Lowe: 30 teams rated from top contenders to bottom tier (Magic 11th)

[Knightro]

Here's the Magic part...

The Magic have every power forward in the league, and cannot expect D.J. Augustin to duplicate what stands as a career scoring season by almost laughable margins. (Augustin shot 51% on 2s last season. His prior career mark: 43%.) Their backup point guards are Michael Carter-Williams and a dude who shot free throws like this 11 months ago.

It is smart to view any scorching late-season run -- Orlando finished 21-9 and had the league's top defense after Feb. 1 -- with a little skepticism, since half the league stops trying around then. That run coincided with Khem Birch supplanting Mo Bamba, but Steve Clifford already announced Bamba has won the backup center job back. OK!

I trust Orlando's continuity. There are no red flags indicating their defense was fool's gold. Clifford builds an infrastructure that beats every bad team and steals some wins against superior ones: force midrangers, protect the glass, prevent fast breaks, don't foul. I have faith in the Aaron Gordon midcareer leap.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

[Max Power]

Aside from the condescending tone of this post, it’s pretty spot on about Clifford and hopefully Aaron Gordon’s leap. We need another guy to “Star Up” the way Vucevic did last season. A best case scenario sees Gordon do that and Issac get into that 15 ppg 8 rebound range. Anything good and consistent from Fultz, MCW and Bamba along with Vuc, Ross, Evan and DJ generally being themselves and this team can conceivably win the division again and approach 50 wins. The key of course is staying on course defensively, keeping turnovers low and health.

[MagicMatic]

Lowe is the best. You can tell he likes the Magic whenever he brings them up. The first two paragraphs are basically how I feel about this team, sans a Fultz emergence.

Lowe then goes on to basically say “They have Clifford and defensive continuity, so they have that going for them. Oh yeah and AG could get better.” Sounds about right.

[j-ragg]

I think even if we are underwhelmed at the final win total, Cliff’s system makes it so you’re in every game. I don’t have any data to back this up but it feels like blowouts have been/will be few and far between compared to previous years. With his defense first/low turnover philosophy.

Should come down to health more than anything. We had an outlier year last year for being healthy. If it happens again this year maybe we start getting some credit around the league like the Suns medical staff did, but I suspect we won’t be as lucky this season.

[Knightro]

I think even if we are underwhelmed at the final win total, Cliff’s system makes it so you’re in every game. I don’t have any data to back this up but it feels like blowouts have been/will be few and far between compared to previous years. With his defense first/low turnover philosophy.

Should come down to health more than anything. We had an outlier year last year for being healthy. If it happens again this year maybe we start getting some credit around the league like the Suns medical staff did, but I suspect we won’t be as lucky this season.

The Magic definitely had their share of blowout losses early in the year. They got beat by 32, 22, 25, 25, 22, 25, 39, 25, 24 all before the calendar turned to 2019.

But after January 1st, they didn't have a single 20 point blowout loss the rest of the year.

[Def Swami]

Shouts out to the mid-tier!

[MagicFan101]

This is a positive sign but it is also dangerous.

This is a necessary step in getting back to being a conference leader but it is also the worst possible place to be for an extended period of time.

Being in the #11-15 range in the league has to be a very short lived role.

With that said ... I like seeing some positive recognition from the outside!

[PrimeThyme]

People are really really high on Miami this year. The vast majority of preseason power rankings I have seen ranks them in the top 15. I generally see us ranked in the 20-22 range. I guess I'm just not all the way bought into them like everybody else seems to be. If you get 2016-2017 Jimmy Butler that had 13.8 Win shares and a 6.9 bpm I could see how this team could get to 45 plus wins but even that Bulls team with a comparable roster finished 41-41.

Are they expecting Bam to take a huge jump? Idk, they say we have a lack of 3pt shooting/spacing but this Miami team seems to really lack it. Maybe I'm just a homer, but I like our chances this year over a team like Miami. I'm not saying they won't make the playoffs but I'm not convinced they are this guaranteed top 5 seed.

[Xatticus]

People are really really high on Miami this year. The vast majority of preseason power rankings I have seen ranks them in the top 15. I generally see us ranked in the 20-22 range. I guess I'm just not all the way bought into them like everybody else seems to be. If you get 2016-2017 Jimmy Butler that had 13.8 Win shares and a 6.9 bpm I could see how this team could get to 45 plus wins but even that Bulls team with a comparable roster finished 41-41.

Are they expecting Bam to take a huge jump? Idk, they say we have a lack of 3pt shooting/spacing but this Miami team seems to really lack it. Maybe I'm just a homer, but I like our chances this year over a team like Miami. I'm not saying they won't make the playoffs but I'm not convinced they are this guaranteed top 5 seed.

I really like their core. Richardson had a really good year, so I'm not expecting a huge bump from the addition of Butler, though he will certainly help. They will get a lot of really good minutes from Adebayo, Olynyk, and Winslow, but I just don't see enough quality on that roster to fill out a solid rotation. Dragic really has to bounce back and they must stay injury free.

[j-ragg]

I think even if we are underwhelmed at the final win total, Cliff’s system makes it so you’re in every game. I don’t have any data to back this up but it feels like blowouts have been/will be few and far between compared to previous years. With his defense first/low turnover philosophy.

Should come down to health more than anything. We had an outlier year last year for being healthy. If it happens again this year maybe we start getting some credit around the league like the Suns medical staff did, but I suspect we won’t be as lucky this season.

But after January 1st, they didn't have a single 20 point blowout loss the rest of the year.

That's kinda impressive in itself.

[neuraldarwinism]

good spot to be for now with several young players still having higher variability left