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poll: how far will the Magic go this season?

Moderators: UCFJayBird, Howard Mass, UCF, ChosenSavior, Knightro, SOUL, Def Swami

How far will the Magic go this season?

Miss the playoffs in the play-in game
2
5%
Be the play-in champion and lose in round 1
0
No votes
Be the 8-seed outright and lose in round 1
3
8%
Be the 7-seed lose in round 1
21
57%
Lose in round 2
7
19%
Lose in the Eastern Finals
1
3%
Lose in the NBA Finals
0
No votes
Win the Championship
3
8%
 
Total votes: 37

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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#41 » by drsd » Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:13 pm

Knightro wrote:
TheGlyde wrote:Cliff has spoken about playing an extended rotation of 11-12 guys. Essentially load managing everyone coming off the long hiatus.

I am interested to see whether we get improved play from Ennis and Clark now that they arent trying to learn everything on the fly and have been here through the whole restart (minus Ennis’ COVID days).


Respectfully to Clifford, I’ll believe this when I see it.

I could see him playing a bunch of guys during the scrimmages and maybe even the first 2-3 games, but I have a feeling Clifford is going to want to finalize a rotation and get his core rotation of guys ready to extend themselves before the playoffs start.


Coach Clifford's' response to load- management will engage the W/L records of the Nets and the Wizards. If either of these teams totally busts, I see EXTENSIVE load management (in the sense that all 8 games will be used to assess player interactions).

Look: even if the Magic go 7-1, there is likely to be little difference to a SEVEN-seed than if the team had gone 3-5.



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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#42 » by Knightro » Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:31 pm

drsd wrote:Coach Clifford's' response to load- management will engage the W/L records of the Nets and the Wizards. If either of these teams totally busts, I see EXTENSIVE load management (in the sense that all 8 games will be used to assess player interactions).

Look: even if the Magic go 7-1, there is likely to be little difference to a SEVEN-seed than if the team had gone 3-5.


I'm not concerned about seeding at all and I don't think the Magic are considering that either.

What I am wholly confident in is that Steve Clifford is most certainly not going to play 11 or 12 players once the playoffs start. He'll tighten his rotation like pretty much all coaches do.

To that end, I would be absolutely shocked if the Magic don't progressively shrink their rotation from game 1 of the relaunch to game 8.

I just can't see a scenario where the Magic are playing 11 or 12 guys in the final couple of games and then expecting guys to be ready to go 35-40 minutes a night against Milwaukee or Toronto.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#43 » by drsd » Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:53 pm

Knightro wrote:I'm not concerned about seeding at all and I don't think the Magic are considering that either.


Well: so long as there is no play-in game. That will be monitored carefully !



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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#44 » by drsd » Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:54 pm

Knightro wrote:I just can't see a scenario where the Magic are playing 11 or 12 guys in the final couple of games and then expecting guys to be ready to go 35-40 minutes a night against Milwaukee or Toronto.


I do not agree. I thin come playoff times - Orlando will revert to a standard 9-player rotation. The unknown is if Isaac is part of it, or not. And in that, I would assume Iwundu would be the odd-man out of this.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#45 » by Knightro » Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:19 pm

drsd wrote:
Knightro wrote:I just can't see a scenario where the Magic are playing 11 or 12 guys in the final couple of games and then expecting guys to be ready to go 35-40 minutes a night against Milwaukee or Toronto.


I do not agree. I thin come playoff times - Orlando will revert to a standard 9-player rotation. The unknown is if Isaac is part of it, or not. And in that, I would assume Iwundu would be the odd-man out of this.


We're saying the same thing.

I completely agree that the Magic are going to play 8 or 9 guys in the playoffs.

But because of that, I would be really surprised if Clifford opted to play 11 or 12 during the entire 8 game tune up for the playoffs. I think Clifford will progressively tighten up the rotation so the guys will be able to avoid the shock to the system of having to go balls to the wall in the first playoff game.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#46 » by drsd » Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:25 pm

Knightro wrote:I completely agree that the Magic are going to play 8 or 9 guys in the playoffs.


Injury free, this is certain as:

Fultz/Augustin
Fournier/Ross
xxx/yyy
Gordon
Vučević/Bamba

For me the question is "who is Mr. xxx and Mr. yyy?" : Carter-Williams, Iwundu, Isaac, and Birch are the only rational candidates. Four players for two slots.


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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#47 » by Knightro » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:19 pm

drsd wrote:
Knightro wrote:I completely agree that the Magic are going to play 8 or 9 guys in the playoffs.


Injury free, this is certain as:

Fultz/Augustin
Fournier/Ross
xxx/yyy
Gordon
Vučević/Bamba

For me the question is "who is Mr. xxx and Mr. yyy?" : Carter-Williams, Iwundu, Isaac, and Birch are the only rational candidates. Four players for two slots.


Personally?

I think it's a near 100% lock that Carter-Williams is in the rotation and Birch is not.

Fultz/Augustin
Fournier/MCW
Ennis/Ross
Gordon
Vucevic/Bamba

Is what I expect the 9 man rotation to be if Isaac can't play.

If Isaac can play, I would go ahead and put him back in the starting lineup and bench Ennis.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#48 » by drsd » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:41 pm

Knightro wrote:I think it's a near 100% lock that Carter-Williams is in the rotation and Birch is not.

Fultz/Augustin
Fournier/MCW
Ennis/Ross
Gordon
Vucevic/Bamba

Is what I expect the 9 man rotation to be if Isaac can't play.

If Isaac can play, I would go ahead and put him back in the starting lineup and bench Ennis.


What is clear is that you also see a small-ball rotation.

Not that I disagree with you, but this is the three-PG rotation I talked about (not that all three PGs play together; but that the Magic will play a LOT of two PG sets with all of their PGs).

Fultz/Augustin and Augustin/Carter-Williams and Fultz/Carter-Williams sets will all log minutes in my opinion.
Orlando could go full Chaos ball. Let's just pray none of these three gets injured under said scenario.

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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#49 » by Knightro » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:51 pm

drsd wrote:What is clear is that you also see a small-ball rotation.

Not that I disagree with you, but this is the three-PG rotation I talked about (not that all three PGs play together; but that the Magic will play a LOT of two PG sets with all of their PGs).

Fultz/Augustin and Augustin/Carter-Williams and Fultz/Carter-Williams sets will all log minutes in my opinion.
Orlando could go full Chaos ball. Let's just pray none of these three gets injured under said scenario.


I mean technically?

It just seems a little silly to me to consider Carter-Williams a point guard at this point when has played basically no point guard minutes outside of the time Augustin was hurt.

When the Magic have had their full contingent of guards, which they have right now, MCW has played pretty much exclusively off the ball on offense and he’s defended SGs and SFs pretty much the entire season.

Plus it’s not like Carter-Williams is a small guy. He’s 6’5” with 6’7” wingspan, so he’s essentially the same size as Terrence Ross.

The only thing small about the Magic’s rotation is that they don’t have a healthy backup PF right now outside of Clark who isn’t really a playoff caliber rotation player. They have a 7 foot plus, pure center on the floor no matter what.

The only real difference between the Magic right now and the Magic if they were 100% healthy is Ennis starting at F in place of Isaac.

MCW would be playing regardless.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#50 » by zaymon » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:20 pm

Knightro wrote:
drsd wrote:What is clear is that you also see a small-ball rotation.

Not that I disagree with you, but this is the three-PG rotation I talked about (not that all three PGs play together; but that the Magic will play a LOT of two PG sets with all of their PGs).

Fultz/Augustin and Augustin/Carter-Williams and Fultz/Carter-Williams sets will all log minutes in my opinion.
Orlando could go full Chaos ball. Let's just pray none of these three gets injured under said scenario.


I mean technically?

It just seems a little silly to me to consider Carter-Williams a point guard at this point when has played basically no point guard minutes outside of the time Augustin was hurt.

When the Magic have had their full contingent of guards, which they have right now, MCW has played pretty much exclusively off the ball on offense and he’s defended SGs and SFs pretty much the entire season.

Plus it’s not like Carter-Williams is a small guy. He’s 6’5” with 6’7” wingspan, so he’s essentially the same size as Terrence Ross.

The only thing small about the Magic’s rotation is that they don’t have a healthy backup PF right now outside of Clark who isn’t really a playoff caliber rotation player. They have a 7 foot plus, pure center on the floor no matter what.

The only real difference between the Magic right now and the Magic if they were 100% healthy is Ennis starting at F in place of Isaac.

MCW would be playing regardless.

MCW is huge for us and i credit Clifford for turning him from unplayable guard to valueable wing stopper. It would be so disappointing if some other team stole him from us next season.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#51 » by drsd » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:46 pm

Knightro wrote:Plus it’s not like Carter-Williams is a small guy. He’s 6’5” with 6’7” wingspan, so he’s essentially the same size as Terrence Ross.


Carter-Williams is basically a point forward off of the bench. His 6’5” with 6’7” wingspan is small for a SF, and yes this is part of a small ball lineup, as he would be paired with not-Gordon as the PF.

But it was just working !

Augustin off-of the ball as a deep PG, with Ross as a co-long-bomber. Carter-Williams setting plays with Ennis/Birch as the PFs. It does work.


But let us all pray Vučević stays healthy. No lineup the Magic can fathom works without Vučević getting 28-32 mpg. NONE>



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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#52 » by Knightro » Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:08 pm

drsd wrote:Carter-Williams is basically a point forward off of the bench. His 6’5” with 6’7” wingspan is small for a SF, and yes this is part of a small ball lineup, as he would be paired with not-Gordon as the PF.

But it was just working !

Augustin off-of the ball as a deep PG, with Ross as a co-long-bomber. Carter-Williams setting plays with Ennis/Birch as the PFs. It does work.

But let us all pray Vučević stays healthy. No lineup the Magic can fathom works without Vučević getting 28-32 mpg. NONE


But my point still stands. MCW would still be playing as a backup 2/3 even if Isaac was healthy. That's not a new development. He was playing 20 minutes a night as a backup 2/3 in December before Isaac ever got hurt.

The only thing different in the Magic's rotation during their hot streak in Feb and March and what the Magic's rotation would be if Isaac was ready to go is Ennis is playing forward instead of Isaac.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202003040MIA.html - here's the last game the Magic played before Fournier got injured during the hot streak. This is the rotation I'd expect to see in the playoffs if Isaac can't play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201912170UTA.html Here's one of the last game's the Magic had before Isaac got hurt - This is the rotation I'd expect to see in the playoffs if Isaac can play.

Quite literally the only difference is Ennis in place of Isaac. Everything else is essentially the same.

Magic approximate minute distribution playoff rotation without Isaac

G: Fultz, 30, Augustin 18
G: Fournier 31, MCW 17,
F: Ennis 16, Ross 30, MCW 2
F: Gordon 38, Ennis 10
C: Vucevic 35, Bamba 13

Magic approximate minute distribution playoff rotation with Isaac

G: Fultz, 30, Augustin 18
G: Fournier 31, MCW 17
F: Isaac 18, Ross 30
F: Gordon 35, Isaac 13
C: Vucevic 35, Bamba 13

Pretty much the same only swap out Ennis for Isaac. Gordon's minutes would likely come out a tiny bit since Isaac is better than Ennis, but that's about it.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#53 » by BadMofoPimp » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:42 pm

Magic won't even leave Orlando this season.
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#54 » by Skybox » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:30 pm

Who in the NBA is more poised for a national bubble breakout than Fultz?
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Re: poll: how far will the Magic go this season? 

Post#55 » by TheGlyde » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:37 am

Knightro wrote:
drsd wrote:Carter-Williams is basically a point forward off of the bench. His 6’5” with 6’7” wingspan is small for a SF, and yes this is part of a small ball lineup, as he would be paired with not-Gordon as the PF.

But it was just working !

Augustin off-of the ball as a deep PG, with Ross as a co-long-bomber. Carter-Williams setting plays with Ennis/Birch as the PFs. It does work.

But let us all pray Vučević stays healthy. No lineup the Magic can fathom works without Vučević getting 28-32 mpg. NONE


But my point still stands. MCW would still be playing as a backup 2/3 even if Isaac was healthy. That's not a new development. He was playing 20 minutes a night as a backup 2/3 in December before Isaac ever got hurt.

The only thing different in the Magic's rotation during their hot streak in Feb and March and what the Magic's rotation would be if Isaac was ready to go is Ennis is playing forward instead of Isaac.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202003040MIA.html - here's the last game the Magic played before Fournier got injured during the hot streak. This is the rotation I'd expect to see in the playoffs if Isaac can't play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201912170UTA.html Here's one of the last game's the Magic had before Isaac got hurt - This is the rotation I'd expect to see in the playoffs if Isaac can play.

Quite literally the only difference is Ennis in place of Isaac. Everything else is essentially the same.

Magic approximate minute distribution playoff rotation without Isaac

G: Fultz, 30, Augustin 18
G: Fournier 31, MCW 17,
F: Ennis 16, Ross 30, MCW 2
F: Gordon 38, Ennis 10
C: Vucevic 35, Bamba 13

Magic approximate minute distribution playoff rotation with Isaac

G: Fultz, 30, Augustin 18
G: Fournier 31, MCW 17
F: Isaac 18, Ross 30
F: Gordon 35, Isaac 13
C: Vucevic 35, Bamba 13

Pretty much the same only swap out Ennis for Isaac. Gordon's minutes would likely come out a tiny bit since Isaac is better than Ennis, but that's about it.


Cliff did double down on it again on the podcast today, specifically in the case of Vuc and AG, saying those two cant play their normal minutes when its 8 games in 15 nights.

I agree with you on the playoffs, and I agree the rotation will get shorter as the playoffs get closer (unless we lock up the 7 seed a few games out)
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