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Race for Ping Pong Balls

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#21 » by Nyce_1 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 5:25 am

The Real Dalic wrote:
KillMonger wrote:It's definitely a race to the bottom.....if you go by their respective boards....Toronto is definitely tanking.....wizards are definitely tanking.....as are Detroit and Minnesota.....All that and we're getting everybody back it seems next game....everybody's healthy....it feels weird to be conflicted about that...it hurts my soul that i'm actually not entirely happy that everyone is healthy

Don't the Wolves owe their pick to the Warriors? Why would they be tanking? I think they're just that bad.

it's top 3 protected, lol.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#22 » by The Real Dalic » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:13 am

Nyce_1 wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:
KillMonger wrote:It's definitely a race to the bottom.....if you go by their respective boards....Toronto is definitely tanking.....wizards are definitely tanking.....as are Detroit and Minnesota.....All that and we're getting everybody back it seems next game....everybody's healthy....it feels weird to be conflicted about that...it hurts my soul that i'm actually not entirely happy that everyone is healthy

Don't the Wolves owe their pick to the Warriors? Why would they be tanking? I think they're just that bad.

it's top 3 protected, lol.

Is it really? I guess I figured it wasn't protected since it wasn't protected last year.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#23 » by drsd » Tue Apr 6, 2021 8:29 am

With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.

Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).

Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.

Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.


(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))


Toronto won and is now tied with Chicago in the Ws column.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#24 » by drsd » Tue Apr 6, 2021 8:32 am

MasterGMer wrote:..., we are facing Washington and we are very likely to win


The computers like Washington in this game 59/41.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#25 » by basketballRob » Tue Apr 6, 2021 10:29 am

drsd wrote:
MasterGMer wrote:..., we are facing Washington and we are very likely to win


The computers like Washington in this game 59/41.

..
Feels like the final game in the Doncic draft, when we played Washington. They had every reason to win and we had every reason to lose. Washington just came out flat and no matter who we put in, they produced.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#26 » by basketballRob » Tue Apr 6, 2021 10:57 am

drsd wrote:
With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.

Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).

Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.

Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.


(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))


Toronto won and is now tied with Chicago in the Ws column.

..
Toronto's next game is against Chicago. Assuming the Bulls lose tonight against the Pacers, the game Thursday will be for 10th. Maybe Toronto will actually try and win that one.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#27 » by Knightro » Tue Apr 6, 2021 11:29 am

Nyce_1 wrote:it's top 3 protected, lol.


Which, unfortunately for them, means they can’t guarantee they’ll get the pick even if they finish with the worst record.

Plus the pick is completely unprotected next year, so they’re losing a first to Golden State one way or the other.

They got Russell back last night after missing like like 2 months and he scored 25 and they won. Their new coach Chris Finch doesn’t appear to be just some “roll the ball out and let them do whatever because it doesn’t matter” guy.

Because Finch is new and he’s the guy their front office picked to lead what the front office and ownership believes will be a playoff team next year, it definitely feels like Finch is trying to establish good habits and winning rotations now that will benefit the team next year.

Is that smart? Maybe not. But as long as Towns/Russell/Edwards are all healthy, I think they’ll at least stay competitive and win some games down the stretch.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#28 » by Knightro » Tue Apr 6, 2021 11:33 am

The Real Dalic wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:Don't the Wolves owe their pick to the Warriors? Why would they be tanking? I think they're just that bad.

it's top 3 protected, lol.

Is it really? I guess I figured it wasn't protected since it wasn't protected last year.


I don’t think Wolves pick owed to the Warriors ever had anything to do with 2020.

It was always a top 3 protected in 2021, unprotected in 2022 from the start I believe.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#29 » by The Real Dalic » Tue Apr 6, 2021 11:42 am

Knightro wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:it's top 3 protected, lol.

Is it really? I guess I figured it wasn't protected since it wasn't protected last year.


I don’t think Wolves pick word to the Warriors ever had anything to do with 2020.

It was always a top 3 protected in 2021, unprotected in 2022 from the start I believe.

That's right. Forgot the Warriors tanked with all the "injuries" to Steph last season. Biggest brain fart on my part.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#30 » by drsd » Tue Apr 6, 2021 12:06 pm

basketballRob wrote:..
Toronto's next game is against Chicago. Assuming the Bulls lose tonight against the Pacers, the game Thursday will be for 10th. Maybe Toronto will actually try and win that one.[/quote]

If Toronto outpaces Chicago for the 10-seed, every Atlantic team will be playoff or play-in bound. WOW!


..
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#31 » by tiderulz » Tue Apr 6, 2021 12:37 pm

Knightro wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:it's top 3 protected, lol.


Which, unfortunately for them, means they can’t guarantee they’ll get the pick even if they finish with the worst record.

Plus the pick is completely unprotected next year, so they’re losing a first to Golden State one way or the other.

They got Russell back last night after missing like like 2 months and he scored 25 and they won. Their new coach Chris Finch doesn’t appear to be just some “roll the ball out and let them do whatever because it doesn’t matter” guy.

Because Finch is new and he’s the guy their front office picked to lead what the front office and ownership believes will be a playoff team next year, it definitely feels like Finch is trying to establish good habits and winning rotations now that will benefit the team next year.

Is that smart? Maybe not. But as long as Towns/Russell/Edwards are all healthy, I think they’ll at least stay competitive and win some games down the stretch.

I would laugh if they finished with say the 2nd or 3rd pick, thinking they had the pick, and then two teams jumped up in front of them and they then lost it to GSW.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#32 » by zaymon » Tue Apr 6, 2021 3:29 pm

I am less and less interested in 2021 class. Next year seems a lot stronger, i think Weltman wanted to tank next year but injuries forced his hand earlier. Given trade return i am not mad, but i dont care much about losing this year. Cade only obvious great talent but even he has limited ceiling.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#33 » by Last Guardian » Tue Apr 6, 2021 3:35 pm

Cavs won, Pistons won, T-wolves won...but people in game threads still think other teams are trying to lose every game.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#34 » by pepe1991 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 4:51 pm

zaymon wrote:I am less and less interested in 2021 class. Next year seems a lot stronger, i think Weltman wanted to tank next year but injuries forced his hand earlier. Given trade return i am not mad, but i dont care much about losing this year. Cade only obvious great talent but even he has limited ceiling.


Other than transending Tatum and Doncic, there hasn't been any actual legit mega-star in a draft since Embiid and Jokic.

There is simply whole process of: mega overhype before draft, pretending that player in next GOAT, cool off period and forgetting he exists if you are not fan of his team. Pretty much in that category you can list : Sabonis, Trae Young, Simmons, Murray, Ingram, Zion, Morant, Adebayo... And those are actually sucessfull lottery picks. There is army of failures nobody even remembers any more, despite being lottery picks few years ago.
Jackson Hyes , Bamba,Culver, Ntkilina...you forget those guys even exist without googling it.

NBA very good at creating interest, but they don't seem to give a flying f*** about sustainability of "stardom", every year they just shift interest to brand new shiny toy.

Lonzo Ball 2021: 57 000 votes
Lonzo Ball 2020 : 149 000 votes
Lonzo Ball 2019: 980 000 votes

Do we really need to talk about nba fans and public influence, small and big markets any more? Everything is said.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#35 » by jonbob17 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:50 pm

zaymon wrote:I am less and less interested in 2021 class. Next year seems a lot stronger, i think Weltman wanted to tank next year but injuries forced his hand earlier. Given trade return i am not mad, but i dont care much about losing this year. Cade only obvious great talent but even he has limited ceiling.



What is Cade's ceiling?

I strongly disagree with your assessment that they were planning on tanking next year, I am not sure why they would do that AFTER getting Isaac back.

Also disagree with your assessment of next year's draft class. Holmgren looks like the top prospect, and who knows what he is. Looks more like Bol Bol and Poku than a big. KP, with better passing maybe? A very high upside, but a huge amount of risk.

Looks like Bates is 2023
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#36 » by zaymon » Tue Apr 6, 2021 8:01 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
zaymon wrote:I am less and less interested in 2021 class. Next year seems a lot stronger, i think Weltman wanted to tank next year but injuries forced his hand earlier. Given trade return i am not mad, but i dont care much about losing this year. Cade only obvious great talent but even he has limited ceiling.



What is Cade's ceiling?

I strongly disagree with your assessment that they were planning on tanking next year, I am not sure why they would do that AFTER getting Isaac back.

Also disagree with your assessment of next year's draft class. Holmgren looks like the top prospect, and who knows what he is. Looks more like Bol Bol and Poku than a big. KP, with better passing maybe? A very high upside, but a huge amount of risk.

Looks like Bates is 2023


Cade looks like someone like Gordon Hayward. Great player, can play on a contender but not superstar, more like 2-3 option. He can obviously have unusual development curve, but right now he is good not great.

Well if Bates is 2023 that makes it a lot weaker.

Players usually need a year or half to get back to form after ACL. I dont know if Isaac is game changer next year. Hope so but wouldnt bank on it.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#37 » by drsd » Tue Apr 6, 2021 8:29 pm

zaymon wrote:Cade looks like someone like Gordon Hayward. Great player, can play on a contender but not superstar, more like 2-3 option. He can obviously have unusual development curve, but right now he is good not great.

Well if Bates is 2023 that makes it a lot weaker.

Players usually need a year or half to get back to form after ACL. I dont know if Isaac is game changer next year. Hope so but wouldnt bank on it.


For me the player with the most superstar upside is Evan Mobley. But if the Magic draft top-3, I cannot imagine Orlando drafting him.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#38 » by yoyojw17 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 10:38 pm

drsd wrote:
zaymon wrote:Cade looks like someone like Gordon Hayward. Great player, can play on a contender but not superstar, more like 2-3 option. He can obviously have unusual development curve, but right now he is good not great.

Well if Bates is 2023 that makes it a lot weaker.

Players usually need a year or half to get back to form after ACL. I dont know if Isaac is game changer next year. Hope so but wouldnt bank on it.


For me the player with the most superstar upside is Evan Mobley. But if the Magic draft top-3, I cannot imagine Orlando drafting him.

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lol.... but for real though... if he is another tier above the others.... you take him... and make sure to strategically plan the future from there... trades will need to be made
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#39 » by basketballRob » Tue Apr 6, 2021 10:59 pm

Sabonis and Brogdon out for the Pacers, against the Bulls.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#40 » by jonbob17 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 11:32 pm

zaymon wrote:
Cade looks like someone like Gordon Hayward. Great player, can play on a contender but not superstar, more like 2-3 option. He can obviously have unusual development curve, but right now he is good not great.

Well if Bates is 2023 that makes it a lot weaker.

Players usually need a year or half to get back to form after ACL. I dont know if Isaac is game changer next year. Hope so but wouldnt bank on it.


Sure but had we not sold off we would be adding back Isaac to Vuc and either Gordon, or who Gordon was traded for, or a decent FA. That’s not a team tanking.

Sounds to me like you are more describing Cade’s floor. A wing who can initiate, pass, and shoot. That’s also ignoring his defensive potential.

Hayward with better defense, sounds very valuable. I think his ceiling is a lead ball handling 6’7” wing. That plus the qualities above.

Cade is a tier alone in this draft with the highest floor, and high upside, IMO. Mobley may have higher ceiling, but a considerably lower floor.

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