Vuc - “I Love Orlando & I’m Happy”

[Last Guardian]

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Would Orlando be even worse without Vučević? The answer must be a resounding YES.


Orlando has the third worst point differential of all teams this season at -6.6. Vučević by far has the most minutes played on the Magic this season at 1254 total minutes is more than 200 more minutes than player #2: Ross at 1032. Of course the player with the most minutes played on the 3rd worst points differential team will have a horrible plus/minus.

The real question in this Plus/Minus is comparing the point differential of Orlando for when Vučević is on the court vs. when he is off of it, scaled to a metric (usually 36 minutes. As Vučević is playing 34 minutes per game and has played in all 36 games, this means that there is only 12 minutes per game he has not been on the court; thus the need for scaling.)

Looking at a stat that is wins over replacement, Vučević is currently with a VORP that is 9th highest in the NBA at 2.5. I guess one way of looking at that is that Vučević has single handedly kept the Magic from a currently expected 10-26 record.

EDIT: more on the -236 plus/minus. As a differential itself this plus/minus should be stated per minutes. So Vučević is at -236/33.9 = -6.96 per. I winder how other players rank in plus/minus divided by minutes played per game.

..

I applaud your newfound interest in statistics, but you are well behind the curve. Vucevic has been dead last in raw plus/minus for most of the year, but I don't cite that for the reasons you've mentioned. This is why we use net rating. It is essentially your plus/minus per 100 possessions.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=202696&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Vucevic has a net rating of -8.8. That's awful regardless of the circumstances. Orlando has a -0.6 net rating when Vucevic has been on the bench. If you dig into the numbers at all, you can't write this off to playing next to **** teammates (more on this later...). During our 6-2 start to the season, we were -18 while Vucevic was on the floor and +68 when he was on the bench. Basically, we've gotten plowed whenever he has been on the floor this year. This is because we have been dreadful at the offensive end regardless of whether or not Vucevic has been on the floor, but we have been a very good defensive team when he hasn't.

A quick primer on stats: These "metrics" that people cite don't actually mean a whole hell of a lot. I put "metrics" in quotations because a real metric has to have validity, which is to say that you need to have some verifiable means of proving that you are measuring what you are claiming to measure. Things like PER, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WARP, and RPM don't actually do this. They are just formulae with arbitrary weights assigned to various statistics to produce a list that reflects public perception for the purposes of entertainment. That's it. Some give some weight to plus/minus, but none significantly so. RAPM is different. It's an adjusted plus/minus that addresses the shortcomings you cited and then some. You are not going to like what you see though because it doesn't give a **** how many points per game you score.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRDbpET9PUorhyjaw4DsPLszr8xc-tes0Ae2rp3Wwr2vxPvjUoXeY0lUNQq_mq8YgOKSWYz5Xz43fCE/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

Would Orlando be worse this year without Vucevic? Probably not. I mean... aside from the fact that we have literally been much better this year when he has been on the bench, you just can't get much worse than -8.8 per 100 possessions. In most seasons, that's good enough for worst in the league. It would really depend on the context though. If you just subtracted him from the roster, then I don't really see any reason to believe that we'd be better, but if he were traded for Vassell and Poeltl, for example, I suspect that we would immediately improve. That's a lot of quality minutes you'd be getting in return. I remember having the same sort of discussions when McGrady was leading the team to 21 wins. Many were convinced that he was the only reason that roster won any games, but the team improved by 15 wins the year after he was traded away. Piling up stats doesn't actually mean you are any good.

Agreed with all of that. But do you think playing with Isaac (and Okeke if he continues his progress) could mitigate the defensive problems? What do the stats say when Vuc has Isaac on the floor with him? I'd be curious.

[Skybox]

Darryl Morey article...interesting/maybe relevant to Vuc, maybe not

Embiid is the leading candidate to win MVP coming out of the All-Star break, largely by taking fewer threes than ever, ranking third in the league mid-range jumpers, leading the league in post-ups and having his most efficient season to date.

What's old is new, it's cyclical...bigs aren't dead, they've just been evolving a bit.

[Xatticus]

Would Orlando be even worse without Vučević? The answer must be a resounding YES.


Orlando has the third worst point differential of all teams this season at -6.6. Vučević by far has the most minutes played on the Magic this season at 1254 total minutes is more than 200 more minutes than player #2: Ross at 1032. Of course the player with the most minutes played on the 3rd worst points differential team will have a horrible plus/minus.

The real question in this Plus/Minus is comparing the point differential of Orlando for when Vučević is on the court vs. when he is off of it, scaled to a metric (usually 36 minutes. As Vučević is playing 34 minutes per game and has played in all 36 games, this means that there is only 12 minutes per game he has not been on the court; thus the need for scaling.)

Looking at a stat that is wins over replacement, Vučević is currently with a VORP that is 9th highest in the NBA at 2.5. I guess one way of looking at that is that Vučević has single handedly kept the Magic from a currently expected 10-26 record.

EDIT: more on the -236 plus/minus. As a differential itself this plus/minus should be stated per minutes. So Vučević is at -236/33.9 = -6.96 per. I winder how other players rank in plus/minus divided by minutes played per game.

..

I applaud your newfound interest in statistics, but you are well behind the curve. Vucevic has been dead last in raw plus/minus for most of the year, but I don't cite that for the reasons you've mentioned. This is why we use net rating. It is essentially your plus/minus per 100 possessions.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=202696&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Vucevic has a net rating of -8.8. That's awful regardless of the circumstances. Orlando has a -0.6 net rating when Vucevic has been on the bench. If you dig into the numbers at all, you can't write this off to playing next to **** teammates (more on this later...). During our 6-2 start to the season, we were -18 while Vucevic was on the floor and +68 when he was on the bench. Basically, we've gotten plowed whenever he has been on the floor this year. This is because we have been dreadful at the offensive end regardless of whether or not Vucevic has been on the floor, but we have been a very good defensive team when he hasn't.

A quick primer on stats: These "metrics" that people cite don't actually mean a whole hell of a lot. I put "metrics" in quotations because a real metric has to have validity, which is to say that you need to have some verifiable means of proving that you are measuring what you are claiming to measure. Things like PER, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WARP, and RPM don't actually do this. They are just formulae with arbitrary weights assigned to various statistics to produce a list that reflects public perception for the purposes of entertainment. That's it. Some give some weight to plus/minus, but none significantly so. RAPM is different. It's an adjusted plus/minus that addresses the shortcomings you cited and then some. You are not going to like what you see though because it doesn't give a **** how many points per game you score.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRDbpET9PUorhyjaw4DsPLszr8xc-tes0Ae2rp3Wwr2vxPvjUoXeY0lUNQq_mq8YgOKSWYz5Xz43fCE/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

Would Orlando be worse this year without Vucevic? Probably not. I mean... aside from the fact that we have literally been much better this year when he has been on the bench, you just can't get much worse than -8.8 per 100 possessions. In most seasons, that's good enough for worst in the league. It would really depend on the context though. If you just subtracted him from the roster, then I don't really see any reason to believe that we'd be better, but if he were traded for Vassell and Poeltl, for example, I suspect that we would immediately improve. That's a lot of quality minutes you'd be getting in return. I remember having the same sort of discussions when McGrady was leading the team to 21 wins. Many were convinced that he was the only reason that roster won any games, but the team improved by 15 wins the year after he was traded away. Piling up stats doesn't actually mean you are any good.

Agreed with all of that. But do you think playing with Isaac (and Okeke if he continues his progress) could mitigate the defensive problems? What do the stats say when Vuc has Isaac on the floor with him? I'd be curious.

Sure. We've seen that in the past. I think you need someone like Isaac on the floor if you are going to rely on a center that doesn't protect the rim. We managed to cobble together a top-10 defense a couple years ago and that was with a bench that was awful for most of the year. We almost finished top 10 last year as well, but our defense was sinking fast after Isaac went down. The bigger issue has always been our offense though and that won't solve our offensive woes. You can only go so far if you are bottom third in offensive efficiency.

[GelbeWand09]

Darryl Morey article...interesting/maybe relevant to Vuc, maybe not

Embiid is the leading candidate to win MVP coming out of the All-Star break, largely by taking fewer threes than ever, ranking third in the league mid-range jumpers, leading the league in post-ups and having his most efficient season to date.

What's old is new, it's cyclical...bigs aren't dead, they've just been evolving a bit.

Yea now we just need a elite 2 way Center like Embiid, with a .650TS% ( ) & a .634 FTr ( ), because i dont know what this has to do with us

[Xatticus]

So raw plus minus over years:

2016-17 starter with best plus minus- Nikola Vučević
2017-18- starter with best plus minus- Nikola Vučević
2018-19 - team's best plus minus player- Nikola Vučević + 218
2019-20 - team's second best ( behind DJ ) + 52- Nikola Vučević

As far as pretending that net rating is holy grail of "analytics" , it's just desparate attemp from biased poster to hold onto his agenda, where any other anti Vuc data failed him. But i won't let this nonsense slip without b*** slapping nonsense.
But everybody with common sense, healthy logic can see:
2019-20 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander net rating +3,5
2020-21 improved Shai Gilgeous-Alexander net rating -5,6

2018-199 Steven Adams net rating on contdener +6,7
2019-20 Steven Adams net rating on playoff team +4,4
2020-21 Steven Adams net rating on bad team - 0,6

2020-21 Steph Curry net rating +1,4
2019-20 Steph Curry net rating -15,3
2018-19 Steph Curry net rating +13,7

By just looking at Steph Curry's net rating, that went from one of greatest in history ,to one of worst in nba, to being painfully average, by always being same- one of best PG ever, it's not hard to see how another myth of certain poster is busted. Net rating, like any other data, struggles to extract "impact" from team sucess or failure. And that's fine. That's why nobody really pays attention to nba.com nor bb reference stats if team is complete and utter failure. Numbers will be ugly across the board.


Michael Carter Williams, prior turning Magic defense around in 2018-19 had breef stint with Houston, where his net rating was epic -20,7.
Michael Carter Williams, packed his bags and moved to Orlando,where , in matter of seconds, his net rating went to one of best in nba, +14,00
Now go ahead and keep making fool of yourself talking about Vuc net rating, pretending it has nothing to do with situation, 4 missing starters, incompetent bench and ofc never mention that Ross, Cole Anthony, Fultz , Bamba, Gordon ,Birch and Evan, all have negative net rating. Matter of fact James Ennis and MCW are actually ONLY positive ones. But as usual, just cherrypick and make huge post talking around extracted,cherrypicked claim, without ever adding any context

Firstly, net rating isn't an all-encompassing metric. I've never claimed that it is. I've never claimed it is a "holy grail of analytics". All it tells you is how to team is performing when said player is on the floor. You need some context, which has been provided, but which you repeatedly ignore.

If a great player is surrounded by terrible players, then it should be rather easy to demonstrate that the team is actually better when said player is on the floor. For example, you keep citing the year LeBron missed the playoffs with the Lakers. That Lakers team was not very good. They had a -1.6 net rating. Not great. They had a +2.0 net rating when LeBron was on the floor though. They were -5.6 when he was off the floor. That's a net differential of +7.6. They were clearly a better team when he was out there. Last year he had a net differential of +10.4. This year he has a net differential of +14.2. It's really obvious that he makes his teams better. This is basically universally true of all really good players. It's what makes them really good, because the goal is to win.

SGA net differential: -1.0
Adams net differential: +2.4
Vucevic net differential: -6.0

And just to be clear, Vucevic isn't the only reason this team sucks (I've never stated that he is), but he is certainly doing his share of damage.

Secondly, you've cited a 5-game sample and a 16-game sample to refute the validity of net rating? ...and you accused me of cherry-picking data?

In that five-game sample, the Warriors were -43 when Curry was on the floor. He shot .245 from three on almost 10 attempts per game. He posted career lows in eFG% and TS%. It is the only season in his career when he was below league average in any of these categories. He was objectively awful in that 5-game sample. Why would you expect a statistic to say that he was good? When a player is playing poorly, any statistic that has merit should reflect that they are playing poorly. Again, it doesn't really say that, of course. It says the team was playing like **** when he was on the floor, but there is an implication there. and once again, it's a 5-game sample. Steph Curry is certainly capable of playing like ****. What makes him special, is that he is really good more often than he isn't.

And for MCW... it's a 16-game sample. It was 145 minutes. And if you don't think anyone pays any mind to net rating, why do you suppose he got released? He was so awful with Houston that they straight cut him. He was out of the NBA when Orlando picked him up. That doesn't mean that he hasn't been very good with Orlando. I'm not sure why this confounds you? there is no reason why both can't be true.

You are having a conversation with yourself here. When I say something, you play stupid and twist **** up in your head and then contrive an argument that scarcely resembles what the other person actually said. For example, anyone that doesn't believe that building around Vucevic is viable is obviously a Bamba lover. It's absurd. You repeatedly misattribute arguments to me and others and then resort to ad hominem attacks.

I've praised Vucevic's play in 2018-19. I've stated that we have sufficient data to state that Vucevic > Gordon > Fournier. I've stated that the $12M Vucevic was earning in 2018-19 was a bargain. That can all be true without precluding the possibility that he is now overpaid, overutilized, and a significant reason as to why this year's team is terrible.

Lastly, you keep labeling everyone you disagree with as biased. Do you actually know what bias is? Are you insinuating that anyone that doesn't agree with you has an anti-Euro bias? It's rather ironic considering that Magicstarswipe just pointed out that the very argument that makes you believe I am bigoted is one that you have explicitly stated in the past. Now that you have changed your mind on the subject, things are totally different? Or were you biased back when you said it? Have you never considered that we project our own reasoning to others? Have you never considered that the bigotry that you perceive in others is actually a reflection of your own thinking? You are, after all, the only person on this forum that I'm aware of that has had a Mel Gibson moment. I may suspect others of bigotry when they label someone lazy due to body language or lacking in professionalism because of the way they dress or wear their hair, but there is only one person on this forum that I can think of that has gone on an anti-African/nationalistic tirade.

[Xatticus]

Darryl Morey article...interesting/maybe relevant to Vuc, maybe not

Embiid is the leading candidate to win MVP coming out of the All-Star break, largely by taking fewer threes than ever, ranking third in the league mid-range jumpers, leading the league in post-ups and having his most efficient season to date.

What's old is new, it's cyclical...bigs aren't dead, they've just been evolving a bit.

Embiid is just an exception. The post game has largely been phased out because of the 3-point shot. There was a time when bigs posting up was a staple for almost every team in the league, but offensive efficiency has just passed it by. There are only a handful guys in the whole of the NBA that actually provide value from the post anymore and Embiid is one of them. Add to that that he is a great defender. It's odd to say, but he is a unicorn in the modern NBA.

[Skybox]

Darryl Morey article...interesting/maybe relevant to Vuc, maybe not

Embiid is the leading candidate to win MVP coming out of the All-Star break, largely by taking fewer threes than ever, ranking third in the league mid-range jumpers, leading the league in post-ups and having his most efficient season to date.

What's old is new, it's cyclical...bigs aren't dead, they've just been evolving a bit.

Embiid is just an exception. The post game has largely been phased out because of the 3-point shot. There was a time when bigs posting up was a staple for almost every team in the league, but offensive efficiency has just passed it by. There are only a handful guys in the whole of the NBA that actually provide value from the post anymore and Embiid is one of them. Add to that that he is a great defender. It's odd to say, but he is a unicorn in the modern NBA.

Pretty much everybody great is an exception. Isaac is certainly a unique player with a defensive skillset that allows him to rim protect and disrupt perimeter passing. There's always exceptions. But if somebody is good to elite at something- a good coach can work with that.

[zaymon]

Stating Vucevic is not making us better is bold to say the least. Showing numbers but not trying to interpret them is usually recipe for disaster. Thats how you create flat earth and anti- vaxxing movement ideas. Same level of argument.

1. Comparing Vucevic to top 2 all time great player to prove that he is not good doesnt seem like good idea. Lebron still had a lot more starter quality players around him in 18/19 than Vucevic now.

2. Centers are a lot more dependant on team play than lead ball handler

3. When you actually watch us play you can observe similar scenario almost every game- we play through Vucevic and we outscore the opponets at the beginning, than they double and triple team Nicola and we have no anwser and its not like Vucevic doesnt make right pass out of double teams almost every time.

4. Another thing that kills us is ball security, when opponents start to press us we turnover the ball like crazy. Vucevic has 1.7 TO which at his usage is elite.

5. RAPM based on 1 season is not worth much, but based on 38 games is wortless. Trying to make a case based on it is laughable.

[pepe1991]

There is good reason why Suns are so great this year, they ulitized Monty Williams " point 5 " philoshopy witch literally means that each and every player in role has to be able to put ball on the floor a little bit,shoot a little bit and make right decision on the fly.

So he very much over time is limiting Ayton and plays Šarić at 5 more because he gives him just that. Passing, decision making and shooting, even at expense of some defense.
As a result, Ayton raptor is- 0,5, Šarić raptor is +6,8.
Ayton's net rating is +4,1, Šarić net rating is +20.

Magic have luxury where it's not needed to replace center with PF just to have more passing and shooting since Vuc is elite at both. What Magic need to do is adress their PG,SG and SF positions asap as their current roster only has fine SG (but free agent) and bunch of players woh are projected to be bench players at PG and SF.

Gordon- Isaac decision should have been maken at least year and half ago.

Btw i find it hilarious how some posters were raving about Evan advanced stats last year when they were bad ,but nobody will point out how team is not funcional without him this year, where he has some of best analytic stats this year. One would though- complete and utter bias and agenda?
If you don't think Vuc is great basketball player it's fine, it's your opinion, but you simply don't know much about basketball. And that's also fine. Being average joe is fine. Just don't pretend you are not one.

[VDT]

As an outsider (not a Magic fan) i am really surprised that there are people still not wanting to blow this thing up.

The Magic are going nowhere, they are actually in the worst possible position. Barely making the playoffs in a very weak East in the previous years, meaning that they get no high upside picks and that they are playoff fodder. This year they are even worse, partly due to the injuries and partly because some teams in the East have improved.

The FO is destroying the team's future. They are just trying to keep their jobs by barely making the playoffs, since they know that any rebuild at this point will get them probably fired. Vucevic, the top guy on the team, doesnt care about winning and prefers to stay on a team where he can pretend to be the first option instead of playing the Brook Lopez role on a better team. I am not blaming him, especially since it might help him get more money as a free agent. Nevertheless, he is another guy whose interests dont align with the long term interests of the team.

In the end the only realistic path to build a competitive team goes through the draft and i dont see how anyone could argue otherwise. The team doesnt have a franchise guy, doesnt have the assets to trade for one and i really doubt they could get one as a free agent. Vucevic (and the other veterans) needs to get traded not because of the assets he will bring (i dont think teams really value his archetype) but because it might mean getting a top 3 pick for a few years instead of a top 10-15 pick, which is what might actually move the needle for this team. Otherwise, the team is wasting years just so that the FO keep their jobs and Vucevic gets some all star appearances and more money in his bank account.

[SOUL]

I think the issue is people take requests of trading Vuc as a slight to Vuc instead of wondering if we can get a really good package/doing what's best for the team. Before his all-star years, we wanted to move on from Vuc because his stats were dropping and he wasn't an efficient player. He's still not the most efficient player but he shoots threes now and obviously can score anywhere on the floor, can pass as good as any big can, etc, easily our best player and worthy of his all-star selection.

HOWEVER...

He's just not the easiest player to build around. We need defensive players (like Isaac) to mask some rim protection issues and make people scared of driving, and at the same time we have yet to ever get a guy on offense that can reliably get to the line and be a first option sort of "I'm getting a bucket guy" (Vuc this season has been the closest sans free throws), but still, it's mostly trailing threes for Vuc and his automatic mid-range. Hell, we don't even know if Vuc will be as effective as a player if someone is taking that alpha scoring role away from him which is why a lot of these more potent teams this year have defensive minded centers (and if not defensive, just less usage sort of guys) besides Jokic and Embiid.

This does not mean it's Vuc's fault, just like it wasn't Kevin Love's fault or Chris Bosh's fault when they didn't win where they played, but they did have to join LeBron James and hall of fame players to win titles and get far. So it's a bit of a mix of us doing nothing to add enough offensive talent to help Vuc and also Vuc just not really having the easiest skillset to compliment as a main piece.

So that leaves us in a pickle because that piece usually is not coming in free agency/we have to get lucky drafting that guy, Then others request trading other players, sure, but we're also not getting that sort of player from trading Fournier or AG. Yeah, maybe if we add Isaac and this year's pick we can get an intriguing return but that's risking a lot. So obviously people are going to look at just replacing the main guy because that person can bring considerable value.

I know some people want to trade Vuc for different reasons, but labeling it all as "blaming him" is such a silly way to look at it. It's like if Dwight didn't take us far in the finals or past the first round in his tenure, we'd say it's hard to build around a guy that can't create his own shot and stretch the floor, which is completely fair criticism.

[GelbeWand09]

Btw i find it hilarious how some posters were raving about Evan advanced stats last year when they were bad ,but nobody will point out how team is not funcional without him this year, where he has some of best analytic stats this year. One would though- complete and utter bias and agenda?

Not that i feel that i am one of them, because i cant rembember talking much about Evan, other than i want him go lol But i dont understand this part at all & is the typical pepe.

1st. His off. advanced stats are almost identical to last year or even slightly worse. His defense is worse than ever. The loudest people raving about his advanced stats last year, were the 60%TS people, who ignored every other stats & metric
Evan is the same player he was before. A nice player in theory asked to do much more than he is capable off. A player that helps you win in a limited role on offense, as a shooter/spacer & a guy who can attack closeouts & at best doesnt play more than 30 mpg because of his defense. In this role on a good team, he is a +player, with good value.

In his role on our team, he just doesnt move the needle (on a at least semi healthy team ) & is to expensive to resign.
The things he is good at & the things he is bad at, cancel each other out. 60%TS nice, being one of the 30 worst defenders in the leaque by most metrics this year, bad. I've made a post with all the stats not long a go.

In the end, he is like Gordon a slightly above average starter on a bad team & a good 6th man on a good team

Back to your advanced stats. They show exactly that:
144th Raptor WAR
126th Total Raptor
168th RAPM
98 RPM (33rd best SG)
BPM he wasnt qualified yet but he would be around 75-80 (0.5 like Gordon)

''where he has some of best analytic stats this year'' & ''team is not funcional without him this year'' So you mean the team is better with him than with Bacon, Mane, Anthony, Aminu, Clark, Randle, Birch, Bamba, MCW (in his current role)? Because thats our rotation other than Vuc & Ross (who missed a lotta games too). Wow give him a 100 Mio contract for the next 4 years.
Thats like someone makes a thread about Fultz impact after our start & our downfall (You would be the first to rant about it )

[SOUL]

''where he has some of best analytic stats this year'' & ''team is not funcional without him this year'' So you mean the team is better with him than with Bacon, Mane, Anthony, Aminu, Clark, Randle, Birch, Bamba, MCW (in his current role)? Because thats our rotation other than Vuc & Ross (who missed a lotta games too). Wow give him a 100 Mio contract for the next 4 years.
Thats like someone makes a thread about Fultz impact after our start & our downfall (You would be the first to rant about it )

+1. We can't overrate players because they're easily better than replacement level/potential unsigned free agents. Him/AG/Ross are useful players in the right situations and will excel in specific roles on other teams.

Fournier on this team isn't a good enough 2nd option scorer or ball handler but can have big scoring games. AG isn't an efficient player or a go-to scorer at all, but is sort of becoming a do-it-all guy with some scoring/rebs/assists. Ross can single handedly win and lose us games with his shooting but he is probably playing the most ideal role out of everybody on the team.

The issue all 3 of them have is a bad one though--their vision throughout the game really sucks at times. Fournier turns his back on half the court and hesitates, can't dribble when double teamed or pressured, makes disheartening turnovers. AG will just straight line-drive charge into people and go Kobe shot-selection mode randomly, and Ross will pull up against 3 players despite having people open driving to the rim or open in the corner.

[Skybox]

I think the issue is people take requests of trading Vuc as a slight to Vuc instead of wondering if we can get a really good package/doing what's best for the team. Before his all-star years, we wanted to move on from Vuc because his stats were dropping and he wasn't an efficient player. He's still not the most efficient player but he shoots threes now and obviously can score anywhere on the floor, can pass as good as any big can, etc, easily our best player and worthy of his all-star selection.

HOWEVER...

He's just not the easiest player to build around. We need defensive players (like Isaac) to mask some rim protection issues and make people scared of driving, and at the same time we have yet to ever get a guy on offense that can reliably get to the line and be a first option sort of "I'm getting a bucket guy" (Vuc this season has been the closest sans free throws), but still, it's mostly trailing threes for Vuc and his automatic mid-range. Hell, we don't even know if Vuc will be as effective as a player if someone is taking that alpha scoring role away from him which is why a lot of these more potent teams this year have defensive minded centers (and if not defensive, just less usage sort of guys) besides Jokic and Embiid.

This does not mean it's Vuc's fault, just like it wasn't Kevin Love's fault or Chris Bosh's fault when they didn't win where they played, but they did have to join LeBron James and hall of fame players to win titles and get far. So it's a bit of a mix of us doing nothing to add enough offensive talent to help Vuc and also Vuc just not really having the easiest skillset to compliment as a main piece.

So that leaves us in a pickle because that piece usually is not coming in free agency/we have to get lucky drafting that guy, Then others request trading other players, sure, but we're also not getting that sort of player from trading Fournier or AG. Yeah, maybe if we add Isaac and this year's pick we can get an intriguing return but that's risking a lot. So obviously people are going to look at just replacing the main guy because that person can bring considerable value.

I know some people want to trade Vuc for different reasons, but labeling it all as "blaming him" is such a silly way to look at it. It's like if Dwight didn't take us far in the finals or past the first round in his tenure, we'd say it's hard to build around a guy that can't create his own shot and stretch the floor, which is completely fair criticism.

I agree with a lot of this...The very worst takes are "blaming" Vuc for our state as an org. Reality is...If we already have Vuc, who we all agree brings a lot but requires a guy like Isaac (who we also have and who needs a guy like Vuc to "complete him"), why not just focus on the other positions? A "modern" defensive rim runner would be worthless next to Isaac, just like a one way PF like Markannen would be marginalized next to Vuc...we have a pretty solid yin/yang set of starting bigs...Every other piece should be available or on notice or fighting for their job, IMO, as this team is recreated on the fly...The returns for Vuc might be crap because he's 30, so just keep him...The only argument is "addition by subtraction" which I just can't buy into. The idea of not spending so much on Centers these days holds no water as he's already here and his contract is not outrageous...make a decent offer and you'll see very few blind Vuc devotees.

[pepe1991]

So to sum this up: Almsot every elite Gm and presitend of basketball operations wants Vučević on his team. You know, people payed millions to know basketball.

Almost every fanboy non other than Elfrid Payton, or ones who were arguing me for years how Gordon is just about to blow up and become new Kawhi Leoanrd, and every fan who thought Fultz is next superstar thinks Vuc is "hurting " team.

Yea... Let's say there is pattern there.
Very clear line of not knowing anything about basketball and ... actually understanding basketball.
You just decide what side you want to be on 2 time allstar on his own or: worst starting PG in nba, top 5 worst starting PG in nba or mediocre starter

It's good to know among 91 votes, majority of people actually know basketball, but vocal minority has flaming keyboards.

[basketballRob]

So to sum this up: Almsot every elite Gm and presitend of basketball operations wants Vučević on his team. You know, people payed millions to know basketball.

Almost every fanboy non other than Elfrid Payton, or ones who were arguing me for years how Gordon is just about to blow up and become new Kawhi Leoanrd, and every fan who thought Fultz is next superstar thinks Vuc is "hurting " team.

Yea... Let's say there is pattern there.
Very clear line of not knowing anything about basketball and ... actually understanding basketball.
You just decide what side you want to be on 2 time allstar on his own or: worst starting PG in nba, top 5 worst starting PG in nba or mediocre starter

It's good to know among 91 votes, majority of people actually know basketball, but vocal minority has flaming keyboards.

Most of the people here want to trade Vuc. We've done the poll before.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[MagicMatic]

I think the issue is people take requests of trading Vuc as a slight to Vuc instead of wondering if we can get a really good package/doing what's best for the team. Before his all-star years, we wanted to move on from Vuc because his stats were dropping and he wasn't an efficient player. He's still not the most efficient player but he shoots threes now and obviously can score anywhere on the floor, can pass as good as any big can, etc, easily our best player and worthy of his all-star selection.

HOWEVER...

He's just not the easiest player to build around. We need defensive players (like Isaac) to mask some rim protection issues and make people scared of driving, and at the same time we have yet to ever get a guy on offense that can reliably get to the line and be a first option sort of "I'm getting a bucket guy" (Vuc this season has been the closest sans free throws), but still, it's mostly trailing threes for Vuc and his automatic mid-range. Hell, we don't even know if Vuc will be as effective as a player if someone is taking that alpha scoring role away from him which is why a lot of these more potent teams this year have defensive minded centers (and if not defensive, just less usage sort of guys) besides Jokic and Embiid.

This does not mean it's Vuc's fault, just like it wasn't Kevin Love's fault or Chris Bosh's fault when they didn't win where they played, but they did have to join LeBron James and hall of fame players to win titles and get far. So it's a bit of a mix of us doing nothing to add enough offensive talent to help Vuc and also Vuc just not really having the easiest skillset to compliment as a main piece.

So that leaves us in a pickle because that piece usually is not coming in free agency/we have to get lucky drafting that guy, Then others request trading other players, sure, but we're also not getting that sort of player from trading Fournier or AG. Yeah, maybe if we add Isaac and this year's pick we can get an intriguing return but that's risking a lot. So obviously people are going to look at just replacing the main guy because that person can bring considerable value.

I know some people want to trade Vuc for different reasons, but labeling it all as "blaming him" is such a silly way to look at it. It's like if Dwight didn't take us far in the finals or past the first round in his tenure, we'd say it's hard to build around a guy that can't create his own shot and stretch the floor, which is completely fair criticism.

I agree with a lot of this...The very worst takes are "blaming" Vuc for our state as an org. Reality is...If we already have Vuc, who we all agree brings a lot but requires a guy like Isaac (who we also have and who needs a guy like Vuc to "complete him"), why not just focus on the other positions?

The returns for Vuc might be crap because he's 30, so just keep him...The only argument is "addition by subtraction" which I just can't buy into. The idea of not spending so much on Centers these days holds no water as he's already here and his contract is not outrageous...make a decent offer and you'll see very few blind Vuc devotees.

There are a few reasons why people are against building this way and not “just because”. It’s not really a “buy-into” argument.

1- Timeframe: Yes, Vuc is 30 and will be on the back end of his contract. No, it’s not completely egregious but he is still Orlando’s highest paid player. If people are banking on this lotto pick to be the game changer Orlando needs, then they have to factor in 2-3 seasons IF everything break right (health, development, lotto). That lands Orlando on Vuc’s NEXT contract and actually sets the Magic back even further if things don’t pan out. So what people are afraid of (another rebuild) is actually being compounded by mediocre results and refusing to accept that the team just isn’t well built.

2- Roster construction and asset management:

Teams don’t build backwards. They don’t find all their ancillary players first and THEN find their foundational go-to guy. The only teams I can think of that happening successfully is when stars hold organizations hostage and give them a ransom note of a short list of decent teams. That’s not what is happening here and Orlando isn’t on anyone’s short list.

To make things clearer... Orlando shouldn’t trade/move Fournier, AG, Ross, etc with the idea that Vucevic is still shouldering the load offensively. Why? Because that’s not planning for the future. Thats making short sighted moves that have no bearing on what the roster is 3-4 years from now. There is no way they wouldn’t factor Vuc into their roster decisions with all of those trades, which shouldn’t be their priority. It shouldn’t be their priority because Orlando is still “star-less” and doesn’t attract free agents unless they overpay role players.

3- Decreasing value: Vucevic seemingly doesn’t have amazing offers being thrown Orlando’s way. If they did they probably would have traded him. He’s worth more to Orlando than anyone else because Orlando is trash offensively and he’s capable for Clifford. Brook Lopez also has low value at 32 and a similar skill set, position, and comp except he doesn’t make 26m/3, he makes 12m/3 on a contender. I’m not saying they are completely relatable in efficiency, I’m pointing out that teams that are contending will not utilize him at all the same way Orlando does or value him that way whatsoever. He will inevitably return far less and end up signing somewhere for a shot at a championship before he retires. Orlando won’t replace that value why? Because they like him and he’s loyal? Good business decision I guess...

So it’s not “addition by subtraction” in terms of placing blame to him as an impetus for Orlando to move him. That’s just an easy thing to say instead of running through the downside. People keep reiterating these points, but others are willfully choosing not to consider them.

[pepe1991]

Btw i find it hilarious how some posters were raving about Evan advanced stats last year when they were bad ,but nobody will point out how team is not funcional without him this year, where he has some of best analytic stats this year. One would though- complete and utter bias and agenda?

Not that i feel that i am one of them, because i cant rembember talking much about Evan, other than i want him go lol But i dont understand this part at all & is the typical pepe.

1st. His off. advanced stats are almost identical to last year or even slightly worse. His defense is worse than ever. The loudest people raving about his advanced stats last year, were the 60%TS people, who ignored every other stats & metric
Evan is the same player he was before. A nice player in theory asked to do much more than he is capable off. A player that helps you win in a limited role on offense, as a shooter/spacer & a guy who can attack closeouts & at best doesnt play more than 30 mpg because of his defense. In this role on a good team, he is a +player, with good value.

In his role on our team, he just doesnt move the needle (on a at least semi healthy team ) & is to expensive to resign.
The things he is good at & the things he is bad at, cancel each other out. 60%TS nice, being one of the 30 worst defenders in the leaque by most metrics this year, bad. I've made a post with all the stats not long a go.

In the end, he is like Gordon a slightly above average starter on a bad team & a good 6th man on a good team

Back to your advanced stats. They show exactly that:
144th Raptor WAR
126th Total Raptor
168th RAPM
98 RPM (33rd best SG)
BPM he wasnt qualified yet but he would be around 75-80 (0.5 like Gordon)

''where he has some of best analytic stats this year'' & ''team is not funcional without him this year'' So you mean the team is better with him than with Bacon, Mane, Anthony, Aminu, Clark, Randle, Birch, Bamba, MCW (in his current role)? Because thats our rotation other than Vuc & Ross (who missed a lotta games too). Wow give him a 100 Mio contract for the next 4 years.
Thats like someone makes a thread about Fultz impact after our start & our downfall (You would be the first to rant about it )

My desire to post anything on this forum is really low mostly because people who don't understand ANYTHING about stat, see something on nba.com or RAPTOR or ESPN and without any clue what they are doing just deside to stick their ***k in and rape numbers.
I feel dummer after reading your comment because you, much like most people, don't understand underlying context of any number you post. Maybe basketball was more enjoayble sport when fans were dummies, now they are dummies with columns of numbers they don't understand. There should be phrase for nba fans like that guy told Lebron, shut up and dribble.


For start you use RAPTOR data without any understanding whatsoever what it is.

Your first parameter of usage is

"144th Raptor War" and now you are so proud and full of yourself that you didn't even took a single second to understand what those numbers show.

WAR has 3 tendencies
1) be in heavy favor of teams with great record
2) tendency to scale up with amount of min played and games played
3) stacking up with games

Sample 2) if you invested anything more than 1 second- and just saw Evan low and had eureca " this mean he is not great" proclamation and agenda that you need to feed, you would figure that Anthony Davis, ranked 29# on same list, is lower than Jarret Allen, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson...

Sample 1) Or you would take neutral player with IMPROVING PERFORMANCES and test your agenda . Bam Adebayo last year 19# in WAR, Bam Adebayo , literally doing everything better this year- #59


sample 3) This one conclusion isn't particulally hard to figure if your IQ is over 40. Highest WAR last year was measured by James Harden, his WAR was +19,8, highest current WAR is 8,4.
Either NBA players forgot how to play, or WAR progressivly gets higher with amount of min.

In all 3 cases you made fool of yourself because :
1) Magic don't have good record, therfore it's not very useful ( Magic average WAR is around 0,4, same with OKC, Jazz, on opposite spcetrum have ZERO NEGATIVE PLAYERS) therfore every moron would figure it's TEAM RELATED DATA

2) Among top 50 players in MIN PLAYED only TWO HAVE NEGATIVE WAR. Edward and Coby White, both that fall in sample A) category of bad teams = bad cumulative data

3) among players who played from at least 250 min, from lowest of 250 to next 50 players up- not a single one has RAPTOR WAR over 1,00, and vast majority of them are negative


I can go in details of other data, but it's pointless. Moral of the story is, shut up and dribble.

[Skybox]

Most of the people here want to trade Vuc. We've done the poll before.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Anyone that would put stock in a poll that doesn't specify the return is kind of silly.