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Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#101 » by Skybox » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:54 pm

SOUL wrote:
Def Swami wrote:Not sure why they took Isaac to the "bubble", but left Aminu behind at the practice facility for rehab. If there's no chance for Isaac to play, and he needs more rehab, then shouldn't he just stay behind?


I think they're being coy about it. And if he's ahead of "schedule" (whatever the schedule is), I think maybe he plays in the playoffs compared to not playing during the regular season, or at the very least, plays sparingly the last few games to gear up for the playoffs.


Absolutely. I wouldn't take it as a sure thing but it'd be irresponsible to bring anyone into the bubble that's def not playing. There must be at least a remote chance he plays at some point. They could also keep their options open until the last minute. No reason to make any firm announcements yet.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#102 » by RookieStar » Tue Jul 7, 2020 9:10 pm

Unless they let JI out of the bubble early, I really don't see any reason for him to be with the team inside the bubble. I think there is something in the works and JI will play.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#103 » by Def Swami » Tue Jul 7, 2020 11:38 pm

Skybox wrote:
SOUL wrote:
Def Swami wrote:Not sure why they took Isaac to the "bubble", but left Aminu behind at the practice facility for rehab. If there's no chance for Isaac to play, and he needs more rehab, then shouldn't he just stay behind?


I think they're being coy about it. And if he's ahead of "schedule" (whatever the schedule is), I think maybe he plays in the playoffs compared to not playing during the regular season, or at the very least, plays sparingly the last few games to gear up for the playoffs.


Absolutely. I wouldn't take it as a sure thing but it'd be irresponsible to bring anyone into the bubble that's def not playing. There must be at least a remote chance he plays at some point. They could also keep their options open until the last minute. No reason to make any firm announcements yet.

Seems like the Magic aren't planning for him to play, and I think that's fair. His risk for injury in a ramp up like this is too high. Might as well just sit him. And if he wants to be in the bubble to be with the team, then I think that's noble.
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Also, I wish the team was planning on life without Aminu instead. :(
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#104 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 8, 2020 1:04 am

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#105 » by basketballRob » Wed Jul 8, 2020 1:10 am

The Magic would be smart to pay Isaac and Fultz this season. If they wait, i have a feeling it will cost them. Someone will offer Isaac close to a max deal.

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#106 » by J the Drafter » Wed Jul 8, 2020 2:14 am

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:OKC in 2011-12 was 9th best defense and he was huge reason why. Same was year later where they were 4th best defense. However, team that played at times Harden, Westbrook and Derick Fisher in same lineup was never going to be elite defensive team without somebody to "patch" things up.
There was period of time when Ibaka guarded most isolations in whole nba. And did good job.
His defense slipped over time and you mentioned his RPM. His RPM in year 3 ( overall) is still higher than Isaac ever had to this point ( +2,3 ).


Ibaka's third year was his best year by a wide margin from a BPM perspective. He was +2.3 that year, but he never topped +1.7 at any point after that. He just never came close to replicating his third year from a BPM perspective.

Isaac's a +2.0 BPM guy in year 3. Personally, I think Isaac's going to keep getting better and not regress like Ibaka did defensively because the style of play in the league isn't shifting dramatically around him.

When Ibaka had the best defensive year of his career, the NBA average was 19 3PT attempts per game. Three years later it was up to 24 threes a game. Today it's 34 threes a game per team on average. The way teams play offense changed significantly and Ibaka simply wasn't suited to adapt defensively.

Isaac doesn't have to deal with that. The game pretty much is what it is at this point and Isaac's already proven he can be an extreme disruptor defensively in an offensively minded era.

pepe1991 wrote:Isaac only played 32 games whole season, being " top 5 defender in entire nba" really is exaggeration for somebody who is on pace to once again miss 60% of a season. He was done by the new calendar year. That's why he is not mentioned in any "all nba defense" whatsoever. Simply not enough games.


In the 32 games Isaac played this past year, he was one of the very best defenders in the league. This is undeniable. Yes, he got injured, but it doesn't change the fact he was one of the best right up until the night he got injured. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't have continued to be a dominant defensive player over the course of the entire season.

pepe1991 wrote:My whole point is that being 12 ppg player in era of offense ( with so little focus on defense all together) is not max contract worthy player. For same reason guys like Robert Covington, Smart, Al Horford, Dejounte Murray , if they don't offer close to elite offense, should not be max contract guys. All guys mentioned had +2,0 DBPM at one point.


My counter to this is that Isaac is already a significantly more impactful defensive player than every guy you mentioned.

DBPM Career Highs
Horford +2.0 (career +1.1)
Smart +2.0 (career +1.3)
Covington +2.1 (career +1.1)
Murray + 2.2 (career +1.7)

Isaac's career best is already +2.9 and I see no reason why it won't be over 3.0 moving forward. That's rare air. If Isaac is going to continue to be THAT good defensively, then his OBPM only has to be around +1.0 for him to have top 20 player impact.

pepe1991 wrote:Add to that 1/3 healthy seasons, it's flat out dumb to offer max to somebody who can't even stay on the floor. Add to that fact that his FGA still bring netative value to offense, that his efficiency is still below average, talking in "old" dollars, before corona, 4 years, $80M is logical offer. That's what Gordon got, guy was only hurt in his rookie year.

We talk about max contract here. Him getting same money as Tatum or Mitchell who are allstar level players is simply silly. Adebayo is allstar and i highly doubt he'll get max... Same Adebayo has +3,6 BPM.


Now this I agree with. I wouldn't blindly give Isaac a max contract. The Magic don't need to negotiate against themselves here.

I think something in the 20-25M range should work fine. The cap will probably dip or level off this upcoming offseason, but it's inevitably going to increase again once fans are able to return.

Ibaka’s athleticism declined sharply at age 26, after anthroscopic knee surgery. I believe that is the reason his defense fell off, not the NBA’s usage of the three.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#107 » by drsd » Wed Jul 8, 2020 8:58 am

RookieStar wrote:Unless they let JI out of the bubble early, I really don't see any reason for him to be with the team inside the bubble. I think there is something in the works and JI will play.


I would think players can leave the Bubble at will. They just would not be allowed to re-enter if they did so.


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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#108 » by drsd » Wed Jul 8, 2020 9:00 am

Isaac is in the bubble:

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#109 » by jezzerinho » Wed Jul 8, 2020 10:11 am

Weltman pretty much said Isaac is there as a cheerleader and little else.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#110 » by TheGlyde » Wed Jul 8, 2020 10:41 am

drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Unless they let JI out of the bubble early, I really don't see any reason for him to be with the team inside the bubble. I think there is something in the works and JI will play.


I would think players can leave the Bubble at will. They just would not be allowed to re-enter if they did so.


..


They can leave at will.

If the absence is approved (eg death in the family, birth of child), they are gone for less than 7 days, and pass COVID testing during the absence and as they return, they need to quarantine for 4 days upon their return.

If the absence is not approved (booty call, etc), they need to quarantine for 10 days upon their return, regardless of test results.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#111 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 8, 2020 2:11 pm

J the Drafter wrote:Ibaka’s athleticism declined sharply at age 26, after arthroscopic knee surgery. I believe that is the reason his defense fell off, not the NBA’s usage of the three.


Ibaka's knee injury was definitely a factor, but statistically he wasn't a spectacular defender at age 23, 24 or 25 either for what that's worth.

His box score production declined every year from 2012 to 2015 which was pre knee surgery.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#112 » by PrimeThyme » Wed Jul 8, 2020 3:08 pm

jezzerinho wrote:Weltman pretty much said Isaac is there as a cheerleader and little else.

Anyone who was thinking otherwise was honestly just kidding themselves. This front office is too predictable and safe for that.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#113 » by J the Drafter » Wed Jul 8, 2020 7:10 pm

Knightro wrote:
J the Drafter wrote:Ibaka’s athleticism declined sharply at age 26, after arthroscopic knee surgery. I believe that is the reason his defense fell off, not the NBA’s usage of the three.


Ibaka's knee injury was definitely a factor, but statistically he wasn't a spectacular defender at age 23, 24 or 25 either for what that's worth.

His box score production declined every year from 2012 to 2015 which was pre knee surgery.

I didn’t know that. Is that it possible his knee was hindering his performance before he got surgery?
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#114 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 8, 2020 7:50 pm

J the Drafter wrote:I didn’t know that. Is that it possible his knee was hindering his performance before he got surgery?


Oh absolutely. No one but Ibaka himself really knows how long the knee was bothering him.

It could have been chronic, but manageable pain for years.

All I know is that statistically he was only a dominant defensive player one year of his career (2012). He was a good defender in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014, but not nearly as impactful as Isaac was this past season.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#115 » by Xatticus » Wed Jul 8, 2020 8:16 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:
jezzerinho wrote:Weltman pretty much said Isaac is there as a cheerleader and little else.

Anyone who was thinking otherwise was honestly just kidding themselves. This front office is too predictable and safe for that.


I suspect that this is all about accommodating the players. Isaac is there because he wants to be there. Aminu isn't there because he doesn't want to be there. I know Weltman stated otherwise regarding Aminu, but I'm skeptical.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#116 » by drsd » Thu Jul 9, 2020 9:41 am

Xatticus wrote: Isaac is there because he wants to be there. .


I think this trivialises the benefits for Isaac to be at and near the games. Also: if Orlando moves deep in tot he playoffs, I can see Isaac being activated. Whether Eastern second round would be enough, or if it needs to be Eastern Finals. Keeping Isaac in the bubble is about keeping a dream alive of Orlando winning a title.

Most statistics has Orlando at a 1% chance to make the Eastern Finals series. For me that number is large enough that Isaac needs to be Bubble'ised.


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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#117 » by PrimeThyme » Thu Jul 9, 2020 2:49 pm

Idk if Swami or someone else can elaborate but what aren't these hacks telling us about Isaacs's injury? The nonoperative form of this type of knee injury is supposed to have him returning to play in 8 weeks. Isaac is going on 6 months with no return in sight. Are they just being hyper safe or did he have some form of reconstructive knee surgery?
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#118 » by Def Swami » Thu Jul 9, 2020 5:54 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:Idk if Swami or someone else can elaborate but what aren't these hacks telling us about Isaacs's injury? The nonoperative form of this type of knee injury is supposed to have him returning to play in 8 weeks. Isaac is going on 6 months with no return in sight. Are they just being hyper safe or did he have some form of reconstructive knee surgery?

The Magic are notoriously vague about everything when it comes to reporting their injuries. I've kind of given up on trying to interpret them at this point.

The 8 week mark was always meant as a "re-evaluation point." If you listened to Josh Robbins or Zach Lowe, they were always pessimistic about Isaac returning at all this season. Isaac never required a surgery. He's simply been doing rehab.

I don't believe Weltman and Hammond were ever going to bring Isaac back this season even without the suspended season, even if Isaac had been deemed "cleared." Here's Weltman 5 months ago:

“Yeah, I never want to say a thousand percent, but I think we’re not expecting him back, put it that way,” Weltman responded when asked if he could confirm if Isaac is expected to sit out the remainder of the season. “And if we’re pleasantly surprised then so be it, but the fact of the matter is the longer you’re out you’re gonna get de-conditioned and we don’t ever wanna rush our guys back or put them in a position to get re-injured, god forbid. We’re taking a very cautious approach as we always do.”Isaac, by all my accounts including a recent podcast he did with Howard Beck of Bleacher Report, is way more optimistic about his ability to play. Isaac himself himself feels fine, which is encouraging.


Here's what Isaac told Josh Robbins in April about returning in the "bubble":
“That’s the question that I’ve been getting most as well,” Isaac responded when asked if we could potentially see him back again this season, via Josh Robbins of The Athletic. “And I love the question. It’s a great question. It’s an amazing question. It’s one that I’m asking myself in terms of, ‘Listen, the farther that this goes back on, as my rehab continues to progress, is there a window where I could possibly play?’

My answer is: If there is, then great! If I’m ready to play when this thing adjourns, I want to play.”

I can’t really speak for the front office,” said the 22-year-old. “I can’t speak for everybody as a whole. At the end of the day, it really comes down to them because they want to make sure that everything is good, that I’m preserved and everything. And that’s great.

“But if I’m in a place where my knee is great, my mental (outlook) is great, my spirit is great and I’m in a place where I can play a game and I have a couple of weeks of conditioning, a couple of weeks of basketball where I’m like, ‘I’m set and I’m ready to play,’ then I’ll go ahead and play.”

My impression of all this is that Isaac probably could play. I don't believe the injury is worse than billed. He never required a surgery. But the front office is making a conscious decision to hold him out to prevent any injury that would hold him back for the 20-21 season.

In some ways, I kind of understand why the Magic would hold him out. It's the same reason that the Nets would never allow Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving to play even if they were "cleared" to play (Woj mentioned this in one of his podcasts last month). Most soft tissue injuries that happen in the NBA happen in the first few weeks of training camp, pre-season, and regular season because there is such a quick ramp up in activities. This is going to be even quicker than usual. The Magic want no part of any risk of Isaac getting any injury. I think they've made the calculation that protecting Isaac to be completely healthy for the 20-21 season is more important to them and Isaac than any experience he might gain or value he might add to the Magic's playoff performance in this bubble.

I'm not sure I totally agree with that assessment. At this point, I think every player hasn't really been in basketball shape for the last 4 months. I think everyone is equally out of shape and increased risk for injury. I think Isaac could really help us in the playoffs. I think Isaac could benefit from the experience. At the same time, I get why their concerns with Isaac just coming off the injury. In similar vain, Victor Oladipo, who could probably play, is coming off a bad quadriceps injury. There's no reason to risk any further injury or further aggravation of the injury knowing the outcome is likely a first or second round out.

I wonder how seriously some of these teams are going to take these games. I think teams who know they don't have a shot, like the Pacers, Nets, Wizards, Suns, Spurs are going to mail it in. I could see teams holding guys out (the Wizards are already holding out Brad Beal and Davis Bertans; the Nets are fielding a G League team). I think there are going to be a faction of teams who use this to develop young players and honor their RSN contracts. The real contenders will go at it hard, and are more likely to extend their players a little further.
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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#119 » by basketballRob » Thu Jul 9, 2020 10:36 pm

Looks like Isaac was practicing today.

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Re: Jonathan Isaac ran for the first time since Jan. 1 this week 

Post#120 » by jezzerinho » Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:42 pm

Weltman said he has been doing light practice stuff but won't likely be ready to play a part.

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