Vuc - “I Love Orlando & I’m Happy”

[drsd]

I personally think if we had competent 3pt threats, team couldnt double/ guard Vuc that easily.

And-1

So back-to Fultz. If he can develop a 37% three ball on 4 attempts per game, Vučević might be unguardable.

,,

[drsd]

No personal offense intended...(almost) always my policy here.

Just tired of the "Vuc Wars"...after a contentious and crazy year in American politics where only extreme positions are assumed of the opposition. As in my case..."I don't want to dump Vuc for an expiring, some deadwood, and a late first" - therefore, "I won't consider trading Vuc at all and all future moves are based on supporting Vuc's needs"

or on the other side, "Vuc isn't an ideal first option" - therefore, "We can never win with Vuc, look at the last decade- if we only got rid of him, we'd have rings on all fingers and toes"

For me I ask this in all trade ideas; "In what way does the proposed trade make Orlando a better team." If we all had that sort of mind-set, then defending one's idea can be more objective. BLOW-IT UP and RUN-IT BACK are both insane options, and I agree it is overly polar in concept.

..

[MagicStarwipe]

wow that's rich, comming from a guy who wanted to build whole team around Elfrid Payton.

"BuT pEPe WhY YoU MeNtion PayTon, hE iS noT heRe "

Don't worry, i only bring him to remind you that you know anything about basketball.

LOL you can set your clock to pepe bringing up Payton when he's owned in a back and forth

F Fournier and Vuc and their buddyball . They ignore 3 other players and play 2 on 5 every time.
Vučevic is probably worst starting defender in the league along OKafor.

Oh look... looks like you also KNow NuTHing ABouT BazzKetBall. But this was when you joined the board as a Mario homer. Someone who IS actually out of the league

How cute, you had to go back in 2016 to find it. Also it was very true at times, we had Harris and Oladipo with them and both were better offensive options than , at times, pretty meh Vučević.

Over next years Vuc took his game to next level.

As far as Hezonja goes, i liked him, he failed, i pertty much closed "mario = good " gates after 3 years. You kept being Hair homer even after he left.

Your whole gimmick about Payton was:
blame it on Oladipo
blame it on Fournier
blame it on Vuc
Blame it on Skiles
Blame it on Vogel

it was NEVER Elf's fault.

in mean time, when it was so obvious that Payton is terrible , two and half years AFTER my Hezonja claim, you posted this





Irony of post was fact that Magic made playoffs and Pelicans didn't, Pelicans later decided to not re-sign Payton

Re: Elfrid Payton just doesn't make players better
0
Post#5 » by MagicStarwipe » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:00 am

Keep looking everywhere but where the real problem is.

Level of delusion was so high that you claimed Elfrid Payton is top 10 PG in nba.. in 2017

Re: Does De'Aaron Fox or DSJ have more star potential than Payton?
0
Post#95 » by MagicStarwipe » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:59 am

I could see Fox being good, but I don't like DSJ at all. Elfrid basically moved into the top 15 PG's this season. After the all-star break he was pushing top 10.

In league that in that moment had: prime Curry, CP3, Lowry, Westbrook, Wall, Lillard, Thomas, Kyrie, Conley, Kemba, allstar Teague, still funcional Parker, still fine Derron Williams, allstar Rondo, Derick Rose, Jrue Holiday... Guy wasn't even as good as Dragic, Bledsoe, Schroder, Rubio , George Hill . But , according to you, he was top 10.

Dude, be a good boy and take an L on Payton train. Ship has sailed, he is worst starting PG today, he has been top 5 worst starting PG since 2014.

Funniest part about it was when some writer exposed Payton and his "defense" that his fans called great, yet you and few others kept pretending it's not his fault. Once replaced with Dj, who was career backup PG,we become playoff team.

LOL, so you're talking about the year that Elfrid was essentially our best player. In which he averaged 13.5/7/8.5 after the all star break. Sounds bad until you give it context. I wonder if you even know what context is. Maybe he wasn't playing like top 10 after the all-star break. Not far off it, but maybe not top 10. And maybe, just maybe... I was making an off the cuff non scientific low stakes post on a basketball message board you goddamn psycho lol.

But here's the thing you still can't seem to understand. I don't give a f***. I don't actually care what you said in the past about Mario or Bamba or anyone else. I was making fun of you by impersonating your pettiness by how you dig through old posts like a stalker does lol. Because unlike you I don't need to be right all the time on a basketball message board. You're the one with the weird obsession with always being correct regardless of whether you admit it or not. It's just sad.

Heaven forbid not everybody is drinking the Vuc "star" kool aid. Boo-hoo pepe lol.

[Knightro]

Read on Twitter

[thelead]

Read on Twitter

I stopped posting the Vuc +/- in games because I don't even care anymore. Yes the team sucks but I just don't see a winning style with what Cliff is trying to do.

[pepe1991]

Read on Twitter

And this is execlly the reason why nobody uses that data.

Joe Harris used to have -120 , now he has +236 by just having different teammates. This is what happends when you replace Demar Carroll and Jarrett Dudley with Harden and Durant.

On other side SGA as player improved, but went from +151 to -150.

Among "worst " there are SGA, Russell, Ross,Garland, Rubio, Fox, Wall, Beal, Hield... This is execlly why nobody cares about plus minus. Great players can have terrible numbers , if they are stuck in bad situations.

[thelead]

Read on Twitter

And this is execlly the reason why nobody uses that data.

Joe Harris used to have -120 , now he has +236 by just having different teammates. This is what happends when you replace Demar Carroll and Jarrett Dudley with Harden and Durant.

On other side SGA as player improved, but went from +151 to -150.

Among "worst " there are SGA, Russell, Ross,Garland, Rubio, Fox, Wall, Beal, Hield... This is execlly why nobody cares about plus minus. Great players can have terrible numbers , if they are stuck in bad situations.

I agree that it's not a great stat... but what is Bamba's +/- on this terrible team in a bad situation?

[zaymon]

Read on Twitter

And this is execlly the reason why nobody uses that data.

Joe Harris used to have -120 , now he has +236 by just having different teammates. This is what happends when you replace Demar Carroll and Jarrett Dudley with Harden and Durant.

On other side SGA as player improved, but went from +151 to -150.

Among "worst " there are SGA, Russell, Ross,Garland, Rubio, Fox, Wall, Beal, Hield... This is execlly why nobody cares about plus minus. Great players can have terrible numbers , if they are stuck in bad situations.

I agree that it's not a great stat... but what is Bamba's +/- on this terrible team in a bad situation?

Since when Bamba is our lead offensive option against starters ? Mo stats are more like curiosities than real numbers.

[drsd]

Read on Twitter

Would Orlando be even worse without Vučević? The answer must be a resounding YES.


Orlando has the third worst point differential of all teams this season at -6.6. Vučević by far has the most minutes played on the Magic this season at 1254 total minutes is more than 200 more minutes than player #2: Ross at 1032. Of course the player with the most minutes played on the 3rd worst points differential team will have a horrible plus/minus.

The real question in this Plus/Minus is comparing the point differential of Orlando for when Vučević is on the court vs. when he is off of it, scaled to a metric (usually 36 minutes. As Vučević is playing 34 minutes per game and has played in all 36 games, this means that there is only 12 minutes per game he has not been on the court; thus the need for scaling.)

Looking at a stat that is wins over replacement, Vučević is currently with a VORP that is 9th highest in the NBA at 2.5. I guess one way of looking at that is that Vučević has single handedly kept the Magic from a currently expected 10-26 record.

EDIT: more on the -236 plus/minus. As a differential itself this plus/minus should be stated per minutes. So Vučević is at -236/33.9 = -6.96 per. I winder how other players rank in plus/minus divided by minutes played per game.

..

[purpleswordfish]

Read on Twitter

Would Orlando be even worse without Vučević? The answer must be a resounding YES.


Orlando has the third worst point differential of all teams this season at -6.6. Vučević by far has the most minutes played on the Magic this season at 1254 total minutes is more than 200 more minutes than player #2: Ross at 1032. Of course the player with the most minutes played on the 3rd worst points differential team will have a horrible plus/minus.

The real question in this Plus/Minus is comparing the point differential of Orlando for when Vučević is on the court vs. when he is off of it, scaled to a metric (usually 36 minutes. As Vučević is playing 34 minutes per game and has played in all 36 games, this means that there is only 12 minutes per game he has not been on the court; thus the need for scaling.)

Looking at a stat that is wins over replacement, Vučević is currently with a VORP that is 9th highest in the NBA at 2.5. I guess one way of looking at that is that Vučević has single handedly kept the Magic from a currently expected 10-26 record.

EDIT: more on the -236 plus/minus. As a differential itself this plus/minus should be stated per minutes. So Vučević is at -236/33.9 = -6.96 per. I winder how other players rank in plus/minus divided by minutes played per game.

..

I just wanted to say this is a thorough analysis and explanation of why that tweet - while entertaining and interesting - can be a bit misleading.

[Xatticus]

Read on Twitter

Would Orlando be even worse without Vučević? The answer must be a resounding YES.


Orlando has the third worst point differential of all teams this season at -6.6. Vučević by far has the most minutes played on the Magic this season at 1254 total minutes is more than 200 more minutes than player #2: Ross at 1032. Of course the player with the most minutes played on the 3rd worst points differential team will have a horrible plus/minus.

The real question in this Plus/Minus is comparing the point differential of Orlando for when Vučević is on the court vs. when he is off of it, scaled to a metric (usually 36 minutes. As Vučević is playing 34 minutes per game and has played in all 36 games, this means that there is only 12 minutes per game he has not been on the court; thus the need for scaling.)

Looking at a stat that is wins over replacement, Vučević is currently with a VORP that is 9th highest in the NBA at 2.5. I guess one way of looking at that is that Vučević has single handedly kept the Magic from a currently expected 10-26 record.

EDIT: more on the -236 plus/minus. As a differential itself this plus/minus should be stated per minutes. So Vučević is at -236/33.9 = -6.96 per. I winder how other players rank in plus/minus divided by minutes played per game.

..

I applaud your newfound interest in statistics, but you are well behind the curve. Vucevic has been dead last in raw plus/minus for most of the year, but I don't cite that for the reasons you've mentioned. This is why we use net rating. It is essentially your plus/minus per 100 possessions.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=202696&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Vucevic has a net rating of -8.8. That's awful regardless of the circumstances. Orlando has a -0.6 net rating when Vucevic has been on the bench. If you dig into the numbers at all, you can't write this off to playing next to **** teammates (more on this later...). During our 6-2 start to the season, we were -18 while Vucevic was on the floor and +68 when he was on the bench. Basically, we've gotten plowed whenever he has been on the floor this year. This is because we have been dreadful at the offensive end regardless of whether or not Vucevic has been on the floor, but we have been a very good defensive team when he hasn't.

A quick primer on stats: These "metrics" that people cite don't actually mean a whole hell of a lot. I put "metrics" in quotations because a real metric has to have validity, which is to say that you need to have some verifiable means of proving that you are measuring what you are claiming to measure. Things like PER, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WARP, and RPM don't actually do this. They are just formulae with arbitrary weights assigned to various statistics to produce a list that reflects public perception for the purposes of entertainment. That's it. Some give some weight to plus/minus, but none significantly so. RAPM is different. It's an adjusted plus/minus that addresses the shortcomings you cited and then some. You are not going to like what you see though because it doesn't give a **** how many points per game you score.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRDbpET9PUorhyjaw4DsPLszr8xc-tes0Ae2rp3Wwr2vxPvjUoXeY0lUNQq_mq8YgOKSWYz5Xz43fCE/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

Would Orlando be worse this year without Vucevic? Probably not. I mean... aside from the fact that we have literally been much better this year when he has been on the bench, you just can't get much worse than -8.8 per 100 possessions. In most seasons, that's good enough for worst in the league. It would really depend on the context though. If you just subtracted him from the roster, then I don't really see any reason to believe that we'd be better, but if he were traded for Vassell and Poeltl, for example, I suspect that we would immediately improve. That's a lot of quality minutes you'd be getting in return. I remember having the same sort of discussions when McGrady was leading the team to 21 wins. Many were convinced that he was the only reason that roster won any games, but the team improved by 15 wins the year after he was traded away. Piling up stats doesn't actually mean you are any good.

[paperboymafia]

I suggest you all watch / listen to JJ Redicks podcast with Vuc on it , clips coming out today on youtube, some really good stuff on there.

[GelbeWand09]

I personally think if we had competent 3pt threats, team couldnt double/ guard Vuc that easily.

And-1

So back-to Fultz. If he can develop a 37% three ball on 4 attempts per game, Vučević might be unguardable.

,,

Compared to most other high volume players, Vuc isnt really guarded that heavily.

Vuc takes by far the most wide open shots in the leaque

On the other side, on close & very close guarded shot attempts, he is 49th & 156th in the leaque while taking the 7th most shots in the NBA.

Vuc mediocre eff. has nothing to do how he is guarded & he won't be ''unguardable'' with shooters around him. He is just a weird player. On one side super skilled & when you watch him he can do everything but on the other side, he is maybe the worst high volume player ever going to the line.

[GelbeWand09]

Read on Twitter

Would Orlando be even worse without Vučević? The answer must be a resounding YES.


Orlando has the third worst point differential of all teams this season at -6.6. Vučević by far has the most minutes played on the Magic this season at 1254 total minutes is more than 200 more minutes than player #2: Ross at 1032. Of course the player with the most minutes played on the 3rd worst points differential team will have a horrible plus/minus.

The real question in this Plus/Minus is comparing the point differential of Orlando for when Vučević is on the court vs. when he is off of it, scaled to a metric (usually 36 minutes. As Vučević is playing 34 minutes per game and has played in all 36 games, this means that there is only 12 minutes per game he has not been on the court; thus the need for scaling.)

Looking at a stat that is wins over replacement, Vučević is currently with a VORP that is 9th highest in the NBA at 2.5. I guess one way of looking at that is that Vučević has single handedly kept the Magic from a currently expected 10-26 record.

EDIT: more on the -236 plus/minus. As a differential itself this plus/minus should be stated per minutes. So Vučević is at -236/33.9 = -6.96 per. I winder how other players rank in plus/minus divided by minutes played per game.

..

I applaud your newfound interest in statistics, but you are well behind the curve. Vucevic has been dead last in raw plus/minus for most of the year, but I don't cite that for the reasons you've mentioned. This is why we use net rating. It is essentially your plus/minus per 100 possessions.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=202696&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Vucevic has a net rating of -8.8. That's awful regardless of the circumstances. Orlando has a -0.6 net rating when Vucevic has been on the bench. If you dig into the numbers at all, you can't write this off to playing next to **** teammates (more on this later...). During our 6-2 start to the season, we were -18 while Vucevic was on the floor and +68 when he was on the bench. Basically, we've gotten plowed whenever he has been on the floor this year. This is because we have been dreadful at the offensive end regardless of whether or not Vucevic has been on the floor, but we have been a very good defensive team when he hasn't.

A quick primer on stats: These "metrics" that people cite don't actually mean a whole hell of a lot. I put "metrics" in quotations because a real metric has to have validity, which is to say that you need to have some verifiable means of proving that you are measuring what you are claiming to measure. Things like PER, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WARP, and RPM don't actually do this. They are just formulae with arbitrary weights assigned to various statistics to produce a list that reflects public perception for the purposes of entertainment. That's it. Some give some weight to plus/minus, but none significantly so. RAPM is different. It's an adjusted plus/minus that addresses the shortcomings you cited and then some. You are not going to like what you see though because it doesn't give a **** how many points per game you score.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRDbpET9PUorhyjaw4DsPLszr8xc-tes0Ae2rp3Wwr2vxPvjUoXeY0lUNQq_mq8YgOKSWYz5Xz43fCE/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

Would Orlando be worse this year without Vucevic? Probably not. I mean... aside from the fact that we have literally been much better this year when he has been on the bench, you just can't get much worse than -8.8 per 100 possessions. In most seasons, that's good enough for worst in the league. It would really depend on the context though. If you just subtracted him from the roster, then I don't really see any reason to believe that we'd be better, but if he were traded for Vassell and Poeltl, for example, I suspect that we would immediately improve. That's a lot of quality minutes you'd be getting in return. I remember having the same sort of discussions when McGrady was leading the team to 21 wins. Many were convinced that he was the only reason that roster won any games, but the team improved by 15 wins the year after he was traded away. Piling up stats doesn't actually mean you are any good.

Just take Booker. Scoring 26+ ppg on 20 win teams every year. A midget, 35 year old PG, scoring 16 ppg turns that team, with the help of another 2 way player in Bridges, into a top 5 team overnight.
Rookie Embiid had worse raw stats than Vuc, but he transformed one of the worst teams ever into a team with a 45+ win projection. Again 2 way player impact.

[Bensational]

I suggest you all watch / listen to JJ Redicks podcast with Vuc on it , clips coming out today on youtube, some really good stuff on there.

Watch on YouTube

Damn, great recommendation! That was such a good listen. Regardless of how highly you value Vuc’s game, you can’t deny he seems like such a great dude. Seems like he’s really grown into leadership and would be a great locker room presence.

[jonbob17]

Since when Bamba is our lead offensive option against starters ? Mo stats are more like curiosities than real numbers.

The argument that Bamba plays against back ups is a little tired too. Minutes are minutes, and Vuc has plenty of games where he played more than 37 minutes. You aren't logging those kind of minutes against starters only. Vuc gets plenty of time against back ups. Plus with all the COVID stuff and the condensed schedule, starters are out all the time.

The starting unit is terrible, both on offense and defense. It's not on Vuc, but it's not, not on him either.
MCW, Bacon, Ross, Ennis, Clark, Aminu, and Anthony have no business being part of a starting NBA unit.

[paperboymafia]

I suggest you all watch / listen to JJ Redicks podcast with Vuc on it , clips coming out today on youtube, some really good stuff on there.

Watch on YouTube

Damn, great recommendation! That was such a good listen. Regardless of how highly you value Vuc’s game, you can’t deny he seems like such a great dude. Seems like he’s really grown into leadership and would be a great locker room presence.

You're welcome, thanks for posting it here

[pepe1991]

So raw plus minus over years:

2016-17 starter with best plus minus- Nikola Vučević
2017-18- starter with best plus minus- Nikola Vučević
2018-19 - team's best plus minus player- Nikola Vučević + 218
2019-20 - team's second best ( behind DJ ) + 52- Nikola Vučević

As far as pretending that net rating is holy grail of "analytics" , it's just desparate attemp from biased poster to hold onto his agenda, where any other anti Vuc data failed him. But i won't let this nonsense slip without b*** slapping nonsense.
But everybody with common sense, healthy logic can see:
2019-20 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander net rating +3,5
2020-21 improved Shai Gilgeous-Alexander net rating -5,6

2018-199 Steven Adams net rating on contdener +6,7
2019-20 Steven Adams net rating on playoff team +4,4
2020-21 Steven Adams net rating on bad team - 0,6

2020-21 Steph Curry net rating +1,4
2019-20 Steph Curry net rating -15,3
2018-19 Steph Curry net rating +13,7

By just looking at Steph Curry's net rating, that went from one of greatest in history ,to one of worst in nba, to being painfully average, by always being same- one of best PG ever, it's not hard to see how another myth of certain poster is busted. Net rating, like any other data, struggles to extract "impact" from team sucess or failure. And that's fine. That's why nobody really pays attention to nba.com nor bb reference stats if team is complete and utter failure. Numbers will be ugly across the board.


Michael Carter Williams, prior turning Magic defense around in 2018-19 had breef stint with Houston, where his net rating was epic -20,7.
Michael Carter Williams, packed his bags and moved to Orlando,where , in matter of seconds, his net rating went to one of best in nba, +14,00
Now go ahead and keep making fool of yourself talking about Vuc net rating, pretending it has nothing to do with situation, 4 missing starters, incompetent bench and ofc never mention that Ross, Cole Anthony, Fultz , Bamba, Gordon ,Birch and Evan, all have negative net rating. Matter of fact James Ennis and MCW are actually ONLY positive ones. But as usual, just cherrypick and make huge post talking around extracted,cherrypicked claim, without ever adding any context

[Last Guardian]

I'm still a bit intrigued by a potential Okeke/Isaac/Vuc front court. Provided Isaac/Okeke can be healthy and at least decent shooters, and we massively upgrade the guard rotation. Wouldn't be a star studded team but could be a really competitive on both ends.

[jonbob17]

Compared to most other high volume players, Vuc isnt really guarded that heavily.

Vuc takes by far the most wide open shots in the leaque

On the other side, on close & very close guarded shot attempts, he is 49th & 156th in the leaque while taking the 7th most shots in the NBA.

Vuc mediocre eff. has nothing to do how he is guarded & he won't be ''unguardable'' with shooters around him. He is just a weird player. On one side super skilled & when you watch him he can do everything but on the other side, he is maybe the worst high volume player ever going to the line.

Vuc only take 12% of his shots at the rim. He makes them at a 70% clip. That's why he doesn't get to the line. 12% of shots 0-3ft is the 2nd lowest mark for a center in the league behind Marc Gasol.
Mitch Rob 90% at rim
Gobert 77% at rim

He's definitely a unique player.