Skin wrote:Good college player, but honestly, I see him as a JAG (just a guy). He's already 21 so that's not great, but what disappoints me most is that I think he's got limited athleticism. 6'10 wingspan for a SF is not really something to write home about. Oubre has a 7'3 wingspan WITH athleticism so that's a comparison. So limited athleticism, avg length.... kinda seems to me that's the reason why he's not a good defender or rebounder. Not a playmaker for others either. He was coached very well at Villanova, but Jay Wright tends to get the most out of his players... and I'm starting to wonder if they just look good in his system.
If I thought he could play some SG then I would like the pick more, but I don't see it. I know you're just trying to find a new name to talk about and that's cool. Sometimes there are guys right in front of your face that have been there the whole time and when you rewatch them you think you've noticed something new and that gets exciting. I've done that a few times just to circle back around... liking them and then not liking them again... few guys later in the draft that I did that too... f Elijah Hughes, Tyrell Terry, Jordan Nwora, etc.
Tell me what you think of Cassius Stanley. He's a 2nd round guy but I love his upside.
Yeah I don't think Bey has a huge star upside either, but I do disagree with some of the other stuff you said.
Bey's usage jumped significantly from a very low 14.4% as a freshman to 22.8% in Year 2, yet his turnovers remained flat and his scoring efficiency actually went up. That's a good sign of development with the ball in his hands for me. I think Bey's playmaking has come along quite nicely in two years at Villanova. His AST% jumped to 14.9% as a soph, up from 8.6% as a freshman.
2020 NBA Draft Wing ComparisonAge
Okoro 19 years, 7 months
Green 19 years, 8 months
Vassell 19 years, 11 months
Nesmith 20 years, 9 months
Bey 21 years, 3 monthsMeasurables
Green 6'6" height, 6'10" 1/4 wingspan, 210 lbs
Bey 6'8" height, 6'10" wingspan, 216 lbs
Vassell 6'7" height, 6'10" wingspan, 197 lbs
Nesmith 6'6" height, 6'10" wingspan, 213 lbs
Okoro 6'6" height, 6'9" wingspan, 225 lbsPlaymaking
Josh Green 16.0 AST% and 12.6 TO%, +3.4%
Saddiq Bey 14.9 AST% and 10.1 TO%, +4.8%
Isaac Okoro 13.1 AST% 15.2 TO%, -2.1%
Devin Vassell 11.2 AST%, 6.6 TO%, +4.6%
Aaron Nesmith 6.9 AST%, 9.3 TO%, -2.4%Shooting
Nesmith .410 3PT% on 290 attempts, .825 FT% on 143 attempts, .685 TS%, .561 3PT rate .307 FT rate
Bey .418 3PT% on 306 attempts, .728 FT% on 136 attempts, .608 TS%, .477 3PT rate, .248 FT rate
Vassell .417 3PT% on 168 attempts, .720 FT% on 93 attempts, .585 TS% .361 3PT%, .221 FT rate
Green .361 3PT% on 83 attempts, .780 FT% on 109 attempts, .528 TS%. .288 3PT rate, .378 FT rate
Okoro .286 3PT% on 70 attempts, .672 FT% on 134 attempts, .587 TS% .288 3PT rate, .551 FT rateDefense
Vassell 6.9% combined STL/BLK, 1.7 DWS, 4.2 DBPM
Green 4.4% combined STL/BLK, 1.9 DWS, 4.1 DBPM
Okoro 4.8% combined STL/BLK, 1.1 DWS, 2.5 DBPM
Bey 2.5% combined STL/BLK, 1.4 DWS, 1.9 DBPM
Nesmith 4.9% combined STL/BLK, 0.4 DWS, 0.4 DBPM
Vassell is the most impactful defender by a wide margin and also an excellent shooter, but his complete inability to draw free throws (just 93 FTA in two full seasons) give me pause if he will ever become anything more than a pure 3&D guy. He's probably the safest, highest floor guy of the bunch, but I don't see a huge upside. I'd definitely pick him at 16 if he made it there though.
Nesmith is the best pure shooter of the bunch, but he doesn't really do anything else well at all. He's the worst defender and worst playmaker of the group. Plus he played against the weakest competition overall. That shooting is a certainly weapon and every team can use an efficient high volume three point shooter, but he feels more like a specialist off the bench than a two-way starting caliber player. I think there will be better all-around players on the board at 16.
Okoro has nice tools, but I personally just don't know if I buy him as a top 10 pick. The production just wasn't there. I do like him as an active, physical defender and I really like him as a finisher around the rim, but wings who can't shoot are so dicey. You'd have to be really confident that element of his game would develop. I have a feeling if he fell to 16 that Weltman would trip over himself to get the card in. I like his feel for the game, but you're just not going to be an effective NBA wing without shooting ability and I just don't know if that's going to develop or not. He's just not a guy I would be super interested in picking.
Bey, to me, is a more well-rounded version of Nesmith. He's a plus shooter like Nesmith, but I think he's a much better passer, defender and finisher than Nesmith. Now that said, he's lagging behind Okoro, Vassell and Green as a defender (and behind Okoro and Green as a finisher), but I don't think he's going to be a total negative on that end either.
I really like Green as an option at 16. He's got that plus wingspan and study frame that Weltman and Hammond look for and that was backed up by very good defensive metrics in his one year at Arizona. An AST% of 16.0 as a freshman off ball player is pretty impressive as well. The 3PT shooting was *good*, but wasn't spectacular in college at least compared to his peers, but the FT stroke was good enough that it gives me hope that he'll be able to be an above average 3PT shooter at the next level. Guys who put up good defensive metrics and show above average passing skill (a good sign of BBIQ/feel for the game) are safe bets to become top-flight defensive players to me. Green fits that bill.
As far as Stanley goes, I'm not a huge fan. Bad passer/playmaker, not a high-end shooter. He's toolsy for sure, but at least a guy like Okoro (another toolsy wing with a questionable jumper) showed some playmaking chops and some finishing chops. I just don't see much from Stanley that gives me a lot of hope.