He wasn't the same player after the injury. There really are no guarantees that Okeke returns as the player he was.

I think our management outsmarted themselves here. They essentially traded this year's pick for a worse pick next year (Okeke is probably a late 1st-round or early 2nd-round pick next year if he had returned to school). By that time, you would have a better idea of where Okeke was in his recovery. By declaring this year, Okeke's management team was essentially forcing teams to make a decision based on less information. That they agreed to this deal tells me that they didn't like the feedback they were getting leading up to the draft.

This is all rather confusing. I maintain that I don't really believe our front office has an appreciation for economics. We've taken on substantial risk with all of this and for what? This isn't a high-ceiling prospect.

My best guess is that Okeke and his people felt like the injury was going to push him down to the bottom of the first round or out of the first round entirely.

With that information in hand, they were the ones who approached teams in the middle of the first round offering them the draft and stash offer and found a more than willing taker in the right up against the tax Orlando Magic.

While it's true that Okeke is going to lose some money by agreeing to delay his path to free agency by a year, he certainly just ensured himself a lot more guaranteed money overall if he and his agent realized he was going to go 15 spots later and convinced the Magic to draft him at 16.

The first pick of the 2nd round, Nic Claxton, got 4.2M total over 3 years and just 2.4M fully guaranteed over 2.

Okeke, even delaying his contract by one year, is going to walk away with a minimum of 6.7M guaranteed and that's if he completely bombs out. The reality is he's very likely going to end up making 16M over four years.

Pretty big difference.

Also, for what it's worth, I don't think it's totally fair to compare Okeke to Giles.

As best I can tell Okeke has only suffered one injury, a torn ACL in his left knee.

Giles has suffered a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus in his left knee *and* a torn ACL in his right knee *and* had another knee scope because of a setback on his left knee that he suffered while he was still rehabbing his right knee.

[Catledge]

Last summer our front office made it clear that they didn't want to add any more development minutes to our already-young roster. It seems likely that they still feel this way, which may be another reason that this plan appealed to them.

With Isaac, AG, and Bamba all looking to expand their games, there is only so much on-the-job learning that a team can sustain while still giving themselves a chance to win.

[ezzzp]

He is losing money by agreeing to this. He is delaying his path towards free agency and losing a full year of earning potential. That's worth a lot more than $1.1M unless he completely busts before he ever hits free agency.

There is no reason not to get paid while you rehab. Michael Porter Jr. did not agree to this. Harry Giles did not agree to this. There is no chance that I would agree to this if I were representing the 16th pick in the NBA draft. This leads me to believe that his representation floated this before the draft because they were very concerned about whether or not they could secure guaranteed money.

I expect that this is a management team that was trying to make a cash grab on the heels of Okeke's performance in Auburn's tournament run because they were rather pessimistic about his future prospects. He could've returned to school, but that probably wouldn't have helped his draft stock given the timing and nature of his injury. Keep in mind that this is the same injury that derailed Harry Giles' career. Giles is only four months older than Okeke, but he was the consensus top high school player in his class before blowing out his knee. He wasn't the same player after the injury. There really are no guarantees that Okeke returns as the player he was.

I think our management outsmarted themselves here. They essentially traded this year's pick for a worse pick next year (Okeke is probably a late 1st-round or early 2nd-round pick next year if he had returned to school). By that time, you would have a better idea of where Okeke was in his recovery. By declaring this year, Okeke's management team was essentially forcing teams to make a decision based on less information. That they agreed to this deal tells me that they didn't like the feedback they were getting leading up to the draft.

This is all rather confusing. I maintain that I don't really believe our front office has an appreciation for economics. We've taken on substantial risk with all of this and for what? This isn't a high-ceiling prospect.

My best guess is that Okeke and his people felt like the injury was going to push him down to the bottom of the first round or out of the first round entirely.

With that information in hand, they were the ones who approached teams in the middle of the first round offering them the draft and stash offer and found a more than willing taker in the right up against the tax Orlando Magic.

While it's true that Okeke is going to lose some money by agreeing to delay his path to free agency by a year, he certainly just ensured himself a lot more guaranteed money overall if he and his agent realized he was going to go 15 spots later and convinced the Magic to draft him at 16.

The first pick of the 2nd round, Nic Claxton, got 4.2M total over 3 years and just 2.4M guaranteed over 2.

Okeke, even delaying his contract by one year, is going to walk away with a minimum of 6.7M guaranteed and that's if he completely bombs out. The reality is he's very likely going to end up making more more like 16M over four years.

Pretty big difference.

Yep, plus he is delaying the 4 year rookie scale cycle, not cutting it short by a year. Okeke still gets 2 fully guaranteed seasons, just like every 1st round pick.

If he signed this year, all that does is get him to restricted free agency one year sooner. But that doesn't mean that he automatically makes more money in the 2023-24 season as a free agent - as opposed to the $5.3m he would make that year on a rookie scale. That sword has two edges, it could just as easily result in him hitting free agency a year too soon.

By delaying the 4 year rookie scale contract cycle, he is actually pushing his restricted free agency a year further away from the ACL injury...AND a year deeper into his player development - closer to his prime...hence potentially improving his salary opportunities when he hits restricted free agency.

[Magic_Johnny12]

Ok just did the math here... if Okeke had signed this offseason for the standard 120% scale, he'd have made roughly 15M if both of his options got picked up and 22.5M if he got his qualifying offer.

19-20: 3,121,080
20-21: 3,277,080
21-22: 3,433,320 (team option)
22-23: 5,266,712 (team option)
Qualifying Offer: 7,399,730
Total over 4 years: $15,098,192
Total with QO: 22,497,922

By waiting a year and signing in 2020, he'll make approximately 16M over four years and 24M more over five years.

20-21: 3,317,160
21-22: 3,483,120
22-23: 3,649,080 (team option)
23-24: 5,597,688 (team option)
Qualifying Offer: 7,864,751
Total over 4 years: 16,047,048
Total with QO: 23,911,799

Plus I'd imagine Okeke will get the maximum amount for a G-Leaguer to go continue his rehab in Lakeland this year, so probably another 50-100K.

So Okeke is looking at probably 1.1M or so in additional money by delaying his contract a year. And considering he'll only be 25 when he's up for his extension (instead of 24), I highly doubt it will negatively effect him too much.

He is losing money by agreeing to this. He is delaying his path towards free agency and losing a full year of earning potential. That's worth a lot more than $1.1M unless he completely busts before he ever hits free agency.

There is no reason not to get paid while you rehab. Michael Porter Jr. did not agree to this. Harry Giles did not agree to this. There is no chance that I would agree to this if I were representing the 16th pick in the NBA draft. This leads me to believe that his representation floated this before the draft because they were very concerned about whether or not they could secure guaranteed money.

I expect that this is a management team that was trying to make a cash grab on the heels of Okeke's performance in Auburn's tournament run because they were rather pessimistic about his future prospects. He could've returned to school, but that probably wouldn't have helped his draft stock given the timing and nature of his injury. Keep in mind that this is the same injury that derailed Harry Giles' career. Giles is only four months older than Okeke, but he was the consensus top high school player in his class before blowing out his knee. He wasn't the same player after the injury. There really are no guarantees that Okeke returns as the player he was.

I think our management outsmarted themselves here. They essentially traded this year's pick for a worse pick next year (Okeke is probably a late 1st-round or early 2nd-round pick next year if he had returned to school). By that time, you would have a better idea of where Okeke was in his recovery. By declaring this year, Okeke's management team was essentially forcing teams to make a decision based on less information. That they agreed to this deal tells me that they didn't like the feedback they were getting leading up to the draft.

This is all rather confusing. I maintain that I don't really believe our front office has an appreciation for economics. We've taken on substantial risk with all of this and for what? This isn't a high-ceiling prospect.

OR a top 5 pick, see how that changes everything.

Remember, Orlando gave Porzingis a promise at #11 to enter the draft early and was mocked to go late lottery, he wisely decided to come out the following year and was drafted #4

Looking at the draft class next year I could easily see a scenario where Okeke is drafted top 10.

You compare Okeke's injury with Giles? Seriously lol?

Harry Giles tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee. He later tore his right ACL as a high school senior. Giles then had another procedure to clean up his left knee in October of 2016.

You're comparing apples to oranges brother.

[OrlandO]

free year of development... sounds good

[pepe1991]

Ok just did the math here... if Okeke had signed this offseason for the standard 120% scale, he'd have made roughly 15M if both of his options got picked up and 22.5M if he got his qualifying offer.

19-20: 3,121,080
20-21: 3,277,080
21-22: 3,433,320 (team option)
22-23: 5,266,712 (team option)
Qualifying Offer: 7,399,730
Total over 4 years: $15,098,192
Total with QO: 22,497,922

By waiting a year and signing in 2020, he'll make approximately 16M over four years and 24M more over five years.

20-21: 3,317,160
21-22: 3,483,120
22-23: 3,649,080 (team option)
23-24: 5,597,688 (team option)
Qualifying Offer: 7,864,751
Total over 4 years: 16,047,048
Total with QO: 23,911,799

Plus I'd imagine Okeke will get the maximum amount for a G-Leaguer to go continue his rehab in Lakeland this year, so probably another 50-100K.

So Okeke is looking at probably 1.1M or so in additional money by delaying his contract a year. And considering he'll only be 25 when he's up for his extension (instead of 24), I highly doubt it will negatively effect him too much.

He is losing money by agreeing to this. He is delaying his path towards free agency and losing a full year of earning potential. That's worth a lot more than $1.1M unless he completely busts before he ever hits free agency.

There is no reason not to get paid while you rehab. Michael Porter Jr. did not agree to this. Harry Giles did not agree to this. There is no chance that I would agree to this if I were representing the 16th pick in the NBA draft. This leads me to believe that his representation floated this before the draft because they were very concerned about whether or not they could secure guaranteed money.

I expect that this is a management team that was trying to make a cash grab on the heels of Okeke's performance in Auburn's tournament run because they were rather pessimistic about his future prospects. He could've returned to school, but that probably wouldn't have helped his draft stock given the timing and nature of his injury. Keep in mind that this is the same injury that derailed Harry Giles' career. Giles is only four months older than Okeke, but he was the consensus top high school player in his class before blowing out his knee. He wasn't the same player after the injury. There really are no guarantees that Okeke returns as the player he was.

I think our management outsmarted themselves here. They essentially traded this year's pick for a worse pick next year (Okeke is probably a late 1st-round or early 2nd-round pick next year if he had returned to school). By that time, you would have a better idea of where Okeke was in his recovery. By declaring this year, Okeke's management team was essentially forcing teams to make a decision based on less information. That they agreed to this deal tells me that they didn't like the feedback they were getting leading up to the draft.

This is all rather confusing. I maintain that I don't really believe our front office has an appreciation for economics. We've taken on substantial risk with all of this and for what? This isn't a high-ceiling prospect.

OR a top 5 pick, see how that changes everything.

Remember, Orlando gave Porzingis a promise at #11 to enter the draft early and was mocked to go late lottery, he wisely decided to come out the following year and was drafted #4

Looking at the draft class next year I could easily see a scenario where Okeke is drafted top 10.

You compare Okeke's injury with Giles? Seriously lol?

Harry Giles tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee. He later tore his right ACL as a high school senior. Giles then had another procedure to clean up his left knee in October of 2016.

You're comparing apples to oranges brother.

Porzingis didn't turn down Magic because he had torn ACL but because he didn't felt ready to play in NBA as 18 years old kid who weighted around 200 pounds that year ,standing at 7'1.

Okeke, born in August of 1998 would never be drafted in top 5 based on age alone, as kids like Anthony Edwards and James Wiesman are full 3 calendar years younger than him.
I just went through some mock drafts for 2020 and not a single player projected to be drafted in lottery is even born in 1999 let alone 1998. That's just flat out old for rookie. One of key reasons why teams shy away from older rookies is because it gives them less time to develop them. Guys like Wes Jonhson, MCW, Napier and Kriss Dunn are some of negative examples why it's fine to stay away from older prospects in lottery. There are some positive ones ( Curry) but overall age matters to rebuilding team.

I've said it on draft night and i will say it again, Okeke would not be drafted in top 20, and perhaps not even in first round if Magic didn't draft him because teams don't like to take injuried players. Michael Porter Jr, Noel,Harry Giles and Bol are best examples of it. Bol is probably best example as guy went from lottery to second round pick. Porter was once viewed as 1# pick.

Torn ACL is torn ACL, Painful , requests surgery and you are out of sport for around a year. You can downplay how serious that is all you want, but there is good reason why pro teams shy away from drafting injuried players.

[PrimeThyme]

Claiming Okeke had the potential to be a top 5 pick is the most homer comment of all time. Okeke and his own management didn't even think he would be a lottery pick hence why they floated this proposition out to teams.

[Knightro]

Claiming Okeke had the potential to be a top 5 pick is the most homer comment of all time. Okeke and his own management didn't even think he would be a lottery pick hence why they floated this proposition out to teams.

He didn't have top 5 potential, no.

But obviously the only reason his team didn't think he'd go in the lottery is because of his injury.

If he doesn't get hurt, it's not out of the question he's drafted as high as... 12th? 9th?

I mean he got picked 16th anyway even with a torn ACL. It stands to reason with no injury concerns he could have gone a few picks higher.

[PrimeThyme]

Claiming Okeke had the potential to be a top 5 pick is the most homer comment of all time. Okeke and his own management didn't even think he would be a lottery pick hence why they floated this proposition out to teams.

He didn't have top 5 potential, no.

But obviously the only reason his team didn't think he'd go in the lottery is because of his injury.

If he doesn't get hurt, it's not out of the question he's drafted as high as... 12th? 9th?

I mean he got picked 16th anyway even with a torn ACL. It stands to reason with no injury concerns he could have gone a few picks higher.

We can't evaluate him as the prospect he was pre-injury. Chances are he would have missed at the very least half to 3/4ths of the college basketball season next year and who knows how he would have looked once he came back. There is no certainty that he would have been a lottery pick or even a first-rounder and his management recognized that. They capitalized on his tourney run and still got him drafted by a team as high as they did with that performance fresh in their mind.

Who knows where he would have been drafted, but I still lean towards us having made a giant reach at 16 and i'm not convinced he would have been a first-rounder.

[Knightro]

We can't evaluate him as the prospect he was pre-injury. Chances are he would have missed at the very least half to 3/4ths of the college basketball season next year and who knows how he would have looked once he came back. There is no certainty that he would have been a lottery pick or even a first-rounder and his management recognized that. They capitalized on his tourney run and still got him drafted by a team as high as they did with that performance fresh in their mind.

Who knows where he would have been drafted, but I still lean towards us having made a giant reach at 16 and i'm not convinced he would have been a first-rounder.

I'm just curious as to why we can't evaluate him as the prospect he was pre-injury? I think we may be talking about slightly different things here.

All I'm suggesting is that based on what Okeke did last year leading directly up to his knee injury, I think there's a great chance he would have been picked in the back half of the lottery in the 2019 draft had that knee injury not happened.

I'm pretty confident Okeke had already made up his mind to declare for the draft before the game got injured.

[PrimeThyme]

We can't evaluate him as the prospect he was pre-injury. Chances are he would have missed at the very least half to 3/4ths of the college basketball season next year and who knows how he would have looked once he came back. There is no certainty that he would have been a lottery pick or even a first-rounder and his management recognized that. They capitalized on his tourney run and still got him drafted by a team as high as they did with that performance fresh in their mind.

Who knows where he would have been drafted, but I still lean towards us having made a giant reach at 16 and i'm not convinced he would have been a first-rounder.

I'm just curious as to why we can't evaluate him as the prospect he was pre-injury? I think we may be talking about slightly different things here.

All I'm suggesting is that based on what Okeke did last year leading directly up to his knee injury, I think there's a great chance he would have been picked in the back half of the lottery in the 2019 draft had that knee injury not happened.

I'm pretty confident Okeke had already made up his mind to declare for the draft before the game got injured.

My comment was directed at a poster earlier in this thread that said had Okeke come back next year he was confident he would have been a top 10 pick or higher. I don't see a world where that would have happened and I don't think Okeke or his management team did either.

Everything you are saying about Okeke pre-injury may be true, && had we drafted a healthy Okeke at 16 this pick may have sat better with me but the injury and all the circumstances surrounding it changes things in a big way.

[Knightro]

My comment was directed at a poster earlier in this thread that said had Okeke come back next year he was confident he would have been a top 10 pick or higher. I don't see a world where that would have happened and I don't think Okeke or his management team did either.

That I agree with.

He wouldn't have ever returned to school anyway, but a junior coming off a serious injury like that, there's no way he'd have gone any higher.