My ranking of the four top guards right now. All stats are per 40 minutes.
1. LaMelo Ball
21.9 PTS, 10.2 REB, 8.7 AST, 1.9 STL, 0.1 BLK, 3.2 TO, 3.3 PF
.387 FG% on 20.8 FGA, .279 3PT% on 8.4 3PTA, .700 FT% on 4.9 FTA
I think Ball is the best overall mix of basketball skill and physical tools in the draft. He's the best passer in the draft for my money with a 2.72 AST/TO ratio at age 18 as the youngest player in the NBL. He's also a special rebounder and should be one of the best rebounding guards in the league quickly. And he did all that on a 6'8" frame. Being able to handle and pass so effectively at that height is a big selling point for me.
On the downside, Ball's shot selection is particularly poor and his insistence on taking difficult shots definitely drags his efficiency way down. He's also not a very good finisher or defender right now because of his lack of vertical pop, but I'm optimistic both of those things can improve because of his size and frame.
2. Tyrese Haliburton
16.6 PTS, 6.4 REB, 7.0 AST, 2.7 STL, 0.7 BLK, 3.0 TO, 1.4 PF
.504 FG% on 17.2 FGA, .419 3PT% on 6.1 3PTA, .822 FT% on 2.2 FTA
Halliburton is another excellent passer like Ball with a 2.33 AST/TO ratio. I am fully sold on his awareness, basketball IQ and unselfishness translating on both ends of the floor. The jumper is a little mechanical, but hard to argue with the results. Haliburton also seems to find the ball a lot. His REB, STL and BLK rates are all strong for a point guard.
My main concern with Halliburton is his slight frame, lack of strength and lack of vertical pop. He's shorter and lighter than Ball and just wasn't really all that effective inside the arc (poor finisher, extremely low FT rate) in two years at Iowa State. I just don't see him really getting that much stronger which will likely become even more apparent at the next level and limits his overall scoring upside.
3. Killian Hayes
18.7 PTS, 4.6 REB, 8.7 AST, 2.4 STL, 0.4 BLK, 5.2 TO, 4.8 PF
.482 FG% on 13.9 FGA, .294 3PT% on 5.0 3PTA, .876 FT% on 4.4 FTA
Hayes doesn't quite have the elite passing efficiency of Ball or Haliburton at 1.7 AST/TO, but his team absolutely spammed pick and rolls which provided him hundreds of valuable reps and it shows. His 3PT shot isn't where it needs to be, but his FT stroke is so pure that I'm confident it will develop. I also really like Hayes' length + frame and think he could become (he's not there yet) a really effective point-of-attack defender.
Hayes is essentially a one-handed player right now. I watched tape after tape and he simply did not go to his right hand... like ever. Combine that with a lack of vertical pop (noticing a trend here?) and you have another guy who isn't a great finisher. Hayes also oddly shot much better from three off the bounce than he did off the catch and shoot, which is the opposite of most young players.
4. Anthony Edwards
23.1 PTS, 6.3 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.7 BLK, 3.3 TO, 2.6 PF
.402 FG% on 19.1 FGA, .294 3PT% on 9.3 3PTA, .772 FT% on 6.5 FTA
Edwards absolutely looks the part of elite NBA SG and he has the ideal combo of strength and vertical athleticism you're looking for in a high end prospect. I like his 3PT volume and his ability to get to the FT line. I love his potential as a finisher because of his power game. He *should* benefit from additional spacing at the next level. Everything about him screams future all-star... except his actual production.
It's probably to be expected since he's a SG and not a PG like the other three, but Edwards is just lagging significantly behind the other three top guards in nuance. He was just very underwhelming in many areas at Georgia - specifically decision making, shot selection, seeing the floor and making quick reads. I think he'll step right in and score points next year, but it might be a while until he positively impacts winning games.
I believe Ball and Edwards will both be gone in the first three picks, but I think it's absolutely possible the Magic could use Gordon and 15 to make an aggressive move up for one of Hayes or Haliburton.