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Race for Ping Pong Balls

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#81 » by drsd » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:49 am

RookieStar wrote:
drsd wrote:
thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?

Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?


Below is accurate as of 8 April (no stats have changed in the last week and I will update the numbers when they shift)

With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.

Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).

Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.

Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.


(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))


thanks. nice assesement. Im good with the 9th pick lol




Was playing around with Tankathon and it was about as often for Chicago to slide to 10 than stay at 9 (meaning that the collective teams beloww them has a nearly 50% chance to leapfrog the Bulls).


And I got this:

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#82 » by basketballRob » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:50 am

drsd wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
drsd wrote:With the loss to the Wizards:

Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than #5 Washington.
Orlando is now 2 games better than #3 Detroit.

The Magic is most likely to finish as the 4th worst team meaning the most probable draft pick is #6 at 25.74%. The odds to go top-4 would collectively be 48.08%. (( And one of the top-3 at 36.62%, and top-2 at 24.73%. ))
55.2% we'd get at top 5 pick with the 4th worst record.


So do you like Jonathan Kuminga at 5 ?


..
I'd probably take him. It's possible another team in the top 5 falls in love with him.

Looks like Otto Porter is wearing a boot.


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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#83 » by basketballRob » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:52 am

pepe1991 wrote:i'm watching this Bulls schedule :
Toronto, Atlanta, Minessota, Memphis, Orlando, Memphis, Cavs ,Celtics, Hornets, Miami ( twice) and Knicks

They have 12 winable games in a row, i don't see how they can fall pass 9th worst record.
They also don't have many nights off. I think they lost some games due to covid early in the year. They'll be playing the 5th game in 7 nights when they play us.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#84 » by pepe1991 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:53 am

i rolled thankaton 5 times, Bulls pick never leapfrogged, but Magic never got inside top 3 pick. Half of the times Magic got 6th or 7th pick lol
Prediction day after Vuc, Gordon, Evan departure - most fans who are celebrating birth of new rebuild will be crying how rebuild is painful before 2022-23 season ends.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#85 » by basketballRob » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:58 am

I'm worried about our game with the Pacers. If Turner, Sabonis, and Brogdon are out, we'll likely win.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#86 » by MoMM » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:18 pm

It a waste of time to keep rolling the dice on Tankathon.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#87 » by Knightro » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:52 pm

basketballRob wrote:I'm worried about our game with the Pacers. If Turner, Sabonis, and Brogdon are out, we'll likely win.


I mean the Pacers just scored 141 without any of those guys against a team that isn’t good, but was still trying to win.

If Clifford is going to commit to playing this many young guys and especially sticking mostly young guys down the stretch, the Magic’s defense will remain very bad most nights and they’ll struggle to win games.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#88 » by UCFJayBird » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:01 pm

Question for those paying more attention to the prospects this year (i haven't done any research yet, watched very little college this year):

Would you be happier with a result where both Orlando and Chicago got into the Top 3 (so we didn't get their pick), or would you be happier if neither got in and Orlando wound up with say the 5th pick and Chicago the 9th? So Top 3 pick OR 5 & 9.

So basically asking is this draft going to be very top heavy (I think i've heard this) or is it deep enough that multiple lottery picks is better than a Top 3 pick.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#89 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:08 pm

UCFJayBird wrote:Question for those paying more attention to the prospects this year (i haven't done any research yet, watched very little college this year):

Would you be happier with a result where both Orlando and Chicago got into the Top 3 (so we didn't get their pick), or would you be happier if neither got in and Orlando wound up with say the 5th pick and Chicago the 9th? So Top 3 pick OR 5 & 9.

So basically asking is this draft going to be very top heavy (I think i've heard this) or is it deep enough that multiple lottery picks is better than a Top 3 pick.

I want whatever options gets us Cade Cunningham. I'd happily defer the Chi pick to next season if it meant we got Cade within the top 3. I'd also take our #5 pick and use the #9 to move up for Cade.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#90 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:51 pm

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Tanks are revving up.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#91 » by RookieStar » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:51 pm

UCFJayBird wrote:Question for those paying more attention to the prospects this year (i haven't done any research yet, watched very little college this year):

Would you be happier with a result where both Orlando and Chicago got into the Top 3 (so we didn't get their pick), or would you be happier if neither got in and Orlando wound up with say the 5th pick and Chicago the 9th? So Top 3 pick OR 5 & 9.

So basically asking is this draft going to be very top heavy (I think i've heard this) or is it deep enough that multiple lottery picks is better than a Top 3 pick.


Go top 3 this draft. For me, next year isn't as heavy or good as this draft. Also, the top guys on next years draft are PF/C whereas the top3 now are wings.

Besides, this might just be me but next season when all is more or less back to normal, I dont see CHI also being that dangerous in a reloaded EAST. In fact, unless they make major moves, I think our roster with Cade beats theirs lol
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#92 » by Def Swami » Thu Apr 8, 2021 8:36 pm

UCFJayBird wrote:Question for those paying more attention to the prospects this year (i haven't done any research yet, watched very little college this year):

Would you be happier with a result where both Orlando and Chicago got into the Top 3 (so we didn't get their pick), or would you be happier if neither got in and Orlando wound up with say the 5th pick and Chicago the 9th? So Top 3 pick OR 5 & 9.

So basically asking is this draft going to be very top heavy (I think i've heard this) or is it deep enough that multiple lottery picks is better than a Top 3 pick.

Top 3 pick easy.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#93 » by Nyce_1 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 9:37 pm

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#94 » by pepe1991 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:28 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:
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Bulls have such an easy schedule that i find "strenght of schedule" data very missleading. They are not clear underdog to lose in any of future 12 games they are going to play.

Only hard part of the schedule happends to be near end, when most teams will just sit out guys for playoffs.
Prediction day after Vuc, Gordon, Evan departure - most fans who are celebrating birth of new rebuild will be crying how rebuild is painful before 2022-23 season ends.
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#95 » by Knightro » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:28 pm

Games of Interest Tonight

-21 win Bulls at 20 win Raptors
-18 win Cavs at 20 win Thunder
-15 win Pistons at 22 win Kings
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#96 » by RookieStar » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:44 pm

Knightro wrote:Games of Interest Tonight

-21 win Bulls at 20 win Raptors
-18 win Cavs at 20 win Thunder
-15 win Pistons at 22 win Kings


I assume Birch isnt playing yet?

WEll Vuc can finally feast against the Raps
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#97 » by penny_nz » Thu Apr 8, 2021 11:53 pm

Knightro wrote:Games of Interest Tonight

-21 win Bulls at 20 win Raptors
-18 win Cavs at 20 win Thunder
-15 win Pistons at 22 win Kings


Those are all win win games really, we either have a tanking team catching us up, or teams increasing the gap above us.

Saying that, hoping for Raps, Cavs, Kings (I don't think there's any hope of out tanking Detroit)
I still believe in Magic!
Okeke / Isaac / WCJ front court for the future.
Ping pong ball god's, please give us Cade!
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#98 » by basketballRob » Fri Apr 9, 2021 12:21 am

How long can you be out with a concussion? Watching the OKC and Cavs game, and Jarrett Allen has been out 6 games, Dort out 6 games, and one other guy from OKC out, all with concussions.

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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#99 » by RookieStar » Fri Apr 9, 2021 12:23 am

basketballRob wrote:How long can you be out with a concussion? Watching the OKC and Cavs game, and Jarrett Allen has been out 6 games, Dort out 6 games, and one other guy from OKC out, all with concussions.

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I dunno but wasnt AG out for almost 2-3 weeks when he got hit and went to that protocol the league mandated for everyone?
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Re: Race for Ping Pong Balls 

Post#100 » by basketballRob » Fri Apr 9, 2021 12:25 am

RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:How long can you be out with a concussion? Watching the OKC and Cavs game, and Jarrett Allen has been out 6 games, Dort out 6 games, and one other guy from OKC out, all with concussions.

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I dunno but wasnt AG out for almost 2-3 weeks when he got hit and went to that protocol the league mandated for everyone?
I thought it was only a couple games.

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