ImageImageImageImage

Race for Ping Pong Balls

Moderators: Knightro, SOUL, Def Swami, Howard Mass, UCFJayBird, UCF, ChosenSavior

User avatar
tiderulz
RealGM
Posts: 31,069
And1: 11,537
Joined: Jun 16, 2010
Location: Atlanta
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1281 » by tiderulz » Mon May 17, 2021 4:56 am

The Effect wrote:
Howard Mass wrote:Way to go OKC.

Magic get 3rd-best Lottery Odds. Also get 33rd pick (high 2nd) in Second Round.

Weham are probably gonna be able to sell that for alot!

sold for a pick protect 31-45 in 2025
User avatar
KillMonger
RealGM
Posts: 12,325
And1: 6,054
Joined: Oct 13, 2012
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1282 » by KillMonger » Mon May 17, 2021 5:05 am

so if i'm seeing the odds correctly, we have about a 67% chance of landing a top 5 pick? i'll take those odds
Image

FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX ....... FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX
User avatar
Howard Mass
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 60,136
And1: 12,955
Joined: Feb 20, 2001
Location: Longwood, Florida
Contact:
       

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1283 » by Howard Mass » Mon May 17, 2021 5:31 am

The Effect wrote:
Howard Mass wrote:Way to go OKC.

Magic get 3rd-best Lottery Odds. Also get 33rd pick (high 2nd) in Second Round.

Weham are probably gonna be able to sell that for alot!


If The Magic get The Bulls Pick, The magic will have to access if there is anyone there that they really like.

It's possible they move it for a bunch of future 2nds, trade down for someone more likely to sign outright with Lakeland or on a Two-Way Deal while netting some 2nds.

They could also stash someone overseas for a few years.

It really depends who is there.
R.I.P. Dharam Raghubir (A.K.A. Magnumt)

:beer:
User avatar
Howard Mass
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 60,136
And1: 12,955
Joined: Feb 20, 2001
Location: Longwood, Florida
Contact:
       

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1284 » by Howard Mass » Mon May 17, 2021 5:32 am

tiderulz wrote:
The Effect wrote:
Howard Mass wrote:Way to go OKC.

Magic get 3rd-best Lottery Odds. Also get 33rd pick (high 2nd) in Second Round.

Weham are probably gonna be able to sell that for alot!

sold for a pick protect 31-45 in 2025


Nah, they'd net 3-4 future 2nds for #33 if they went that route.
R.I.P. Dharam Raghubir (A.K.A. Magnumt)

:beer:
The Effect
Magic Forum Mock Draft Co-Champ
Posts: 3,561
And1: 1,403
Joined: Jul 09, 2004

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1285 » by The Effect » Mon May 17, 2021 5:51 am

Howard Mass wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
The Effect wrote:Weham are probably gonna be able to sell that for alot!

sold for a pick protect 31-45 in 2025


Nah, they'd net 3-4 future 2nds for #33 if they went that route.

Sure, maybe 3-4 top 55 protected picks in 2030/31/32/33

But considering we already have multiple 2nd rounders over the next few years from the bucks (22,23,24,26) and celtics (i dont know the years but i remember it was a while away right? like 2025?).....im betting this years 2nd rounder is either a stash or gets sold. Im hoping for stash
The Effect
Magic Forum Mock Draft Co-Champ
Posts: 3,561
And1: 1,403
Joined: Jul 09, 2004

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1286 » by The Effect » Mon May 17, 2021 5:53 am

RookieStar wrote:Anyhoo... when we went full tank I knew we couldnt reach #1 but #2 and 3 were achievable. We got it so hopefully during the lotto we dont have bad luck and pick 1-3 pls.

I know this is weird to say, but i really hope we get pick 1, 3 or 4.....I dont want the second pick because i know weham, if hes available, they will take Mobley

If we cant get cade, it better be one of the jalens
User avatar
Message Boar
Senior
Posts: 581
And1: 543
Joined: Apr 07, 2019
Location: The Netherlands
       

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1287 » by Message Boar » Mon May 17, 2021 7:09 am

All in all I'm satisfied with the result of the tank. A win or two less would've been cool, sure, but you can't have it all. Being alone in the bottom 3 for the largest possible amount of combinations is pretty good, so I consider the mission a success. Now we just hope the basketball gods smile on us on lottery night.

As for the Bulls pick, I guess we should be mildly disappointed that they won and moved into a tie for 8/9/10? Especially should they lose whatever coinflip shenanigans will go on later? Or should we be happy that that pick has a even bigger chance to convey now? I'm not 100% sure on that one yet.

edit: looked over on the Bulls board and they were pretty mad about winning, so at least that's a good sign.
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 11,637
And1: 2,572
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1288 » by RookieStar » Mon May 17, 2021 7:14 am

The Effect wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Anyhoo... when we went full tank I knew we couldnt reach #1 but #2 and 3 were achievable. We got it so hopefully during the lotto we dont have bad luck and pick 1-3 pls.

I know this is weird to say, but i really hope we get pick 1, 3 or 4.....I dont want the second pick because i know weham, if hes available, they will take Mobley

If we cant get cade, it better be one of the jalens

I too would prefer one of the Jalens iåf Cade is gone BUT if we do get #2 and we get Mobley, thrn I trust our FO took the BPA especially after the process of researching all the picks.

I mean after their surprise but pleasant choice of Chuma Cole and RJ then I think that they really.know what they are doing.
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 11,637
And1: 2,572
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1289 » by RookieStar » Mon May 17, 2021 7:15 am

Message Boar wrote:All in all I'm satisfied with the result of the tank. A win or two less would've been cool, sure, but you can't have it all. Being alone in the bottom 3 for the largest possible amount of combinations is pretty good, so I consider the mission a success. Now we just hope the basketball gods smile on us on lottery night.

As for the Bulls pick, I guess we should be mildly disappointed that they won and moved into a tie for 8/9/10? Especially should they lose whatever coinflip shenanigans will go on later? Or should we be happy that that pick has a even bigger chance to convey now? I'm not 100% sure on that one yet.

edit: looked over on the Bulls board and they were pretty mad about winning, so at least that's a good sign.


Some of us were gonna be contented if the bulls pick was a12-14 this year. So if its 8/9/10 then that would be cherry on top
User avatar
Def Swami
Forum Mod - Magic
Forum Mod - Magic
Posts: 24,732
And1: 13,414
Joined: Aug 04, 2008
Location: Thanks Denver!
Contact:
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1290 » by Def Swami » Mon May 17, 2021 11:16 am

We maximized our lottery odds. The tank worked. Now it's up to the basketball gods.
User avatar
MoMM
General Manager
Posts: 9,483
And1: 1,298
Joined: Jan 08, 2002
Location: Brazilian living in Berlin
Contact:
       

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1291 » by MoMM » Mon May 17, 2021 11:26 am

RookieStar wrote:
Message Boar wrote:All in all I'm satisfied with the result of the tank. A win or two less would've been cool, sure, but you can't have it all. Being alone in the bottom 3 for the largest possible amount of combinations is pretty good, so I consider the mission a success. Now we just hope the basketball gods smile on us on lottery night.

As for the Bulls pick, I guess we should be mildly disappointed that they won and moved into a tie for 8/9/10? Especially should they lose whatever coinflip shenanigans will go on later? Or should we be happy that that pick has a even bigger chance to convey now? I'm not 100% sure on that one yet.

edit: looked over on the Bulls board and they were pretty mad about winning, so at least that's a good sign.


Some of us were gonna be contented if the bulls pick was a12-14 this year. So if its 8/9/10 then that would be cherry on top

Yes, the expectation was that Bulls would make the playoffs, so it wouldn't even be a lottery pick, it didn't happen and we dated with this #8 for a long time, so that's why it's frustrating that it might become #10 (or lower), however if we look what was thought during the trade deadline, having #8-10 is a pretty good outcome.
Optimus_Steel
RealGM
Posts: 32,579
And1: 8,564
Joined: Sep 16, 2003
Location: Winter Garden, FL
   

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1292 » by Optimus_Steel » Mon May 17, 2021 11:45 am

Wow that worked out very well for us! So am I hearing that right, worst 3 teams have the same odds for #1 pick? If so that was a heck of a final couple of weeks. Presti must be livid lol.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using RealGM mobile app
aka: prorl
User avatar
tiderulz
RealGM
Posts: 31,069
And1: 11,537
Joined: Jun 16, 2010
Location: Atlanta
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1293 » by tiderulz » Mon May 17, 2021 12:10 pm

RookieStar wrote:
The Effect wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Anyhoo... when we went full tank I knew we couldnt reach #1 but #2 and 3 were achievable. We got it so hopefully during the lotto we dont have bad luck and pick 1-3 pls.

I know this is weird to say, but i really hope we get pick 1, 3 or 4.....I dont want the second pick because i know weham, if hes available, they will take Mobley

If we cant get cade, it better be one of the jalens

I too would prefer one of the Jalens iåf Cade is gone BUT if we do get #2 and we get Mobley, thrn I trust our FO took the BPA especially after the process of researching all the picks.

I mean after their surprise but pleasant choice of Chuma Cole and RJ then I think that they really.know what they are doing.

why? do you think they get it right in 2018, taking Bamba over Sexton, Bridges x 2, MPJ, and SGA? (all who to me have proven a lot more than Bamba)
Wingy
General Manager
Posts: 9,798
And1: 1,524
Joined: Feb 15, 2007

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1294 » by Wingy » Mon May 17, 2021 12:22 pm

RookieStar wrote:
Message Boar wrote:
edit: looked over on the Bulls board and they were pretty mad about winning, so at least that's a good sign.


Some of us were gonna be contented if the bulls pick was a12-14 this year. So if its 8/9/10 then that would be cherry on top


Me, a poster enjoying a post-trade visitors pass to your board was/is pissed about last night's Bulls "win." I'm ranting, and raving over there. :banghead: :lol:

Nice work by Orlando on a tank well done, and for trading with a franchise too stupid to lose when you should. Sure, try to make The Putrid Playin. Wasn't psyched about it, but wasn't particularly upset either despite the fact we all knew it so unlikely. Ok, but when that failed and we were eliminated, it should've been easy to lose 1 game. 1 game. A single game. We couldn't even concede that we're so dumb.

We dropped our top 4 odds by 6% in a meaningless "triumph" over the Bucks' Wee Tiny Spark team (that's a weak attempt at a comparable name to Ignite). We played vets like Thad Young in the 4th quarter. Pure idiocy.

All NBA fans will be watching this lottery with great interest. I'm sure I'll be a fairly regular visitor through the lottery, and be checking in from time to time for your opinions, see how WCJ is doing, etc. Good luck, Magic fans.

EDIT: OKC was similarly stupid. At least they had their youngest in the league rookie go off. Our 2nd youngest in the league rookie was real meh, per his rookie year m.o. following a real nice game against a full-strength, actually trying Nets team.
pepe1991
RealGM
Posts: 14,338
And1: 11,743
Joined: Jan 10, 2016
   

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1295 » by pepe1991 » Mon May 17, 2021 12:22 pm

If it's still same old system we would have 46,9% chance for top 3 and 69,5% for top 4 pick.

You miss those things when you suck :lol:
Prediction day after Vuc, Gordon, Evan departure - most fans who are celebrating birth of new rebuild will be crying how rebuild is painful before 2022-23 season ends.
Date of writeup: March 26th, 2021.
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 11,637
And1: 2,572
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1296 » by RookieStar » Mon May 17, 2021 12:38 pm

tiderulz wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
The Effect wrote:I know this is weird to say, but i really hope we get pick 1, 3 or 4.....I dont want the second pick because i know weham, if hes available, they will take Mobley

If we cant get cade, it better be one of the jalens

I too would prefer one of the Jalens iåf Cade is gone BUT if we do get #2 and we get Mobley, thrn I trust our FO took the BPA especially after the process of researching all the picks.

I mean after their surprise but pleasant choice of Chuma Cole and RJ then I think that they really.know what they are doing.

why? do you think they get it right in 2018, taking Bamba over Sexton, Bridges x 2, MPJ, and SGA? (all who to me have proven a lot more than Bamba)


I really have no idea with Bamba or what changed after BUT you have to admit, how many here was scratching their heads when Okeke was picked when NAW was available and expected picked? Or this year when.. surprisingly enough they got the expected Cole and RJ.
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 11,637
And1: 2,572
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1297 » by RookieStar » Mon May 17, 2021 12:40 pm

Wingy wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Message Boar wrote:
edit: looked over on the Bulls board and they were pretty mad about winning, so at least that's a good sign.


Some of us were gonna be contented if the bulls pick was a12-14 this year. So if its 8/9/10 then that would be cherry on top


Me, a poster enjoying a post-trade visitors pass to your board was/is pissed about last night's Bulls "win." I'm ranting, and raving over there. :banghead: :lol:

Nice work by Orlando on a tank well done, and for trading with a franchise too stupid to lose when you should. Sure, try to make The Putrid Playin. Wasn't psyched about it, but wasn't particularly upset either despite the fact we all knew it so unlikely. Ok, but when that failed and we were eliminated, it should've been easy to lose 1 game. 1 game. A single game. We couldn't even concede that we're so dumb.

We dropped our top 4 odds by 6% in a meaningless "triumph" over the Bucks' Wee Tiny Spark team (that's a weak attempt at a comparable name to Ignite). We played vets like Thad Young in the 4th quarter. Pure idiocy.

All NBA fans will be watching this lottery with great interest. I'm sure I'll be a fairly regular visitor through the lottery, and be checking in from time to time for your opinions, see how WCJ is doing, etc. Good luck, Magic fans.

EDIT: OKC was similarly stupid. At least they had their youngest in the league rookie go off. Our 2nd youngest in the league rookie was real meh, per his rookie year m.o. following a real nice game against a full-strength, actually trying Nets team.


Lets not talk about draft spot when the lotto hasnt even bee. determined yet. We are Magic fans so we already expect the worst to hapen to us. It would be pure Magic if every worst case scenario regarding our pick and yours to happen.
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,791
And1: 5,287
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1298 » by drsd » Mon May 17, 2021 1:14 pm

3ddman23 wrote:3rd spot was important to me because I'm cool as long as we stay in the top 5. So even if we fall 2 spots that woukd still keep us in that 5th spot which I think is still solid in tbis draft.

Now dropping 3 or 4 spots and falling to 6-7 would be dreadful and really suck but I feel like being at the 3rd spot the absolute worst luck would habe to happen for us to fall 3-4 spots. So 3 was very important to stay hopefully in the top 5.


There is a 33.02% chance the Magic draft 6 or 7.

..
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,791
And1: 5,287
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1299 » by drsd » Mon May 17, 2021 1:18 pm

RookieStar wrote:We are Magic fans so we already expect the worst to hapen to us.


There is a 7.02% chance the Magic's pick goes 7th. And there is a 20.27% chance the pick does not convey. These are the worst case scenarios for the two picks. Neither is outrageous. And as they are not fully independent (i.e. the Bulls going top-4 would be part of a Magic slide), the worst case is probably in the 1/60 range. (I can't be bothered to calculate that; but it is about in that range).

..
User avatar
KillMonger
RealGM
Posts: 12,325
And1: 6,054
Joined: Oct 13, 2012
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1300 » by KillMonger » Mon May 17, 2021 1:21 pm

Who thought it was a good idea to have the draft lottery june 22nd? If it was up to me i'd have it right before the playoffs started
Image

FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX ....... FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX

Return to Orlando Magic