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Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:50 pm
by SOUL
Image

(credit to a reddit/OrlandoMagic post)

Fournier has had more clutch attempts than our other three main pieces combined and hasn't pulled through. His free throws are also bad. I'm sure some of those threes were desperation threes, but 1-14 is not pretty.

There's several factors at play here, IMO.

1. Fournier historically has been a good closer, at least for us. There's a comfort level with him taking the shots. Even games where he did relatively little, he usually would hit shots at the end in the past few years.

2. However, while being a bit craftier now (and shooting better from three), he has seemed to lose a step athletically and looks painfully clumsy at times trying to go where he wants to go (which is why setting good picks are important for our guards).

3. This is half on Fournier and half on Clifford. Fournier for not producing and being anti-clutch this year, and Clifford/front office for a bad offensive team in general. We have one of the most predictable offenses out there.. even if the personnel for it sucks. Literally never running plays for Isaac is one of the dumbest things I've heard in the NBA this year. And there have been games where other people were hot, and Fournier still gets the ball at the end. So Clifford has not done a good job this year in my opinion even though I know there is a cap to how good our offense can be. It's a bit disappointing that some people think that not throwing new wrinkles in the offense and doing the same option over and over again is the "best we can do" when the stats right here show otherwise.

So, is this anything?

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:07 pm
by Knightro
It’s something, but not sure it’s anything.

Seriously though, I and about 90% of the board certainly wouldn’t mind Clifford giving Fultz more opportunities in these types of moments.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:08 pm
by SOUL
Knightro wrote:It’s something, but not sure it’s anything.

Seriously though, I and about 90% of the board certainly wouldn’t mind Clifford giving Fultz more opportunities in these types of moments.


It certainly can't hurt.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:01 am
by deggett
Those numbers don't tell all the truth.

1. Most Evans misses are from 3pt 1-14 (1-13 when we where down or tied).
2. If you lover it to 1 min its 0-8, 30 sec 0-6, 10 sec 0-4 all while being down, looks like desperation shots.
3. If you lover it to 3pt diff its 0-2 in last min, 0-1 in 30 sec, 0-1 in 10 sec.
So he took 6 3pt shots in last 60 sec, 5 of them were in last 30sec, 3 of them were in last 10sec when we were down 4-5pt. While being only reliable shooter.

But I agree, lets give those shots to Fultz. Even more, I want Fultz shoot when he is open on 3pt lane. He should not hide his shot.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:07 am
by MagicStarwipe
If you found his turnover numbers in these situations I would have given you a bell :wink:

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:15 am
by shadrock
I would say this is everything right now. If there was one issue with the attitude of this team and coaching staff, its the insistence on forcing everything through Fournier late game instead of Fultz. If for the rest of the season we stopped that and instead gave those shots to Fultz, we win far more games.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:17 am
by shadrock
Not to mention, this doesnt even consider turnovers. I would guess Vuc and Fournier would have 3 times more turnovers in the same minutes than anyone else.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:21 am
by basketballRob
Fournier also had at least two terrible turnovers down the stretch against NY. I think he's trying to do too much, instead of just being a spot up shooter.

Fultz could be hurting him by not stretching the floor more. It does make since for Fultz to have the ball in his hands final two minutes because his defender will have to try and stop him from getting to the basket and have the shooters spread the floor.

I guess he's playing alright other times with Fultz.



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Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:31 am
by deggett
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Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:01 am
by PrimeThyme
SOUL wrote: Fournier historically has been a good closer, at least for us.

There may be numbers that suggest otherwise and I’d be interested to see them, but it’s never felt like it. I mean yes he has hit some big shots in the past including multiple game winners, but how many games has buddy ball with Fournier as the primary ball handler and decision maker squandered for us in the past? It feels like a lot.

Imo, fg% isn’t always the best way to determine if a player is a good closer or not. It’s like for years how people would argue Lebron wasn’t a good closer for the same reason, but he was always an excellent late game decision maker and many times just made the right pass or play and wound up winning the game.

I’ve never trusted Fournier as a late game decision maker. Ever. It’s seems to me like the number of turnovers or times he hasn’t made the right play down the stretch would greatly outweigh the number of times he’s hit a big shot for us.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:02 am
by SOUL
PrimeThyme wrote:
SOUL wrote: Fournier historically has been a good closer, at least for us.

There may be numbers that suggest otherwise and I’d be interested to see them, but it’s never felt like it. I mean yes he has hit some big shots in the past including multiple game winners, but how many games has buddy ball with Fournier as the primary ball handler and decision maker squandered for us in the past? It feels like a lot.

Imo, fg% isn’t always the best way to determine if a player is a good closer or not. It’s like for years how people would argue Lebron wasn’t a good closer for the same reason, but he was always an excellent late game decision maker and many times just made the right pass or play and wound up winning the game.

I’ve never trusted Fournier as a late game decision maker. Ever. It’s seems to me like the number of turnovers or times he hasn’t made the right play down the stretch would greatly outweigh the number of times he’s hit a big shot for us.


I've always said I trusted him WITH the last shot but not leading up to it a lot of the times.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:21 am
by zaymon
So for all the ball handling he did, he commited only 3 turnovers, one of which was a foul on him in NY ? Doesnt seem like much. I agree that closing with Fultz and "no shot" Gordon really hurt him this year. Teams are glued to him last possesions and players like AG are usually lightly guarded.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:23 pm
by Knightro
Gotta be careful with pure box score analysis like this.

If Fournier (or anyone for that matter) runs the called play and misses an easy pass that would have created a wide open shot for a teammate because of poor vision, that’s bad process that’s not going to show up negatively in the box score.

If the ball handler dribbles his way into trouble and his only recourse is to kick out to someone covered late in the shot clock and that player misses, the box score will say it’s the shooter’s fault, but if you watch the possession it’s the original ball handler’s fault, ya know?

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:34 pm
by pepe1991
Teams know who will get ball.
And there is no atlernative.

So it is something- it says Magic need star ballhandler. But who didn't know that ?

Also this data needs contest. Some shots could be product of poor offensive sets that ended up with him shooting hot potato with no time on shot clock. ( happends a lot for us).

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:30 pm
by fendilim
I still don't believe you can give Gordon the last shot. The guy has no create ability.

However for Fultz, I'm torn. There's a reason why he doesn't get enough shots in the clutch.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:00 pm
by Skin
fendilim wrote:I still don't believe you can give Gordon the last shot. The guy has no create ability.

However for Fultz, I'm torn. There's a reason why he doesn't get enough shots in the clutch.

Fultz doesn't get a chance because he's not a part of Buddy Ball.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:41 pm
by zaymon
Skin wrote:
fendilim wrote:I still don't believe you can give Gordon the last shot. The guy has no create ability.

However for Fultz, I'm torn. There's a reason why he doesn't get enough shots in the clutch.

Fultz doesn't get a chance because he's not a part of Buddy Ball.

You have to earn your place in buddy ball.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:08 pm
by Knightro
Generally speaking, the go-to play call late in close games is...

1. Fultz walks the ball up the floor eating 10-12 seconds off the shot clock
2. Fournier comes off a screen on the wing, but ultimately walks up close enough to Fultz for a hand off with about 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock
3. Fultz jogs to the opposite corner
4. Vucevic runs up and initiates a 2/5 pick and roll with Fournier with about 7 on the shot clock
5. Fournier ignores Gordon, Fultz and Ross regardless of what their defenders do
6. Depending on how the defense attacks the PNR, Fournier does one of 3 things - A. shoots a tough floater/runner over a contest. B. tries to dump the ball off to Vucevic in traffic who awkwardly takes a rushed shot or C. turns it over

If the other team is really bad defensively, Evan may get all the way to the rim for a layup or Vucevic may get a clean pass and finish at the rim or make a short hook shot or they may botch the coverage and one of the two of them gets a wide open jumper.

Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:27 pm
by basketballRob
Knightro wrote:Generally speaking, the go-to play call late in close games is...

1. Fultz walks the ball up the floor eating 10-12 seconds off the shot clock
2. Fournier comes off a screen on the wing, but ultimately walks up close enough to Fultz for a hand off with about 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock
3. Fultz jogs to the opposite corner
4. Vucevic runs up and initiates a 2/5 pick and roll with Fournier with about 7 on the shot clock
5. Fournier ignores Gordon, Fultz and Ross regardless of what their defenders do
6. Depending on how the defense attacks the PNR, Fournier does one of 3 things - A. shoots a tough floater/runner over a contest. B. tries to dump the ball off to Vucevic in traffic who awkwardly takes a rushed shot or C. turns it over

If the other team is really bad defensively, Evan may get all the way to the rim for a layup or Vucevic may get a clean pass and finish at the rim or make a short hook shot or they may botch the coverage and one of the two of them gets a wide open jumper.
Lol. It's funny how Fournier refuses to pass it to anyone other than Vuc. He could be triple teamed and he'll try to force if to him.

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Re: Is this anything? (Offense in the last 2 minutes, within 5 points)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:37 pm
by OrlMagic05
Knightro wrote:Generally speaking, the go-to play call late in close games is...

1. Fultz walks the ball up the floor eating 10-12 seconds off the shot clock
2. Fournier comes off a screen on the wing, but ultimately walks up close enough to Fultz for a hand off with about 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock
3. Fultz jogs to the opposite corner
4. Vucevic runs up and initiates a 2/5 pick and roll with Fournier with about 7 on the shot clock
5. Fournier ignores Gordon, Fultz and Ross regardless of what their defenders do
6. Depending on how the defense attacks the PNR, Fournier does one of 3 things - A. shoots a tough floater/runner over a contest. B. tries to dump the ball off to Vucevic in traffic who awkwardly takes a rushed shot or C. turns it over

If the other team is really bad defensively, Evan may get all the way to the rim for a layup or Vucevic may get a clean pass and finish at the rim or make a short hook shot or they may botch the coverage and one of the two of them gets a wide open jumper.


This is 1/3 of our play book lol I was so shocked when Fournier passed it to Fultz during one of these possessions last game.