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Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread

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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#821 » by zaymon » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:28 am

Knightro wrote:
Skin wrote:I don't think he's can't miss either, but he's the best option for us in the draft imo.


Again, not disagreeing. There's certainly the possibility, however unlikely, that Edwards could become a Mitchell/Oladipo type of scoring guard.

Just not sure how the Magic could realistically get into a position to acquire him.

I don't think Gordon and 16 is going to be enough the Magic into the top 5 (if it is, I'd do it) and I wouldn't be comfortable giving up one or multiple additional first round picks for a guy I'm not totally convinced is going to reach his ceiling.

To have a high usage roll, you have to be a good ball handler, passer and decision maker. Edwards is none. He will propably end up as an ineffective scorer who raises your floor ( if he gets better) but not the ceiling. I would rather draft Bolmaro, Lewis or Maledon at our pick
Bold Predictions:
1. Deandre Ayton biggest disappointment of 2018 draft.
2. Nick Nurse becomes Orlando Magic Head Coach. (15.04.2018)
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#822 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:40 am

Outside of lacking explosiveness/first step, someone tell me what I'm missing in Saddiq Bey? I feel like I've maybe been underrating him a bit.

It sure seems like he checks a lot of the boxes any team would want out a modern two-way wing.

It's hard not to be a believer in his jumper. I really like his mechanics and the quickness of his release. It's hard to argue with the results either - 42% on 306 college three point attempts.

He's not going to leave defenders in the dust off the dribble in isolation, but he can attack closeouts and make good decisions with his passing. I'm not ready to call him a capable secondary creator, but I think that possibility exists in time.

Defensively, I actually don't think he's quite as good as the scouting reports suggest. He's low STL% and low BLK%, but he's not a bad defender and the potential is there for more. He's not abnormally long - 6'10" wingspan 6'8" - but he's got a big frame, positional size, good strength and enough quickness to hypothetically become a real plus defender.



I think would be comfortable with him at 15/16 depending on who else is out there. He doesn't solve Orlando's need for shot creation, but the Magic also need shot makers and I don't think Bey is nearly as much of a black hole Nesmith.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#823 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:58 am

zaymon wrote:To have a high usage roll, you have to be a good ball handler, passer and decision maker. Edwards is none. He will propably end up as an ineffective scorer who raises your floor ( if he gets better) but not the ceiling. I would rather draft Bolmaro, Lewis or Maledon at our pick


I don't think Edwards' handle is *that* bad, but I agree that he didn't show much passing or ball handling chops at UGA.

Whoever drafts Edwards is hoping he can translate as a scorer right away while increasing his efficiency and developing the playmaking for others part in due time.

I could easily see Edwards taking a few years to become a positive impact player. Oladipo didn't become a net positive in the NBA until he was 23.

Edwards is still only 18.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#824 » by The Effect » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:28 am

Knightro wrote:Outside of lacking explosiveness/first step, someone tell me what I'm missing in Saddiq Bey? I feel like I've maybe been underrating him a bit.

It sure seems like he checks a lot of the boxes any team would want out a modern two-way wing.

It's hard not to be a believer in his jumper. I really like his mechanics and the quickness of his release. It's hard to argue with the results either - 42% on 306 college three point attempts.

He's not going to leave defenders in the dust off the dribble in isolation, but he can attack closeouts and make good decisions with his passing. I'm not ready to call him a capable secondary creator, but I think that possibility exists in time.

Defensively, I actually don't think he's quite as good as the scouting reports suggest. He's low STL% and low BLK%, but he's not a bad defender and the potential is there for more. He's not abnormally long - 6'10" wingspan 6'8" - but he's got a big frame, positional size, good strength and enough quickness to hypothetically become a real plus defender.



I think would be comfortable with him at 15/16 depending on who else is out there. He doesn't solve Orlando's need for shot creation, but the Magic also need shot makers and I don't think Bey is nearly as much of a black hole Nesmith.

Unless he can somehow become a big G, i dont see him here. Not to say i wouldnt like him on the team, hes one of my favorites and hes such a fun player to watch with the potential to be a very good player, but, we are jammed at the 3/4 spots. If Gordon is still here, we will have AG\JI\Chuma\Iwundu\$10m a year Aminu\ and sometimes TRoss all spending some time at the 3 spot and still wont have an answer at SG. Not saying we HAVE to draft a SG, just saying we will have quite the logjam at the 3.

Now if we trade AG* and use that to fill the SG or backup PG roles, then yeah id be all in favor of bey


*i keep talking about trading AG, but i honestly dont want to trade him. He might be my favorite player on the team, and i hope we keep him for a LONG time, but mention it because it seems like a forgone conclusion that WeHam are going to move him
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#825 » by Skin » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:11 am

Knightro wrote:Outside of lacking explosiveness/first step, someone tell me what I'm missing in Saddiq Bey? I feel like I've maybe been underrating him a bit.

It sure seems like he checks a lot of the boxes any team would want out a modern two-way wing.

It's hard not to be a believer in his jumper. I really like his mechanics and the quickness of his release. It's hard to argue with the results either - 42% on 306 college three point attempts.

He's not going to leave defenders in the dust off the dribble in isolation, but he can attack closeouts and make good decisions with his passing. I'm not ready to call him a capable secondary creator, but I think that possibility exists in time.

Defensively, I actually don't think he's quite as good as the scouting reports suggest. He's low STL% and low BLK%, but he's not a bad defender and the potential is there for more. He's not abnormally long - 6'10" wingspan 6'8" - but he's got a big frame, positional size, good strength and enough quickness to hypothetically become a real plus defender.



I think would be comfortable with him at 15/16 depending on who else is out there. He doesn't solve Orlando's need for shot creation, but the Magic also need shot makers and I don't think Bey is nearly as much of a black hole Nesmith.

Good college player, but honestly, I see him as a JAG (just a guy). He's already 21 so that's not great, but what disappoints me most is that I think he's got limited athleticism. 6'10 wingspan for a SF is not really something to write home about. Oubre has a 7'3 wingspan WITH athleticism so that's a comparison. So limited athleticism, avg length.... kinda seems to me that's the reason why he's not a good defender or rebounder. Not a playmaker for others either. He was coached very well at Villanova, but Jay Wright tends to get the most out of his players... and I'm starting to wonder if they just look good in his system.

If I thought he could play some SG then I would like the pick more, but I don't see it. I know you're just trying to find a new name to talk about and that's cool. Sometimes there are guys right in front of your face that have been there the whole time and when you rewatch them you think you've noticed something new and that gets exciting. I've done that a few times just to circle back around... liking them and then not liking them again... few guys later in the draft that I did that too... f Elijah Hughes, Tyrell Terry, Jordan Nwora, etc.

Tell me what you think of Cassius Stanley. He's a 2nd round guy but I love his upside.
Fultz, _____, Okeke, Isaac, Bamba. LET'S GO!
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#826 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:35 pm

The Effect wrote:Unless he can somehow become a big G, i dont see him here. Not to say i wouldnt like him on the team, hes one of my favorites and hes such a fun player to watch with the potential to be a very good player, but, we are jammed at the 3/4 spots. If Gordon is still here, we will have AG\JI\Chuma\Iwundu\$10m a year Aminu\ and sometimes TRoss all spending some time at the 3 spot and still wont have an answer at SG. Not saying we HAVE to draft a SG, just saying we will have quite the logjam at the 3.

Now if we trade AG* and use that to fill the SG or backup PG roles, then yeah id be all in favor of bey

*i keep talking about trading AG, but i honestly dont want to trade him. He might be my favorite player on the team, and i hope we keep him for a LONG time, but mention it because it seems like a forgone conclusion that WeHam are going to move him


I get what you're saying and from a practical standpoint you're not wrong. If Bey can't play the 2, then the Magic would have an even bigger glut of 3/4 forwards than they already have and he might not be able to get minutes right away.

But I don't look at the draft that way for a couple of reasons.

The Magic don't have a star player, so there's no incentive to select kids in the draft who have skill sets that complement the star player.

Beyond the lack of a star, Orlando is also a pretty much maxed out 38-42 win team as presently constructed. There's really no one outside of Isaac (who obviously has injury issues) who I would consider a legitimate building block.

So with those two things in mind, my mentality when looking at draft prospects shifts to questions like

-Does Player X have the tools to become a quality starting guard, wing, big in the NBA in due time?
-What percentage chance will Player X reach his full potential as a player?

If the answer to question one is yes and the percentage in question two is pretty good, then I find myself a lot less concerned about position because the Magic could trade every single player on their roster without blinking.

Now obviously this doesn't necessarily mesh with the way that Weltman and Hammond have opted to build the team in terms of trades/lack thereof and free agent signings, but they have typically avoided drafting for need in favor of BPA.

I actually think the Magic have the right strategy with the draft, but they've opted to pair it with a bit of a perplexing free agency strategy and no supplemental trades to balance out the roster.

Until those two things change, we're staring at roster crunches no matter what position they pick in this upcoming draft unless they let Augustin and MCW both walk and draft a PG.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#827 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:48 pm

Skin wrote:Good college player, but honestly, I see him as a JAG (just a guy). He's already 21 so that's not great, but what disappoints me most is that I think he's got limited athleticism. 6'10 wingspan for a SF is not really something to write home about. Oubre has a 7'3 wingspan WITH athleticism so that's a comparison. So limited athleticism, avg length.... kinda seems to me that's the reason why he's not a good defender or rebounder. Not a playmaker for others either. He was coached very well at Villanova, but Jay Wright tends to get the most out of his players... and I'm starting to wonder if they just look good in his system.

If I thought he could play some SG then I would like the pick more, but I don't see it. I know you're just trying to find a new name to talk about and that's cool. Sometimes there are guys right in front of your face that have been there the whole time and when you rewatch them you think you've noticed something new and that gets exciting. I've done that a few times just to circle back around... liking them and then not liking them again... few guys later in the draft that I did that too... f Elijah Hughes, Tyrell Terry, Jordan Nwora, etc.

Tell me what you think of Cassius Stanley. He's a 2nd round guy but I love his upside.


Yeah I don't think Bey has a huge star upside either, but I do disagree with some of the other stuff you said.

Bey's usage jumped significantly from a very low 14.4% as a freshman to 22.8% in Year 2, yet his turnovers remained flat and his scoring efficiency actually went up. That's a good sign of development with the ball in his hands for me. I think Bey's playmaking has come along quite nicely in two years at Villanova. His AST% jumped to 14.9% as a soph, up from 8.6% as a freshman.

2020 NBA Draft Wing Comparison

Age
Okoro 19 years, 7 months
Green 19 years, 8 months
Vassell 19 years, 11 months
Nesmith 20 years, 9 months
Bey 21 years, 3 months

Measurables
Green 6'6" height, 6'10" 1/4 wingspan, 210 lbs
Bey 6'8" height, 6'10" wingspan, 216 lbs
Vassell 6'7" height, 6'10" wingspan, 197 lbs
Nesmith 6'6" height, 6'10" wingspan, 213 lbs
Okoro 6'6" height, 6'9" wingspan, 225 lbs

Playmaking
Josh Green 16.0 AST% and 12.6 TO%, +3.4%
Saddiq Bey 14.9 AST% and 10.1 TO%, +4.8%
Isaac Okoro 13.1 AST% 15.2 TO%, -2.1%
Devin Vassell 11.2 AST%, 6.6 TO%, +4.6%
Aaron Nesmith 6.9 AST%, 9.3 TO%, -2.4%

Shooting
Nesmith .410 3PT% on 290 attempts, .825 FT% on 143 attempts, .685 TS%, .561 3PT rate .307 FT rate
Bey .418 3PT% on 306 attempts, .728 FT% on 136 attempts, .608 TS%, .477 3PT rate, .248 FT rate
Vassell .417 3PT% on 168 attempts, .720 FT% on 93 attempts, .585 TS% .361 3PT%, .221 FT rate
Green .361 3PT% on 83 attempts, .780 FT% on 109 attempts, .528 TS%. .288 3PT rate, .378 FT rate
Okoro .286 3PT% on 70 attempts, .672 FT% on 134 attempts, .587 TS% .288 3PT rate, .551 FT rate

Defense
Vassell 6.9% combined STL/BLK, 1.7 DWS, 4.2 DBPM
Green 4.4% combined STL/BLK, 1.9 DWS, 4.1 DBPM
Okoro 4.8% combined STL/BLK, 1.1 DWS, 2.5 DBPM
Bey 2.5% combined STL/BLK, 1.4 DWS, 1.9 DBPM
Nesmith 4.9% combined STL/BLK, 0.4 DWS, 0.4 DBPM

Vassell is the most impactful defender by a wide margin and also an excellent shooter, but his complete inability to draw free throws (just 93 FTA in two full seasons) give me pause if he will ever become anything more than a pure 3&D guy. He's probably the safest, highest floor guy of the bunch, but I don't see a huge upside. I'd definitely pick him at 16 if he made it there though.

Nesmith is the best pure shooter of the bunch, but he doesn't really do anything else well at all. He's the worst defender and worst playmaker of the group. Plus he played against the weakest competition overall. That shooting is a certainly weapon and every team can use an efficient high volume three point shooter, but he feels more like a specialist off the bench than a two-way starting caliber player. I think there will be better all-around players on the board at 16.

Okoro has nice tools, but I personally just don't know if I buy him as a top 10 pick. The production just wasn't there. I do like him as an active, physical defender and I really like him as a finisher around the rim, but wings who can't shoot are so dicey. You'd have to be really confident that element of his game would develop. I have a feeling if he fell to 16 that Weltman would trip over himself to get the card in. I like his feel for the game, but you're just not going to be an effective NBA wing without shooting ability and I just don't know if that's going to develop or not. He's just not a guy I would be super interested in picking.

Bey, to me, is a more well-rounded version of Nesmith. He's a plus shooter like Nesmith, but I think he's a much better passer, defender and finisher than Nesmith. Now that said, he's lagging behind Okoro, Vassell and Green as a defender (and behind Okoro and Green as a finisher), but I don't think he's going to be a total negative on that end either.

I really like Green as an option at 16. He's got that plus wingspan and study frame that Weltman and Hammond look for and that was backed up by very good defensive metrics in his one year at Arizona. An AST% of 16.0 as a freshman off ball player is pretty impressive as well. The 3PT shooting was *good*, but wasn't spectacular in college at least compared to his peers, but the FT stroke was good enough that it gives me hope that he'll be able to be an above average 3PT shooter at the next level. Guys who put up good defensive metrics and show above average passing skill (a good sign of BBIQ/feel for the game) are safe bets to become top-flight defensive players to me. Green fits that bill.

As far as Stanley goes, I'm not a huge fan. Bad passer/playmaker, not a high-end shooter. He's toolsy for sure, but at least a guy like Okoro (another toolsy wing with a questionable jumper) showed some playmaking chops and some finishing chops. I just don't see much from Stanley that gives me a lot of hope.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#828 » by NotACat » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:02 pm

Knightro wrote:
Skin wrote:Good college player, but honestly, I see him as a JAG (just a guy). He's already 21 so that's not great, but what disappoints me most is that I think he's got limited athleticism. 6'10 wingspan for a SF is not really something to write home about. Oubre has a 7'3 wingspan WITH athleticism so that's a comparison. So limited athleticism, avg length.... kinda seems to me that's the reason why he's not a good defender or rebounder. Not a playmaker for others either. He was coached very well at Villanova, but Jay Wright tends to get the most out of his players... and I'm starting to wonder if they just look good in his system.

If I thought he could play some SG then I would like the pick more, but I don't see it. I know you're just trying to find a new name to talk about and that's cool. Sometimes there are guys right in front of your face that have been there the whole time and when you rewatch them you think you've noticed something new and that gets exciting. I've done that a few times just to circle back around... liking them and then not liking them again... few guys later in the draft that I did that too... f Elijah Hughes, Tyrell Terry, Jordan Nwora, etc.

Tell me what you think of Cassius Stanley. He's a 2nd round guy but I love his upside.


Yeah I don't think Bey has a huge star upside either, but I do disagree with some of the other stuff you said.

Bey's usage jumped significantly from a very low 14.4% as a freshman to 22.8% in Year 2, yet his turnovers remained flat and his scoring efficiency actually went up. That's a good sign of development with the ball in his hands for me. I think Bey's playmaking has come along quite nicely in two years at Villanova. His AST% jumped to 14.9% as a soph, up from 8.6% as a freshman.

2020 NBA Draft Wing Comparison

Age
Okoro 19 years, 7 months
Green 19 years, 8 months
Vassell 19 years, 11 months
Nesmith 20 years, 9 months
Bey 21 years, 3 months

Measurables
Green 6'6" height, 6'10" 1/4 wingspan, 210 lbs
Bey 6'8" height, 6'10" wingspan, 216 lbs
Vassell 6'7" height, 6'10" wingspan, 197 lbs
Nesmith 6'6" height, 6'10" wingspan, 213 lbs
Okoro 6'6" height, 6'9" wingspan, 225 lbs

Playmaking
Josh Green 16.0 AST% and 12.6 TO%, +3.4%
Saddiq Bey 14.9 AST% and 10.1 TO%, +4.8%
Isaac Okoro 13.1 AST% 15.2 TO%, -2.1%
Devin Vassell 11.2 AST%, 6.6 TO%, +4.6%
Aaron Nesmith 6.9 AST%, 9.3 TO%, -2.4%

Shooting
Nesmith .410 3PT% on 290 attempts, .825 FT% on 143 attempts, .685 TS%, .561 3PT rate .307 FT rate
Bey .418 3PT% on 306 attempts, .728 FT% on 136 attempts, .608 TS%, .477 3PT rate, .248 FT rate
Vassell .417 3PT% on 168 attempts, .720 FT% on 93 attempts, .585 TS% .361 3PT%, .221 FT rate
Green .361 3PT% on 83 attempts, .780 FT% on 109 attempts, .528 TS%. .288 3PT rate, .378 FT rate
Okoro .286 3PT% on 70 attempts, .672 FT% on 134 attempts, .587 TS% .288 3PT rate, .551 FT rate

Defense
Vassell 6.9% combined STL/BLK, 1.7 DWS, 4.2 DBPM
Green 4.4% combined STL/BLK, 1.9 DWS, 4.1 DBPM
Okoro 4.8% combined STL/BLK, 1.1 DWS, 2.5 DBPM
Bey 2.5% combined STL/BLK, 1.4 DWS, 1.9 DBPM
Nesmith 4.9% combined STL/BLK, 0.4 DWS, 0.4 DBPM

Vassell is the most impactful defender by a wide margin and also an excellent shooter, but his complete inability to draw free throws (just 93 FTA in two full seasons) give me pause if he will ever become anything more than a pure 3&D guy. He's probably the safest, highest floor guy of the bunch, but I don't see a huge upside. I'd definitely pick him at 16 if he made it there though.

Nesmith is the best pure shooter of the bunch, but he doesn't really do anything else well at all. He's the worst defender and worst playmaker of the group. Plus he played against the weakest competition overall. That shooting is a certainly weapon and every team can use an efficient high volume three point shooter, but he feels more like a specialist off the bench than a two-way starting caliber player. I think there will be better all-around players on the board at 16.

Okoro has nice tools, but I personally just don't know if I buy him as a top 10 pick. The production just wasn't there. I do like him as an active, physical defender and I really like him as a finisher around the rim, but wings who can't shoot are so dicey. You'd have to be really confident that element of his game would develop. I have a feeling if he fell to 16 that Weltman would trip over himself to get the card in. I like his feel for the game, but you're just not going to be an effective NBA wing without shooting ability and I just don't know if that's going to develop or not. He's just not a guy I would be super interested in picking.

Bey, to me, is a more well-rounded version of Nesmith. He's a plus shooter like Nesmith, but I think he's a much better passer, defender and finisher than Nesmith. Now that said, he's lagging behind Okoro, Vassell and Green as a defender (and behind Okoro and Green as a finisher), but I don't think he's going to be a total negative on that end either.

I really like Green as an option at 16. He's got that plus wingspan and study frame that Weltman and Hammond look for and that was backed up by very good defensive metrics in his one year at Arizona. An AST% of 16.0 as a freshman off ball player is pretty impressive as well. The 3PT shooting was *good*, but wasn't spectacular in college at least compared to his peers, but the FT stroke was good enough that it gives me hope that he'll be able to be an above average 3PT shooter at the next level. Guys who put up good defensive metrics and show above average passing skill (a good sign of BBIQ/feel for the game) are safe bets to become top-flight defensive players to me. Green fits that bill.

As far as Stanley goes, I'm not a huge fan. Bad passer/playmaker, not a high-end shooter. He's toolsy for sure, but at least a guy like Okoro (another toolsy wing with a questionable jumper) showed some playmaking chops and some finishing chops. I just don't see much from Stanley that gives me a lot of hope.

I'm also on the Josh Green bandwagon for the reasons you mentioned, especially his IQ. His defensive anticipation is well documented, but what I really like about him on offense is how good he is at moving off-ball and relocating after a pass. He's also a very quick decision maker. This is a condensed highlight reel that demonstrates what I'm referencing:





EDIT: This is a much longer video, but it includes his assists. He's such a quick decision maker and I think he's the most underrated prospect in this class:
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#829 » by The Effect » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:30 pm

NotACat wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Skin wrote:Good college player, but honestly, I see him as a JAG (just a guy). He's already 21 so that's not great, but what disappoints me most is that I think he's got limited athleticism. 6'10 wingspan for a SF is not really something to write home about. Oubre has a 7'3 wingspan WITH athleticism so that's a comparison. So limited athleticism, avg length.... kinda seems to me that's the reason why he's not a good defender or rebounder. Not a playmaker for others either. He was coached very well at Villanova, but Jay Wright tends to get the most out of his players... and I'm starting to wonder if they just look good in his system.

If I thought he could play some SG then I would like the pick more, but I don't see it. I know you're just trying to find a new name to talk about and that's cool. Sometimes there are guys right in front of your face that have been there the whole time and when you rewatch them you think you've noticed something new and that gets exciting. I've done that a few times just to circle back around... liking them and then not liking them again... few guys later in the draft that I did that too... f Elijah Hughes, Tyrell Terry, Jordan Nwora, etc.

Tell me what you think of Cassius Stanley. He's a 2nd round guy but I love his upside.


Yeah I don't think Bey has a huge star upside either, but I do disagree with some of the other stuff you said.

Bey's usage jumped significantly from a very low 14.4% as a freshman to 22.8% in Year 2, yet his turnovers remained flat and his scoring efficiency actually went up. That's a good sign of development with the ball in his hands for me. I think Bey's playmaking has come along quite nicely in two years at Villanova. His AST% jumped to 14.9% as a soph, up from 8.6% as a freshman.

2020 NBA Draft Wing Comparison

Age
Okoro 19 years, 7 months
Green 19 years, 8 months
Vassell 19 years, 11 months
Nesmith 20 years, 9 months
Bey 21 years, 3 months

Measurables
Green 6'6" height, 6'10" 1/4 wingspan, 210 lbs
Bey 6'8" height, 6'10" wingspan, 216 lbs
Vassell 6'7" height, 6'10" wingspan, 197 lbs
Nesmith 6'6" height, 6'10" wingspan, 213 lbs
Okoro 6'6" height, 6'9" wingspan, 225 lbs

Playmaking
Josh Green 16.0 AST% and 12.6 TO%, +3.4%
Saddiq Bey 14.9 AST% and 10.1 TO%, +4.8%
Isaac Okoro 13.1 AST% 15.2 TO%, -2.1%
Devin Vassell 11.2 AST%, 6.6 TO%, +4.6%
Aaron Nesmith 6.9 AST%, 9.3 TO%, -2.4%

Shooting
Nesmith .410 3PT% on 290 attempts, .825 FT% on 143 attempts, .685 TS%, .561 3PT rate .307 FT rate
Bey .418 3PT% on 306 attempts, .728 FT% on 136 attempts, .608 TS%, .477 3PT rate, .248 FT rate
Vassell .417 3PT% on 168 attempts, .720 FT% on 93 attempts, .585 TS% .361 3PT%, .221 FT rate
Green .361 3PT% on 83 attempts, .780 FT% on 109 attempts, .528 TS%. .288 3PT rate, .378 FT rate
Okoro .286 3PT% on 70 attempts, .672 FT% on 134 attempts, .587 TS% .288 3PT rate, .551 FT rate

Defense
Vassell 6.9% combined STL/BLK, 1.7 DWS, 4.2 DBPM
Green 4.4% combined STL/BLK, 1.9 DWS, 4.1 DBPM
Okoro 4.8% combined STL/BLK, 1.1 DWS, 2.5 DBPM
Bey 2.5% combined STL/BLK, 1.4 DWS, 1.9 DBPM
Nesmith 4.9% combined STL/BLK, 0.4 DWS, 0.4 DBPM

Vassell is the most impactful defender by a wide margin and also an excellent shooter, but his complete inability to draw free throws (just 93 FTA in two full seasons) give me pause if he will ever become anything more than a pure 3&D guy. He's probably the safest, highest floor guy of the bunch, but I don't see a huge upside. I'd definitely pick him at 16 if he made it there though.

Nesmith is the best pure shooter of the bunch, but he doesn't really do anything else well at all. He's the worst defender and worst playmaker of the group. Plus he played against the weakest competition overall. That shooting is a certainly weapon and every team can use an efficient high volume three point shooter, but he feels more like a specialist off the bench than a two-way starting caliber player. I think there will be better all-around players on the board at 16.

Okoro has nice tools, but I personally just don't know if I buy him as a top 10 pick. The production just wasn't there. I do like him as an active, physical defender and I really like him as a finisher around the rim, but wings who can't shoot are so dicey. You'd have to be really confident that element of his game would develop. I have a feeling if he fell to 16 that Weltman would trip over himself to get the card in. I like his feel for the game, but you're just not going to be an effective NBA wing without shooting ability and I just don't know if that's going to develop or not. He's just not a guy I would be super interested in picking.

Bey, to me, is a more well-rounded version of Nesmith. He's a plus shooter like Nesmith, but I think he's a much better passer, defender and finisher than Nesmith. Now that said, he's lagging behind Okoro, Vassell and Green as a defender (and behind Okoro and Green as a finisher), but I don't think he's going to be a total negative on that end either.

I really like Green as an option at 16. He's got that plus wingspan and study frame that Weltman and Hammond look for and that was backed up by very good defensive metrics in his one year at Arizona. An AST% of 16.0 as a freshman off ball player is pretty impressive as well. The 3PT shooting was *good*, but wasn't spectacular in college at least compared to his peers, but the FT stroke was good enough that it gives me hope that he'll be able to be an above average 3PT shooter at the next level. Guys who put up good defensive metrics and show above average passing skill (a good sign of BBIQ/feel for the game) are safe bets to become top-flight defensive players to me. Green fits that bill.

As far as Stanley goes, I'm not a huge fan. Bad passer/playmaker, not a high-end shooter. He's toolsy for sure, but at least a guy like Okoro (another toolsy wing with a questionable jumper) showed some playmaking chops and some finishing chops. I just don't see much from Stanley that gives me a lot of hope.

I'm also on the Josh Green bandwagon for the reasons you mentioned, especially his IQ. His defensive anticipation is well documented, but what I really like about him on offense is how good he is at moving off-ball and relocating after a pass. He's also a very quick decision maker. This is a condensed highlight reel that demonstrates what I'm referencing:





EDIT: This is a much longer video, but it includes his assists. He's such a quick decision maker and I think he's the most underrated prospect in this class:


Yeah, the more I research this year's draft, the more I'm convinced that green is WeHams guy. Fits their profile to a T. Really hoping he's the guy
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#830 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:11 pm

I'm not as sold on Green's shot mechanics as I am Bey, Nesmith or Vassel's, but it's certainly not a broken shot by any means. And 78% from the FT line as a freshman is a good sign as well.

Not to mention a lack of shooting has never really stopped Weltman or Hammond from picking someone before.

I'm going to be very curious to see if they prioritize a wing or a guard, especially with Augustin and MCW both unrestricted free agents to be.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#831 » by zaymon » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:19 pm

I also like Green but i like some other (even less heralded) prospects more than him. Defensively he fits big time on our team. He would immediately be our best wing defender, and surely most switchable one. Problem is his offense, he literally amplifies all of our weaknesses: not a good ball handler, moves the ball but cant make advanced reads, streaky shooter. In a vaccum he fits on our team, but in reality i think it can go really bad.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#832 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:43 pm

zaymon wrote:I also like Green but i like some other (even less heralded) prospects more than him. Defensively he fits big time on our team. He would immediately be our best wing defender, and surely most switchable one. Problem is his offense, he literally amplifies all of our weaknesses: not a good ball handler, moves the ball but cant make advanced reads, streaky shooter. In a vaccum he fits on our team, but in reality i think it can go really bad.


I feel like this applies to pretty much all of the wing players in the 10-20 range though.

None of the "3&D" wings - Vassell, Green, Bey or Nesmith - are particularly spectacular ball handlers or playmakers for others. If they were, they be top 5 picks.

The wings who do have some playmaking and passing chops like Okoro and Bolmaro can't shoot.

A perimeter player who can score, defend and create for others is the most valuable asset in all of basketball IMO. It's not too likely the Magic would find a prospect without significant flaws picking just outside the lottery.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#833 » by zaymon » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:02 pm

Knightro wrote:
zaymon wrote:I also like Green but i like some other (even less heralded) prospects more than him. Defensively he fits big time on our team. He would immediately be our best wing defender, and surely most switchable one. Problem is his offense, he literally amplifies all of our weaknesses: not a good ball handler, moves the ball but cant make advanced reads, streaky shooter. In a vaccum he fits on our team, but in reality i think it can go really bad.


I feel like this applies to pretty much all of the wing players in the 10-20 range though.

None of the "3&D" wings - Vassell, Green, Bey or Nesmith - are particularly spectacular ball handlers or playmakers for others. If they were, they be top 5 picks.

The wings who do have some playmaking and passing chops like Okoro and Bolmaro can't shoot.

A perimeter player who can score, defend and create for others is the most valuable asset in all of basketball IMO. It's not too likely the Magic would find a prospect without significant flaws picking just outside the lottery.


Well it comes to personal preference. I would go with Okoro or Bolmaro becouse i think its more likely they will improve their shooting than Green will improve his handling and passing. I would have more problem deciding between Green and Bane, but at the end of the day i like Bane more.
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2. Nick Nurse becomes Orlando Magic Head Coach. (15.04.2018)
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#834 » by Knightro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:06 pm

zaymon wrote:Well it comes to personal preference. I would go with Okoro or Bolmaro becouse i think its more likely they will improve their shooting than Green will improve his handling and passing. I would have more problem deciding between Green and Bane, but at the end of the day i like Bane more.


I do think you're sleeping on Green's passing a little bit. If he's a bad passer, then most of this wing class are horrific passers.

16.0 AST% with just a 12.6 TO% (+3.4%) as a true freshman wing is pretty good.

Here's how that compares to other wing prospects from the last few years. All percentages are from the player's freshman season.

2019 wings
RJ Barrett - 23.5 AST%, 13.2 TO%
DeAndre Hunter - 11.8 AST%, 10.7 TO%
Jarrett Culver - 13.7 AST%, 13.3 TO%
Cam Reddish - 10.7 AST%, 16.5 TO%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 10.6 AST%, 14.5 TO%

2018 wings
Kevin Knox - 8.7 AST%, 14.1 TO%
Mikal Bridges - 7.5 AST%, 10.7 TO%
Miles Bridges - 14.5 AST%, 13.9 TO%

2017 wings
Jayson Tatum - 12.4 AST%, 15.0 TO%
Josh Jackson - 18.2 AST%, 15.9 TO%

2016 wins
Ben Simmons - 27.4 AST%, 17.4 TO%
Brandon Ingram - 11.4 AST%, 11.3 TO%
Jaylen Brown - 15.3 AST% 17.9 TO%

Now assist percentage isn't an indicator of passing ability necessarily, but Green at the very least has an understanding of and a willingness to make simple reads and keep the ball moving. There's value in that on the wing. Especially at such a young age where most wings do not possess that skill at all and are simply looking to put the ball in the basket.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#835 » by zaymon » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:46 pm

Knightro wrote:
zaymon wrote:Well it comes to personal preference. I would go with Okoro or Bolmaro becouse i think its more likely they will improve their shooting than Green will improve his handling and passing. I would have more problem deciding between Green and Bane, but at the end of the day i like Bane more.


I do think you're sleeping on Green's passing a little bit. If he's a bad passer, then most of this wing class are horrific passers.

16.0 AST% with just a 12.6 TO% (+3.4%) as a true freshman wing is pretty good.

Here's how that compares to other wing prospects from the last few years. All percentages are from the player's freshman season.

2019 wings
RJ Barrett - 23.5 AST%, 13.2 TO%
DeAndre Hunter - 11.8 AST%, 10.7 TO%
Jarrett Culver - 13.7 AST%, 13.3 TO%
Cam Reddish - 10.7 AST%, 16.5 TO%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 10.6 AST%, 14.5 TO%

2018 wings
Kevin Knox - 8.7 AST%, 14.1 TO%
Mikal Bridges - 7.5 AST%, 10.7 TO%
Miles Bridges - 14.5 AST%, 13.9 TO%

2017 wings
Jayson Tatum - 12.4 AST%, 15.0 TO%
Josh Jackson - 18.2 AST%, 15.9 TO%

2016 wins
Ben Simmons - 27.4 AST%, 17.4 TO%
Brandon Ingram - 11.4 AST%, 11.3 TO%
Jaylen Brown - 15.3 AST% 17.9 TO%

Now assist percentage isn't an indicator of passing ability necessarily, but Green at the very least has an understanding of and a willingness to make simple reads and keep the ball moving. There's value in that on the wing. Especially at such a young age where most wings do not possess that skill at all and are simply looking to put the ball in the basket.

He is not a bad passer by any means, and i would consider him at our range. he is not a good passer on the move. So he projects as a strictly catch and shoot, move the ball player. He is not a good finisher and not off the screen shooter. With his size and athletecism its valueable but the upside is low imo
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#836 » by jezzerinho » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:43 pm

What concerns me more about Green is a lack of shooting touch, esp at the rim.
ORL desperately needs:
A shot creator
An alpha leader
A scorer

The guys who tick the boxes for me, that could be in our range are Anthony and Maxey. There are other players I like but these two guys give us an extra dimension, I believe.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#837 » by Xatticus » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:32 pm

Knightro wrote:Vassell is the most impactful defender by a wide margin and also an excellent shooter, but his complete inability to draw free throws (just 93 FTA in two full seasons) give me pause if he will ever become anything more than a pure 3&D guy. He's probably the safest, highest floor guy of the bunch, but I don't see a huge upside. I'd definitely pick him at 16 if he made it there though.

Nesmith is the best pure shooter of the bunch, but he doesn't really do anything else well at all. He's the worst defender and worst playmaker of the group. Plus he played against the weakest competition overall. That shooting is a certainly weapon and every team can use an efficient high volume three point shooter, but he feels more like a specialist off the bench than a two-way starting caliber player. I think there will be better all-around players on the board at 16.

Okoro has nice tools, but I personally just don't know if I buy him as a top 10 pick. The production just wasn't there. I do like him as an active, physical defender and I really like him as a finisher around the rim, but wings who can't shoot are so dicey. You'd have to be really confident that element of his game would develop. I have a feeling if he fell to 16 that Weltman would trip over himself to get the card in. I like his feel for the game, but you're just not going to be an effective NBA wing without shooting ability and I just don't know if that's going to develop or not. He's just not a guy I would be super interested in picking.

Bey, to me, is a more well-rounded version of Nesmith. He's a plus shooter like Nesmith, but I think he's a much better passer, defender and finisher than Nesmith. Now that said, he's lagging behind Okoro, Vassell and Green as a defender (and behind Okoro and Green as a finisher), but I don't think he's going to be a total negative on that end either.

I really like Green as an option at 16. He's got that plus wingspan and study frame that Weltman and Hammond look for and that was backed up by very good defensive metrics in his one year at Arizona. An AST% of 16.0 as a freshman off ball player is pretty impressive as well. The 3PT shooting was *good*, but wasn't spectacular in college at least compared to his peers, but the FT stroke was good enough that it gives me hope that he'll be able to be an above average 3PT shooter at the next level. Guys who put up good defensive metrics and show above average passing skill (a good sign of BBIQ/feel for the game) are safe bets to become top-flight defensive players to me. Green fits that bill.

As far as Stanley goes, I'm not a huge fan. Bad passer/playmaker, not a high-end shooter. He's toolsy for sure, but at least a guy like Okoro (another toolsy wing with a questionable jumper) showed some playmaking chops and some finishing chops. I just don't see much from Stanley that gives me a lot of hope.


I haven't really looked at Okoro or Stanley yet. Vassell would be my choice.

I like Green as well, though he is quite limited at the offensive end. The shot looks fine and he is great in transition, but he is pretty bad at everything once he starts to dribble. I think he'd fit alongside Fultz really well though. Fultz is amazing in transition and nobody gets out in front of Green. He has quick feet. He can really run. He has good size, but he needs to get stronger. I think you can dream on his potential a bit because he has the physical tools to grow into something more, but he is very much just a 3nD guy right now and it will take a lot of development to become anything more.

I don't really like Bey. I just don't believe in that athleticism. He can get up when he loads up, but otherwise he is just an effort guy. Nothing looks smooth or easy. His development from freshman to sophomore was impressive and his numbers look pretty good overall, but the film doesn't really back it up. He is probably a plus shooter, but nothing screams elite beyond this season's 3P%. He can pass the ball around a bit, but it is rather painful watching him try to break someone down or force his way to the basket with his dribble. He is old for a sophomore. That doesn't necessarily limit his upside, but it can explain his success at the collegiate level. I'd liken him to Denzel Valentine. They aren't really similar players, but they have the same shortcoming. It's difficult to see anything he does translating all that well due to the lack of athleticism. On top of all of that, I just can't imagine our front office would take him. He just doesn't fit their profile.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#838 » by PrimeThyme » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:12 pm

Honestly, if its between trading AG plus assets for a higher pick in this draft versus trading AG plus assets for a surefire 3&D wing/SG on the trade market I'm choosing the latter. I'm just not sold enough on any of the potential players we could move up for in this draft.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#839 » by Skybox » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:24 pm

One thing to add to the Bey case is he’s a Nova guy. There’s a certain amount of reliability from those players. Well-coached, able to play roles. Maybe not star factory but I’d be very happy to have a solid bench mob of recent Nova guys. I guess it’s an unfair bias, but that’s part of what concerns me about Edwards going so high.
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Re: Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#840 » by Skin » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:25 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:Honestly, if its between trading AG plus assets for a higher pick in this draft versus trading AG plus assets for a surefire 3&D wing/SG on the trade market I'm choosing the latter. I'm just not sold enough on any of the potential players we could move up for in this draft.

I would only trade Gordon for Edwards, but other than that... yeah, there is no one worth moving up for. I'd pursue the latter as well. Oubre at the top of my mind.
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