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2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45)

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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#141 » by RookieStar » Tue May 4, 2021 1:55 am

You know... weeks ago if we say our tank roster that will play the majority of minutes consists of 2 10-day guys we picked off the streets days ago, with 2 rookies and Bamba... I think we would be scared that the league would penalize us and other teams would complain for that blatant tank job...

yet we still win??? what more do we have to do??? lets not mention the fact that we also sideline our coach for a few ganes...
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#142 » by Knightro » Tue May 4, 2021 1:55 am

crazytown wrote:Welp. There goes our Top 3 pick. Another 10 years of this :noway:


Chance at hitting the lotto before tonight: 52.1%
Chance at hitting the lotto after tonight: 45.2%
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#143 » by SOUL » Tue May 4, 2021 1:56 am

thelead wrote:Your statistical analysis is terrible. I respect you as a poster but the way you're justifying the math is just... silly...

You're basically saying that all you need is one lotto ticket because only one number wins. You can't just casually say, sure it would be nice to have 80% of all the possible outcomes, but only one wins so I'm okay with my 1% chance.

More to your point, this is a 5 player draft. Again, we just dropped from an 80% chance of landing a top 5 pick, to a 47% chance in less than a week. If we drop below Cleveland, it drops to 37%.

Kuminga (likely), Suggs, or Green will be available at 5. The rest of the players are uninspiring.

This tank should have nothing to do with landing the #1 pick because the odds have changed as you mentioned but you have to look at the entire picture (percentages, the players available, etc) to know where you want to land for optimal odds to improve the team quickly.


But it's not justifying anything really. People are crying how this is a top 5 draft and anything after that we should give up as a franchise.

If we finished 2nd and got the 6th pick (2nd most probable outcome), is that a failed season? Yes, right? Because we're saying it's a top 5 draft and we got the 6th pick. We gave ourselves better odds and yet there is still that 50% chance to get the 5th or 6th pick which might just be Kuminga who people don't want either, or whoever is leftover at 6.

My ultimate point is, if we are only concerned about getting a top 4 pick, the math still gives us good odds no matter where we finish as long as it's in the top 5, maybe 6. That's my only point. I would not be making this argument if people were saying there were prospects at 5-6-7 that were also can't miss and we're starting to drift into the territory of making the odds 7 or 8, or on the flipside, if us winning these games gave us miniscule odds (like under 10% to finish top 4).

If ALL we care about is top 4 odds, the Magic still have a very decent chance at getting there. If we are concerned about the floor that we claim is bad after 5, well, even finishing second means we can go under that floor pretty easily.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#144 » by basketballRob » Tue May 4, 2021 1:56 am

Knightro wrote:Some of y'all are in for a seriously rude awakening next year when this team only wins like 30 games.

This is absolutely not a playoff roster unless their top pick is way better than expected.
We have plenty of cap space to add a MLE and TPE, plus Isaac, Fultz, Ross, Ennis, and Okeke. Plus these guys will improve.

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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#145 » by basketballRob » Tue May 4, 2021 1:58 am

Knightro wrote:
KillMonger wrote:i don't think it's a playoff roster either however in the east i think we'll be in that play-in area 10th through 8 seed i believe? with everyone healthy and with clifford trying to squeeze juice from a stone i don't think we'll be anywhere near as bad as we are this season....


Agree to disagree I suppose.

They're almost certainly going to be even younger next year when Ennis, Porter, Randle and possibly Bacon and Ross all depart and are replaced by two lotto picks and other non-veterans.

Young players typically aren't good.
Ross is under contract. We have the Bird rights to those other guys and will likely retain them.

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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#146 » by Ducklett » Tue May 4, 2021 1:59 am

SOUL wrote:
thelead wrote:Your statistical analysis is terrible. I respect you as a poster but the way you're justifying the math is just... silly...

You're basically saying that all you need is one lotto ticket because only one number wins. You can't just casually say, sure it would be nice to have 80% of all the possible outcomes, but only one wins so I'm okay with my 1% chance.

More to your point, this is a 5 player draft. Again, we just dropped from an 80% chance of landing a top 5 pick, to a 47% chance in less than a week. If we drop below Cleveland, it drops to 37%.

Kuminga (likely), Suggs, or Green will be available at 5. The rest of the players are uninspiring.

This tank should have nothing to do with landing the #1 pick because the odds have changed as you mentioned but you have to look at the entire picture (percentages, the players available, etc) to know where you want to land for optimal odds to improve the team quickly.


But it's not justifying anything really. People are crying how this is a top 5 draft and anything after that we should give up as a franchise.

If we finished 2nd and got the 6th pick (2nd most probable outcome), is that a failed season? Yes, right? Because we're saying it's a top 5 draft and we got the 6th pick. We gave ourselves better odds and yet there is still that 50% chance to get the 5th or 6th pick which might just be Kuminga who people don't want either, or whoever is leftover at 6.

My ultimate point is, if we are only concerned about getting a top 4 pick, the math still gives us good odds no matter where we finish as long as it's in the top 5, maybe 6. That's my only point. I would not be making this argument if people were saying there were prospects at 5-6-7 that were also can't miss and we're starting to drift into the territory of making the odds 7 or 8, or on the flipside, if us winning these games gave us miniscule odds (like under 10% to finish top 4).

If ALL we care about is top 4 odds, the Magic still have a very decent chance at getting there. If we are concerned about the floor that we claim is bad after 5, well, even finishing second means we can go under that floor pretty easily.


The players after 5 are REALLY BAD compared to the top 5.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#147 » by Knightro » Tue May 4, 2021 2:00 am

SOUL wrote:But it's not justifying anything really. People are crying how this is a top 5 draft and anything after that we should give up as a franchise.

If we finished 2nd and got the 6th pick (2nd most probable outcome), is that a failed season? Yes, right? Because we're saying it's a top 5 draft and we got the 6th pick. We gave ourselves better odds and yet there is still that 50% chance to get the 5th or 6th pick which might just be Kuminga who people don't want either, or whoever is leftover at 6.

My ultimate point is, if we are only concerned about getting a top 4 pick, the math still gives us good odds no matter where we finish as long as it's in the top 5, maybe 6. That's my only point. I would not be making this argument if people were saying there were prospects at 5-6-7 that were also can't miss and we're starting to drift into the territory of making the odds 7 or 8, or on the flipside, if us winning these games gave us miniscule odds (like under 10% to finish top 4).

If ALL we care about is top 4 odds, the Magic still have a very decent chance at getting there. If we are concerned about the floor that we claim is bad after 5, well, even finishing second means we can go under that floor pretty easily.


I agree wholeheartedly with this.

Just about everyone on this board has stressed repeatedly that they'll pretty much only be happy if the Magic come away with one of 3 players – Cunningham, Suggs or Green (and to a much lesser extent Mobley).

If that is the case, then the only thing that really matters is hitting the lottery. All this complaining and handwringing about raising the floor of the pick really is mostly irrelevant because the vast majority of people will be furious if they end up outside of the top 4 anyway.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#148 » by thelead » Tue May 4, 2021 2:00 am

SOUL wrote:
thelead wrote:Your statistical analysis is terrible. I respect you as a poster but the way you're justifying the math is just... silly...

You're basically saying that all you need is one lotto ticket because only one number wins. You can't just casually say, sure it would be nice to have 80% of all the possible outcomes, but only one wins so I'm okay with my 1% chance.

More to your point, this is a 5 player draft. Again, we just dropped from an 80% chance of landing a top 5 pick, to a 47% chance in less than a week. If we drop below Cleveland, it drops to 37%.

Kuminga (likely), Suggs, or Green will be available at 5. The rest of the players are uninspiring.

This tank should have nothing to do with landing the #1 pick because the odds have changed as you mentioned but you have to look at the entire picture (percentages, the players available, etc) to know where you want to land for optimal odds to improve the team quickly.


But it's not justifying anything really. People are crying how this is a top 5 draft and anything after that we should give up as a franchise.

If we finished 2nd and got the 6th pick (2nd most probable outcome), is that a failed season? Yes, right? Because we're saying it's a top 5 draft and we got the 6th pick. We gave ourselves better odds and yet there is still that 50% chance to get the 5th or 6th pick which might just be Kuminga who people don't want either, or whoever is leftover at 6.

My ultimate point is, if we are only concerned about getting a top 4 pick, the math still gives us good odds no matter where we finish as long as it's in the top 5, maybe 6. That's my only point. I would not be making this argument if people were saying there were prospects at 5-6-7 that were also can't miss and we're starting to drift into the territory of making the odds 7 or 8, or on the flipside, if us winning these games gave us miniscule odds (like under 10% to finish top 4).

If ALL we care about is top 4 odds, the Magic still have a very decent chance at getting there. If we are concerned about the floor that we claim is bad after 5, well, even finishing second means we can go under that floor pretty easily.


But we went from 80% to 47% this week on the top 5 likelihood... how are the odds 'still good'?
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#149 » by Knightro » Tue May 4, 2021 2:02 am

basketballRob wrote:
Knightro wrote:Some of y'all are in for a seriously rude awakening next year when this team only wins like 30 games.

This is absolutely not a playoff roster unless their top pick is way better than expected.
We have plenty of cap space to add a MLE and TPE, plus Isaac, Fultz, Ross, Ennis, and Okeke. Plus these guys will improve.


No disrespect, but you seem to be in a little bit of denial about what the Magic's situation actually is.

This is year 1 of what's going to be a lengthy rebuilding process. The only way it's not lengthy is if the Magic get very lucky and draft a star talent who can drag them out of it.

They're not going to sign veterans. C'mon now. They're highly unlikely to retain the veterans they already have IMO.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#150 » by Knightro » Tue May 4, 2021 2:04 am

thelead wrote:But we went from 80% to 47% this week on the top 5 likelihood... how are the odds 'still good'?


With all due respect, so what?

The vast majority of people would be furious if the Magic were picking 5th anyway because they'd be unlikely to land one of the three guys everyone wants. I don't see many folks banging the drum for Kuminga.

It's top 4 or bust and always has been for pretty much everyone.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#151 » by thelead » Tue May 4, 2021 2:06 am

Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
Knightro wrote:Some of y'all are in for a seriously rude awakening next year when this team only wins like 30 games.

This is absolutely not a playoff roster unless their top pick is way better than expected.
We have plenty of cap space to add a MLE and TPE, plus Isaac, Fultz, Ross, Ennis, and Okeke. Plus these guys will improve.


No disrespect, but you seem to be in a little bit of denial about what the Magic's situation actually is.

This is year 1 of what's going to be a lengthy rebuilding process. The only way it's not lengthy is if the Magic get very lucky and draft a star talent who can drag them out of it.

They're not going to sign veterans. C'mon now. They're highly unlikely to retain the veterans they already have IMO.

I don't think we'll be a playoff team but I think you're giving too much credit to Vuc. I think we're a ~30-35 win team next year if healthy even without a draft pick. Just removing Bacon will improve this team by a few wins.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#152 » by thelead » Tue May 4, 2021 2:07 am

Knightro wrote:
thelead wrote:But we went from 80% to 47% this week on the top 5 likelihood... how are the odds 'still good'?


With all due respect, so what?

The vast majority of people would be furious if the Magic were picking 5th anyway because they'd be unlikely to land one of the three guys everyone wants. I don't see many folks banging the drum for Kuminga.

It's top 4 or bust and always has been for pretty much everyone.

So the defense has moved to 'so what?'.... I win :lol:
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#153 » by SOUL » Tue May 4, 2021 2:11 am

thelead wrote:But we went from 80% to 47% this week on the top 5 likelihood... how are the odds 'still good'?


Our floor odds are worse. Our ceiling odds are barely worse. The second one is the one we should be concerned about, right? Getting one of those names everybody has been talking about.

Finishing 2nd-5th right now in the tank race is basically jostling to give themselves a floor of 5th/6th compared to a higher ceiling. I know for damn sure you haven't been on the tank train just to get Kuminga to drop to us.

The point that I continue to make is that we would be disappointed finishing 5th/6th and accepting whoever is not picked, and that can happen very easily finishing 2nd. I get that there are better odds the higher you finish, and yes, we could get lucky and maybe Suggs/Green slide down, but if our ultimate hope is for other teams to not pick players.. it's a bad spot to be in.

Us winning has damaged our floor way more than it has affected our ceiling. I am worried 10x more about the ceiling than the floor.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#154 » by Knightro » Tue May 4, 2021 2:13 am

thelead wrote:So the defense has moved to 'so what?'.... I win :lol:


I'm simply pointing out that pretty much no one wants the Magic to pick 5th anyway. Kuminga hasn't even been considered by most anyone in the draft thread.

So if no one wants to pick 5th, then what's the difference picking 6th or 7th?

It's always been top 4 or bust.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#155 » by thelead » Tue May 4, 2021 2:14 am

I really want Cade, Green, or Suggs but I think the gulf between Kuminga's potential and someone like Barnes is VAST. I guess maybe that's were other differ. I can stomach moving forward with Kuminga but will be gutted if we have to draft Barnes or Moody.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#156 » by Kent » Tue May 4, 2021 2:14 am

We've tied the T-Mac-led (and T-Mac-only) 2003-04 Magic in wins (21-61) in this shortened season.

In the words of David Steele... "Is this anything?"
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#157 » by Knightro » Tue May 4, 2021 2:17 am

thelead wrote:I really want Cade, Green, or Suggs but I think the gulf between Kuminga's potential and someone like Barnes is VAST. I guess maybe that's were other differ. I can stomach moving forward with Kuminga but will be gutted if we have to draft Barnes or Moody.


Serious or hyperbole?

I actually like Kuminga more than most on here seem to, but I'm certainly not freaking out about missing out on him and being "stuck" with Barnes or Moody.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#158 » by RookieStar » Tue May 4, 2021 2:18 am

Kent wrote:We've tied the T-Mac-led (and T-Mac-only) 2003-04 Magic in wins (21-61) in this shortened season.

In the words of David Steele... "Is this anything?"


Yes... we again get #1 and draft our superstar to lead us to the finals before wantibg the bright lights and demanding a trade to a bigger market even though we bent over backwards and lubed ourselves up for said superstar
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#159 » by SOUL » Tue May 4, 2021 2:18 am

thelead wrote:I really want Cade, Green, or Suggs but I think the gulf between Kuminga's potential and someone like Barnes is VAST. I guess maybe that's were other differ. I can stomach moving forward with Kuminga but will be gutted if we have to draft Barnes or Moody.


Then yes, that is a concern for sure if that's your worry. I'm just seeing people saying "bye bye at a top pick" and that's not really what's actually happening. It's saying bye bye to a Kuminga prospect and hello to a Barnes type prospect as our most likely scenario as far as odds and math go, but the ceiling part is still very much in play and we'll need luck.

The fear of the Bulls pick getting top 4 just goes to show that we're just not hopeful for us getting lucky as a franchise since they have even worse odds at a top 4, but still decent at 30%.
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Re: 2020-2021 Regular Season Game 65: Orlando Magic (20-44) at Detroit Pistons (19-45) 

Post#160 » by thelead » Tue May 4, 2021 2:21 am

Knightro wrote:
thelead wrote:I really want Cade, Green, or Suggs but I think the gulf between Kuminga's potential and someone like Barnes is VAST. I guess maybe that's were other differ. I can stomach moving forward with Kuminga but will be gutted if we have to draft Barnes or Moody.


Serious or hyperbole?

I actually like Kuminga more than most on here seem to, but I'm certainly not freaking out about missing out on him and being "stuck" with Barnes or Moody.

I'm serious.
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