ImageImageImageImage

Race for Ping Pong Balls

Moderators: Howard Mass, UCF, ChosenSavior, Knightro, SOUL, Def Swami, UCFJayBird

Nyce_1
RealGM
Posts: 11,297
And1: 5,117
Joined: Jun 29, 2009
Location: Tampa
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#61 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:13 am

thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?

Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?

correct.
Image
User avatar
thelead
RealGM
Posts: 26,918
And1: 14,785
Joined: Apr 08, 2008
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#62 » by thelead » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:42 am

Nyce_1 wrote:Rockets may pulls this out!

Houston wins. They have enough talent to win a few more. Detroit is the only team we have no chance of catching IMO.
Image
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 10,836
And1: 2,314
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#63 » by RookieStar » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:15 am

Nyce_1 wrote:
thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?

Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?

correct.


So.. what is the best outcome for us? 10th spot but lose the play-in? or just outright missing the playoffins in the 11th spot? They are neck and neck with other play in teams right?
Nyce_1
RealGM
Posts: 11,297
And1: 5,117
Joined: Jun 29, 2009
Location: Tampa
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#64 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 4:18 am

Wednesday 4/7:
Timberwolves 136 - 141 Pacers
Wizards 131 - 116 Magic
Hornets 113 - 102 Thunder
Mavericks 93 - 102 Rockets
Image
Nyce_1
RealGM
Posts: 11,297
And1: 5,117
Joined: Jun 29, 2009
Location: Tampa
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#65 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 4:27 am

RookieStar wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:
thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?

Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?

correct.


So.. what is the best outcome for us? 10th spot but lose the play-in? or just outright missing the playoffins in the 11th spot? They are neck and neck with other play in teams right?
That depends on what you want to obtain and how much anxiety your heart can handle on lotto night:
- guaranteed 2nd pick? Bulls make playoffs so we get 15th pick.
- odds for best 2 picks? Bulls crater to 5th best odds and only we jump, getting #1 & #5; then pray.
- a good 2nd pick to utilize in a trade up deal if our pick isn't where we hope? Bulls miss playoffs then pray.
Image
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 10,836
And1: 2,314
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#66 » by RookieStar » Thu Apr 8, 2021 4:52 am

Nyce_1 wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:correct.


So.. what is the best outcome for us? 10th spot but lose the play-in? or just outright missing the playoffins in the 11th spot? They are neck and neck with other play in teams right?
That depends on what you want to obtain and how much anxiety your heart can handle on lotto night:
- guaranteed 2nd pick? Bulls make playoffs so we get 15th pick.
- odds for best 2 picks? Bulls crater to 5th best odds and only we jump, getting #1 & #5; then pray.
- a good 2nd pick to utilize in a trade up deal if our pick isn't where we hope? Bulls miss playoffs then pray.

so a lot of praying then? gotcha im used to it. lol

seriously though i wonder what majority here prefer?

i myself would settle for the surefire 15th spot cuz, again this might cause friction, but im good with the sg spot and settle for the surefire SFs like wagner kispert zaire even jalen. Our first pick i think we will use either cade suggs or green and thus with mcw cole harris and rj be good already.

besides i think the sgs like moody bouknight keon would get picked first over the sfs.

With the hopeful impending departure of bacon and ennis then we need another one there.
User avatar
Def Swami
Forum Mod - Magic
Forum Mod - Magic
Posts: 24,690
And1: 13,335
Joined: Aug 04, 2008
Location: Escalator to Somewhere?
Contact:
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#67 » by Def Swami » Thu Apr 8, 2021 5:28 am

I go big or go home. I'm pulling for the Bulls to be bad, but not bottom 4 bad.
User avatar
thelead
RealGM
Posts: 26,918
And1: 14,785
Joined: Apr 08, 2008
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#68 » by thelead » Thu Apr 8, 2021 5:34 am

Def Swami wrote:I go big or go home. I'm pulling for the Bulls to be bad, but not bottom 4 bad.

I’m the opposite. I don’t see sure-fire talent outside of the top 5 so I would rather not lose the pick. I would prefer they miss the playoffs and we land a 10-12 pick. There’s no need to worry too much though as they’re not going to be in the bottom ~8 unless Vuc or LaVine goes goes down.
Image
ogmagicfan
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,270
And1: 642
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#69 » by ogmagicfan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 5:52 am

I would prefer the Bulls pick to be atleast top 10, if it falls in the 6-8 range that’d be great. As much as we talk up how some of the young players are doing, we need alot more talent. I’m willing to take the risk.

Also the higher the pick the better we can package the pick and our for a top pick if we don’t get it, or packaging the player drafted in a package for a star after showcasing him for a year or so. I’d hope whoever we draft ends up sticking as a contributor and exceeds expectations. Wouldn’t be surprised to see us trade down and get a future 1st depending on where we end up.
ogmagicfan
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,270
And1: 642
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#70 » by ogmagicfan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 5:55 am

If in a scenario the Magic get the 1st pick but the Bulls move into the top 4, would yall be okay with that or prefer ending up 2-4 but also getting the Bulls pick too?
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 10,836
And1: 2,314
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#71 » by RookieStar » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:16 am

If we wamt the bulls to.be in the top 10 but not top 4 then that must mean they are unlucky enough for a playin but lucky enough to jump up a lot of spots just to stay away from the top 4?
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,268
And1: 5,079
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#72 » by drsd » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:43 am

thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?

Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?


Below is accurate as of 8 April (no stats have changed in the last week and I will update the numbers when they shift)

With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.

Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).

Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.

Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.


(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,268
And1: 5,079
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#73 » by drsd » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:44 am

With the loss to the Wizards:

Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than #5 Washington.
Orlando is now 2 games better than #3 Detroit.

The Magic is most likely to finish as the 4th worst team meaning the most probable draft pick is #6 at 25.74%. The odds to go top-4 would collectively be 48.08%. (( And one of the top-3 at 36.62%, and top-2 at 24.73%. ))
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 10,836
And1: 2,314
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#74 » by RookieStar » Thu Apr 8, 2021 9:16 am

drsd wrote:
thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?

Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?


Below is accurate as of 8 April (no stats have changed in the last week and I will update the numbers when they shift)

With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.

Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).

Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.

Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.


(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))


thanks. nice assesement. Im good with the 9th pick lol
User avatar
MoMM
General Manager
Posts: 9,402
And1: 1,249
Joined: Jan 08, 2002
Location: Brazilian living in Berlin
Contact:
       

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#75 » by MoMM » Thu Apr 8, 2021 9:20 am

I'd hope to get the highest pick instead of #15, if it doesn't convey this year, we can have another chance next year. The difference in talent between 9th and 15th can be huge.

Let's assume we get the 5th pick and Bulls another lottery one, would you trade up using both picks?
User avatar
KillMonger
RealGM
Posts: 11,958
And1: 5,753
Joined: Oct 13, 2012
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#76 » by KillMonger » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:18 am

Image
Image

FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX ....... FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX
basketballRob
RealGM
Posts: 12,957
And1: 5,375
Joined: May 05, 2014
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#77 » by basketballRob » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:28 am

thelead wrote:
Def Swami wrote:I go big or go home. I'm pulling for the Bulls to be bad, but not bottom 4 bad.

I’m the opposite. I don’t see sure-fire talent outside of the top 5 so I would rather not lose the pick. I would prefer they miss the playoffs and we land a 10-12 pick. There’s no need to worry too much though as they’re not going to be in the bottom ~8 unless Vuc or LaVine goes goes down.
I agree. Maybe someone like Moody or Barnes drops to the 10-12 range.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app
basketballRob
RealGM
Posts: 12,957
And1: 5,375
Joined: May 05, 2014
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#78 » by basketballRob » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:35 am

drsd wrote:With the loss to the Wizards:

Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than #5 Washington.
Orlando is now 2 games better than #3 Detroit.

The Magic is most likely to finish as the 4th worst team meaning the most probable draft pick is #6 at 25.74%. The odds to go top-4 would collectively be 48.08%. (( And one of the top-3 at 36.62%, and top-2 at 24.73%. ))
55.2% we'd get at top 5 pick with the 4th worst record.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,268
And1: 5,079
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#79 » by drsd » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:47 am

basketballRob wrote:
drsd wrote:With the loss to the Wizards:

Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than #5 Washington.
Orlando is now 2 games better than #3 Detroit.

The Magic is most likely to finish as the 4th worst team meaning the most probable draft pick is #6 at 25.74%. The odds to go top-4 would collectively be 48.08%. (( And one of the top-3 at 36.62%, and top-2 at 24.73%. ))
55.2% we'd get at top 5 pick with the 4th worst record.


So do you like Jonathan Kuminga at 5 ?


..
pepe1991
RealGM
Posts: 13,896
And1: 11,504
Joined: Jan 10, 2016
   

Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#80 » by pepe1991 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:48 am

i'm watching this Bulls schedule :
Toronto, Atlanta, Minessota, Memphis, Orlando, Memphis, Cavs ,Celtics, Hornets, Miami ( twice) and Knicks

They have 12 winable games in a row, i don't see how they can fall pass 9th worst record.
Prediction day after Vuc, Gordon, Evan departure - most fans who are celebrating birth of new rebuild will be crying how rebuild is painful before 2022-23 season ends.
Date of writeup: March 26th, 2021.

Return to Orlando Magic