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Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#81 » by The Effect » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:48 am

PrimeThyme wrote:I'd have no issue with that kind of contract for Isaac if it wasn't for the injury history. He was showing this year that he will at some point be a DPOY candidate and a perennial all-defensive type player. I just don't think he or Fultz has shown enough health-wise to get those kinds of contracts yet.


Evne healthy i dont know if isaac is worth a max deal with how limited he is on offense. He has no offensive game to speak of outside of cutting to the basket or offensive rebounds\putbacks. I mean for his career he has the same amount of games with single digit points as double digit, thats not good obviously, but its more than just that. he doesnt seem comfortable on offense doing anything besides cutting, or taking the open 3. Like when gordon was drafted, we all knew he was a huge offensive question mark, but hes a susperstar on offense compared to JI. I get hes been hurt (another big problem), but you just dont see much development on offense

Sure great defenders are nice to have, but in a league thats more and more geared towards offense, you need guys who can put the ball in the basket
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#82 » by Bensational » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:00 am

The Effect wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'd have no issue with that kind of contract for Isaac if it wasn't for the injury history. He was showing this year that he will at some point be a DPOY candidate and a perennial all-defensive type player. I just don't think he or Fultz has shown enough health-wise to get those kinds of contracts yet.


Evne healthy i dont know if isaac is worth a max deal with how limited he is on offense. He has no offensive game to speak of outside of cutting to the basket or offensive rebounds\putbacks. I mean for his career he has the same amount of games with single digit points as double digit, thats not good obviously, but its more than just that. he doesnt seem comfortable on offense doing anything besides cutting, or taking the open 3. Like when gordon was drafted, we all knew he was a huge offensive question mark, but hes a susperstar on offense compared to JI. I get hes been hurt (another big problem), but you just dont see much development on offense

Sure great defenders are nice to have, but in a league thats more and more geared towards offense, you need guys who can put the ball in the basket


One of his problems is that there are too many mouths to feed ahead of him for him to get the chance to try stuff in games. Vuc, Gordon, Fournier, Fultz, Ross, DJ - these guys are all ahead or him. Yeah, he needs to earn his shots by being excellent in the touches he is given, but I'm not going to pretend many of those guys are known for putting up brilliant shots all the time.

Ideally, he'll shine through the other players the way Siakam eventually did amongst the other Raps players. But Nurse is a fantastic offensive coach who gets the best out of his guys, and Clifford is far from that. A larger contract might give Isaac the confidence and backing to command more chances on offense.

He has been too timid on offense for me to think he will become a stud offensive option. But I won't rule it out, either. It just takes the right conditions sometimes.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#83 » by pepe1991 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 am

Isaac playing style is far more similar to Ibaka than to Siakam.
He is simplistic and robotic without much fludity when he has no easy options ( catch&shoot and putbacks ).
I would not pay 4th year Ibaka, with hindsight, max contract. Actually if you think about it, overpaying Ibaka actually broke OKC's hope for a championship.
So there is no reason to do the same for far more fragile Isaac even if you belive in his upside.

Siakam went in 8 years from never playing basketball to being 2# option on championship team.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#84 » by Xatticus » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:57 am

Bensational wrote:
The Effect wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:I'd have no issue with that kind of contract for Isaac if it wasn't for the injury history. He was showing this year that he will at some point be a DPOY candidate and a perennial all-defensive type player. I just don't think he or Fultz has shown enough health-wise to get those kinds of contracts yet.


Evne healthy i dont know if isaac is worth a max deal with how limited he is on offense. He has no offensive game to speak of outside of cutting to the basket or offensive rebounds\putbacks. I mean for his career he has the same amount of games with single digit points as double digit, thats not good obviously, but its more than just that. he doesnt seem comfortable on offense doing anything besides cutting, or taking the open 3. Like when gordon was drafted, we all knew he was a huge offensive question mark, but hes a susperstar on offense compared to JI. I get hes been hurt (another big problem), but you just dont see much development on offense

Sure great defenders are nice to have, but in a league thats more and more geared towards offense, you need guys who can put the ball in the basket


One of his problems is that there are too many mouths to feed ahead of him for him to get the chance to try stuff in games. Vuc, Gordon, Fournier, Fultz, Ross, DJ - these guys are all ahead or him. Yeah, he needs to earn his shots by being excellent in the touches he is given, but I'm not going to pretend many of those guys are known for putting up brilliant shots all the time.

Ideally, he'll shine through the other players the way Siakam eventually did amongst the other Raps players. But Nurse is a fantastic offensive coach who gets the best out of his guys, and Clifford is far from that. A larger contract might give Isaac the confidence and backing to command more chances on offense.

He has been too timid on offense for me to think he will become a stud offensive option. But I won't rule it out, either. It just takes the right conditions sometimes.


None of the mouths ahead of him have proven themselves worthy of the roles they have been given and none should be obstructing the development of our youth. Our "good" offensive players aren't really good offensive players. That's why our offense sucks and that's why our offense has sucked for the better part of the last decade.

Isaac clearly has offensive upside, but he also has a long way to go. We have seen that he has nice touch on layups with both hands. He can lay it up softly even while running full speed in transition. He can spin going to the basket into a layup or away from the basket into a fadeaway. That fadeaway will be damn-near impossible to block. He has a decent eurostep, though that's the play he got hurt on. You have to have strong legs to complete that move and I will cringe every time he attempts it for quite some time. He has scoop shots and up-and-under, reverse layups that he uses when he goes baseline. He uses a jab step and step backs. He has a bit of a floater game as well. There is a lot there to build from.

He is a solid ball handler, though his dribble is high and it gets loose from time to time. He is also quick to pick it up when he gets into traffic. That's fine. You can be a two-dribble guy and still be a creator, but his facilitation has a long way to go. He rushes things in traffic and he is still pretty easy to move or disrupt due to his lack of strength, though he has obviously made progress in that regard. He will use a shot fake on the perimeter and then rip through to head to the basket, but he quickly runs out of ideas if a second-level defender is in the way. He just looks really inexperienced offensively.

One of my concerns with him is that he has been rather selfish as a finisher. I'm fairly certain that this is because nothing is drawn up for him and his offensive opportunities are limited. He gets the occasional feed in the corner, but otherwise his offense comes from broken plays or transition opportunities that he generally creates at the defensive end, so he calls his own number whenever the opportunity presents itself. This isn't a good habit, but it is what he is being taught to do in his role. The play in which he got injured was just such a play. The right play was the pass to Iwundu.

There is potentially so much value in developing his offensive game. There is tremendous value in having a legitimate max player on your team. Their salary is artificially suppressed. There have already been rumblings that Isaac will get the max on his next contract based just on what he brings at the defensive end. He certainly has the potential to be one of the most valuable defensive players in the entire league. Garnett was never a great offensive player. He wasn't a great finisher, he didn't have a great FTr, and he was a non-factor from three-point range, but Minnesota committed to his development early on and he learned to make the right decisions. He could punish a bad matchup and he could make the right pass. That's all you need to become a contributor at the offensive end.

I just have little confidence that this is going to happen with Isaac. He has played a lot when he has been healthy, but he spends almost all of the that time camping in a corner when we are running our offense. You don't learn to make decisions when you don't have the ball in your hands. I'm really skeptical that Clifford is the guy to help develop Isaac's offensive game. I just don't think Clifford gives a great deal of thought beyond the next game on the schedule, and that approach isn't all that conducive to the development of young talent.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#85 » by zaymon » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:41 am

While i agree about your analysis of Isaac offensive game at the moment i disagree about plan of future development. It is known that we didnt had development program before Weltman arrived, but now both coaching and performance staff are working together to design a personal development plan for all the players.
I dont remember that Isaac had that pretty eurostep at the beginning, also he uses fadeaway more this season and his footwork is improved.
Vucevic and Fournier improved under Clifford, Bamba improved, Isaac improved. Only major player who didnt improve is Gordon, but even him started to play better before the shutdown, and you could see that he worked on his post up game this summer ( he has no touch around the rim but he started to overpower smaller players on mismatches)
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#86 » by drsd » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:46 am

j-ragg wrote:
drsd wrote:Why would you think this?

Gorbert does not have the skill set that Orlando management has prioritized, in my opinion.

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a) I meant offensively.

b) Bamba has Gobert on wingspan by several inches, and he is taller. But in this narrative, why isn't Fall a Magician? That is a real question.


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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#87 » by drsd » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:47 am

MagicFan101 wrote:Not only is a super max to Gobert a very iffy move in general for any NBA team (including the Jazz), but even if Orlando had the cap space to sign him we just don’t have the roster for him. We should need to gut out big man rotation and somehow still add that star scoring guard to compliment him.

Once you see the entire picture you have to circle back to the initial stance that he isn’t a talent at position truly worthy of such a deal where I repeat ... why even bother asking this?


I hope this post Quells the idea of Gobert in Magic blue; it is not a real thought line.

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#88 » by drsd » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:49 am

Def Swami wrote:I think Hollinger estimated his value around 25M/ year, but i really hope we will get a discount.

Jaylen Brown re-signed with the Celtics last year for $115 million/4 years after a season averaging 13 ppg/4 rpg/1 apg and played in 74 games. It was paying off in a big way for the Celtics. Brown took a big leap this year in his role and production while also IMPROVING his efficiency. He went 20 ppg/6 rpg/2 apg on 49/38/73 splits.

Isaac at $100 mill/4 years would be tied with Vucevic for highest paid player on the team. Something about paying Isaac the highest on the team without showing the chops to be a lead guy on a team and his injury history sits awkwardly with me. I can buy the argument that he's the most valuable player on the team or as valuable as Vucevic. But, I think it speaks more to how fundamentally flawed our team is if our two highest paid players are probably not top 2 players on most playoff teams. The Brown contract doesn't look as pretty if his efficiency and production doesn't improve like it did. Brown's per 36 minute stats have always been better than Isaac's. So his production going up with more minutes wasn't too astounding, but his 3 point shooting becoming very good was a huge boon for the Celtics.

$100 million/4 years for Isaac is a bet that he's going to get better, which is a bet that I'd rather make than Vucevic leading the team to deep playoff runs or Aaron Gordon developing into an all-star, Evan Fournier learning to pass, or Markelle Fultz finding himself again. Isaac's value is probably in the tier that Brown's was last year. It's probably going to look more awkward without a Kemba Walker or Jayson Tatum level talent surrounding the roster. The Magic will eventually have to move some players around to make the room for Isaac's contract, especially with the salary cap to likely be lower over the next 2 seasons (that will also assuredly impact Isaac's overall contract, which will likely be less than the $100 million we are talking about).



Two questions:

i) How much do you think Isaac is worth?

ii) How much will Orlando pay for Isaac (and that number could be higher or lower)?


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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#89 » by SHAQ32 » Wed Jul 1, 2020 7:45 am

pepe1991 wrote:Isaac playing style is far more similar to Ibaka than to Siakam.
He is simplistic and robotic without much fludity when he has no easy options ( catch&shoot and putbacks ).
I would not pay 4th year Ibaka, with hindsight, max contract. Actually if you think about it, overpaying Ibaka actually broke OKC's hope for a championship.
So there is no reason to do the same for far more fragile Isaac even if you belive in his upside.

Siakam went in 8 years from never playing basketball to being 2# option on championship team.

I get what you're saying, but Ibaka doesn't have the same mobility, handles in transition, or shooting stroke though. And even as a defensive player he's not quite giving the same impact either.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#90 » by SOUL » Wed Jul 1, 2020 9:13 pm

You simply pay Isaac.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#91 » by PrimeThyme » Mon Jul 6, 2020 4:47 am

SOUL wrote:You simply pay Isaac.

Do you think he will warrant a max contract, and would you pay him that? Just out of curiosity.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#92 » by Bensational » Tue Jul 7, 2020 2:27 am

Let him go to market and match what he gets offered. I don't see another team offering him a max, personally. Both because I don't think he will be valued that highly, and because they'll know the Magic will match anything he gets offered anyway.

Depending on how his season goes next year, I could *presently* see him getting $20M a year increasing to $26M for the final year. Or, the equivalent percentage of any reduced cap. Basically, 20% of our cap.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#93 » by Knightro » Tue Jul 7, 2020 3:51 am

pepe1991 wrote:Isaac playing style is far more similar to Ibaka than to Siakam.
He is simplistic and robotic without much fludity when he has no easy options ( catch&shoot and putbacks ).
I would not pay 4th year Ibaka, with hindsight, max contract. Actually if you think about it, overpaying Ibaka actually broke OKC's hope for a championship.
So there is no reason to do the same for far more fragile Isaac even if you belive in his upside.

Siakam went in 8 years from never playing basketball to being 2# option on championship team.


The dirty little secret about Ibaka is that he was never actually an elite defender outside of 2012 which appears to be an outlier.

If Ibaka had been able to maintain the 2.3 BPM that he posted in 2012, he'd have been worth the money that he got paid. But instead he settled in to being pretty much a break even player both offensively and defensively.

He was a great shot blocker at one time, but that masked the fact he wasn't actually a great overall defender. When Ibaka got his second contract from OKC he was a -0.2 OBPM, 1.1 DBPM, 0.9 BPM guy for his career. Solid, but nothing special and he had regressed pretty significantly in year 4 compared to what he did in year 3.

Statistically, Isaac is one of the five best defensive players in the entire NBA right now. He already has two seasons better than any year of Ibaka's career defensively. There's no reason why Isaac won't continue to be a 2.5 to 3.5 DBPM guy moving forward. All Isaac has to do is become a 0.0 OBPM guy (not that difficult and not that far off) to be a top 20-40 player in the NBA in terms of box score impact.

If he becomes a 1.0 OBPM guy, then he'd be a top 15 to 25 player in terms of box score impact.

He's that good and that impactful defensively right now and only getting better.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#94 » by pepe1991 » Tue Jul 7, 2020 6:34 am

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Isaac playing style is far more similar to Ibaka than to Siakam.
He is simplistic and robotic without much fludity when he has no easy options ( catch&shoot and putbacks ).
I would not pay 4th year Ibaka, with hindsight, max contract. Actually if you think about it, overpaying Ibaka actually broke OKC's hope for a championship.
So there is no reason to do the same for far more fragile Isaac even if you belive in his upside.

Siakam went in 8 years from never playing basketball to being 2# option on championship team.


The dirty little secret about Ibaka is that he was never actually an elite defender outside of 2012 which appears to be an outlier.

If Ibaka had been able to maintain the 2.3 BPM that he posted in 2012, he'd have been worth the money that he got paid. But instead he settled in to being pretty much a break even player both offensively and defensively.

He was a great shot blocker at one time, but that masked the fact he wasn't actually a great overall defender. When Ibaka got his second contract from OKC he was a -0.2 OBPM, 1.1 DBPM, 0.9 BPM guy for his career. Solid, but nothing special and he had regressed pretty significantly in year 4 compared to what he did in year 3.

Statistically, Isaac is one of the five best defensive players in the entire NBA right now. He already has two seasons better than any year of Ibaka's career defensively. There's no reason why Isaac won't continue to be a 2.5 to 3.5 DBPM guy moving forward. All Isaac has to do is become a 0.0 OBPM guy (not that difficult and not that far off) to be a top 20-40 player in the NBA in terms of box score impact.

If he becomes a 1.0 OBPM guy, then he'd be a top 15 to 25 player in terms of box score impact.

He's that good and that impactful defensively right now and only getting better.


OKC in 2011-12 was 9th best defense and he was huge reason why. Same was year later where they were 4th best defense. However, team that played at times Harden, Westbrook and Derick Fisher in same lineup was never going to be elite defensive team without somebody to "patch" things up.
There was period of time when Ibaka guarded most isolations in whole nba. And did good job.
His defense slipped over time and you mentioned his RPM. His RPM in year 3 ( overall) is still higher than Isaac ever had to this point ( +2,3 ).
Isaac only played 32 games whole season, being " top 5 defender in entire nba" really is exaggeration for somebody who is on pace to once again miss 60% of a season. He was done by the new calendar year. That's why he is not mentioned in any "all nba defense" whatsoever. Simply not enough games.

My whole point is that being 12 ppg player in era of offense ( with so little focus on defense all together) is not max contract worthy player. For same reason guys like Robert Covington, Smart, Al Horford, Dejounte Murray , if they don't offer close to elite offense, should not be max contract guys. All guys mentioned had +2,0 DBPM at one point.
Hell , Draymoond Green without passing and specific system was never worth max .
Add to that 1/3 healthy seasons, it's flat out dumb to offer max to somebody who can't even stay on the floor. Add to that fact that his FGA still bring netative value to offense, that his efficiency is still below average, talking in "old" dollars, before corona, 4 years, $80M is logical offer. That's what Gordon got, guy was only hurt in his rookie year.

We talk about max contract here. Him getting same money as Tatum or Mitchell who are allstar level players is simply silly. Adebayo is allstar and i highly doubt he'll get max... Same Adebayo has +3,6 BPM.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#95 » by jezzerinho » Tue Jul 7, 2020 9:35 am

Very true, Pepe..

Except in Orlando, they **** their pants at the thought of losing FAs so they roll up the Brinks truck every time.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#96 » by Knightro » Tue Jul 7, 2020 2:14 pm

pepe1991 wrote:OKC in 2011-12 was 9th best defense and he was huge reason why. Same was year later where they were 4th best defense. However, team that played at times Harden, Westbrook and Derick Fisher in same lineup was never going to be elite defensive team without somebody to "patch" things up.
There was period of time when Ibaka guarded most isolations in whole nba. And did good job.
His defense slipped over time and you mentioned his RPM. His RPM in year 3 ( overall) is still higher than Isaac ever had to this point ( +2,3 ).


Ibaka's third year was his best year by a wide margin from a BPM perspective. He was +2.3 that year, but he never topped +1.7 at any point after that. He just never came close to replicating his third year from a BPM perspective.

Isaac's a +2.0 BPM guy in year 3. Personally, I think Isaac's going to keep getting better and not regress like Ibaka did defensively because the style of play in the league isn't shifting dramatically around him.

When Ibaka had the best defensive year of his career, the NBA average was 19 3PT attempts per game. Three years later it was up to 24 threes a game. Today it's 34 threes a game per team on average. The way teams play offense changed significantly and Ibaka simply wasn't suited to adapt defensively.

Isaac doesn't have to deal with that. The game pretty much is what it is at this point and Isaac's already proven he can be an extreme disruptor defensively in an offensively minded era.

pepe1991 wrote:Isaac only played 32 games whole season, being " top 5 defender in entire nba" really is exaggeration for somebody who is on pace to once again miss 60% of a season. He was done by the new calendar year. That's why he is not mentioned in any "all nba defense" whatsoever. Simply not enough games.


In the 32 games Isaac played this past year, he was one of the very best defenders in the league. This is undeniable. Yes, he got injured, but it doesn't change the fact he was one of the best right up until the night he got injured. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't have continued to be a dominant defensive player over the course of the entire season.

pepe1991 wrote:My whole point is that being 12 ppg player in era of offense ( with so little focus on defense all together) is not max contract worthy player. For same reason guys like Robert Covington, Smart, Al Horford, Dejounte Murray , if they don't offer close to elite offense, should not be max contract guys. All guys mentioned had +2,0 DBPM at one point.


My counter to this is that Isaac is already a significantly more impactful defensive player than every guy you mentioned.

DBPM Career Highs
Horford +2.0 (career +1.1)
Smart +2.0 (career +1.3)
Covington +2.1 (career +1.1)
Murray + 2.2 (career +1.7)

Isaac's career best is already +2.9 and I see no reason why it won't be over 3.0 moving forward. That's rare air. If Isaac is going to continue to be THAT good defensively, then his OBPM only has to be around +1.0 for him to have top 20 player impact.

pepe1991 wrote:Add to that 1/3 healthy seasons, it's flat out dumb to offer max to somebody who can't even stay on the floor. Add to that fact that his FGA still bring netative value to offense, that his efficiency is still below average, talking in "old" dollars, before corona, 4 years, $80M is logical offer. That's what Gordon got, guy was only hurt in his rookie year.

We talk about max contract here. Him getting same money as Tatum or Mitchell who are allstar level players is simply silly. Adebayo is allstar and i highly doubt he'll get max... Same Adebayo has +3,6 BPM.


Now this I agree with. I wouldn't blindly give Isaac a max contract. The Magic don't need to negotiate against themselves here.

I think something in the 20-25M range should work fine. The cap will probably dip or level off this upcoming offseason, but it's inevitably going to increase again once fans are able to return.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#97 » by jonbob17 » Tue Jul 7, 2020 5:45 pm

I think it would be in the best interest of both the Magic and Isaac to work out an extension this year. If he improves much on offense next year he will be looking at something close to a max.
Something approaching 25M sounds about right.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#98 » by Knightro » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:34 pm

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#99 » by Def Swami » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:39 pm

Not sure why they took Isaac to the "bubble", but left Aminu behind at the practice facility for rehab. If there's no chance for Isaac to play, and he needs more rehab, then shouldn't he just stay behind?
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#100 » by SOUL » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:41 pm

Def Swami wrote:Not sure why they took Isaac to the "bubble", but left Aminu behind at the practice facility for rehab. If there's no chance for Isaac to play, and he needs more rehab, then shouldn't he just stay behind?


I think they're being coy about it. And if he's ahead of "schedule" (whatever the schedule is), I think maybe he plays in the playoffs compared to not playing during the regular season, or at the very least, plays sparingly the last few games to gear up for the playoffs.
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