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How will the draft lottery shake out?

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How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#1 » by Bensational » Mon May 3, 2021 12:23 am

Since we’re talking about potential lottery results and the value of positioning, why don’t we start a challenge where everyone tries to predict which lottery positions will place where when it’s all said and done.

After the results we can compare and see who was closest.

To me this is a bit of fun, but it should also help to prove a point about the difficulties in planning for results based on lottery odds.

Try not to think of which teams win, but which draft slot wins. #5 moves to #1 etc.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#2 » by drsd » Mon May 3, 2021 12:32 am

I like Orlando to finish at the 3rd worst team and Chicago as the 7th worst.

This could result in the 4th and 8th sections. I will go with that.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#3 » by p0peye » Mon May 3, 2021 1:48 pm

I predict at least two teams that have less than 10% chance winning to be jumping into top 4 slots, pushing tanking teams further down.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#4 » by thelead » Mon May 3, 2021 1:56 pm

Tonight's game will likely have a huge impact on this. We shall see what happens tonight.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#5 » by HayKee » Mon May 3, 2021 4:31 pm

thelead wrote:Tonight's game will likely have a huge impact on this. We shall see what happens tonight.

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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#6 » by Bensational » Mon May 3, 2021 7:29 pm

thelead wrote:Tonight's game will likely have a huge impact on this. We shall see what happens tonight.


How so?

Do you see Orlando and Detroit landing in set positions for the lottery and one of those positions being the one that jumps?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#7 » by thelead » Mon May 3, 2021 7:58 pm

Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:Tonight's game will likely have a huge impact on this. We shall see what happens tonight.


How so?

Do you see Orlando and Detroit landing in set positions for the lottery and one of those positions being the one that jumps?

If we win, we'll be tied with with OKC and Cleveland for wins. With any other win, we could finalize at 6 instead of 2. How could that not be huge?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#8 » by Bensational » Mon May 3, 2021 9:45 pm

thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:Tonight's game will likely have a huge impact on this. We shall see what happens tonight.


How so?

Do you see Orlando and Detroit landing in set positions for the lottery and one of those positions being the one that jumps?

If we win, we'll be tied with with OKC and Cleveland for wins. With any other win, we could finalize at 6 instead of 2. How could that not be huge?


It changes team positions, but that only matters if you have a preferred positioning in mind.

Who will win the lottery? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or other?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#9 » by thelead » Mon May 3, 2021 9:46 pm

Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
How so?

Do you see Orlando and Detroit landing in set positions for the lottery and one of those positions being the one that jumps?

If we win, we'll be tied with with OKC and Cleveland for wins. With any other win, we could finalize at 6 instead of 2. How could that not be huge?


It changes team positions, but that only matters if you have a preferred positioning in mind.

Who will win the lottery? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or other?

I want a top 3 pick but wouldn't call this tanking exhibit a failure if we land a top 5 pick. Anything less would be an absolute waste of a year IMO. The lotto is a game of probability. If we end up with the 6th worst record instead of the 2nd, the chance of staying in the top 5 get a lot tougher.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#10 » by Bensational » Mon May 3, 2021 9:58 pm

thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:If we win, we'll be tied with with OKC and Cleveland for wins. With any other win, we could finalize at 6 instead of 2. How could that not be huge?


It changes team positions, but that only matters if you have a preferred positioning in mind.

Who will win the lottery? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or other?

I want a top 3 pick but wouldn't call this tanking exhibit a failure if we land a top 5 pick. Anything less would be an absolute waste of a year IMO.


That’s not what I’m asking though. Having high expectations of landing a top 3 pick requires having high expectations of the results of a lottery. Securing top 3 odds doesn’t secure you a top 3 result even if it’s best odds, it just secured you a higher floor.

Last year #2 jumped to #1
#1 fell to #2
#8 jumped to #3
#7 jumped to #4
and #3 and #4 fell to #5 and #6 respectively.

See what I mean? Securing top 4 odds did nothing for Cleveland and Atlanta.

So fretting over where we end up position wise is frivolous until we know which slot has the winning ticket - and that won’t be until after the lottery.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#11 » by Ducklett » Mon May 3, 2021 10:30 pm

Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
It changes team positions, but that only matters if you have a preferred positioning in mind.

Who will win the lottery? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or other?

I want a top 3 pick but wouldn't call this tanking exhibit a failure if we land a top 5 pick. Anything less would be an absolute waste of a year IMO.


That’s not what I’m asking though. Having high expectations of landing a top 3 pick requires having high expectations of the results of a lottery. Securing top 3 odds doesn’t secure you a top 3 result even if it’s best odds, it just secured you a higher floor.

Last year #2 jumped to #1
#1 fell to #2
#8 jumped to #3
#7 jumped to #4
and #3 and #4 fell to #5 and #6 respectively.

See what I mean? Securing top 4 odds did nothing for Cleveland and Atlanta.

So fretting over where we end up position wise is frivolous until we know which slot has the winning ticket - and that won’t be until after the lottery.


In a top 5 draft being 3 and having good odds of staying in the top 5 is pretty important. We did this song and dance when we picked 6th in back to back top 5 drafts... You guys never learn lol
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#12 » by thelead » Mon May 3, 2021 10:36 pm

Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
It changes team positions, but that only matters if you have a preferred positioning in mind.

Who will win the lottery? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or other?

I want a top 3 pick but wouldn't call this tanking exhibit a failure if we land a top 5 pick. Anything less would be an absolute waste of a year IMO.


That’s not what I’m asking though. Having high expectations of landing a top 3 pick requires having high expectations of the results of a lottery. Securing top 3 odds doesn’t secure you a top 3 result even if it’s best odds, it just secured you a higher floor.

Last year #2 jumped to #1
#1 fell to #2
#8 jumped to #3
#7 jumped to #4
and #3 and #4 fell to #5 and #6 respectively.

See what I mean? Securing top 4 odds did nothing for Cleveland and Atlanta.

So fretting over where we end up position wise is frivolous until we know which slot has the winning ticket - and that won’t be until after the lottery.

Probabilities man. Just because something happened last year doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Finishing last GAURANTEES a top 5 pick. Finishing 2nd means that you have an 80% chance of getting a top 5 pick. Finishing 6th only gives you a 37% chance of landing in the top 4 (with a 0% chance of landing the 5th pick).

If we win tonight, you can say goodbye to an 80% chance of a top 5 pick... with the chances falling all the way to 37%. Which odds would you prefer after this decade long of sucking?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#13 » by Bensational » Mon May 3, 2021 11:34 pm

thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:I want a top 3 pick but wouldn't call this tanking exhibit a failure if we land a top 5 pick. Anything less would be an absolute waste of a year IMO.


That’s not what I’m asking though. Having high expectations of landing a top 3 pick requires having high expectations of the results of a lottery. Securing top 3 odds doesn’t secure you a top 3 result even if it’s best odds, it just secured you a higher floor.

Last year #2 jumped to #1
#1 fell to #2
#8 jumped to #3
#7 jumped to #4
and #3 and #4 fell to #5 and #6 respectively.

See what I mean? Securing top 4 odds did nothing for Cleveland and Atlanta.

So fretting over where we end up position wise is frivolous until we know which slot has the winning ticket - and that won’t be until after the lottery.

Probabilities man. Just because something happened last year doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Finishing last GAURANTEES a top 5 pick. Finishing 2nd means that you have an 80% chance of getting a top 5 pick. Finishing 6th only gives you a 37% chance of landing in the top 4 (with a 0% chance of landing the 5th pick).

If we win tonight, you can say goodbye to an 80% chance of a top 5 pick... with the chances falling all the way to 37%. Which odds would you prefer after this decade long of sucking?


Of course I want us to lose tonight and secure 2nd last overall. I’m not making a case against trying to secure odds, just showing that the probabilities won’t help in retrospect if we manage to come 2nd last but one or more of the teams from 3-6 jump up to first.

Then it becomes a retrospective game of “wow, if we’d won just one more game we’d be picking #1 right now”, and then we question if we should have won that game against Detroit instead of flat out tanking it away.

See what I mean? There’s a very good chance we’ll be disappointed in our results even with 2nd best odds. I’m just preparing myself for it now accepting that the lottery and even team results are outside of my control.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#14 » by KillMonger » Tue May 4, 2021 1:16 am

at this point? with us outside the top 5 in role player territory
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#15 » by Anti Chalmers » Tue May 4, 2021 1:23 am

I just hope for top 5. Maybe package our bulls pick to move up. If we picks in the 7-10th range, I might be done with this franchise for awhile.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#16 » by Message Boar » Tue May 4, 2021 11:46 am

Probably poorly.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#17 » by BCS » Tue May 4, 2021 12:01 pm

Bensational wrote:
thelead wrote:
Bensational wrote:
That’s not what I’m asking though. Having high expectations of landing a top 3 pick requires having high expectations of the results of a lottery. Securing top 3 odds doesn’t secure you a top 3 result even if it’s best odds, it just secured you a higher floor.

Last year #2 jumped to #1
#1 fell to #2
#8 jumped to #3
#7 jumped to #4
and #3 and #4 fell to #5 and #6 respectively.

See what I mean? Securing top 4 odds did nothing for Cleveland and Atlanta.

So fretting over where we end up position wise is frivolous until we know which slot has the winning ticket - and that won’t be until after the lottery.

Probabilities man. Just because something happened last year doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Finishing last GAURANTEES a top 5 pick. Finishing 2nd means that you have an 80% chance of getting a top 5 pick. Finishing 6th only gives you a 37% chance of landing in the top 4 (with a 0% chance of landing the 5th pick).

If we win tonight, you can say goodbye to an 80% chance of a top 5 pick... with the chances falling all the way to 37%. Which odds would you prefer after this decade long of sucking?


Of course I want us to lose tonight and secure 2nd last overall. I’m not making a case against trying to secure odds, just showing that the probabilities won’t help in retrospect if we manage to come 2nd last but one or more of the teams from 3-6 jump up to first.

Then it becomes a retrospective game of “wow, if we’d won just one more game we’d be picking #1 right now”, and then we question if we should have won that game against Detroit instead of flat out tanking it away.

See what I mean? There’s a very good chance we’ll be disappointed in our results even with 2nd best odds. I’m just preparing myself for it now accepting that the lottery and even team results are outside of my control.
I wouldn't. If we finish 2nd and end up having 4 teams jump us and end up with the 6th pick. That is just bad luck. The team did their job securing best odds and I can't blame them for bad luck just like I won't praise them for finishing 6th and winning the lottery on great luck because at the end of the day they did not do their part to secure the best chances.

To the question though, statistically 2 of the top 4 will get a top 4 pick and the other 2 teams are 5 or worse. That is the more likely scenario. But maybe this year 3 of the top 4 get a top pick, maybe only one...doesn't change the fact that you try and secure highest probability.

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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#18 » by Bensational » Tue May 4, 2021 12:41 pm

BCS wrote:If we finish 2nd and end up having 4 teams jump us and end up with the 6th pick. That is just bad luck. The team did their job securing best odds and I can't blame them for bad luck just like I won't praise them for finishing 6th and winning the lottery on great luck because at the end of the day they did not do their part to secure the best chances.

To the question though, statistically 2 of the top 4 will get a top 4 pick and the other 2 teams are 5 or worse. That is the more likely scenario. But maybe this year 3 of the top 4 get a top pick, maybe only one...doesn't change the fact that you try and secure highest probability.


It's such a weird concept that a team could be blamed for not sabotaging themselves enough to earn top odds, but yes, I agree the team could have done more by fielding an entire g-league team post ASW.

But in a draft which is considered a 'top 5', last/first is the only lottery position which has secured one of those top 5 spots, in the event all top 4 lottery picks are jumps. So last place is the only position that can have claimed a secure spot in the draft.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#19 » by Skin » Tue May 4, 2021 5:34 pm

Ben, if you want to prepare yourself, then instead of hoping that we beat the odds, you should be honest with yourself and just follow the odds. The Magic are looking at a pick in the 6-8 range because we are 100% winning more games.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#20 » by zaymon » Tue May 4, 2021 8:42 pm

Skin wrote:Ben, if you want to prepare yourself, then instead of hoping that we beat the odds, you should be honest with yourself and just follow the odds. The Magic are looking at a pick in the 6-8 range because we are 100% winning more games.


Everybody are looking at those odds. I dont think you followed closely enough. Going by the odds every team should look at picks 5-8, even Rockets.
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