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If WeHam run it back - this may be why...

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If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#1 » by Bensational » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:07 am

So, digging through some lineup data just cos... I was looking at our clutch numbers.

Vuc = 1.7fgas @ 37.5% (31.3% from 3)
Founier = 1.6fgas @ 27.7% (22.7% from 3)
Fultz = 1.4fgas @ 53.7% (00.0% from 3)
Ross = 1.0fgas @ 31.3% (33.3% from 3)
Gordon = 0.9fgas @ 58.3% (46.2% from 3)

Three of our top 4 closers are absolutely horrendous. For context, here's the numbers for other players from other teams.

When ranked by FGAs, Evan Fournier is the least efficient player in the clutch out of the top 113 players. Tristan Thompson at 113th shooting 1.1fgas @ 27.3% was the only person worse. He's 3rd worst out of the 158 players who took 1fga in the clutch.

So out of the 5 players on the floor for all 30 teams during clutch games, plus 8 reserves, Fournier is the 3rd worst amongst them in the clutch. Yet he ranks 44th amongst them in attempts... This is probably the ugliest statistic on the team this season.

The average FG% for a player in that top 113 was 42.4%, and 30% from 3. Had we replaced Fournier with someone who was even average (let alone as elite as Gordon or Fultz) in efficiency in the clutch, that's an extra 17 points throughout clutch games, and a 2 win improvement on average. If those points had come in bunches then there's a possible 5 extra games won.

A few years ago Fournier was reliable for good perimeter shooting in the 4th. These days, he's a disaster. Simple addition by subtraction saves us here. He was literally the worst option on our team. Had anyone else on the team taken his shots in the clutch, we might have won more games.

This paints a pretty strong case for getting rid of Fournier, even if only to allow Fultz to take more clutch responsibility on. But getting another option who can give 45%+ in the clutch will just make Fultz and Gordon's jobs a bit easier if we actually want a better chance at winning close games.

I see those sorts of marginal improvements being the kinds of targets WeHam will have in mind. I hope they're also across the growing sets of data that encourage us to explore other options on the wing alongside Fultz.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#2 » by pepe1991 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:35 am

"clutch" is ridicilous data. There is zero proof, and goes against any logic, that 1st point has any more value than last. It's just in minds of simple-minded fans and delusional tv hosts like Skip Bayless where "clutch" means anything. Also different players fill different roles and their level of difficulity of shots, and how they are being guarded at the end goes from: not guarded at all to -5 men are looking at Lebron James. Where Lebron disshed 32 assists in clutch, somebody like Joe Harris, marksman, dished 6 whole season, on 49 shots taken. Almost all of them catch&shoot. Because that's his role. Lebron on other hand, has ball, plays off dribble and creats. Different roles give different results. Context is everything.

For example, Lebron James is 35% "clutch" shooter this year. Kyle Kuzma is 77%. This data has no meaning.

Let's not stop there, Jimmy Butler is 27,8% clutch shooter (FG%), Adebayo 54%. Well maybe because one gets layups in clutch and other actually has to create ?

Let's move on.
Kawhi 38,6%. Harrell 70,4% Shamet 67%.


Harden 35,9%... Capela 58%... Westborok 50%... I'm not giving ball to Westbrook at the end, i don't know about you.

Among players who took at least 50 of FGA in clutch by far worst are :Butler, Lebron, Ingram, Lavine, Harden, Doncic and Beal... Best are Randle,Rozier , Weestbrook and Derozan... This is prety much reverse value data. Players with worst percentages all have best gravity, so defense has tunnel vision on them, and that allows their teammates to score way more easly.

This data has history of being currupted and having no value in real game situations. Ben SImmons comes always as best clutch player. Mostly because he shoots on 3s so his FG% stays high, he is passing so his APGs are great, and he gets to FT line a lot ( but for all the wrong reasons, as teams foul him on purpose). For 3 years he is one of the best clutch players. In reality he just currupts data with his limitations and how he is being defended.

For Orlando this data has even less value and reveals nothing new. Magic do not have lead ballhandler when they need somebody to deliver points on set defense. Point guard who is predictable as he only took 2 threes, shooting guard in position he should never be ( instad of catch&shoot), backup SG with tunnel vision ( 32 shots, 2 assists, terrible shooting ), center who can't run possession, small forward who has as many assistsa as turnovers...
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#3 » by basketballRob » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:48 am

Bensational wrote:So, digging through some lineup data just cos... I was looking at our clutch numbers.

Vuc = 1.7fgas @ 37.5% (31.3% from 3)
Founier = 1.6fgas @ 27.7% (22.7% from 3)
Fultz = 1.4fgas @ 53.7% (00.0% from 3)
Ross = 1.0fgas @ 31.3% (33.3% from 3)
Gordon = 0.9fgas @ 58.3% (46.2% from 3)

Three of our top 4 closers are absolutely horrendous. For context, here's the numbers for other players from other teams.

When ranked by FGAs, Evan Fournier is the least efficient player in the clutch out of the top 113 players. Tristan Thompson at 113th shooting 1.1fgas @ 27.3% was the only person worse. He's 3rd worst out of the 158 players who took 1fga in the clutch.

So out of the 5 players on the floor for all 30 teams during clutch games, plus 8 reserves, Fournier is the 3rd worst amongst them in the clutch. Yet he ranks 44th amongst them in attempts... This is probably the ugliest statistic on the team this season.

The average FG% for a player in that top 113 was 42.4%, and 30% from 3. Had we replaced Fournier with someone who was even average (let alone as elite as Gordon or Fultz) in efficiency in the clutch, that's an extra 17 points throughout clutch games, and a 2 win improvement on average. If those points had come in bunches then there's a possible 5 extra games won.

A few years ago Fournier was reliable for good perimeter shooting in the 4th. These days, he's a disaster. Simple addition by subtraction saves us here. He was literally the worst option on our team. Had anyone else on the team taken his shots in the clutch, we might have won more games.

This paints a pretty strong case for getting rid of Fournier, even if only to allow Fultz to take more clutch responsibility on. But getting another option who can give 45%+ in the clutch will just make Fultz and Gordon's jobs a bit easier if we actually want a better chance at winning close games.

I see those sorts of marginal improvements being the kinds of targets WeHam will have in mind. I hope they're also across the growing sets of data that encourage us to explore other options on the wing alongside Fultz.
Fultz had a nice percentage in the clutch. I remember him getting a couple big baskets in the final 2 minutes of the Lakers win. He did that a few times and Clifford said, that might be just who he is.

Vuc was an ongoing joke for a while, how anti clutch he was. Fournier couldn't put the ball on the floor without getting it taken from him.

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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#4 » by drsd » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:52 pm

Last year:
When games get tight and the clock winds down, the Orlando Magic have turned to Evan Fournier. He has proved a solid late-game option.


OMD link



This year:
Evan Fournier is the Orlando Magic’s closer. He struggled in that role this year after staking his reputation on his clutch factor. Wednesday he delivered.

a different OMD link
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#5 » by Max Power » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:12 pm

Can someone find stats on Fournier’s turnover rate in the last half of 4th quarters? To me it seems like that guy has to be the worst in league history. Am I the only one who noticed he’s a turnover machine in the 4th? I’d just assume Ross be the closer if Vuc doesn’t have the ball. He’ll. DJ’s won playoff games for us in the clutch. Fournier shouldn’t even be on the floor.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#6 » by ARandomStranger » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:45 pm

You don't need to look up stats, the eye test alone is enough to prove how much of a scrub Evan Fournier is. There is absolutely no reason to waste time beating around the bush about just how useless of a player he is to this roster, especially a roster that suffers from a really massive lack of shooting in the first place.

This was a man who was brought in and paid, lucratively I might add, to be the big shot maker for this team. This guy is suppose to be your elite closer, he is suppose to be the guy you give the ball to in the fourth, and just let him do his magic. It appalls me to no end that people defend him after his horrendous play in the playoffs.

He was abysmal, he was missing wide open shots, and couldn't hit the broad side of the barn in the moment that he was needed to the most. He was found utterly lacking in the moments that mattered the most and at times people would just leave him undefended because they would know he would miss. People were blowing by him on defense, because not only is he a below average defender, but his defense just seems to get worse as his shot doesn't go in the hoop. He was turning over the ball, looking lethargic, and just absolutely seemed allergic to effort out on the court.

He is a straight up waste of cap space and in my mind, I'm absolutely glad he is expiring because at least he has some value as 17 million expiring cap relief or as a 17 million bartering chip in some kind of trade. The guy has no value on our court as a player or even as a body.

A while ago when he was brought into the fold, the Magic did so because they believed he could be their shot maker. They knew his weaknesses and thought his strengths outweighed them, but in that time the guy has revealed that not only are his weaknesses not outweighed by his strengths, but even his strengths are waning. He looks like an old man playing with his kids in the front yard on a Saturday morning to pass time. He claims he still has it with every shot he makes, but people know he doesn't. People know he is a guy who was great on a bad team, but as this team has progressed, and it has to some extent, that great player on a bad team has turned into a bad player on a middling team.

And that is what the Magic will continue to be with Fournier on roster, middling. If the front office thinks we can get by with streaky shooting on the bench and negligible defense in the starting line up at the two, then clearly they aren't paying attention to the Hawks, the Cavaliers, and the Wizards who will all be better next year and have much more complete looking rosters than ours.

We can live with Ross, in fact I rather like him as a player, and it is clear he wants to be here in Orlando or he wouldn't have signed here last year. But we can't live with Fournier. We need an upgrade at the 2, because otherwise, you might as well get used to picking 6 to 8 in the draft every year for the next few years and missing out on every franchise deciding player.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#7 » by Max Power » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:11 pm

ARandom, here is a virtual handshake. I couldn’t agree more with these sentiments on Fournier. I’ve been saying this for years. He’s been the ultimate me first player on this team. He defends at a bare minimum, he’s got no motor. He takes horrible shots and looks for his own stat line first and foremost. He’s talented, I’m not going to say he can’t be a talented scorer, but this dude is a 6th man on real contending teams. His penchant for 4th quarter turnovers really should have his NBA career flatlining in all honesty. We need a new 2 guard in the worst way. I’m ok with a lesser name or a rookie just to see someone at that spot that’s got some sense of ball security. It’s not lost on me how much better that Magic looked without Fournier this year, with Wes Iwundu of all people playing the 2 spot.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#8 » by Bensational » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:08 pm

pepe1991 wrote:"clutch" is ridicilous data. There is zero proof, and goes against any logic, that 1st point has any more value than last. It's just in minds of simple-minded fans and delusional tv hosts like Skip Bayless where "clutch" means anything. Also different players fill different roles and their level of difficulity of shots, and how they are being guarded at the end goes from: not guarded at all to -5 men are looking at Lebron James. Where Lebron disshed 32 assists in clutch, somebody like Joe Harris, marksman, dished 6 whole season, on 49 shots taken. Almost all of them catch&shoot. Because that's his role. Lebron on other hand, has ball, plays off dribble and creats. Different roles give different results.


Ok, ignore the word "clutch" then, and lets open it up to the entire 4th quarter. 4th quarters aren't made up, are they? And whilst the value of a made basket in quarter 1 and 4 are both the same, the pressure and challenge to make the basket are increased the closer teams get to the end of a game.

Here's the league numbers for 4th quarter, vs our team's numbers above (parameters of minimum 20 games played and 2fgas). Here they are ranked by TS%. If you're looking for Fournier, it's number 345 out of 499. Yet he's ranked 51st in attempts in the 4th quarter.

There's no way to spin it - Evan was horrendous in the 4th. Even worse in the closing minutes when the game was on the line.

Ok, so you'll probably want to point to Jimmy's poor efficiency as some kind of example that... it's a good idea to use inefficient Fournier in the 4th? Well, when Fournier offers an all around impact like Butler or Levert, then he can get some benefit of the doubt on bad shooting. Instead, Fournier has the lowest ast%, the worst ast:to ratio, and is a liability on the boards in late game situations.


pepe1991 wrote:Among players who took at least 50 of FGA in clutch by far worst are :Butler, Lebron, Ingram, Lavine, Harden, Doncic and Beal... Best are Randle,Rozier , Weestbrook and Derozan... This is prety much reverse value data. Players with worst percentages all have best gravity, so defense has tunnel vision on them, and that allows their teammates to score way more easly.


Unfortunately, when factoring in the rest of their numbers you see that the players who know how to win use that gravity to help their team with assists and rebounds. Fournier is not that kind of player. He takes shots. He used to make them, but it's been an annual decline for 4 years going now. I think he's lost his mojo here. Instead of having gravity he's become a gravity well that's sucked the wins out of our hands.

Do we blame the supporting cast? No, not if your job is to go get a bucket (and he certainly plays like it is). Do we ask a SF to become the secondary playmaker behind Fultz just to accomodate Fournier? No, it's time to hand the playmaking keys over to Fultz and someone new, and to do so Fournier is going to have to move on.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#9 » by Def Swami » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:41 pm

Upgrading our starting shooting guard spot would be my main priority this off-season.

As much as I want an overhaul of the roster, I think the priority should be to upgrade our backcourt. It might be one of the worst in the league. Fournier was extremely underwhelming during the season, and especially in the playoffs where all of his warts revealed themselves. He's such a negative on the court when he's not hitting open shots. He's not a good passer and he's a liability on defense. The Magic just getting a solid 3&D player in that spot will make them a better team, and more fun to watch. He's not worth the $17 million price tag.

Priority #1 for me this off-season would be upgrading the starting SG. I don't mind if Fournier was relegated to the bench where he is probably better suited. But, for him to go missing for two consecutive playoffs is quite frustrating. Fultz is going to be here next season, and is still on a rookie deal.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#10 » by ARandomStranger » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:07 pm

I could see Fournier as a sixth man, because really all you need out of a solid sixth man is scoring, but I just don't trust Fournier anymore. I can't for the life of me believe he is all of a sudden going to flip his script to become an even passable scorer when it matters the most. With Ross, sometimes he is cold, but that doesn't stop him from trying to stay in the game by playing defense.

The question is what is available. Wes could be good, he has heart, and plays hard. If he can become a more complete shooter, he could be the perfect 3 and D player for this team and you have to think that for a second round player he is actually quite good.

There is also the draft, there are a few talented scoring guards who could be perfect to hold on to for about twenty or so games and then just flip them into the starting lineup after they have adjusted. I know this draft isn't deep star wise, but I think the draft is pretty good for finding pieces to fix holes on rosters. There are plenty of average scorers with potential to become more at the 2 in this draft.

Then there is trade. The magic have two big things to offer: they have AG and a huge expiring.

In my mind if the Magic want to stay relevant they have to draft, but more so than that they also need to utilize their assets effectively to acquire needed upgrades. Right now Fultz and Vuc are probably our best two players, Fultz is going to get better, and Vuc is proving to be one of the best shooting big men in the NBA.

I think that the best possible option is to load up on shooters to surround Fultz, give the kid some space, and give him the keys by moving Fournier who has been taking away from his play making talent, which he has a ton of, and tossing it away with turnovers or ill advised shots.

If Steve wants to run a half-court offense, you need to have shooters, and a secondary ball handler who isn't an over payed under talented player. And the best way to do that is by moving those two players, and drafting well for this draft. Letting Vuc and Fultz shine will be pay for itself and removing Fournier and getting even a midge of shooting will greatly help our chances of staying relevant as really in the East there is only one big who can guard Vuc and he is only getting older.

Also, with Isaac being gone this year, moving AG is going to hurt a lot, but with Chuma and a hopefully resigned Gary Clark, people laugh, but he is actually a solid 4 especially on a team that lacks shooting, we might be able to still make the playoffs, and not rush Isaac back the following year even. Just a thought I had.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#11 » by Max Power » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:58 pm

It’s probably going to be power forward by committee this year. Aminu, Okeke and Clark have no choice but to hold the fort down, assuming AG is traded like most expect. I still say the Magic moving AG and Fournier to Portland for CJ and a filler front court player makes a lot of sense for both squads if Portland is thinking of shaking things up a bit.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#12 » by Kent » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:04 pm

Max Power wrote:It’s probably going to be power forward by committee this year. Aminu, Okeke and Clark have no choice but to hold the fort down, assuming AG is traded like most expect. I still say the Magic moving AG and Fournier to Portland for CJ and a filler front court player makes a lot of sense for both squads if Portland is thinking of shaking things up a bit.


CJ would be a great upgrade.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#13 » by Xatticus » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:09 pm

I disagree with most of the criticisms in this thread. I think you can pick apart any player if you dig into their statistics. I don't know if he just had a career year, but it's tough to argue with his shooting numbers. I don't place much value in what he does, but this was the best version of him that we've seen. I generally don't find him as loathsome as I did a couple years ago, but I still think he is a selfish player that is more concerned with his own interests than the interests of the team. I think that kind of **** is contagious and I don't want him around our youngsters. I've seen him look off too many teammates over the years. I hate watching him jump in the air, throw the ball out of bounds, and then bark at someone for not being where he threw the ball to. I hate that he is a 'shooting guard' simply because he is too weak to cover anyone his own size. I think our ball movement and defense improve without him. I don't know if he is a net negative, but he isn't worth anything near what he is getting paid. I think you could just plug that spot with a minimum-salary, replacement-level player (Iwundu?) and you won't suffer for it in the slightest. I'm off this ship if we re-sign him, which I'm honestly expecting will happen.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#14 » by Bensational » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:37 pm

I don't see how our team's poor ability to close games and our 2nd most frequently used option in the 4th's poor efficiency can't be related. Clifford said as much last season, that the team struggled to win close games because we don't have a closer, and Fournier has been playing closer for us.

That said, you take his bad 4th quarters out of the mix and that leaves you with 3 super-efficient quarters he can still give you. If we keep him, just make him ride the pine in the 4th.

Regardless, the ball still needs to be in someone else's hands down the stretch. If WeHam are improving the team incrementally, this feels like the next big step to address - closing close games. We aren't doing that behind a poor passing playmaker shooting 27% and only 50% at the stripe.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#15 » by VFX » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:21 am

People don’t get it.

This team isn’t specifically bad because of Evan Fournier. Does that help his argument? No.

This team is bad, and cannot close out games, because there is a significant lack of talent across the board. There is also zero identity on offense and none of the players fit together well at all. The player skill sets and coaching style couldn’t be any more opposite except for Vuc (not a good thing). Also, they willingly choose to give bigger roles to players like Fournier that would probably be a sixth man on a legitimate contending team.

Players are getting paid to perpetuate a first round exit team in Orlando. This is why I don’t understand why moves haven’t been made. “Running it back” makes no sense for that very reason.

The only reason not to tank next season is because there are going to be too many teams wanting to do the same in a very good draft year. Therefore, they should move on from this core. Who cares what happens in the short term. I don’t care about the arguments against it.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#16 » by Bensational » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:01 am

MagicMatic wrote:People don’t get it.

This team isn’t specifically bad because of Evan Fournier. Does that help his argument? No.

This team is bad, and cannot close out games, because there is a significant lack of talent across the board. There is also zero identity on offense and none of the players fit together well at all. The player skill sets and coaching style couldn’t be any more opposite except for Vuc (not a good thing). Also, they willingly choose to give bigger roles to players like Fournier that would probably be a sixth man on a legitimate contending team.

Players are getting paid to perpetuate a first round exit team in Orlando. This is why I don’t understand why moves haven’t been made. “Running it back” makes no sense for that very reason.

The only reason not to tank next season is because there are going to be too many teams wanting to do the same in a very good draft year. Therefore, they should move on from this core. Who cares what happens in the short term. I don’t care about the arguments against it.


So you don't want to see Fultz in a featured role? Or Fultz + Hayes/Haliburton as the new backcourt, even if it means Vuc and Gordon are there to help stabilise the offense where possible?

Because that could be done whilst still being considered "running it back", but doing so with a different face.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#17 » by VFX » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:05 am

Bensational wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:People don’t get it.

This team isn’t specifically bad because of Evan Fournier. Does that help his argument? No.

This team is bad, and cannot close out games, because there is a significant lack of talent across the board. There is also zero identity on offense and none of the players fit together well at all. The player skill sets and coaching style couldn’t be any more opposite except for Vuc (not a good thing). Also, they willingly choose to give bigger roles to players like Fournier that would probably be a sixth man on a legitimate contending team.

Players are getting paid to perpetuate a first round exit team in Orlando. This is why I don’t understand why moves haven’t been made. “Running it back” makes no sense for that very reason.

The only reason not to tank next season is because there are going to be too many teams wanting to do the same in a very good draft year. Therefore, they should move on from this core. Who cares what happens in the short term. I don’t care about the arguments against it.


So you don't want to see Fultz in a featured role? Or Fultz + Hayes/Haliburton as the new backcourt, even if it means Vuc and Gordon are there to help stabilise the offense where possible?

Because that could be done whilst still being considered "running it back", but doing so with a different face.


AG + Isaac + Vuc + Fournier doesn’t work. Any combination of 3 of those players doesn’t work either IMO. The system doesn’t work because of the overlapping skill sets and lack of go-to player. Unless you believe Hayes/Haliburton is that guy 100%, otherwise this is rearranging chairs on the titanic same as the last 3 years. Two of those guys need to be moved or nothing will change.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#18 » by Bensational » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:25 am

MagicMatic wrote:
Bensational wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:People don’t get it.

This team isn’t specifically bad because of Evan Fournier. Does that help his argument? No.

This team is bad, and cannot close out games, because there is a significant lack of talent across the board. There is also zero identity on offense and none of the players fit together well at all. The player skill sets and coaching style couldn’t be any more opposite except for Vuc (not a good thing). Also, they willingly choose to give bigger roles to players like Fournier that would probably be a sixth man on a legitimate contending team.

Players are getting paid to perpetuate a first round exit team in Orlando. This is why I don’t understand why moves haven’t been made. “Running it back” makes no sense for that very reason.

The only reason not to tank next season is because there are going to be too many teams wanting to do the same in a very good draft year. Therefore, they should move on from this core. Who cares what happens in the short term. I don’t care about the arguments against it.


So you don't want to see Fultz in a featured role? Or Fultz + Hayes/Haliburton as the new backcourt, even if it means Vuc and Gordon are there to help stabilise the offense where possible?

Because that could be done whilst still being considered "running it back", but doing so with a different face.


AG + Isaac + Vuc + Fournier doesn’t work. Any combination of 3 of those players doesn’t work either IMO. The system doesn’t work because of the overlapping skill sets and lack of go-to player. Unless you believe Hayes/Haliburton is that guy 100%, otherwise this is rearranging chairs on the titanic same as the last 3 years. Two of those guys need to be moved or nothing will change.


It works, it's just limited because none have the ceiling to carry this team beyond the tough teams. Changing the dynamic to be a Fultz/(new SG) lead offense changes the team entirely even if it has 2-3 recurring pieces. But Isaac won't be there so by default we could have 2 new faces to the starting offense and a different version of Fultz. When Isaac returns and proves he can stick around then we re-evaluate.

If you want to insist of blow-it-up or bust then you're shutting out the possibility for meaningful change just because it keeps a couple of players.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#19 » by VFX » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:48 am

Bensational wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
Bensational wrote:
So you don't want to see Fultz in a featured role? Or Fultz + Hayes/Haliburton as the new backcourt, even if it means Vuc and Gordon are there to help stabilise the offense where possible?

Because that could be done whilst still being considered "running it back", but doing so with a different face.


AG + Isaac + Vuc + Fournier doesn’t work. Any combination of 3 of those players doesn’t work either IMO. The system doesn’t work because of the overlapping skill sets and lack of go-to player. Unless you believe Hayes/Haliburton is that guy 100%, otherwise this is rearranging chairs on the titanic same as the last 3 years. Two of those guys need to be moved or nothing will change.


It works, it's just limited because none have the ceiling to carry this team beyond the tough teams. Changing the dynamic to be a Fultz/(new SG) lead offense changes the team entirely even if it has 2-3 recurring pieces. But Isaac won't be there so by default we could have 2 new faces to the starting offense and a different version of Fultz. When Isaac returns and proves he can stick around then we re-evaluate.

If you want to insist of blow-it-up or bust then you're shutting out the possibility for meaningful change just because it keeps a couple of players.


I’m not ruling out the possibility of a scenario where Isaac/AG/ and Fultz OR Vuc/Isaac/ Fultz are still serving as this teams core. I think what it ultimately comes down to are two things -

1- AG and Vuc do not work together. I’m done arguing why. I’ve been saying it for years. If people need a refresher, they can go back a few hundred pages and figure it out.

2- IF we keep AG and Isaac together they need to acquire an elite level scorer. Easier said than done obviously, but if they can’t find that player sooner than later they need to move AG. Again, not going to rehash this argument because I feel like this is obvious at this point.

Fournier should be moved regardless. If not because of his salary, then because he isn’t providing what we would desperately need in the aforementioned rotational scenario.

Moving 2 players isn’t “blowing it up” per se. It might feel that way to certain posters that have invested all of their fandom into a specific player. I don’t think there is a downside at this point.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.... the nba is about talent. If you do not have otherworldly talent, then you must have an identity with exceptional team cohesion. Orlando currently has neither of those things. “Running it back” is not a good option in a year without Isaac.
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Re: If WeHam run it back - this may be why... 

Post#20 » by Bensational » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:28 am

MagicMatic wrote:
Bensational wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
AG + Isaac + Vuc + Fournier doesn’t work. Any combination of 3 of those players doesn’t work either IMO. The system doesn’t work because of the overlapping skill sets and lack of go-to player. Unless you believe Hayes/Haliburton is that guy 100%, otherwise this is rearranging chairs on the titanic same as the last 3 years. Two of those guys need to be moved or nothing will change.


It works, it's just limited because none have the ceiling to carry this team beyond the tough teams. Changing the dynamic to be a Fultz/(new SG) lead offense changes the team entirely even if it has 2-3 recurring pieces. But Isaac won't be there so by default we could have 2 new faces to the starting offense and a different version of Fultz. When Isaac returns and proves he can stick around then we re-evaluate.

If you want to insist of blow-it-up or bust then you're shutting out the possibility for meaningful change just because it keeps a couple of players.


I’m not ruling out the possibility of a scenario where Isaac/AG/ and Fultz OR Vuc/Isaac/ Fultz are still serving as this teams core. I think what it ultimately comes down to are two things -

1- AG and Vuc do not work together. I’m done arguing why. I’ve been saying it for years. If people need a refresher, they can go back a few hundred pages and figure it out.

2- IF we keep AG and Isaac together they need to acquire an elite level scorer. Easier said than done obviously, but if they can’t find that player sooner than later they need to move AG. Again, not going to rehash this argument because I feel like this is obvious at this point.

Fournier should be moved regardless. If not because of his salary, then because he isn’t providing what we would desperately need in the aforementioned rotational scenario.

Moving 2 players isn’t “blowing it up” per se. It might feel that way to certain posters that have invested all of their fandom into a specific player. I don’t think there is a downside at this point.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.... the nba is about talent. If you do not have otherworldly talent, then you must have an identity with exceptional team cohesion. Orlando currently has neither of those things. “Running it back” is not a good option in a year without Isaac.


You're missing out on a few pretty major things here:

1) Vuc and Gordon do work. They were a +1.1 Netrtg, which was our only high volume 2 man lineup. Vuc + Isaac were actually a negative, and Gordon + Isaac were worse than that. So you can say "I'm done arguing why", but the numbers don't support whatever it is you have argued before.

2) You seem to be making the mistake of assuming Isaac will return and is a certain core piece for the future. I'd wait until he steps foot on a court again in another year before even considering that. Isaac is a complete non-factor at this point, and thinking otherwise could prove to be a franchise crippling outlook.

So now that we know Vuc and Gordon do work together, what's the problem with them supporting a new perimeter of Okeke/Rookie/Fultz? You don't think Fultz and co deserve a chance to prove whether or not they can come close to franchise leading levels?

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