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How will the draft lottery shake out?

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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#21 » by Bensational » Tue May 4, 2021 9:22 pm

Skin wrote:Ben, if you want to prepare yourself, then instead of hoping that we beat the odds, you should be honest with yourself and just follow the odds. The Magic are looking at a pick in the 6-8 range because we are 100% winning more games.


You realise every lottery team will be hoping to 'beat the odds' to win it, right? When the top 'odds' are an 85% chance of not winning the lottery, there's still a lot of room left to hoping things go right.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#22 » by Bensational » Tue May 4, 2021 9:24 pm

Actually, BCS made an interesting point and good question:

Would you prefer the Magic lose out completely and secure last/2nd last, but then watch 2-3 other teams jump in front of them in the draft and end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to win some stupid games and finish 5th or 6th, but then jump to a 1-3 spot?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#23 » by Skin » Tue May 4, 2021 10:05 pm

Bensational wrote:Actually, BCS made an interesting point and good question:

Would you prefer the Magic lose out completely and secure last/2nd last, but then watch 2-3 other teams jump in front of them in the draft and end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to win some stupid games and finish 5th or 6th, but then jump to a 1-3 spot?

Rather be the worst team in the league and have 100% chance of choosing in the Top 5.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#24 » by jvdas » Tue May 4, 2021 10:05 pm

Bensational wrote:Actually, BCS made an interesting point and good question:

Would you prefer the Magic lose out completely and secure last/2nd last, but then watch 2-3 other teams jump in front of them in the draft and end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to win some stupid games and finish 5th or 6th, but then jump to a 1-3 spot?


Doesn't matter at all.

However we make it happen as long as we jump/stay in the top 4, we're fine. As I said before, it's Green or bust for me and we only have a chance getting him in of those 4 top spots.

This would be an absolute neckbreaker not getting a top 4 selection this draft with our pick, the Bulls pick would just be a nice addition.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#25 » by Skin » Tue May 4, 2021 10:05 pm

Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:Ben, if you want to prepare yourself, then instead of hoping that we beat the odds, you should be honest with yourself and just follow the odds. The Magic are looking at a pick in the 6-8 range because we are 100% winning more games.


You realise every lottery team will be hoping to 'beat the odds' to win it, right? When the top 'odds' are an 85% chance of not winning the lottery, there's still a lot of room left to hoping things go right.

We are NOT doing ourselves ANY favors by winning. Period. It's just worsening our odds.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#26 » by basketballRob » Tue May 4, 2021 10:16 pm

Unfortunately we have to wait until June 22nd for the lottery. It's going to be a long 7 weeks.

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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#27 » by Bensational » Tue May 4, 2021 11:56 pm

Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:Actually, BCS made an interesting point and good question:

Would you prefer the Magic lose out completely and secure last/2nd last, but then watch 2-3 other teams jump in front of them in the draft and end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to win some stupid games and finish 5th or 6th, but then jump to a 1-3 spot?

Rather be the worst team in the league and have 100% chance of choosing in the Top 5.


So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#28 » by Bensational » Wed May 5, 2021 12:01 am

Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:Ben, if you want to prepare yourself, then instead of hoping that we beat the odds, you should be honest with yourself and just follow the odds. The Magic are looking at a pick in the 6-8 range because we are 100% winning more games.


You realise every lottery team will be hoping to 'beat the odds' to win it, right? When the top 'odds' are an 85% chance of not winning the lottery, there's still a lot of room left to hoping things go right.

We are NOT doing ourselves ANY favors by winning. Period. It's just worsening our odds.


But if the winning ticket comes from the 4-6 spot and we happen to be there, we would have inadvertently done ourselves a favour by winning games which seemed meaningless at the time and damaging to our chances - but in the end they didn’t have that effect.

Can you see how those results still exist in that weird state of flux?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#29 » by KillMonger » Wed May 5, 2021 12:09 am

Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:Actually, BCS made an interesting point and good question:

Would you prefer the Magic lose out completely and secure last/2nd last, but then watch 2-3 other teams jump in front of them in the draft and end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to win some stupid games and finish 5th or 6th, but then jump to a 1-3 spot?

Rather be the worst team in the league and have 100% chance of choosing in the Top 5.


So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

i'd take that with a smile on my face because there is a sheer cliff after the 5th pick
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#30 » by thelead » Wed May 5, 2021 12:14 am

KillMonger wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:Rather be the worst team in the league and have 100% chance of choosing in the Top 5.


So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

i'd take that with a smile on my face because there is a sheer cliff after the 5th pick

I'm not sure why people don't understand the dropoff from Kuminga to everyone else... Kuminga's efficiency is what I question but at 18 years old, he played against grown men in the G-League and put up 16ppg/7rpg/3apg/1spg/1bpg... and he's a freak athlete.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#31 » by KillMonger » Wed May 5, 2021 12:24 am

thelead wrote:
KillMonger wrote:
Bensational wrote:
So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

i'd take that with a smile on my face because there is a sheer cliff after the 5th pick

I'm not sure why people don't understand the dropoff from Kuminga to everyone else... Kuminga's efficiency is what I question but at 18 years old, he played against grown men in the G-League and put up 16ppg/7rpg/3apg/1spg/1bpg... and he's a freak athlete.

that's what i'm saying....he's the youngest out of the top 5 but not body-wise....like you said the efficiency isn't great but what he has shown speaks volumes for me....to me he has two-way potential and has shown ability to score at all 3 levels...plus he's displayed some IQ with some of the reads he's made with his passing...the cherry on top his that he's also an above the rim athlete....it's not about what he is now it's what he could be and if he can put it all together he could be a perennial all-star
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#32 » by Skin » Wed May 5, 2021 5:35 am

Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:Actually, BCS made an interesting point and good question:

Would you prefer the Magic lose out completely and secure last/2nd last, but then watch 2-3 other teams jump in front of them in the draft and end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to win some stupid games and finish 5th or 6th, but then jump to a 1-3 spot?

Rather be the worst team in the league and have 100% chance of choosing in the Top 5.


So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

That is certainly not the offer. That's the worst of all options... and that's a great place to be in.

Right now we're in 6th place and aggressively looking to win more games down the stretch. At 6th we have a 10% chance or less at landing a Top 4 pick. We have 0% chance at landing the 5th pick and our highest odds are a near 30% chance at landing the 7th pick. Next highest is 8th with a 20% chance.

WE BLEW IT. WE ABSOLUTELY BOTCHED OUR TANK. WE WILL NOT GET ONE OF THE STARS IN THIS DRAFT.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#33 » by Bensational » Wed May 5, 2021 7:53 am

Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:Rather be the worst team in the league and have 100% chance of choosing in the Top 5.


So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

That is certainly not the offer. That's the worst of all options... and that's a great place to be in.

Right now we're in 6th place and aggressively looking to win more games down the stretch. At 6th we have a 10% chance or less at landing a Top 4 pick. We have 0% chance at landing the 5th pick and our highest odds are a near 30% chance at landing the 7th pick. Next highest is 8th with a 20% chance.

WE BLEW IT. WE ABSOLUTELY BOTCHED OUR TANK. WE WILL NOT GET ONE OF THE STARS IN THIS DRAFT.


How can you claim that when the results aren’t even in? If we win the lottery from 6th place, do we concede that winning extra games against the logic of losing more for better odds was actually the correct approach?
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#34 » by Skin » Wed May 5, 2021 8:24 am

Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:
So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

That is certainly not the offer. That's the worst of all options... and that's a great place to be in.

Right now we're in 6th place and aggressively looking to win more games down the stretch. At 6th we have a 10% chance or less at landing a Top 4 pick. We have 0% chance at landing the 5th pick and our highest odds are a near 30% chance at landing the 7th pick. Next highest is 8th with a 20% chance.

WE BLEW IT. WE ABSOLUTELY BOTCHED OUR TANK. WE WILL NOT GET ONE OF THE STARS IN THIS DRAFT.


How can you claim that when the results aren’t even in? If we win the lottery from 6th place, do we concede that winning extra games against the logic of losing more for better odds was actually the correct approach?

How are you not disgusted? It's like any glimmer of hope is good enough for you to justify. If we had a 1% chance would you be here saying, how can you claim we won't get the number one pick if it didn't happen?

We totally messed up our chances of landing a bona-fide top prospect. In a year where the FO did enough to commit to a tank, the rest of the team failed to execute their vision.

We suffered yet another season as loyal fans and it's truly pathetic that after a decade we have not a single star player.

We're clearly in a new era but I fear we may end up recycling through the next 8 years with good but not great players who will lead us no where. Same path, different names. This draft was supposed to be the year where we get a star.

To come away with such a pathetic season and not get one should disgust us all. There is NOTHING gained by winning these meaningless games.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#35 » by p0peye » Wed May 5, 2021 9:16 am

Hey, good news is that there is usually high probability to have at least two busts in top 5. All we need to do is convince players to lose, secure top 5 pick and avoid busts.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#36 » by Bensational » Wed May 5, 2021 10:07 am

Skin wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Skin wrote:That is certainly not the offer. That's the worst of all options... and that's a great place to be in.

Right now we're in 6th place and aggressively looking to win more games down the stretch. At 6th we have a 10% chance or less at landing a Top 4 pick. We have 0% chance at landing the 5th pick and our highest odds are a near 30% chance at landing the 7th pick. Next highest is 8th with a 20% chance.

WE BLEW IT. WE ABSOLUTELY BOTCHED OUR TANK. WE WILL NOT GET ONE OF THE STARS IN THIS DRAFT.


How can you claim that when the results aren’t even in? If we win the lottery from 6th place, do we concede that winning extra games against the logic of losing more for better odds was actually the correct approach?

How are you not disgusted? It's like any glimmer of hope is good enough for you to justify. If we had a 1% chance would you be here saying, how can you claim we won't get the number one pick if it didn't happen?

We totally messed up our chances of landing a bona-fide top prospect. In a year where the FO did enough to commit to a tank, the rest of the team failed to execute their vision.

We suffered yet another season as loyal fans and it's truly pathetic that after a decade we have not a single star player.

We're clearly in a new era but I fear we may end up recycling through the next 8 years with good but not great players who will lead us no where. Same path, different names. This draft was supposed to be the year where we get a star.

To come away with such a pathetic season and not get one should disgust us all. There is NOTHING gained by winning these meaningless games.


I’m not disgusted because I know there is still a lottery to play out. Sure I’m disappointed we’ve cost ourselves prime odds, but we still have top 6 odds of a top 4 pick at the least.

There’s plenty of time to be angry after the results are in. May as well delay it until then, especially whilst there still is a chance, otherwise you’re just making yourself suffer extra.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#37 » by drsd » Wed May 5, 2021 10:37 am

Bensational wrote:Would you prefer the Magic .... end up 4th/5th?

or,

Would you prefer the Magic to .... jump to a 1-3 spot?



When one distils the question to the above, the answer is obvious. But I will add that the Magic is truly "developing players". How can that be a bad thing?


..
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#38 » by Tarheel » Wed May 5, 2021 10:49 am

What else do you expect the team to do?

They're rolling out G Leaguers, 10 day signees and rookies - sitting out their starters the entire fourth quarter (except Mo Wagner) against Detroit.

They're obviously trying pretty damn hard organisationally to lose. If the odd young player comes through with a buzzer beater or a big game, great. 9 times out of 10 they won't.

I categorically disagree with telling players that games don't matter or to lose (as it appears Detroit did at the end of the game). I want the players on the floor to try and win every game.
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#39 » by pepe1991 » Wed May 5, 2021 10:54 am

thelead wrote:
KillMonger wrote:
Bensational wrote:
So you’d take the certainty of being able to pick Kuminga over Cade/Suggs/Green?

Because that’s the offer here.

i'd take that with a smile on my face because there is a sheer cliff after the 5th pick

I'm not sure why people don't understand the dropoff from Kuminga to everyone else... Kuminga's efficiency is what I question but at 18 years old, he played against grown men in the G-League and put up 16ppg/7rpg/3apg/1spg/1bpg... and he's a freak athlete.


Cam Reddissh, RHJ, MKG, Jarret Culver, Stanley Johnson, Josh Smith, Justice Winslow, Josh Jackson , every draft has it's own version of " great athlete, great size , high potential, just needs to figure out shooting" ... to find him rotting on bench years later because he still can't shoot.
Some kids flat out have better feeling of distance, some don't . Very, very few basketball players "learn" how to shoot without any previous shooting touch.
Kuminga falls in that " no basketball touch whatsoever" category.

He can't shoot from any range. He is closer to his jumpshot to MKG than he is to any funcional rotation , starting SF in nba today.

I liked Kuminga before G league, i still think he can become nice defensive SF-PF. But on this team? It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Guy shot 24% for 3 in G league on 62,5% FTs

Can be too quick with the trigger and settles for a lot of contested threes. Shot selection overall can improve and although he’s been efficient from the floor, he’s very high-volume. Attempted 17.2 shots per game over the Nike EYBL in 2019 … Can improve consistency as a 3PT shooter. Shot 29.8% 3PT% at 7.8 attempts per game over the Nike EYBL in 2019 … Can improve as a free throw shooter. Shot 55.2% FT% over the Nike EYBL in 2018 and 62.7% FT% in 2019 …


There has not been single competition where he showed he can shoot

And also, if he is as trigger happy as most scouts fear, you can easly end up looking modern day Josh Smith. Player that thought he gets wide open looks because he is soo smooth so he creates that much separation ( reality: defenses ignored him because he was terrible shooter who thought he can shoot )
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Re: How will the draft lottery shake out? 

Post#40 » by yoyojw17 » Wed May 5, 2021 4:57 pm

KillMonger wrote:
thelead wrote:
KillMonger wrote:i'd take that with a smile on my face because there is a sheer cliff after the 5th pick

I'm not sure why people don't understand the dropoff from Kuminga to everyone else... Kuminga's efficiency is what I question but at 18 years old, he played against grown men in the G-League and put up 16ppg/7rpg/3apg/1spg/1bpg... and he's a freak athlete.

that's what i'm saying....he's the youngest out of the top 5 but not body-wise....like you said the efficiency isn't great but what he has shown speaks volumes for me....to me he has two-way potential and has shown the ability to score at all 3 levels...plus he's displayed some IQ with some of the reads he's made with his passing...the cherry on top his that he's also an above the rim athlete....it's not about what he is now it's what he could be and if he can put it all together he could be a perennial all-star


Not sure y people were so against him. I get the efficiency issues.... but the guy at the age of 18 has the body and athleticism that many IN THE NBA... would dream of happening. His desire to be a facilitator definitely intrigues me... along with his 2-way potential. Imagine having a rotation of him, chuma and isaac for the future. I'll take that any day as well.

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