zaymon wrote:MagicMatic wrote:zaymon wrote:
I know guys what you mean, but you oversimplify it to a point its painful to me. There is a balance between having bad team and high draft pick. The positive outcome changes from situation to situation and from year to year. You can have number 1 pick in generational draft like Pelicans with Davis, but if you strip your team of talent too much you wont get out of the hole.
Best outcomes are good teams lucking into top players in draft by
1. Injuries
2. Lottery luck
3. Trades ( for top picks)
4. Draft steals
If you aquire top pick from tanking you almost always lost before you even started. Building a team through draft is not a process of few years. You can build a veteran contender in one offseason, but you cant do it by draft. Even GSW needed 6 years with Curry to win championship.
Maybe the most important part is knowing your market and potential free agents. We are known as family spot. We should target older players with families who are looking for stabilization ( of course not always). You cant build a family atmosphere when you tear your team every two years. We wont retain players that way. In current era players can work their way out of the team even when they are bound by contract.
The point is that the vets on this team are not the future of this franchise. The combination of AG/Fournier/Vuc has legitimately proven not to work 7 years running. Therefore, there is no reason to keep rolling them out together assuming anything will change. We had the healthiest season ever two years ago and we still hit a ceiling.
Maybe people forgot that the Dwight era identity was built solely around our #1 pick, and vets were later added. The chances of “landing” a go-to cornerstone superstar talent, while fielding a roster picking 10-15, are slimmer compared to picking top 5.
No, you can’t determine factors for injuries, trades, and steals. However, you also don’t roll out the same mediocre offense 7 years running expecting wildly different results earning anything other than a #8+ pick. I don’t understand the fascination with keeping these players, while remaining a fringe playoff team, to the detriment of the future pick odds.
Can you really say with a straight face that the 2017-2018 season was more important as a learning experience than landing Luka Doncic? The answer is no. Orlando could have traded all of their mediocre pieces if you knew Doncic was a reality. That’s one example only.
You’re not being realistic with how team building works with your “family environment” example. Milwaukee doesn’t become a perennial contender without drafting Giannis. They don’t draw talent to that city without him. They aren’t a free agent destination without him. They retain their talent if they keep him. That’s why they are doing everything possible to appease him. Orlando is no different. Players want to win.
Orlando MUST draft that level of talent to be a desirable destination. It’s not that complicated.
I think you are too obsessed with one team building option. I am not saying your strategy wont work, becouse it did in the past, but there is more than one viable team building strategy nowadays. Full rebuild works more often when you have star players to trade. Last time we had McGrady, than Howard, Weltman had no one with value. 76ers process model is mostly destroyed by changed lottery odds.
I agree that our future is not about AG, Fournier and Vucevic. I dont think you will find one person here who believes that. There is still a question though how long they will remain useful and when is the perfect time to flip them. All 3 of them present combination of size and skill.
You want to tank, but for the last 2 years we were able to aquire two lottery talent players who Weltman targeted. Why tank if you can pick the players you wanted in the middle of the first round ? There are teams build around mid first round talent ( Heat, Warriors, Bucks, Nuggets, Jazz).
I dont expect Fournier/Vucevic offense to lead us much longer. In his latest interview asked about Fultz/Anthony combination Clifford said that he eventually envisions us playing with two good pick and roll players similar to Raptors.
Look its not that we have no young talent. I know you are low on them, but maybe it would be wise to give them some time to show what they are capable of ? Its not like we gave Fultz, Anthony and Okeke any chance to succed. Observing Weltman decisions it seems like they think we hit on some rookies, or maybe they just decided we will get more for Gordon and Fournier at the trade deadline.
Too obsessed? I’m being realistic with the available options.
You have to have assets to be able to make trades. Orlando is in a situation where they don’t have a star level player and can’t trade for one going into their prime.
So what’s the best option? The draft. You get 7-8 years of a guy under contract to build a legitimate team. Many teams are doing this now. New Orleans, Boston, Dallas, Memphis, Denver, Atlanta , etc. They land their cornerstone(s) and add from there. Teams like Miami, Brooklyn, LAClippers, have stashed assets and are desirable locations for specific circumstantial situations. Whether or not they pay off is another topic.
Orlando is the former and not the later example. We couldn’t trade or draw these players in free agency. If you believe otherwise, I have a timeshare to sell you in aspen.
What do you mean “why tank if we got middle of the round players?” We drafted Bamba and not Young or Doncic. We drafted Okeke and not Herro, Reddish, or Morant. Recently we drafted Anthony over Killian Hayes and Avdija. I don’t trust our FO’s drafting ability. Therefore, I’d rather they “idiot proof” their picks.
Get the point? We rolled out Vuc/Fournier/and AG wanting “playoffs” at the expense of landing a real star. Not all of those players are cornerstones, but you put yourself in the situation to make it a possibility. You don’t land that cornerstone picking behind teams that have rebuilt in less time. We’ve done it for years and it’s just been wasting time IMO. You wouldn’t claim the last 4 years were building to anything substantial because we are worse off than we were 2 years ago. Not only that, the basketball isn’t even worth watching as a consolation.
I’m not “low” on the talent. I’m judging them through the lens in which they were acquired. Picks #15, #16 and a project big at #6 in a 5 player draft. If they prove to be decent players, great! There is no go-to guy that will attract talent on this roster. These are likely role players - solid starters at best.
I’m not even sure what your argument is anymore. Are you saying that drafting at the top isn’t the best way of landing a cornerstone? Are you saying Orlando lands their next up and coming all star in free agency, in a trade, or in the middle of the draft after 8-10 teams make their selections? If so, history and data says you’re wrong in most cases.
