RookieStar wrote:drsd wrote:thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
Below is accurate as of 8 April (no stats have changed in the last week and I will update the numbers when they shift)
With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.
Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).
Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.
Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.
(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))
thanks. nice assesement. Im good with the 9th pick lol
Was playing around with Tankathon and it was about as often for Chicago to slide to 10 than stay at 9 (meaning that the collective teams beloww them has a nearly 50% chance to leapfrog the Bulls).
And I got this: