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Race for Ping Pong Balls

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1321 » by drsd » Tue May 18, 2021 6:47 am

Knightro wrote:Once they traded Vucevic, Fournier, Gordon and Aminu, then yes, they pretty much tanked properly.


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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1322 » by drsd » Tue May 18, 2021 8:18 am

RookieStar wrote:Huh? I thought I read somewhere here saying #1 and #3 odds have a miniscule difference. like if #1 has 200 balls #3 only has 185 or something... or i might have gotten confused.


There is actually the same lottery odds for the worst and 3rd-worst team. Both teams get 140 combinations in the 1001 ball- combination lottery (1 of those is thrown out, so there are only 1000 winning combinations).

The big difference is the floor not the ceiling. The worst team cannot draft worse that 5th. The 3rd worst team cannot draft worse that 7th.

For the worst team, the most likely outcome is to draft 5th. For the 3rd-worst team, the most likely outcome is to draft 6th.


..
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1323 » by RookieStar » Tue May 18, 2021 12:41 pm

drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Huh? I thought I read somewhere here saying #1 and #3 odds have a miniscule difference. like if #1 has 200 balls #3 only has 185 or something... or i might have gotten confused.


There is actually the same lottery odds for the worst and 3rd-worst team. Both teams get 140 combinations in the 1001 ball- combination lottery (1 of those is thrown out, so there are only 1000 winning combinations).

The big difference is the floor not the ceiling. The worst team cannot draft worse that 5th. The 3rd worst team cannot draft worse that 7th.

For the worst team, the most likely outcome is to draft 5th. For the 3rd-worst team, the most likely outcome is to draft 6th.


..


ah got it. thanks.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1324 » by MAGICian619 » Tue May 18, 2021 3:38 pm

RookieStar wrote:
drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Huh? I thought I read somewhere here saying #1 and #3 odds have a miniscule difference. like if #1 has 200 balls #3 only has 185 or something... or i might have gotten confused.


There is actually the same lottery odds for the worst and 3rd-worst team. Both teams get 140 combinations in the 1001 ball- combination lottery (1 of those is thrown out, so there are only 1000 winning combinations).

The big difference is the floor not the ceiling. The worst team cannot draft worse that 5th. The 3rd worst team cannot draft worse that 7th.

For the worst team, the most likely outcome is to draft 5th. For the 3rd-worst team, the most likely outcome is to draft 6th.


..


ah got it. thanks.


http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1325 » by 3ddman23 » Tue May 18, 2021 5:34 pm

Got 3,2,1 on my 3 rolls today on tankathon. So there is hope lol. It's crazy we coukd swing so much.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1326 » by Blue_and_Whte » Wed May 19, 2021 1:20 am

3ddman23 wrote:Got 3,2,1 on my 3 rolls today on tankathon. So there is hope lol. It's crazy we coukd swing so much.

Yeah because I had one drop to 6th and the bulls picking 4th....for the record I immediately re-rolled three times and got
2, 8
3, 8
3, 10
I’m not rolling anymore
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1327 » by Dub_Sax » Wed May 19, 2021 3:15 am

Curious.. better athlete, Tatum or Cunningham?

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1328 » by RookieStar » Wed May 19, 2021 3:31 am

Dub_Sax wrote:Curious.. better athlete, Tatum or Cunningham?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app


Cade never really showed much athelticism during the NCAA, he preferred to play like Luka.. don't get me wrong it was effective though.

Thats why I wanna see Cades atheltic measurements.

Thus based on their 1yr ncaa college games, Tatum showed more athletic butst going to the rim than Cade.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1329 » by ogmagicfan » Wed May 19, 2021 4:21 am

RookieStar wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:Curious.. better athlete, Tatum or Cunningham?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app


Cade never really showed much athelticism during the NCAA, he preferred to play like Luka.. don't get me wrong it was effective though.

Thats why I wanna see Cades atheltic measurements.

Thus based on their 1yr ncaa college games, Tatum showed more athletic butst going to the rim than Cade.


I personally would argue they showed similar athletic abilities. Tatum wasn’t known for jumping out the gym at all.

I feel like Cunningham’s conditioning was somewhat slacking, so I hope to see him in a more cut build with these months btwn being eliminated in the tourney and the next month or so.

I think it’s nothing to worry about. He’s feel for the game is beyond natural. There is a very low chance he drops below 1st pick unless some player demonstrates something amazing in personal team workouts.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1330 » by RookieStar » Wed May 19, 2021 4:53 am

ogmagicfan wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:Curious.. better athlete, Tatum or Cunningham?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app


Cade never really showed much athelticism during the NCAA, he preferred to play like Luka.. don't get me wrong it was effective though.

Thats why I wanna see Cades atheltic measurements.

Thus based on their 1yr ncaa college games, Tatum showed more athletic butst going to the rim than Cade.


I personally would argue they showed similar athletic abilities. Tatum wasn’t known for jumping out the gym at all.

I feel like Cunningham’s conditioning was somewhat slacking, so I hope to see him in a more cut build with these months btwn being eliminated in the tourney and the next month or so.

I think it’s nothing to worry about. He’s feel for the game is beyond natural. There is a very low chance he drops below 1st pick unless some player demonstrates something amazing in personal team workouts.


Sorry, I didnt realize that jumping vertically is the only way we measure athelticism. If so, then yes he didnt jump out of the gym in his Duke career.

However i measure athletic ability including their speed and movement. And the games that I saw of Tatum showed he had nitro button going to the rim. He also showed a little of JIs ability of running around the court in defense.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1331 » by Anti Chalmers » Wed May 19, 2021 5:01 am

Just did 5 spins on tankathon. 4 out of 5 times we lost the picks to bulls lol.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1332 » by drsd » Wed May 19, 2021 7:49 am

Anti Chalmers wrote:Just did 5 spins on tankathon. 4 out of 5 times we lost the picks to bulls lol.


OK, so I did five and got:

Orlando - 6
Chicago - 10

Orlando - 2
Chicago - 10

Orlando - 2
Chicago - 10

Orlando - 1
Chicago - 10

Orlando - 4
Chicago - 11

I am ok with 4 of my 5 spins.



..
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1333 » by jvdas » Wed May 19, 2021 3:04 pm

The waiting time between end of the regular season and the lottery itself is already killing me. Can't wait another month just to find out if this train wreck of a season will give us a good result or not.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1334 » by Creativetran » Wed May 19, 2021 3:30 pm

I just tankathon and my first spin was depressing, our pick dropped to 7 and chicago went to 3rd
2. 7 and 12
3. 5 and 11
4. 1 and 10
5. 5 and 4

Damn lets hope it doesn't follow my luck
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1335 » by MAGICian619 » Wed May 19, 2021 3:52 pm

Read on Twitter


Looks like 5/25 is the day.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1336 » by ogmagicfan » Wed May 19, 2021 4:43 pm

RookieStar wrote:
ogmagicfan wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Cade never really showed much athelticism during the NCAA, he preferred to play like Luka.. don't get me wrong it was effective though.

Thats why I wanna see Cades atheltic measurements.

Thus based on their 1yr ncaa college games, Tatum showed more athletic butst going to the rim than Cade.


I personally would argue they showed similar athletic abilities. Tatum wasn’t known for jumping out the gym at all.

I feel like Cunningham’s conditioning was somewhat slacking, so I hope to see him in a more cut build with these months btwn being eliminated in the tourney and the next month or so.

I think it’s nothing to worry about. He’s feel for the game is beyond natural. There is a very low chance he drops below 1st pick unless some player demonstrates something amazing in personal team workouts.


Sorry, I didnt realize that jumping vertically is the only way we measure athelticism. If so, then yes he didnt jump out of the gym in his Duke career.

However i measure athletic ability including their speed and movement. And the games that I saw of Tatum showed he had nitro button going to the rim. He also showed a little of JIs ability of running around the court in defense.


Tatum’s speed/movement wasn’t that wow worthy in college either though. If anything that was one of his biggest question marks. He got in better conditioning/ability in that once he joined the league and improved, but his dribbling ability and shoot from anywhere is what really opens up the court for him.

I agree that Cunningham’s speed/quickness is the closest thing to a question mark for his game, but saying Tatum showed more of that in college just ain’t true.

Tatum draft profile: https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jayson-tatum/

Quickness: 7

“ He does not have great burst from a stand still position, which causes him to struggle getting to the rim, and he has trouble finishing against top tier length and athleticism”
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1337 » by RookieStar » Wed May 19, 2021 8:31 pm

ogmagicfan wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
ogmagicfan wrote:
I personally would argue they showed similar athletic abilities. Tatum wasn’t known for jumping out the gym at all.

I feel like Cunningham’s conditioning was somewhat slacking, so I hope to see him in a more cut build with these months btwn being eliminated in the tourney and the next month or so.

I think it’s nothing to worry about. He’s feel for the game is beyond natural. There is a very low chance he drops below 1st pick unless some player demonstrates something amazing in personal team workouts.


Sorry, I didnt realize that jumping vertically is the only way we measure athelticism. If so, then yes he didnt jump out of the gym in his Duke career.

However i measure athletic ability including their speed and movement. And the games that I saw of Tatum showed he had nitro button going to the rim. He also showed a little of JIs ability of running around the court in defense.


Tatum’s speed/movement wasn’t that wow worthy in college either though. If anything that was one of his biggest question marks. He got in better conditioning/ability in that once he joined the league and improved, but his dribbling ability and shoot from anywhere is what really opens up the court for him.

I agree that Cunningham’s speed/quickness is the closest thing to a question mark for his game, but saying Tatum showed more of that in college just ain’t true.

Tatum draft profile: https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jayson-tatum/

Quickness: 7

I beg to disagree... I saw him just leave into dusts the college PFs trying to guard him. HE was played like a 4 in Duke but the littel I saw him especially regarding to his quick movements I already thought he would be a SF in the league. Same way I saw Chuma being a 4 in college, I think he is a SF in opposite to J.Johnson and Kuminga... everyone wants to see them as SF but they are 4.
“ He does not have great burst from a stand still position, which causes him to struggle getting to the rim, and he has trouble finishing against top tier length and athleticism”
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1338 » by drsd » Tue May 25, 2021 10:34 am

Today's talkathon pull was 4 and 10. I would be very happy with that.

Just read a quote that there are five players in this draft that score higher than any player of the last draft. I do not believe that to be true. But last year was a 3-player draft and this year looks to be a 4+1 player draft. Anything draft slot in the top-4 is great for Orlando in my option. Then I am very comfortable for Orlando drafting for a good bench player with the Bulls pick.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1339 » by drsd » Tue May 25, 2021 10:43 am

Looking at the SRP, as the Magic will have 13 players under contract after the two FRPs are selected whipping out the available 8M in cap space, signing Mr. #33 could very well be the final move of this off-season.

In that event, someone like DJ Stewart or Herbert Jones might be selected with the intention of making the team and supporting wing depth.

...

But if the goal is to sign a LLE vet and exceed the cap (but stay below the lux-tax line), then there is a huge number of draft-N-stash type players this year. If Şengün slides to #33, he is the no-brainer here. But as other Center thoughts, Filip Petruševor could make sense.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#1340 » by tiderulz » Tue May 25, 2021 12:42 pm

drsd wrote:Looking at the SRP, as the Magic will have 13 players under contract after the two FRPs are selected whipping out the available 8M in cap space, signing Mr. #33 could very well be the final move of this off-season.

In that event, someone like DJ Stewart or Herbert Jones might be selected with the intention of making the team and supporting wing depth.

...

But if the goal is to sign a LLE vet and exceed the cap (but stay below the lux-tax line), then there is a huge number of draft-N-stash type players this year. If Şengün slides to #33, he is the no-brainer here. But as other Center thoughts, Filip Petruševor could make sense.

I'd love to get Herb Jones with our 2nd

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