Tanking and the Lottery odds

jonbob17 · Post #1 » by **jonbob17** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:15 pm

I was thinking through some tanking scenarios and thought I would think out loud here, as much for my own future reference as anything, but I am sure smarter people than me at the organizations mentioned have already been thinking through these.

Minnesota and Houston seem like our stiffest competition for draft seeding.
Minnesota keeps it's pick if it is top 3, if they fall out of the top three then gives up next years 1st unprotected.
Houston keeps it's pick if it a top 4 pick, otherwise gets Miami's pick. So both teams clearly have a lot of motivation to keep these picks, in this year of the so many high-end prospects.

BUT
Both Minnesota and Houston have the same exact odds of keeping their pick if they are the worst team, 2nd worst team, or the 3rd worst team. (Minn 40%) (Hou 52%)
IF Minny finishes 4th worst their odd of keeping their pick drop from 40% to 37%, 5th worst 32%, 6th worst 28%
IF Houston finishes 4th worst their odds of keeping their pick drop from 52% to 48%, 5th worst 42%, 6th worst 37%

Orlando's goal needs to be a top 5 pick, as there are 5 excellent prospects in this draft.
Here are the odds of a top 5 pick by where you finish
Worst 100%
2nd (worst) 80%
3rd 73%
4th 67%
5th 55%
6th 44%
7th 37%
8th 32%
9th 26%
10th 20%

We control our own fate. Houston and Minnesota are a coin flip or worse to keep their picks to begin with. The point is we should have more to lose than either of these teams. They look to be tanking hard, but we should be even more focused on our final record.

So if we finish worst we have 100% chance of a top 5 pick, if we finish 6th worst a 44% chance of a top 5 pick, a 56% decline vs Houston's odds decreasing from 52% to 37%, a 15% change.

It does seem like the FO is starting to control who is available, as these injuries are seeming to linger, but every win is going to catch up with us eventually.

drsd · Post #2 » by **drsd** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:12 pm

The season looks like Orlando will finish 4th worst.

Post #3 » by **Def Swami** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:30 pm

I'm honestly not prepared for the devastation on lottery night when we go in with top 3 lottery odds, only to fall to the 6th pick in a top 5 draft. Lottery and draft night has been really unkind to us for over a decade.

jonbob17 · Post #4 » by **jonbob17** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:34 pm

Def Swami wrote:I'm honestly not prepared for the devastation on lottery night when we go in with top 3 lottery odds, only to fall to the 6th pick in a top 5 draft. Lottery and draft night has been really unkind to us for over a decade.

27% chance of that happening should we finish with top 3 lottery odds. 0% if we finish with worst.

RookieStar · Post #5 » by **RookieStar** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:53 pm

Yeah.. think of NY. Expecting 5th but dropped to 8. How much hurting would it feel expecting 4th but dropping out of the top-5

orlando_joe · Post #6 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:54 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
Def Swami wrote:I'm honestly not prepared for the devastation on lottery night when we go in with top 3 lottery odds, only to fall to the 6th pick in a top 5 draft. Lottery and draft night has been really unkind to us for over a decade.

27% chance of that happening should we finish with top 3 lottery odds. 0% if we finish with worst.

and there is almost 0 chance magic end with top 2 worst ..and very,very ,very slim chance magic end 3rd worst.. chance 4th...5-9th odds more likely

jonbob17 · Post #7 » by **jonbob17** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:00 pm

orlando_joe wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
Def Swami wrote:I'm honestly not prepared for the devastation on lottery night when we go in with top 3 lottery odds, only to fall to the 6th pick in a top 5 draft. Lottery and draft night has been really unkind to us for over a decade.

27% chance of that happening should we finish with top 3 lottery odds. 0% if we finish with worst.

and there is almost 0 chance magic end with top 2 worst ..and very,very ,very slim chance magic end 3rd worst.. chance 4th...5-9th odds more likely

Why? It doesn't have to be. We have the hardest schedule. Detroit has the easiest. We move some guys, limit Vuc's minutes, and don't playhim on back to backs.

The reasons I pointed out, tend to show that Minnesota and Houston shouldn't be that committed to the worst record, Minnesota does need a long look at what their team looks like with DLo and KAT.

We have every incentive to finish with the worst record.

orlando_joe · Post #8 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:13 pm

minn won 7 games in first half...magic have 13 now...you think magic wont win any ? ..houston lost what 14 straight? you think they start winning?...piston know odds to ..king are like the kings of tanking...you really see these teams winning? really?

drsd · Post #9 » by **drsd** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:21 pm

orlando_joe wrote:and there is almost 0 chance magic end with top 2 worst ..and very,very ,very slim chance magic end 3rd worst.. chance 4th...5-9th odds more likely

To emerge as the 8th or 9th worst team, Orlando needs a 55% win rate. I cannot see that.

..

orlando_joe · Post #10 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:29 pm

drsd wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:and there is almost 0 chance magic end with top 2 worst ..and very,very ,very slim chance magic end 3rd worst.. chance 4th...5-9th odds more likely

To emerge as the 8th or 9th worst team, Orlando needs a 55% win rate. I cannot see that.

..

only 2 games back from 8th now...lol...other teams could phone it in to...are you sure

orlando_joe · Post #11 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:30 pm

delete double post

jonbob17 · Post #12 » by **jonbob17** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:45 pm

orlando_joe wrote:minn won 7 games in first half...magic have 13 now...you think magic wont win any ? ..houston lost what 14 straight? you think they start winning?...piston know odds to ..king are like the kings of tanking...you really see these teams winning? really?

I’d be really surprised If the worst record was less than 17 wins. We can finish between that and 20 wins, but it would take some help from the front office. We can’t leave the future of this franchise up to chance

orlando_joe · Post #13 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:27 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:minn won 7 games in first half...magic have 13 now...you think magic wont win any ? ..houston lost what 14 straight? you think they start winning?...piston know odds to ..king are like the kings of tanking...you really see these teams winning? really?

I’d be really surprised If the worst record was less than 17 wins. We can finish between that and 20 wins, but it would take some help from the front office. We can’t leave the future of this franchise up to chance

magic almost beat heat in miami last night with 1 start....vuc..who won 7 of there last 8 games...oh and ag playing 14 min...also no ross and no ennis...lol....ok magic only win 3 games

jonbob17 · Post #14 » by **jonbob17** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:31 pm

orlando_joe wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:minn won 7 games in first half...magic have 13 now...you think magic wont win any ? ..houston lost what 14 straight? you think they start winning?...piston know odds to ..king are like the kings of tanking...you really see these teams winning? really?

I’d be really surprised If the worst record was less than 17 wins. We can finish between that and 20 wins, but it would take some help from the front office. We can’t leave the future of this franchise up to chance

magic almost beat heat in miami last night with 1 start....vuc...oh and ag playing 14 min...also no ross and no ennis...lol....ok magic only win 3 games

That is why I said the roster will need help from the front office. Moves need to be made, and Vuc's minutes need to be limited.

I think you are missing the original point that the Rockets and Twolves don't have to finish with the worst record, their odds are locked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd worst. They won't have to play G league guys down the stretch. they can afford to win some games. And the other team currently with a worse record than the Magic than those two has the easiest remaining schedule in the league, though they will certainly commit to a tank at some point soon.

The Magic front office would have to commit to this, but it is worth committing to. If they keep the roster, and the guys come back from injury this is a solid 25-30 win team.

orlando_joe · Post #15 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:45 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
I’d be really surprised If the worst record was less than 17 wins. We can finish between that and 20 wins, but it would take some help from the front office. We can’t leave the future of this franchise up to chance

magic almost beat heat in miami last night with 1 start....vuc...oh and ag playing 14 min...also no ross and no ennis...lol....ok magic only win 3 games

That is why I said the roster will need help from the front office. Moves need to be made, and Vuc's minutes need to be limited.

I think you are missing the original point that the Rockets and Twolves don't have to finish with the worst record, their odds are locked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd worst. They won't have to play G league guys down the stretch. they can afford to win some games. And the other team currently with a worse record than the Magic than those two has the easiest remaining schedule in the league, though they will certainly commit to a tank at some point soon.

The Magic front office would have to commit to this, but it is worth committing to. If they keep the roster, and the guys come back from injury this is a solid 25-30 win team.

thats like collecting unemployment when you can work...do not see magic doing that..its wrong...now if trade makes team better long term they should do it ...if not they should not trade just for pick to be better

jonbob17 · Post #16 » by **jonbob17** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:03 pm

orlando_joe wrote:thats like collecting unemployment when you can work...do not see magic doing that..its wrong...now if trade makes team better long term they should do it ...if not they should not trade just for pick to be better

I am not suggesting they make bad trades but they need to move guys for other assets, preferably picks, and expirings (cap space). Frankly they have needed to balance the roster for a long time. The point is for the team to get better, and our best way to that is by adding talent through this draft.

orlando_joe · Post #17 » by **orlando_joe** » Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:28 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:thats like collecting unemployment when you can work...do not see magic doing that..its wrong...now if trade makes team better long term they should do it ...if not they should not trade just for pick to be better

I am not suggesting they make bad trades but they need to move guys for other assets, preferably picks, and expirings (cap space). Frankly they have needed to balance the roster for a long time. The point is for the team to get better, and our best way to that is by adding talent through this draft.

i agree on draft ..i want a high pick as much as anyone this yr...just do not want to give asset for lottery luck ..would give asset to move up..but hoping this yr magic have some lottery luck were ever they end up

The Effect · Post #18 » by **The Effect** » Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:33 am

We arent going to be in the top 5, give up on that dream

At the end of the season, when smart teams in the 5-9 range are going to be tanking HARD while we go all out to win those meaningless games. Like in late april, we have a game against the Pelicans, i will bet any amount of money that Zion, Ingram, bledsoe and probably steven adams will all be "hurt" and not play

And i assume the same thing will happen with every other non-playoff team we face the final month of the season. And over the last month of thse season, we play 18 games, ill predict we win atleast 8 games, maybe more. We play the pelicans, pistons, hornets twice (if they fall down the stretch, we will beat them in atleast one of those meaningless games), hawks, rockets, cavs (you think Sexton plays in this game??), T-wolves, not probably 76ers on the final day if they rest their starters

basketballRob · Post #19 » by **basketballRob** » Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:14 am

orlando_joe wrote:minn won 7 games in first half...magic have 13 now...you think magic wont win any ? ..houston lost what 14 straight? you think they start winning?...piston know odds to ..king are like the kings of tanking...you really see these teams winning? really?

We have the hardest schedule in the league, in second half. The rest of the teams in the bottom 6 or so, play each other multiple times. The Magic will be underdogs in every game left.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

orlando_joe · Post #20 » by **orlando_joe** » Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:30 am

basketballRob wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:minn won 7 games in first half...magic have 13 now...you think magic wont win any ? ..houston lost what 14 straight? you think they start winning?...piston know odds to ..king are like the kings of tanking...you really see these teams winning? really?
We have the hardest schedule in the league, in second half. The rest of the teams in the bottom 6 or so, play each other multiple times. The Magic will be underdogs in every game left.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

i see them winning 20 or so games...i dont see minn,houston or pistons and maybe kings winning 20 plus games and can see washinton and cavs phone it in ..