Xatticus wrote: drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Building team without superstar is waste of time. However, how to get one should be the main talking point here.
Declining value as valiable option with new draft changes, high risk - questionable reward. Lot ot times players don't live up to hype or need years until they are really good. By that point most of them change teams.
Stars get payed, to match salaries you have to sell your assets
3) free agency
most unreliable strategy
I would argue that the draft is the most unreliable mechanism to gain a top-10 star. Tanking does not work.
BUT: teams drafting for stars does work. Most elite teams today found talent in the draft, via NOT tanking. So the quandary exists.
Do not tank but use a draft slot to be excellent.
This is clearly where I felt the Magic failed in Bamba. Whatever next year's trade-down market for an obvious "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander" player, Orlando needs to start making said trades****. I am happy as Fultz will be better than Gilgeous-Alexander, but on the draft night, selecting Bamba when an obiovusius SGA trade was there to make, it made no sense.
p.s. I am sick of all NBA mangers selecting in the draft based on height. Length: ok. But height. This makes no sense.
I could go thought the last 5 draft were I could clearly see bad draft selections. (I could not see "good" draft selections and thus I am not a NBA GM.). But bad is obviously bad.
*** = Orlando might need to trade up to the 6-9 range in this narrative for the coming draft.
This is just wrong. You can argue about the efficacy of tanking as it relates to building a winning roster, but you can't argue that it doesn't help land stars. It just does. Higher draft picks have more value because they yield better players. Prospect evaluation isn't a perfected science, but it's not a crapshoot either, which is essentially what you are suggesting.
2009- 6 allstars, 2 in top 5, 2 late lottery, 2 outside
2010 -4 allstars ( 2 top 5 picks)
2011- 7 allstars, 1 selected in top 5, 3 total in lottery, 3 outside lottery
2012- 6 allstars, 2 in top 5, 4 in lottery 2 outside lottery
2013- 3 allstars, 1 in top 5, 2 outside lottery
2014- 2 allstars, 1 in top 5 , 1 outside lottery
2015- 4 allstars, 3 in top 5. 1 outside lottery
2016- 4 allstars, 2 in top 5, 1 late lottery, 1 outside lottery
2017- 3 allstars, 1 in top 5, 2 in late lottery
39 allstar selected players
among 45 top 5 picks, 15 of them made allstar ( 33% of them)
81 player selected in late lottery- 15 allstars (18%)
13 outside lottery
Chances of dropping outside top 5 are sky high. 3rd worst record has 47,8% to draft outside 5 slot and is almost bound to draft 6th.
I'm not saying best players are not drafted in lottery, on paper, they are, however, putting yourself in situation where you are drafting high enough to get them is tricky and something that is almost completely based on dumb luck. I don't find dumb luck "strategy".
Dumb odds once again , in 2020 lottery happend. Hornets were 1 slot away from bubble and playoffs, they literally ended up having higher seed than Wizards- by not playing. Yet Hornets landed 3rd pick, where Wizards and Knicks draft 8th and 9th