RealGM

Just some interesting stats. Take with a grain of salt.

Many small sample sizes at the top and bottom end for games missed/played (Fultz, Fournier, Law etc).

Some other factors skew it also eg Bamba early on was sitting out back to backs and the Magic are 1-8 in back to backs, I don't think that is all just Bamba being out etc, and non rotation players likely didn't need to be listed, but I included everyone anyway.

Anyway, keep scrolling if this adds no value to your life

Player (Missed Games) | Team Winning Percentage when Playing | Winning Percentage when missing games | +/- Percentage
Markelle Fultz (1) | .423 | .000 | +.423
DJ Augustin (14) | .487 | .214 | +.273
Mo Bamba (4) | .429 | .250 | +.179
BJ Johnson (45) | .500 | .400 | +.100
Aaron Gordon (6) | .426 | .333 | +.092
Wesley Iwundu (14) | .410 | .429 | -.018
Jonathan Isaac (21) | .406 | .429 | -.022
Al Farouq-Aminu (35) | .389 | .429 | -.040
Josh Magette (45) | .375 | .422 | -.047
Nikola Vucevic (11) | .405 | .455 | -.050
Terrence Ross (2) | .412 | .500 | -.088
Michael Carter-Williams (23) | .367 | .478 | -.112
Khem Birch (16) | .378 | .500 | -.122
Gary Clark (43) | .300 | .442 | -.142
Melvin Frazier Jr (39) | .286 | .462 | -.176
Amile Jefferson (35) | .278 | .486 | -.208
Vic Law (50) | .000 | .440 | -.440
Evan Fournier (1) | .404 | 1.000 | -.596

Conclusion: We miss DJ?
He's hoping to play in the first game post All-Star break.

Can you clear up the +/- percentage for me? Is it the same percentages used for a team? As in, the Magic are currently under .500. Is it the same thing?

The Real Dalic wrote:Can you clear up the +/- percentage for me? Is it the same percentages used for a team? As in, the Magic are currently under .500. Is it the same thing?

So as an example, the Magic when DJ has played this season have gone 19-20 (.487)

When DJ has been out, the Magic are 3-11 (.214)

So the difference in winning percentage when DJ plays is +.273

I ran the same numbers for each player, nothing to do with +\- numbers (points scored/allowed) its just team winning percentage when players have been in uniform vs injured/sitting etc.

DJ is our GOAT

but this is not suprising, always being one of best shooters and one of best playmakers, on team that does not have good alternatives for him.

Oh, we're liking DJ again? Cool.

DJ is terrible. We’d be losing these games anyway. There’s a reason he’s bounced around the league.

I mean yeah, you guard DJ as a shooter differently than you guard MCW as a non-shooter, but DJ has been awful this season. I'm willing to believe he has a non-zero value as being a shooter on our team devoid of shooters, but I feel like there has to be a lot of coincidence in that record. Like sitting out alongside Isaac (if the numbers account for that, my apologies).

FFBlitzace wrote:I mean yeah, you guard DJ as a shooter differently than you guard MCW as a non-shooter, but DJ has been awful this season. I'm willing to believe he has a non-zero value as being a shooter on our team devoid of shooters, but I feel like there has to be a lot of coincidence in that record. Like sitting out alongside Isaac (if the numbers account for that, my apologies).

Nah they don't.

It could be an accumulation thing... "One injury too many" etc... We seemed to handle Vuc going down okay, Aminu no problems, and Isaac early on we were okay, but adding DJ too it in a sense I think just thinned out the bench way too much...

Clark and Ennis are small upgrades but if we were healthy realistically we are giving court time to what... 5? (Clark, Ennis, MCW, Birch, Iwundu) borderline rotation guys who would have been all fighting for one spot in a 10man rotation if the team was healthy (DJ, Ross, Aminu and Bamba).

And Clifford prefers a 9man rotation anyway.

I know Clifford prefers to play 9, but I assume after the ASB the rotation will still be 10 because I just don't see Clifford not playing MCW when Augustin returns.

Fultz-Fournier-Iwundu-Gordon-Vucevic

Augustin-Ross-MCW-Ennis-Bamba

Is my guess.

I suppose Ennis could become the starting 3 and Iwundu could get squeezed completely out if Clifford really wants to go with 9.

The GOAT:
Player (Missed Games) | Team Winning Percentage when Playing | Winning Percentage when missing games | +/- Percentage
James Ennis (53) | 1.000 | .415 | +.585

TheGlyde wrote:

FFBlitzace wrote:I mean yeah, you guard DJ as a shooter differently than you guard MCW as a non-shooter, but DJ has been awful this season. I'm willing to believe he has a non-zero value as being a shooter on our team devoid of shooters, but I feel like there has to be a lot of coincidence in that record. Like sitting out alongside Isaac (if the numbers account for that, my apologies).

Nah they don't.

It could be an accumulation thing... "One injury too many" etc... We seemed to handle Vuc going down okay, Aminu no problems, and Isaac early on we were okay, but adding DJ too it in a sense I think just thinned out the bench way too much...

Clark and Ennis are small upgrades but if we were healthy realistically we are giving court time to what... 5? (Clark, Ennis, MCW, Birch, Iwundu) borderline rotation guys who would have been all fighting for one spot in a 10man rotation if the team was healthy (DJ, Ross, Aminu and Bamba).

And Clifford prefers a 9man rotation anyway.

It's really not that difficult to deconstruct this. Augustin missed our toughest stretch of the year.

5 home/9 road including these teams:

LAL
LACx2
OKC
BOSx2
MIAx2
MIL

As for Clifford's comments about Augustin... it's problematic to me that Clifford describes what Augustin does as 'playmaking'.

I don't miss DJ... at all.

So in an 11 game sample the Magic are slightly better without Vucevic and his 20+million per year.... I wonder what their schedule was those 11 games and if there's any significance to it...

and now I'm at a loss as I came onto this forum to discuss how Vucevic always flys under the radar as an all-star level player